Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d5000]

$1000 is holding, that is a very bullish signal.

It is bullish, but only for the very short term. I think it's a good indicator that the price wants to re-test the $1130-40 level near the old Bitstamp ATH. But it's no guarantee that the price will cross that important mark.

The power of the bullish trend is slowly going away, so the most probable outcome for me is a double top (a new local high above $1100). $1100 should be a sure bet for now, but after passing that level I would be very careful - specially because of the still unsolved blocksize debate which is, if anything, a possible source of bad news that could emerge every day.

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[gembitz]

$1000 is holding, that is a very bullish signal.

It is bullish, but only for the very short term. I think it's a good indicator that the price wants to re-test the $1130-40 level near the old Bitstamp ATH. But it's no guarantee that the price will cross that important mark.

The power of the bullish trend is slowly going away, so the most probable outcome for me is a double top (a new local high above $1100). $1100 should be a sure bet for now, but after passing that level I would be very careful - specially because of the still unsolved blocksize debate which is, if anything, a possible source of bad news that could emerge every day.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=XAU

^spike see this flip north the shorts get crushed forvever!!

[Torque]

The reason for press lockdown precautions is so no-one can be accused of insider-trading, front-running, or etc after the fact ... what we can take from this is someone knows something. I sense they are getting it ready for a huge run up, and then probably a savage dump to make all the unsophisticated noobs who buy a ticket for a crazy BTC ETF ride crap themselves and swear off bitcoin for life ... don't think for one minute they are tooling up to help bitcoin, if an ETF is approved they will be well-prepped to rip it around for their best advantage. This WSJ article smells a lot like a fishy heads up ...

Totally agree with everything you said, especially the someone knows something. I've been suspecting the same, I mean look at all the indicators... price rise, China ending margin trading and zero fees, an ETF suddenly files in the same year that another ETF might get approval.  Also the very same year that the equities market might see a major correction.... hmmm....

Let's say that $300M of hedge fund money comes flooding in the ETF door in the first six months, and then another $200M on top of that in pure speculation.  Gah, the price would go to the moon overnight.

But I agree that in the long run that ETFs are really no good for bitcoin overall.  It would eventually turn into what happened to PMs... naked shorting and other manipulation in order to suppress price, ETF funds without the proper transparency for auditing, etc.

[European Central Bank]

What will happen now is that it's gonna get priced in and then there will be a huge dump if it doesn't get approved.

i don't believe there are many or any people betting anything on it being approved, or at least certainly not the regular bitcoin traders. they might use it as an opportunity to scare some people but that's about it. there'll be more movement if it's approved than if it isn't.

[savetherainforest]

Let's see where the support is now.

the next 24 dumps are critical.

The support is here!!! 





Some sentences are just timeless! 

[JayJuanGee]

The reason for press lockdown precautions is so no-one can be accused of insider-trading, front-running, or etc after the fact ... what we can take from this is someone knows something. I sense they are getting it ready for a huge run up, and then probably a savage dump to make all the unsophisticated noobs who buy a ticket for a crazy BTC ETF ride crap themselves and swear off bitcoin for life ... don't think for one minute they are tooling up to help bitcoin, if an ETF is approved they will be well-prepped to rip it around for their best advantage. This WSJ article smells a lot like a fishy heads up ...

Totally agree with everything you said, especially the someone knows something. I've been suspecting the same, I mean look at all the indicators... price rise, China ending margin trading and zero fees, an ETF suddenly files in the same year that another ETF might get approval.  Also the very same year that the equities market might see a major correction.... hmmm....

Let's say that $300M of hedge fund money comes flooding in the ETF door in the first six months, and then another $200M on top of that in pure speculation.  Gah, the price would go to the moon overnight.

But I agree that in the long run that ETFs are really no good for bitcoin overall.  It would eventually turn into what happened to PMs... naked shorting and other manipulation in order to suppress price, ETF funds without the proper transparency for auditing, etc.

Which seems to be another way of saying that ETFs allow for increased abilities to engage in fractional reserve banking.

[600watt]

$1000 is holding, that is a very bullish signal.

It is bullish, but only for the very short term. I think it's a good indicator that the price wants to re-test the $1130-40 level near the old Bitstamp ATH. But it's no guarantee that the price will cross that important mark.

The power of the bullish trend is slowly going away, so the most probable outcome for me is a double top (a new local high above $1100). $1100 should be a sure bet for now, but after passing that level I would be very careful - specially because of the still unsolved blocksize debate which is, if anything, a possible source of bad news that could emerge every day.

if that ETF thing gets approved and "somebody knows something" this would explain the somewhat strange coming back of the price after jan 5 drop - even with evaporating chines volume.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.
 
Still hanging tough in quadruple digits... currently $1038USD (Bitcoinaverage).

It's been over $1000 for over 3 days now, its longest stretch that high this year.

It's almost starting to feel normal instead of feeling like a bubble as it did 3 years ago.

Onward and upward.

[Fakhoury]

$1000 is holding, that is a very bullish signal.

It is bullish, but only for the very short term. I think it's a good indicator that the price wants to re-test the $1130-40 level near the old Bitstamp ATH. But it's no guarantee that the price will cross that important mark.

