Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Fiat at the ready, keeping powder dry.

If you want to keep your powder dry keep your wealth in bitcoins, not in fiat!

Yeah, but we gotta snap into reality that the world still remains dominated by fiat, no?

It could be possible that you do not understand the concept of "keeping some dry powder", no?

It seems to be a bit too lopsided to have 100% invested in bitcoin, and maybe you do not mean that?  It also would seem to be a bit imprudent to not have any fiat-related investments, no?  Maybe that depends on age, but I would argue that even if you feel that you are really young and have not really had time to build diversification in your investments, it still may be prudent to hedge a little bit - because we know that bitcoin prices have been volatile and bitcoin prices are likely to continue to be volatile.  

It surely seems that bitcoin will become a bit less volatile as the market cap goes up, but the fact of the matter remains that the price of this asset class (aka bitcoin) can be manipulated with a relatively small amount of capital - give us another 100x in price appreciation (and increase in market cap), then it will become a lot harder (relatively) to manipulate - and volatility will decrease.

In my case, I currently have a fund dedicated to bitcoin investment, and sure I would like to be at 100% in that fund, especially when the prices are going up, but I would get a bit stressed out if I were 100% in that fund because when the price starts going down, the roller coaster can be a bit much to bear, because you can never really be sure about how long and how far the price is going to go down, and therefore within my bitcoin investment fund, I am currently about 93% in bitcoin and 7% in fiat.....

I also have to tweak my bitcoin investment fund from time to time here and there to continue to feel comfortable.. while attempting to keep some "dry powder," as they say, just in case we get a decent price drop.   I even buy with price drops as small as 3%, but then if the price drops 35%, which it recently did - remember mid January?, then it is much more comfortable to have some ability to buy some BTC back with already allocated bitcoin funds and not having to scramble to come up with funds at the last minute.  

why didn´t you just buy those 35%drop coins three months earlier, when they were under $600? don´t you end up with less coins that way?

He did end up with less coins, of course. But that is the price he paid for his daily doze of adrenaline by "trading" bitcoins...

When I got into bitcoin, I was not expecting to be a "trader," and I did not even want to engage in such trading activities, and maybe it was a bit naive of me?   because I did consider myself someone who buys on the way down and sells on the way up - even though I did not expect to engage in such conduct in such small intervals of price change (or maybe bitcoin's price changes more than I had erroneously expected).

Nonetheless, @Becoin... you seem to be assuming a quite a bit more than what really happens and how matters really play out.

Of course, if the price goes straight up, then I will have fewer coins than what I started with, but the reality of the matter and the reality of bitcoin seems to be that the price goes up and down and up and down, and in the end, over time, I tend to have more coins than what I started with and more or less the same amount of investment. 

Let me describe a little bit of specifics in order that maybe you (and other can attempt to relate)... I started buying in late 2013, and I continued to buy through the end of 2014 before I started to feel as if I had accumulated a decent enough stake in bitcoin.. but further since the price did not really go up, I did not feel comfortable or engage in any selling of bitcoin.  Further throughout 2015, the price largely floated in the $200s, so by the middle of 2015, I started to devise a plan to divide my bitcoin holdings into 3 portions and to authorize myself to sell within the third that would have had an average cost below my selling cost.  So the fact of the matter is that I began to sell bitcoin's at around $250, but overall, in the long term, prices continued to go up and are more or less 4x that price... and I still have about more than 10% more coins than I had with the same amount of investment.. I also have fiat stacked up, too.... so my holdings are considerably more protected than if I only engaged in HODL... So it seems that the price goes up and down and up and down, and my plan tends to accumulate coins...

On the other hand, you are correct that if the price were to go straight up (in a hypothetical world that does not exist and is not very probable to exist - low probability in other words), then I would have fewer coins than what I had started with.

[JayJuanGee]

It is not called "assholelisheness" based on the tone that you created (and therefore asked for) in your several posts, and your seeming attempts to chide.

But, otherwise, I have no problem sharing information and strategies, even if we might have differing approaches and thoughts regarding some of these  kinds of matters.

See, that's the thing, we have all heard your strategy over and over and over, mind you without wanting to hear about it.

Look... the royal "we"        

From one angle, my perspective is that if one or two people are able to benefit from my sharing experiences, then that is good enough for me, and I could give a ratt's ass if 95% of posters chimed in to say that they don't appreciate my experiences and/or perspective, in regards to my post contents.

From another angle, I post in order to clarify my own thoughts and get feed back from other folks, including you.  So sometimes, even quasi-nonsensical and exaggerated renditions like yours can help me to get a better perspective regarding how other people think about the current situation and even to possibly modify my own thinking and/or strategies based on a certain amount of weight to give to those thoughts (even if some of them are quasi-nonsensical and even seem to be exaggerations - I understand (or at least try to) that actual people have those kinds of thoughts that motivate their behaviors).

Mostly you used percentages to mask the fact that you own less than 10BTC. Which if the readers knew would likely hit the ignore button also.

If you do not understand something, then you deride it?  What craziness.

I frequently use percentages in order to describe what I am doing, and sometimes, I might use 10BTC as an example of a number of BTC, in order to illustrate points about proportionality.  10BTC is a nice round number, and someone who is reading can use something like that in order to apply the same principles to his portfolio or trading practices.  

Part of my point in using such a number, as well, is to assert that you can use the same principles no matter the quantity of BTC that you own.. We could even use 1BTC as a starting point, but sometimes something like 10BTC can give more meat and concreteness to the quantities.

back on ignore.

