Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ibian]

Super exciting day for me. I got fiat on the way to buy back what I sold earlier, got people wanting to buy, people wanting to sell, and not enough liquidity to cover it all. Let's do this again!

[1713584804]

1713584804

[JayJuanGee]

disclaimer:

just woke up...

i lost huge

 

but i agree with the fact that their impact is overestimated.

Lost just over half of the BTC I made on the pump..

shrugs..

You mean that you lost the fiat value of your BTC?  You did not lose actual BTC because of a price drop?

  A drop in the price of BTC should result in having more BTC, rather than less, and contrary a rise in the price of BTC should result in having more fiat, no?

[toknormal]

Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything

[bitebits]

Interesting observation toknormal, thanks for sharing.

So basically you are calling bottom. Correct?

[JayJuanGee]

This is certainly a "buyable" dip, yet the only question is at what point(s) to lock in the buy(s).

All my buys are already locked in. I buy straight into paper wallets and have no desire to sell any unless I absolutely must.

My bitcoins are my nest egg for comfort in my old age. When they hit $10k I might spend my original investment on something cool.

Any real deep dip is buyable to me, as long as it's not just a correction to where it was a day or two earlier.

For example, this past week has had 3 buyable dips, after about 2 months without one. The last one was November 3.

If the price keeps going down, I'll keep reallocating funds to buy more.

I completely agree with your overall philosophy, and I think that it is a pretty solid one in bitcoin...

I am only quibbling a bit with which price points to determine buying..... and yeah, with everyone they are going to determine this in a bit of a different way depending on their own personal particulars.

For example, in the past week prices dipped by nearly $400 - so each time there is a kind of leg of a dip, which is buyable.  I believe that this current one is about the fifth leg down (sure others calculate these legs a bit differently, depending on your ability to buy immediately or even which buy avenues that you have at your disposal).  

In my cases, I have preset staggered buy downs that are currently about $20 intervals, but when I see a dramatic decrease in the price I sometimes will buy an additional amount immediately at various price points that I believe could be in the neighborhood of the bottom for that "dip".   But if the price continues to go down, I like to have additional dollars to buy more.... and my quibbling with you is merely to assert that there can be some dilemna and indecision in attempt to determine at what stages buy "dips"

[Killerpotleaf]

what price do you poeple believe we'll "stabilize" on, assuming this madness eventually stops..

[toknormal]

So basically you are calling bottom. Correct?

Well according to this analysis the bottom is around 5200, with a sharp retrace back up to the propellor "nose" which would be around 6700 CNY (~$900-$950 dollars), followed by a slow retrace back down to half the lower propellor blade (5900 CNY = $750) and then starting the next bubble from there which may go to $2000 by July.

Of course, that's just according to this analysis. You need to look at several different perspectives to get a fuller picture of the possibilities because there's no telling if this pattern will be broken or not.

It's one theory = we can follow it and see.

[osmotic]

what price do you poeple believe we'll "stabilize" on, assuming this madness eventually stops..

I believe at about here $755 to $790.

[yugo23]

is crypto done?? 

I would love to see everyone believing so.

Everytime the whole population starts screaming that it's the end of btc, it's a long and painful moment with the price going down and down, but it also means you can buy coins cheap as fuck for when the price goes up again, and until now it has always happened.

The most funny thing is how some people are completely panicked while not even a month ago the price was yet 200$ lower.
If we break the 500$ I'll start worrying a bit. Until then it's just noise.

[alphahacktivist]

WAR ON CHINA NOW!!

No we should thank them. They are cleaning up their exchanges and at the same time the risk of China baning bitcoin is highly reduced. If you wanted bitcoin to ever succeed this was the best that could happen imo

Care to elaborate please ?

Sure..

Nothing that comes out of china can be believed.. Not their news, not their fiat exchange rates, not their crypto exchange rates or the action of their exchanges in the market.. Maybe not even their miners?

What does china do?
They do everything they can to make people THINK that they have this great massive influence, make people believe that china is in control with their grandiose claims..

And then what? Use their exaggerated influence to MANIPULATE..
Their actual pull is much less than they make it out to be..
I wouldn't even put it past the chinese gov or the pboc to be IN ON IT because everything about the entire chinese economy is FAKE..
Propaganda..

This manipulation is bad for bitcoin.. No matter the end result, price this extreme volitility scares everyone away... This extreme volitility is also terrible for use as a currency..

