Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[John Abraham]

It is true that Shitcoin will have no role but Bitcoin will reign. For example, banks are being destroyed, people are seeing shortages. But holding assets in Bitcoin is not a disadvantage but an improvement. So hold bitcoin life will be successful.

It might be true that bitcoin accumulators and holders will be more advantaged than those people who are not accumulating/holding bitcoin...  So in that sense, it seems good to start to think about getting off of zero and also figuring out a strategy in which you can accumulate bitcoin at your own pace.. but of course, there are no guarantees that you will be successful, either.

If he considers Bitcoin as an investment (As I do). He has to understand risk management and be aware of possible loss. You could gain or lose in investment. This is why it's an investment. If you plan to hold for a few years, go for it. You don't have to think about losing. Just don't sell if the price is lower than your buying price. You don't have to understand rocket science to accumulate BTC. DCA is the best method ever to accumulate your BTC. Buy more when the market is down. The most relaxing thing is, No one can print Bitcoin out of thin air (you know who does that^[government]). So, Your satoshi will be worth more and more over time.

You are not saying anything wrong John Abraham - and you are actually are probably correct about all of these ideas being somewhat common-sensical and easy to accomplish, so long as persistence and consistency is followed - but in actual practice, they are way easier to say than to actually put into practice.

It's true that saying something is more accessible than doing it in practice. But we are talking about investing in Bitcoin and following the DCA method. I don't think you have to know rocket science to follow some simple steps. Moreover, we are living an easy life compared to the old days. Remember how hard it was to use Bitcoin in the old days? The user had to run a node to use Bitcoin. We are doing nothing compared to them.

Perhaps one of the most frequent problems that people have is a kind of failure to invest that goes along with a kind of eagerness to either take out profits from time to time and/or failure to keep investing in order to be able to enjoy some of the benefits of compounding, which many of us likely realize that the compounding has exponential aspects that fold upon themselves, but still are likely to take more than just a few years to play out.. so compounding gets bigger and Bigger and BIGGER .. so the first few times that you might get a doubling of your investment portfolio (whether in nominal terms or in real terms) might feel good but then when such doubling comes down the road later, the amounts can become somewhat staggering, especially if you might have had several doublings stacked on top of each other.. and the mind becomes somewhat unable to recognize and appreciate how those amounts had ended up growing so much even though they might have had started out with ongoing small, persistent and consistent contributions that might not even have had been very noticeable while they were taking place in the earlier stages of the investment... so there are a lot of occasions that people will pull out way too much of their value from their investment(s) - whether BTC or otherwise - and pull out their principle too early and thereafter fail to experience the various doublings (or the exponential/compounding aspects of their investments)...  

so that is the problem with failing to invest enough..

You have to know the management. I never suggest anyone invest a considerable amount. I suggest investing the amount that may not care too much. Let's say someone makes $100 per month. I won't suggest he invest more than $20. He might not care about this money. Always keep some fiat for emergencies so you don't have to touch your BTC when you need money. I mean, Why would you sell your coin at a loss? Of course, if you need emergency cash, You will likely sell your coins. If you sell your coins at a loss, it's an actual loss. But, if you keep holding, that's an unrealized loss. You will eventually recover your position.

and another angle is investing too much and getting too far over one's skiis.. and so over investing has to do with poor cashflow management (and sure sometimes bad psychology too), and if there are not enough preparations for safeguarding various times that cashflows can become short, and then there are times that these people are forced to have  to cash out of some or all of their investment at a time that is not of their own choosing because they failed to adequately account for cashflow shortages down the road that might come from investing in bitcoin today... so then maybe the cashflow shortage ends up coming in 6 months because there was a failure to keep an adequate cash (liquidity) cushion or to keep some cash in locations that could be drawn upon during those later down the road cashflow shortage periods that are quite likely to come, and some aspects of the cash shortages might be foreseeable and some aspects might not be foreseeable.

Here, I would say the same thing as I said in already. It's all about money and risk management. Nobody knows your worth other than you. Don't take suggestions from anyone about how much you should invest and how much is not. Work on your money and risk management. It's not wise to invest high and then panic. If I know I won't have any issues if I lose thousand dollars, I can invest in Bitcoin without fear if I have patience.