The power of the bullish trend is slowly going away, so the most probable outcome for me is a double top (a new local high above $1100). $1100 should be a sure bet for now, but after passing that level I would be very careful - specially because of the still unsolved blocksize debate which is, if anything, a possible source of bad news that could emerge every day.

if that ETF thing gets approved and "somebody knows something" this would explain the somewhat strange coming back of the price after jan 5 drop - even with evaporating chines volume.

What I'm quite sure of is that if the ETF will be 100% approved, we will have a big or even huge bump before the 11th so that the ETF shares buyers don't buy the shares at a reduced price and make it pricey for them.

[d5000]

if that ETF thing gets approved and "somebody knows something" this would explain the somewhat strange coming back of the price after jan 5 drop - even with evaporating chines volume.

I have examined the history of the 2011 and 2013 bubbles a bit and you may be right - at least there is no real precedent for this price recovery, the outcome "should have been" more bearish (if we part from the hypothesis that history repeats itself). The most similar would have been the chart at the end of October 2013 when the price corrected sharply after nearly touching the $266 high and needed 11 days to get again at the same level. But in that moment, as far as I remember the sentiment in the general "bitcoiner" public was much more bullish than now.

For your theory to confirm, we need to wait a month

[Torque]

What I'm quite sure of is that if the ETF will be 100% approved, we will have a big or even huge bump before the 11th so that the ETF shares buyers don't buy the shares at a reduced price and make it pricey for them.

Yep, happened with every U.S. Marshall auction too.  But this time it's more interesting, as China has effectively neutered 100X margin and free trades. That means the money won't be coming in from some small time whale pumpers on a few Chinese exchanges... it'll be coming in from actual big money (i.e., U.S. investment funds).  And perhaps much of it won't be just a short term trade, but more long term investment?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

What I'm quite sure of is that if the ETF will be 100% approved, we will have a big or even huge bump before the 11th so that the ETF shares buyers don't buy the shares at a reduced price and make it pricey for them.

Yep, happened with every U.S. Marshall auction too.  But this time, it's more interesting, as China has effectively neutered 100X margin and free trades. That means the money won't be coming in from some small time whale pumpers on a few Chinese exchanges... it'll be coming in from actual big money (i.e., U.S. investment funds).  And perhaps much of it won't be just a short term trade, but more long term investment?

Long term investment would be much better for us. I'm desperate fr the ETF to be approved but we've been here before haven't we, many times.

I'm sure there will be a reason to reject or delay it again.

[gentlemand]

Long term investment would be much better for us. I'm desperate fr the ETF to be approved but we've been here before haven't we, many times.

I'm sure there will be a reason to reject or delay it again.

They can't delay it any more. It's either a yes or a no by then. The longer it drags out, the more likely a yes as far as I can tell.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Long term investment would be much better for us. I'm desperate fr the ETF to be approved but we've been here before haven't we, many times.

I'm sure there will be a reason to reject or delay it again.

They can't delay it any more. It's either a yes or a no by then. The longer it drags out, the more likely a yes as far as I can tell.

Oh, thanks for that. I didn't know. Fingers crossed then, it'd be a monumental day for those of us who currently have bitcoin's stashed away.

[Holliday]

A Bitcoin ETF makes about as much sense to me as sails on a submarine.

[Syke]

A Bitcoin ETF makes about as much sense to me as sails on a submarine.

There is money tied up in accounts and regulations that cannot buy bitcoin directly, but could buy a bitcoin ETF.

[Holliday]

A Bitcoin ETF makes about as much sense to me as sails on a submarine.

There is money tied up in accounts and regulations that cannot buy bitcoin directly, but could buy a bitcoin ETF.

Precisely.

[DeathAngel]

A Bitcoin ETF makes about as much sense to me as sails on a submarine.

Who cares if it pumps the price up massively? Can only be a good thing for us right?
Let the moron's buy through investment forms & we'll lap up the profits.

[Fakhoury]

What I'm quite sure of is that if the ETF will be 100% approved, we will have a big or even huge bump before the 11th so that the ETF shares buyers don't buy the shares at a reduced price and make it pricey for them.

Yep, happened with every U.S. Marshall auction too.  But this time, it's more interesting, as China has effectively neutered 100X margin and free trades. That means the money won't be coming in from some small time whale pumpers on a few Chinese exchanges... it'll be coming in from actual big money (i.e., U.S. investment funds).  And perhaps much of it won't be just a short term trade, but more long term investment?

Long term investment would be much better for us. I'm desperate fr the ETF to be approved but we've been here before haven't we, many times.

I'm sure there will be a reason to reject or delay it again.

Torque : I believe it will be more of a long term investment and it will give us an insane credibility.

LFC_Bitcoin : As I said it before brother, most probably it will go into auto-approval.

[Karartma1]

Yes guys the ETF is a good step forward: let them buy paper bitcoin notes while we keep the real ones and benefit from the price increase. Rich guys want to be reassured and so be it: give them an ETF and we'll get to BRK.A price (credits to gembitz)