Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

6kBTC will take us to $95.00.

I have a feeling that apart from today (Friday May 3, UTC) we will never more have the chance to visit it.

Official Reason: the capitulation of 2nd Fibonacci order from the strong bull move, of $50->$167, leads us to $95, but no lower. (The third is $78, which means that should we cross $91 today, it'll be irresistible, and the the fourth and so on, but the chance is small, imo.)

Also sub-$100 prices just "seem too cheap".  

I am willing and able to just accumulate below $100 myself.

We are in a secular bull market as long as Bitcoin adoption is growing, and I see no proof to the contrary.

[Lgetty17]

I say it hits 96 and bounces, and stays. Elliot wave, downwards. 3 or 5, depending on how you count it- this is the last one

(On btce)

[seleme]

Fibonacci and Elliot can put their stuff where the sun doesn't shine, one who fibonaccied his ramblings a lot in last 24 hours can always do that too 

[rpietila]

I say it hits 96 and bounces, and stays. Elliot wave, downwards. 3 or 5, depending on how you count it- this is the last one

(On btce)

Wtf, is there one newb who knows what he is talking about, in this thread?  

[humanitee]

[SlipperySlope]

Accordingly, this capitulation may be the greatest of this bubble collapse, but it will not be the last one and will not be the bottom.

This capitulation at $91. Have you forgotten the bottom at $50 two weeks ago?
Are you predicting a bottom below that?

Understand that my time context is the entire bubble collapse, which I expect to be roughly three months after the peak on April 10. Yes, $50 is not the bottom - that is the nature of a speculative financial bubble collapse. Evidence shows that the bottom is deeper than most expect and takes about as long to occur as the bubble took to form in the first place. I believe the bubble started January 7, 2013 at $13.50. The underlying trend I think allows for a bottom well under $50.

[rpietila]

I say it hits 96 and bounces, and stays. Elliot wave, downwards. 3 or 5, depending on how you count it- this is the last one

(On btce)

Wtf, is there one newb who knows what he is talking about, in this thread?  

Ahem, Welcome - I mean   

[seleme]

I say it hits 96 and bounces, and stays. Elliot wave, downwards. 3 or 5, depending on how you count it- this is the last one

(On btce)

Wtf, is there one newb who knows what he is talking about, in this thread?  

Yeah, Mr. SuperNode "Never 145, never 115, never 95" is right one to tell them, lol... if you had some shame you wouldn't appear here for next month at least. But you don't, of course.

[Geist]

6kBTC will take us to $95.00.

I have a feeling that apart from today (Friday May 3, UTC) we will never more have the chance to visit it.

Official Reason: the capitulation of 2nd Fibonacci order from the strong bull move, of $50->$167, leads us to $95, but no lower. (The third is $78, which means that should we cross $91 today, it'll be irresistible, and the the fourth and so on, but the chance is small, imo.)

Also sub-$100 prices just "seem too cheap".  

I am willing and able to just accumulate below $100 myself.

We are in a secular bull market as long as Bitcoin adoption is growing, and I see no proof to the contrary.

I'm curious how you think the coin lab vs. Mt.Box lawsuit will affect prices.

http://gawker.com/so-a-currency-that-fluctuates-wildly-with-the-ebbs-and-487994806

I'm still relatively new to the BTC market, but surely the price would go down further in light of such news.

[seleme]

6kBTC will take us to $95.00.

I have a feeling that apart from today (Friday May 3, UTC) we will never more have the chance to visit it.

Official Reason: the capitulation of 2nd Fibonacci order from the strong bull move, of $50->$167, leads us to $95, but no lower. (The third is $78, which means that should we cross $91 today, it'll be irresistible, and the the fourth and so on, but the chance is small, imo.)

Also sub-$100 prices just "seem too cheap".  

I am willing and able to just accumulate below $100 myself.

We are in a secular bull market as long as Bitcoin adoption is growing, and I see no proof to the contrary.

I'm curious how you think the coin lab vs. Mt.Box lawsuit will affect prices.

http://gawker.com/so-a-currency-that-fluctuates-wildly-with-the-ebbs-and-487994806

I'm still relatively new to the BTC market, but surely the price would go down further in light of such news.

Friendly advice - ignore whatever he says, bullshitometer wants to explode as soon as he appears. You've be warned, do what you want.

[master-P]

Do you guys think the lawsuit is going to affect the price?

[seleme]

Do you guys think the lawsuit is going to affect the price?

It looks like everything is affecting the price. And it probably already had. Wouldn't be surprised if this crash is connected with it and some insider trading.

[SlipperySlope]

I'm curious how you think the coin lab vs. Mt.Box lawsuit will affect prices.

http://gawker.com/so-a-currency-that-fluctuates-wildly-with-the-ebbs-and-487994806

I'm still relatively new to the BTC market, but surely the price would go down further in light of such news.