Many of us should be way more informed about what to do and how to do it after we have been doing it for 4-10 years, than someone who is just starting out, so then if we have been investing for 4-10 years or longer, then our accumulated position might contribute to our needing to revise our approach based on our having more assets (hopefully including a decent portion of BTC) to help inform us better how to continue to go forward from there, whether it is continuing to accumulate BTC or going more into a maintenance mode, rather than an accumulation mode... and even reallocation decisions might become more relevant for a 4-10 year (or more) veteran as compared to the beginner who might not have anything to reallocate because s/he has not built hardly anything materially meaningful yet... getting up to 1 year or more living expenses (or cashflow) into your investment portfolio starts to become significant/meaningful as compared to the beginner who might contemplate whether to invest 10% to 25% from one pay check that is hardly shit in terms of portfolio building... because 10% to 25% of one paycheck might only constitute somewhere in the ballpark of 1/100th to 1/500th of the annual cashflow... so even by itself, the one investment might seem like a large amount, but it is not really adding up to a significant/meaningful amount of money until it gets to a sizable amount in terms of what that specific person's annual cashflow situation is currently expected to be and then also accounting for what such cashflow expectations might be in the future as well.. There are quite a few places in which normies can end up making mistakes in these various calculations regarding what to do and how BIG of a position size might be reasonable in order to attempt to go in the right direction in terms of accomplishing their goals, whether that is merely to improve their living circumstances, get to fuck-you status or some variation of those kinds of considerations that might merely be to maintain their current living status but not having to work (which is actually an improvement.. hahahahaha.. keep the same living standard, but not having to work.. doesn't that sound good.. and easy peasy to accomplish?)..

Too many words, and I don't understand where to start. LOL. I agree with what you have said. No, I don't think it's an easy peasy lemon squeezy thing  . You know that little Kid  . Sometimes reallocation could fuck you up. But it won't last long if you can profit at a reasonable price. It depends on the situation. Buyback at a low price will surely help you accumulate more Satoshi!

[Richy_T]

Something up with the image proxy?

[Richy_T]

Sub 27k again

[Volgastallion]

What about the US government selling BTC.

https://twitter.com/WhaleWire/status/1656353977821196288


I have one strange question about this, taking out the actual cojuncture.

If US goverment sell BTC who buy it?, the people? if this yes, so the BTCs returns to the communitty and with that the "power" so.... if the government its really against the BTC its not better for them to confiscate them and never sell? and dont show you like another player in the game?

I know a lot of you can say to me, but its not the federal goverment its the justice selling to pay X creditors in some bankrupcy. And that can be ok, but we cant know.

EDIT: seems like its fake, but still intereseting the question i wrote.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

A few days ago I placed an order to purchase 2 physical BTC coins online. Today I got these coins in my hand and I really like to see the bitcoins. This is the first time in my life I have seen physical bitcoins for which the love for bitcoins has blossomed from the heart. My long time wish was to see BTC coins in reality, today that long time wish has been fulfilled. I have deep hope and love for Bitcoin.

There is no such thing as physical BTC. Enjoy your toy coins.

Not exactly. If you print the seed words of an address holding one bitcoin, it would be (like) a physical bitcoin. TBH

What about the US government selling BTC.

https://twitter.com/WhaleWire/status/1656353977821196288


I have one strange question about this, taking out the actual cojuncture.

If US goverment sell BTC who buy it?, the people? if this yes, so the BTCs returns to the communitty and with that the "power" so.... if the government its really against the BTC its not better for them to confiscate them and never sell? and dont show you like another player in the game?

I know a lot of you can say to me, but its not the federal goverment its the justice selling to pay X creditors in some bankrupcy. And that can be ok, but we cant know.

EDIT: seems like its fake, but still intereseting the question i wrote.

The cost of operations to "seize" these coins, the damage to the tax system... all this and more wants to be accounted.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual.  almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen.  On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Perhaps one of the most frequent problems that people have is a kind of failure to invest that goes along with a kind of eagerness to either take out profits from time to time and/or failure to keep investing in order to be able to enjoy some of the benefits of compounding, which many of us likely realize that the compounding has exponential aspects that fold upon themselves, but still are likely to take more than just a few years to play out.. so compounding gets bigger and Bigger and BIGGER .. so the first few times that you might get a doubling of your investment portfolio (whether in nominal terms or in real terms) might feel good but then when such doubling comes down the road later, the amounts can become somewhat staggering, especially if you might have had several doublings stacked on top of each other.. and the mind becomes somewhat unable to recognize and appreciate how those amounts had ended up growing so much even though they might have had started out with ongoing small, persistent and consistent contributions that might not even have had been very noticeable while they were taking place in the earlier stages of the investment... so there are a lot of occasions that people will pull out way too much of their value from their investment(s) - whether BTC or otherwise - and pull out their principle too early and thereafter fail to experience the various doublings (or the exponential/compounding aspects of their investments)...  

so that is the problem with failing to invest enough..

True. When it comes to Bitcoin, the progressions are roughly geometric (i.e., doublings/time unit), so starting off with a BIG chunk you end up with BIGⁿ, which can become massive if you're willing to HoDL and wait.

[...]

