@jjg...dude, it was all in my original post.
You were referring to 2014 to now and my simple answer is this:
you are talking about investing (dcaing) $47K (nine years) during that period to accumulate 45 btc.
I did not invest anything close to that particular number, but if I take my investments (unevenly spread from 2014-2023) as X and calculate from there, then, in proportion, I got 113-14 BTC accumulated (surely, the actual number is completely different because 47K is a random number as well).
113 is a much bigger number than 45, is it not?
I don't profess an investment acumen, mostly it is due to bulk purchase earlier than later.
People who bristle at mining have no clue about bitcoin. Bitcoin's heart is block validation via mining. Anything else, and it is NOT the same.
You still seem to be fighting the hypothetical... yet you are implying that whatever you did outperformed regular DCA by 150%... and if you are saying that you spent even less dollars, but you still accumulated 150% more BTC? I am having difficulties believing that.. or how it might be applied to normies to be able to accomplish the same (a replicable model).
I think the point Biodom is making is that this isn't applicable to most normies. That's why it's generally not recommended to trade Bitocin. But the idea of a "normie" getting 150% more Bitcoin without DCA is totally believable, whether it be with bulk buying much earlier around 2014 (and not selling) or otherwise a few bulk buys/sells near the highs and the lows, whether it be by skill or luck, or a simple strategy. One example that doesn't take much thought process (or effort), even if a relative amount of stress, would be respecting the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin. It's not something I believe will work forever, but if you had followed this until now you'd have considerably more BTC over the past 8 or so years than DCA. Eventually you'll probably lose some coin over it, but likely it'll also only be excess profit to the satoshis you already made.
For example selling end of 2013 at $740, buying back beginning of 2015 at $319. That would have increased your stash by 131%. But also it's fair to assume that the 4-year cycle theory wasn't really established then first time around, so instead look at 2018 when it was more respected (tried and tested) as well as looking likely to occur. That would have been a sell at $13.9K (end of 2017) and a buy at $3.7K (beginning of 2019) --- that alone is an increase of 275%. Even the most recent cycle with selling at the end of 2021 at $46.6K and buying back beginning of 2023 at $16.5K would have increased your Bicoin holding by 182%. So with the past two cycles combined, ie since 2014, that would be a cumulative increase of 500%. I'm sure very few achieved this, but I don't doubt that some normies did if they worshiped the 4-year cycle.
Then you get down to when this cycle inevitably breaks, because over time it becomes less reliable. You could lose 50 % of your BTC and still be up 250%. Or even lose 75% and still be up 125%. Either scenario, even one that is a lucky break-even, then clearly you should call it quits. But until a winning strategy fails, there isn't much reason to abandon it. I'm sure there are other relatively simple strategies too that normies have used to increase satoshis (golden crosses & death crosses comes to mind investor wise), this is simply the one that comes to mind as probably the most reliable. Neither trying to sell tops or bottoms, but simply timing the market with time - not price. Like it or lump it, but you don't need to be a hedge fund or trading bot to outperform the market, even if it's generally advised (for good reason) not to do so.
The final reason a normie might not want to DCA per week, or even per month, could be simply based on the effort of transferring funds to an exchange, withdrawing to wallet, maintaining a portfollio/spreadhseet of all buys and sells in order to track progress. Over all, it's a lot of work. Whereas selling and buying only once each per 4 years actually sounds like a lot less effort! Whether it works better or not...
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