I believe that this is huge but not immediate.

From the article ...

What tipped us into filing was our complete inability to get Mt. Gox to deliver on the few simple things left that were needed for customers to move over en-masse; we were often left just apologizing to our alpha customers while their own businesses suffered. I'm just not willing to put any of our customers in that position — if we can't do a good job for you, I won't promise that we can.

It is huge because Mt. Gox will react to the suit instead of spending all their time fighting DDoS attacks.

[420]

Do you guys think the lawsuit is going to affect the price?

gox is already lower than btc-e

Gox has less than 80% of the market now

so no, not as much as you think.

Market is already depressed. And BitcoinATM was rockin'

[justusranvier]

Do you guys think the lawsuit is going to affect the price?

1) Panic selling as people get scared by headlines.
2) While everybody is panicking Mt Gox and CoinLabs work out their differences and actually complete the transfer deal.
3) The improvement in the ease of moving USD to the exchange brings in vast amounts of dollar liquidity eager to buy bitcoins.
4) All the panic sellers buy their coins back at much higher prices.

[Geist]

Friendly advice - ignore whatever he says, bullshitometer wants to explode as soon as he appears. You've be warned, do what you want.

I don't like discounting others opinions unless they do something to seriously piss me off, and he has yet to do that. Nevertheless, thanks for the advice.

Do you guys think the lawsuit is going to affect the price?

Personally, I think it will drive the price down in the short term, but long term it might be a good thing. The more decentralized the better.

[rpietila]

Yeah, Mr. SuperNode "Never 145, never 115, never 95" is right one to tell them... if you had some shame you wouldn't appear here for next month at least. But you don't, of course.

I have always prompted people to read my diary first, before daytrading (if any). Since bitcoin is going to $300k in the long run (and higher in the short), it does not make so much sense to fish the bottom unless you do it full time with an organization primed for the task (a supernode).

Just buy and hold. Buying bitcoins at any price sub-100k is not as large a mistake, as it would be to be left out of a supermove, such as the ones in the period between 8/2010-6/2011 and the one started in January 2013.

If everyone were so smart as you claim to be, they would make so much money daytrading that all bitcoins would end up in their pockets in a few short months. I am accumulating about 0.5%-1% of the new mining supply daily. I am content with it, since if the price goes down, this goes up.

The adoption of bitcoin in my observation is growing at a 10-30% weekly rate (and I actually observe things before making my fundamental predictions). There is not much room for further decreases fundamentally.

If we see the third order capitulation to $78, it does not alter any of the fundamental facts.

I saw the bubble coming and sold above $200. My miscalculation was that we would only crash to $100-$120 area and bounce back (2. fib). We did go even as low as $50 and tested it several times (4. fib).

In my thinking, 2. fibonacci should close all moves, everything of higher order is too wonderful to me to understand, and I just buy until it goes away (which it usually does).

I have 10,000 ounces of silver. Takers (pay with bitcoin only)?

[johnblaze]

Do you guys think the lawsuit is going to affect the price?

1) Panic selling as people get scared by headlines.
2) While everybody is panicking Mt Gox and CoinLabs work out their differences and actually complete the transfer deal.
3) The improvement in the ease of moving USD to the exchange brings in vast amounts of dollar liquidity eager to buy bitcoins.
4) All the panic sellers buy their coins back at much higher prices.

LOL
yeah, right.

[adamstgBit]

Do you guys think the lawsuit is going to affect the price?

1) Panic selling as people get scared by headlines.
2) While everybody is panicking Mt Gox and CoinLabs work out their differences and actually complete the transfer deal.
3) The improvement in the ease of moving USD to the exchange brings in vast amounts of dollar liquidity eager to buy bitcoins.
4) All the panic sellers buy their coins back at much higher prices.

LOL! YES!

not sure about 1 and 2, but 3 and 4 is a given

[rpietila]

Friendly advice - ignore whatever he says, bullshitometer wants to explode as soon as he appears. You've be warned, do what you want.

I don't like discounting others opinions unless they do something to seriously piss me off, and he has yet to do that. Nevertheless, thanks for the advice.

Do you guys think the lawsuit is going to affect the price?

Personally, I think it will drive the price down in the short term, but long term it might be a good thing. The more decentralized the better.

Seleme is the most expensive sockpuppet out there, the account is created about the time when I won the infamous debate "silver vs. bitcoin". I was representing silver, that is...  

I think trading on news (such as the lawsuit), is more difficult than trading completely without them. I haven't in general followed the media since 2002 or so. I don't read analysts, newspapers, watch TV or movies, .... I have been featured in TV many more hours since 2006 than I have spent watching it.

This frees my time for thinking fundamentally. I am a very bad technical trader, but better than 99% as I make money and don't lose my position.