Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[uki]

Have a look on this log log plot and channel.

The price is log as you normally compare gains in percentage.

The time, from about Aug 2010 to now, is in log scale as well i.o. to account for the exponential growth.

Data are from blockchain.info


-snip-

In the lower right corner you see same log log for gold. from 1969 to about 1990 you might just compare the price incease, which was mostly same shape as for bitcoin but way lower exponent.

I believe in that chart, and here comes some questions and a small favor

1. The favor : Could you please edit the chart with time scale to see when we can hit $10K and $1MM ?

2. I believe in "History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes", what makes you sure that we will hit $10K and $1MM ?

Tech Analysis is no guarantee...

To 1. You see that there are two moves. One slow growth and sometimes hyberbolic to  2 characteristic maxima 35 and 1200. I tried to mark the 3rd in same distance, which is 80k. The run start to 80k is hard to find and so the 10k first hitting even harder...

2. alert is on only once the lower bound gets hurt

One more thing:
please google ted talk on the exponential function and watch the video.
The main point is that the exponential growth cannot last endlessly.
There is always a limiting factor that stops it.
Take an example of colony of bacteria. They multiplicate exponentially, or nearly that, as long as there is enough food supply.
Once there is more bacteria than food, the exponential growth stops.

[JimboToronto]

The main point is that the exponential growth cannot last endlessly.
There is always a limiting factor that stops it.
Take an example of colony of bacteria. They multiplicate exponentially, or nearly that, as long as there is enough food supply.
Once there is more bacteria than food, the exponential growth stops.

Yes. This is why it forms an S curve.

It only grows exponentially until it goes "vertical" and then it tapers off exponentially to the saturation point.

Luckily Bitcoin adoption is far from going vertical, let alone reaching saturation. Exponential growth a while longer is a reasonable expectation.

[savetherainforest]

Have a look on this log log plot and channel.

The price is log as you normally compare gains in percentage.

The time, from about Aug 2010 to now, is in log scale as well i.o. to account for the exponential growth.

It predicts a top of 80000 by end of 2018 and reaching 1Mio not before 2025...

Data are from blockchain.info




In the lower right corner you see same log log for gold. from 1969 to about 1990 you might just compare the price increase, which was mostly same shape as for bitcoin but way lower exponent.

So.... we gonna have "millions" in 8-9 years by 2025! ... Nice! Very sweet & tender!  

(*edit: btw Roach... I know the "illuminati" banking zionists pay someone to detele our comments with "you want f#@k?" )  

[uki]

The main point is that the exponential growth cannot last endlessly.
There is always a limiting factor that stops it.
Take an example of colony of bacteria. They multiplicate exponentially, or nearly that, as long as there is enough food supply.
Once there is more bacteria than food, the exponential growth stops.

Yes. This is why it forms an S curve.

It only grows exponentially until it goes "vertical" and then it tapers off exponentially to the saturation point.

Luckily Bitcoin adoption is far from going vertical, let alone reaching saturation. Exponential growth a while longer is a reasonable expectation.

Well, that yet remains to be proven how reasonable assumption it is. Looking at the market cap, and looking at the prediction for the 2018, it means quite a lot of new money flowing into Bitcoin in the next two years. Not sure if the adoption will keep the necessary pace to achieve it.

[kurious]

The main point is that the exponential growth cannot last endlessly.
There is always a limiting factor that stops it.
Take an example of colony of bacteria. They multiplicate exponentially, or nearly that, as long as there is enough food supply.
Once there is more bacteria than food, the exponential growth stops.

Yes. This is why it forms an S curve.

It only grows exponentially until it goes "vertical" and then it tapers off exponentially to the saturation point.

Luckily Bitcoin adoption is far from going vertical, let alone reaching saturation. Exponential growth a while longer is a reasonable expectation.

Well, that yet remains to be proven how reasonable assumption it is. Looking at the market cap, and looking at the prediction for the 2018, it means quite a lot of new money flowing into Bitcoin in the next two years. Not sure if the adoption will keep the necessary pace to achieve it.

It does look pie in the sky right now...

I'd like to see some sort of scaling consensus to make sure we don't drop back below 700 first..

80,000 bucks in 2 years?  Ahem....  A LOT of things would need to go VERY right.

[DaRude]

.....

its a very complex issue.... with no clear cut right answer.

+1

This I can agree with.  I have read and read as much as I can, but all I can conclude is that I don't know the right answer.