The other day I said "when does BTC ever loose half it's value overnight?"
Now, it does..

Another thing..
I'm not sure of taking a side of segwit or whatever but, if segwit is what we need look who's stopping it.. China, that's who..
The greedy miners that just want ROI..
 
You know their mining advantage comes entirely from the fact that they don't mind dumping into and polluting their country by way of ground and the entire world by way of air..

They don't give a fuck how bad they fuck shit up to make the cheapest electricity possible..
They don't give a fuck how bad they fuck shit up to make the cheapest planned obsolescence electronics such as miners not to mention everything else they sell/export that is nothing but garbage in 1 year or so if that..

It is too bad that bitcoin has managed to get itself caught up in this terrible china game..

Not just bitcoin, the whole world..

Trump's trade war NOW!!
Maybe they will even give us the chance to embarrass their chincy china military..

They are sitting too many notches too high on the global pegboard and need to be taken down a few rungs including their current manipulated false influence and set them back a ways to learn their lesson..

We need to kick this toxic china influence OUT of our grand experiment of the people's financial liberty..

I hope china bans bitcoin once and for all..

China GTFO..

You think china wants anything to do with personal liberty? Think again..
This could even be a chinese special ops tactic to destroy bitcoin..

Wayyy too much perceived and otherwise justifiable influence by dirty actors..

i agree with you for the most part but id like to add that i have witnessed dozens of dormant wallet since 2011 and 2010 just suddently decides to empty their balance. this could have also put more sale on the market than buy could catch up with thus the constant new bottom we see everyday or so since we hit the ATH

[rjclarke2000]

Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything

Thank you for bringing this to our attention. I for one find this very very interesting. Good find there!

[osmotic]

id like to add that i have witnessed dozens of dormant wallet since 2011 and 2010 just suddently decides to empty their balance.

Where did you witness that?

Blockchain.info used to have a bitcoin days destroyed chart, but it's disappeared.

Is there any reputable site still providing a bitcoin days destroyed chart?

[kurious]

Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything

This is as good any any TA I have seen here of late, and reassuringly sensible.

None of the risible 'ATH in 30 days shit' just a reasonable term (with backup TA) to suppose the bull run continues over the medium term.

Respect.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

If the price keeps going down, I'll keep reallocating funds to buy more.

For how long? To what end?

[600watt]

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior top. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME


edit: meant to write "top"
this is not trying to spread fud. keep calm....  oh.wait...   

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

Our only workable use-case has shown itself to be sort of unworkable. China can clamp down on capital outflow through bitcoin at the drop of a chopstick. 

[eddie13]

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

THIS!!

And it has something to do with china..

[toknormal]

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster....someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

I previously thought that too but I've slightly changed my mind about this.

The 2013 bubble was a single huge run-up where the bubble burst and turned immediately into a long term bear market.

That's not happening this time.

For a start, the current "run-up" has lasted 18 months so far and has been much more sedate. It started mid-2015 off $200. There have been periodic bubbles which burst (see chart above) but unlike the 2013 spike, none of them have reversed the trend so far and having made that observation above I now have no reason to believe that this one will either. It seems to have bottom-spiked just at the right place to be consistent with previous "overheat conditions".

If it really starts to dig in past the previous spike (i.e., say in the 4000 CNY range) then I'll have to change my view obviously.

So I think the reason that it's only taken 1 week to fall below the previous spike is simply because it has far less distance to go since the growth is more natural and sustainable this time.

P.S. You can see the Huobi traders - they've taken it very quickly and confidently down to 5200 CNY but they appear scared to short it beyond that point because that would be defying the underlying trend and expose themselves to serious risk of having their shorts fried for breakfast. Lets see what happens over the next 10 days if it springs back up to the propeller "nose" or not with covering.

[becoin]

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

We all know from the very beginning this will happen on regular basis. After China many other countries will follow. But that won't stop bitcoin. It didn't stop it in the past. It will not stop it in the future. Just another buying opportunity!

[JayJuanGee]

If the price keeps going down, I'll keep reallocating funds to buy more.

For how long? To what end?

If those are not trolling questions, then what is?    Should be pretty clear what Jimbo is attempting to accomplish, even though it may be fair to ask whether some one would buy all the way down to zero, if there was such a move towards zero..