just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual. almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen. On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...
The 2021 bull market was expected after the halving and it did arrive. Halving was in May and in November we were already at a new ATH.
the point for me is
when after the halving.
Last time it started actually earlier than expected (not around eoy like usual).
Are you saying that people weren't expecting a pump in 2020 after halving?
I'm saying that with every cycle it gets more unlikely that the bullrun follows the expected schedule with evermore people expecting said schedule.
You could already see that the last bullrun started a bit earlier, and that it had an almost double top. quite different from what most people expected.
So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get what most people expect this time. But what do I know...
Interesting...
So this is what I wrote in another thread
Have you noticed that there are 2 main types of analysts?
Type 1: The pattern is repeating.
These guys look for something in the past and think it's going to happen again. Some examples of their thinking:
Last time the bitcoin bear market took 400 days, so we're going to be in a bear market for at least that long.
In the last bull market bitcoin made 20x the former ATH so this time it's gong to do the same.
Last time bitcoin lost 75% in the bear market so this time it will also do it.
Type 2: This time is different.
These guys contradict type 1 analysts by looking for things that can mess up their predictions.
But this time we're in a recession.
But this time we're also in a stock bear market.
But there's a war in Ukraine.
But this time bitcoin can't go 20x because there's too many altcoins that take away from the total market cap.
In the last bear market there was no FTX.
A few minutes later I go through the thread and find exactly what I was thinking about. The "this time it's going to be different" prediction.
So you support the theory that we can't all be rich, so if there's a large enough group thinking that bitcoin will go up, it will go down, so that the majority can be squashed and the one that swims against the current can win. I could give you a number of cases in the history of bitcoin where this wasn't the case. For instance, after falling 60-40k, at least half of the traders felt like this couldn't be the end and more likely a correction before another move up, and it was. If you bought at 30k, or held through the correction, there was a new ATH just around the corner. It wasn't the high most of us expected, but it was a new high.
Personally, I'm not looking for patterns. I think that each time is different. If you want to be specific, each bull and bear cycle lasted for a different number of days, each cycle had a different exact value, each had a different percentage value gained/lost, even the transaction cost, number of addresses, coin distribution among wallets, number of exchanges involved and all that was different. We even followed the 200 week MA in all cycles, but this one.
This looks to me like a final attempt to put a pressure on the price and capitulate on the mood. When the mood is bullish for too long, it's easy to turn it bearish. People become comfortable with the price and every 10% down can throw them off balance and you can see this in the threads they're making in Bitcoin Discussion and Speculation. Doom and gloom everywhere.
So how's everyone enjoying "Sell in May and go away" so far?
Fun fun, amiright?
The forum became more active. People were probably bored with the price and they poked bitcoin with a stick too many times so it fell over
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