Try to see if you can find a single good argument against SegWit or LN. Free instant transactions sound terrible right?
Now put yourself in the miners shoes, where you just invested millions in these mining farms and the only way you make money is by mining blocks. Bigger blocks = more money. Now i wonder why would miners want unlimited blocks hmmmm  

[r0ach]

Not sure if I remember correctly, but I seem to recall price being down last black friday, while this one had a brief $9 pump.

[Killerpotleaf]

Not sure if I remember correctly, but I seem to recall price being down last black friday, while this one had a brief $9 pump.

the show is called
" BU and Core Forking All night "
wanna buy a ticket?

2 for 1 special limited time. 

[Hunyadi]

Today my son drew me this picture at school. Is it a sign? or is that a black wall  

Rorschach test

[uki]

Not sure if I remember correctly, but I seem to recall price being down last black friday, while this one had a brief $9 pump.

I wouldn't forcefully look for a relation between things that are not related (as many do in this forum). Bitcoin doesn't care about black Fridays and alike, as currently what is mainly behind its move are the speculative pumps and dumps. I don't see much sense trying to relate such events to a particular day, because pumps happen independently from that, and thus, it is nearly impossible to say, there is a next black Friday coming the price will drop (or rise).

[bitebits]

Not sure if I remember correctly, but I seem to recall price being down last black friday, while this one had a brief $9 pump.

I wouldn't forcefully look for a relation between things that are not related (as many do in this forum). Bitcoin doesn't care about black Fridays and alike, as currently what is mainly behind its move are the speculative pumps and dumps. I don't see much sense trying to relate such events to a particular day, because pumps happen independently from that, and thus, it is nearly impossible to say, there is a next black Friday coming the price will drop (or rise).

It tends to do the opposite of what the majority thinks, for short term $ profit obviously.

[savetherainforest]

Today my son drew me this picture at school. Is it a sign? or is that a black wall  

Rorschach test

Well Played!!!  

[molecular]

Today my son drew me this picture at school. Is it a sign? or is that a black wall  

Could be a black wall but it doesn't look strong enough to stop the rocket powering through it on its moon bound mission

most definitely the rocket is under heavy flak attack (the black dots)

[molecular]

id like to remind everyone that

SegWit is great for Bitcoin. It brings more transaction throughput, fixes malleability, defrags the UTXO set, makes hardware wallets more secure and most importantly, it enables Lightning which will bring instant low cost Bitcoin transactions to the world. The team at BTCC have been working hard at making their exchange and mining pool services SegWit ready, and everyone else should do the same.

You are correct but people are forgetting one major thing; Bitcoin cannot go mainstream with just bigger blocks. You need something like 1gig blocks to make a shot for it, the internet cant even handle that. Hardforking from 1mb all the way up to 1gig is just a no-go zone, Lightning will fulfill that job because you really want to have high capacity when ''monkey see monkey do'' situation arrives.

This is correct, but: why stop natural growth at 1 MB? It's not like we'll be at 1 MB for 10 years and then BOOOOM, we scale to global level overnight.

[g3rszpi]

Do you think we will break 750 in the next week?

[savetherainforest]

Do you think we will break 750 in the next week?

It will go 10$ per week on average from now on... If it goes 5x / 10x more than that in a short period of time... make sure to gamble! ... Correction in 1-2 week from 765$ to 745$ ...

[Denker]

Do you think we will break 750 in the next week?

Regarding bitcoinaverage we are hovering around that 750 level since november 17th.
We might break it, or we won't.
Some say we've created a double top and will see some correction.Others say it doesn't matter and we will continue moving up.
I myself don't really care cause I'm long and don't have any open positions at the moment.So in short term we might go down a bit, but in long term we will continue heading to the 4 figures again.

[DARKHOLDER]

Do you think we will break 750 in the next week?

Last chance to sell about 730$...its going down...

[kurious]

Do you think we will break 750 in the next week?

It will go 10$ per week on average from now on... If it goes 5x / 10x more than that in a short period of time... make sure to gamble! ... Correction in 1-2 week from 765$ to 745$ ...

Seriously?  You sound very certain, please do tell on what basis you are so sure?

[DARKHOLDER]

sitting and thinking what is the point in the huobi buy and sell those 423 btc...in 1 minute there was 2 time sell that amount of btc and couple seconds later the same amount was buy(maybe for himself )....is the chinese just in my opinion- stupid simple make up the volume? or is there some other reason? Because if there we excludes those 400+ btc trades then chinese exchange is like bitfinex in volume...lol