So, even though I agree that the principles of getting richie are easy peasy... but the actual ongoing, persistent and consistent putting them to into practice and tailoring them to individual circumstances is not as easy as you seem to be suggesting them to be.... even guys (and gals) who have been attempting to employ well-balanced practices for years can get themselves into pickle situations - and sometimes these same experienced folks miscalculate the employment of sound strategies may well have to do with figuring out position size rather than all or nothing kind of thinking... especially when it comes to something like bitcoin that some folks might give a thumbs up or a thumbs down, and perhaps there might be some kind of need to still invest at least 1% even with a thumbs down view of bitcoin, and even with a thumbs up viewpoint there still might be a need to make sure not to invest more than 25% into bitcoin, and I am not even going to claim to know what any individual's position size should be, even if my feelings are somewhat strong about getting off zero  and even if I am o.k. with starting out by telling a newbie to consider between 1% to 25% to be a prudent/reasonable starting point for their BTC investment, and in the end they are responsible for figuring within that range where their situation might dictate that they should be allocating and how they are going to manage building their position over time, how long it will take to build their initial position and then try to employ  maintenance once they have accumulated and reached their target levels - and of course, trying to keep learning along the way, too...

[...]

Surely, one should instinctively feel reluctant to put all their eggs in one basket, but this is no ordinary basket. I'm not suggesting to put 100% of one's investment capital into Bitcoin, but history has shown that no Bitcoin investor has ended up at a loss when HoDLing for a sufficient amount of time (several years). So, for those considering a long-term investment strategy, I would be tempted to suggest a higher Bitcoin investment allocation than your 25% upper limit above. Perhaps.

Well, come to think of it, a 25% Bitcoin investment allocation, when compared to 50%, would only delay a target gain by one average doubling period, which can be as short as 1 year. So, 25% is not too bad as a 'safe' upper limit after all. The important thing is to get off zero quickly, and work your way up as high as you feel comfortable with. And hey, these are not stonks, be willing to take a little more risk!

Not financial advice, but I wish I had gone all-in in 2015 though... Easy to say after the fact of course... Shoulda, coulda, woulda...

[pixie85]

If US goverment sell BTC who buy it?, the people? if this yes, so the BTCs returns to the communitty and with that the "power" so.... if the government its really against the BTC its not better for them to confiscate them and never sell? and dont show you like another player in the game?

That tweet is fear mongering at its finest. He assumes that if gov sold x BTC and owns 10x BTC, it's going to sell that 10x and it's going to sell it all at once. We don't know if, when and how much of it is going to be sold, but he's telling everyone that it's going to lead to 10k. He's spreading FUD probably as he's shorting bitcoin with leverage.

The governments can buy as much BTC as they want because they can print money but it's better for PR not to do so and instead sell bitcoin. They used to do it on auctions but during the banking crisis it's better to put pressure on BTC so it doesn't look as tempting.

just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual.  almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen.  On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...

The 2021 bull market was expected after the halving and it did arrive. Halving was in May and in November we were already at a new ATH.

Are you saying that people weren't expecting a pump in 2020 after halving?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

[rdbase]

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Excited to announce that I’ve hired a new CEO for X/Twitter. She will be starting in ~6 weeks! My role will transition to being exec chair & CTO, overseeing product, software & sysops."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1656748197308674048

So he is handing over the daily tasks over to an unnamed individual so far.
Interesting to see how this works out for her.

All of his past and current exploits in crypto: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5336007.msg62230009#msg62230009

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual.  almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen.  On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...

The 2021 bull market was expected after the halving and it did arrive. Halving was in May and in November we were already at a new ATH.

the point for me is when after the halving.
Last time it started actually earlier than expected (not around eoy like usual).

Are you saying that people weren't expecting a pump in 2020 after halving?

I'm saying that with every cycle it gets more unlikely that the bullrun follows the expected schedule with evermore people expecting said schedule.
You could already see that the last bullrun started a bit earlier, and that it had an almost double top. quite different from what most people expected.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get what most people expect this time. But what do I know...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[FinePoine0]

Something up with the image proxy?

Development working running ....

[Volgastallion]

just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual.  almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen.  On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...

The 2021 bull market was expected after the halving and it did arrive. Halving was in May and in November we were already at a new ATH.

the point for me is when after the halving.
Last time it started actually earlier than expected (not around eoy like usual).

Are you saying that people weren't expecting a pump in 2020 after halving?

I'm saying that with every cycle it gets more unlikely that the bullrun follows the expected schedule with evermore people expecting said schedule.
You could already see that the last bullrun started a bit earlier, and that it had an almost double top. quite different from what most people expected.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get what most people expect this time. But what do I know...

Man, i think you have reason but i have to say one thing.

One of the most important ideas in the markets and stocks is

" Never try to time the market "

And everybody try to do that, and in the long run they fall into the trap, i think it was WB who say, "Wallstreet makes money when you operate and lose when you dont".

So the less you try to catch the best point of bear to buy or the best point in the bull run to sell, better for you.

In a few words, just HODL and buy when you can, no more, and again DONT TRY TO TIME THE MARKET.


One more and last thing.

Poor chartbuddy, with the images dont working he cant share the price.