Me too, I unfortunately have to log in now to NOT see his bs arguments that are unfounded and illegible because he goes on rants that clearly show he never read the post even though he quoted it.

Yeah, you already made that point, when you did you cute little "ignore of JJG" earlier.. how cute and convenient for you to attempt to live in a bubble while accusing others of such.

The fact of the matter is that I raised a lot of points with you, but instead of attempting to engage and to clarify and to explain, you stay in your bubble and just write what you feel like  and do not respond to others.

How is your short at $980 coming, by the way?  

PoolMinor still waiting for $800...

Sooner than you think

Yeah, if you keep saying that price is going to fall, then sooner or later you will be correct - but that does not really address the fact that you are placing too much certainty on one direction or another.. and misleading in the way that you are describing matters, even though you are claiming to be "technical."  Bitcoin and it's price performance is quite a bit more than just pure math (and certainty).. when talking about the future...  helrow?  Even though after the fact, we can assert and even argue that some specific and certain thing actually happened.

[alexout]

JayJuanGee winning this thread.

Im sure the others arguing vs him have some points, but you usually can tell whos lost the debate once they start going into 'ignore button' territory.

[European Central Bank]

I've never had an argument with him. I have had him on ignore for a few years.

I ain't got the time for the sheer volume he writes but I'm sure he's a great guy with valid points.

[PoolMinor]

I've never had an argument with him. I have had him on ignore for a few years.

I ain't got the time for the sheer volume he writes but I'm sure he's a great guy with valid points.

If you ask for his input then fine, but since most don't.

[gembitz]

BTC-e finally capitulated above //^$1000 lol 

[criptix]

I love 4 digits.
Gentleman   

[hv_]

I love 4 digits.
Gentleman   

5 digits incoming...


 

[spooderman]

anyone else a bit baffled by this rally? seems to have just come out of nowhere

[PoolMinor]

Fact:
Bears eat beets!






Battlestar Galactica

[gembitz]

anyone else a bit baffled by this rally? seems to have just come out of nowhere

^not at all we are going to $2017!! :-D 


===> * 2MB = $2000

[600watt]

You are just making up shit.. for what purpose?  
...
still, that is a kind of artificial creation that you seem to be making in order to spread a kind of FUD... ...  

Finally, I do understand ... but it still remains a bit of a silly point to me...

I understand your point, but What a silly one, no?   

I guess that I am saying your strategy and even your question is dumb ... because it is a dumb strategy...

you do not quite understand ... you are just asking to be a pain in the ass ... and also a bit stubborn

no one else constantly reacts like that to my posts. he definitely is a winner.

[becoin]

anyone else a bit baffled by this rally? seems to have just come out of nowhere

Organic demand is the name of what you see. More and more people want to have at least one bitcoin. Many day traders are baffled because TA is useless in this environment.

[gembitz]

anyone else a bit baffled by this rally? seems to have just come out of nowhere

Organic demand is the name of what you see. More and more people want to have at least one bitcoin. Many day traders are baffled because TA is useless in this environment.

^let's not forget the bipartisan caucus on bitcoin :-D ~ Trump's pick ?

https://mulvaney.house.gov/media-center/articles-op-eds/sc-republican-among-founders-congressional-bitcoin-caucus

[Karartma1]

Boring sideways as we speak I think the weekend madness is almost over. Give me another ride BTC 

BTC-e finally capitulated above //^$1000 lol 

$998.5 right now... they still don't get it over there but eventually they will 

[_nur]

I love 4 digits.
Gentleman  

dont think so... atleast not this year
5 digits incoming...


 

[JayJuanGee]

anyone else a bit baffled by this rally? seems to have just come out of nowhere

It's not that baffling if you think about it in context.

I am not asserting that I know what the fuck is going on or what is going to happen, but the context remains somewhat understandable.

From late 2013 to mid 2015, we had a bear market (however, we likely did not realize that we had a bear market until about late 2014) - just like we did not realize that we were out of the bear market until about early 2016..and that we were in a bull market... so yeah, the bull market started in late 2015, and it brought us to $1139... with a correction down to $750... (almost 35% correction), and then we are in the midst of returning to potentially challenge the resistance at the ATH.. maybe we will get back there in a week or two, or it could take us a few months...

but the essence of this price movement is not really baffling... if you think about the context of it... Am I missing something?

[JayJuanGee]

You are just making up shit.. for what purpose?  
...
still, that is a kind of artificial creation that you seem to be making in order to spread a kind of FUD... ...  

Finally, I do understand ... but it still remains a bit of a silly point to me...

I understand your point, but What a silly one, no?   

I guess that I am saying your strategy and even your question is dumb ... because it is a dumb strategy...

you do not quite understand ... you are just asking to be a pain in the ass ... and also a bit stubborn

no one else constantly reacts like that to my posts. he definitely is a winner.

As I recall, you did not attempt to correct my assessment, to clarify in such a way to suggest that my tone was too harsh, or that I may not have backed up what i said, or something like that...

In other words, you seem to be getting emotional about silly and unimportant non substantive things, rather than attempting to address the actual substance of what I had been pointing out....

[talkbitcoin]

I love 4 digits.
Gentleman   

i loved 3 digits a lot more because in my five year plan i could have bought a lot more as long as it stayed 3 digits but we all make sacrifices.

[gembitz]

I love 4 digits.
Gentleman   

i loved 3 digits a lot more because in my five year plan i could have bought a lot more as long as it stayed 3 digits but we all make sacrifices.

$1OOO support looks good ~ hopefully we see $1200 x $1500 as to reflect the street price in India ! :-D