Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DougTanner]

me and my fiat are taking a break this weekend. I think maybe it's not dissapearing into coins but it's just off the order book. I have no idea what to bid at the moment.

I just put lots of bids from $75 down to $10. Whatever the bottom is I'll catch a good chunk of it.

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[Rockford]

If there indeed is another leg down, and it has similar dimensions, then we could see an approach down to $70 in about 24 hours.

However volume typically drops off on Friday afternoon and over the weekend. The bottom of the capitulation may not therefore occur until Monday. Back in August 2011 the bottom of the first and greatest capitulation was a massive, high volume sell off, dropping the last 15% in two hours - which is the sort of volume one could expect on Monday.

agreed.

or the big manipulator behind this is tricking masses into that thought and has some other plans for the weekend

I got out at a pretty comfortable at 125 and now wait for a convincing entrypoint somewehre in the future.
I wont bother about catching the exact bottom as I am long for 99% of my BTC

[SlipperySlope]

The next several hours will reveal whether the price movement stays in the channel.

[AmazonStuff]

I guess this was I,II,III,IV,V, let's see what will happen in the future  

[Richy_T]

agreed.

or the big manipulator behind this is tricking masses into that thought and has some other plans for the weekend

I got out at a pretty comfortable at 125 and now wait for a convincing entrypoint somewehre in the future.
I wont bother about catching the exact bottom as I am long for 99% of my BTC

Yeah, that's a pretty big "if". Seems very possible but if patterns always repeated, it would already be accounted for.

On the other hand, people will hold on as long as possible, often leading to a long slide.

On the third hand, Bitcoin fundamentals are still solid in my book. So I'll keep hold of what I've got.

[paulie_w]

me and my fiat are taking a break this weekend. I think maybe it's not dissapearing into coins but it's just off the order book. I have no idea what to bid at the moment.

I just put lots of bids from $75 down to $10. Whatever the bottom is I'll catch a good chunk of it.

what is the best strategy for doing this?

[Jaroslaw]

it will drop for sure. just wait for some big fish to see this stupid bulls who create this unrealistick peak above 90$ it will vanish

[Gabi]

Look, cheap coins!

[KillaMarci]

me and my fiat are taking a break this weekend. I think maybe it's not dissapearing into coins but it's just off the order book. I have no idea what to bid at the moment.

I just put lots of bids from $75 down to $10. Whatever the bottom is I'll catch a good chunk of it.

what is the best strategy for doing this?

I usually pick a spot where I want to begin, and double the amount I'm going to buy the lower it gets.

So for example
0.1BTC @ $80
0.2BTC @ $78
0.4BTC @ $76
0.8BTC @ $74


etc.

I'm sure theres different strategies for this but I find this one the most logical sounding.

[SlipperySlope]

I guess this was I,II,III,IV,V, let's see what will happen in the future  

Are not especially powerful price movements often characterized by extensions in EW analysis?

What we have here is a great capitulation in the wake of the biggest bitcoin bubble collapse to date. Above $110, sellers may be motivated by profit-taking, but below $110 nearly everyone who bought BTC between April 1 and May 2 is not taking profits when they sell, they are staunching a loss, and potentially very big losses. And on the other hand, smart money that sold above current levels is strongly motivated by bargain hunting. These two forces, distressed sellers and bargain-hunting buyers, oscillate in initiative thus causing the wave patterns - right?

[DougTanner]

me and my fiat are taking a break this weekend. I think maybe it's not dissapearing into coins but it's just off the order book. I have no idea what to bid at the moment.

I just put lots of bids from $75 down to $10. Whatever the bottom is I'll catch a good chunk of it.

what is the best strategy for doing this?

There probably isn't one, I just picked the "lowest it could ever go" as my bottom then put some exponentially equidistant bids in from $10.00 -> $11.00 -> $12.10 -> ... -> $67.27 -> $74.11, with constant dollar amounts.

$10 is probably too low, I might adjust it to $15 or $30. Dunno.

[deathcode]

me and my fiat are taking a break this weekend. I think maybe it's not dissapearing into coins but it's just off the order book. I have no idea what to bid at the moment.

I just put lots of bids from $75 down to $10. Whatever the bottom is I'll catch a good chunk of it.

what is the best strategy for doing this?

I usually pick a spot where I want to begin, and double the amount I'm going to buy the lower it gets.

So for example
0.1BTC @ $80
0.2BTC @ $78
0.4BTC @ $76
0.8BTC @ $74


etc.

I'm sure theres different strategies for this but I find this one the most logical sounding.

I'm curious about these strategies.. people use the same strategies when they play blackjack. They play the minimum, they lost, then they play twice the minimum and so on.
What they don't realize is that they waste a valuable and most often unaccounted factor TIME!

You can easily buy or sell ALL your coins at a single price, if you re-buy or re-sell at a better price then BAM!!! you made a shit ton of money compared to the averaging strategy you use...
It's kinda like the "diversification" approach... when all the so called financial advisors recommend to diversify...
that's code for "I have no clue what will go up or down, so to cover my ass, I'll recommend you to bed on all the different stocks so in the end I make money off commissions and you break even"

Anyways... I'm not criticizing  your strategy, just pointing out what I think is the common denominator in many other situations.

[Richy_T]

Got a feeling we might see another (slow) bounce above 100. Not sure where it will land though.

[ManBearPig]

me and my fiat are taking a break this weekend. I think maybe it's not dissapearing into coins but it's just off the order book. I have no idea what to bid at the moment.

Yep, same here.

[Richy_T]

I'm curious about these strategies.. people use the same strategies when they play blackjack. They play the minimum, they lost, then they play twice the minimum and so on.
What they don't realize is that they waste a valuable and most often unaccounted factor TIME!

You can easily buy or sell ALL your coins at a single price, if you re-buy or re-sell at a better price then BAM!!! you made a shit ton of money compared to the averaging strategy you use...
It's kinda like the "diversification" approach... when all the so called financial advisors recommend to diversify...
that's code for "I have no clue what will go up or down, so to cover my ass, I'll recommend you to bed on all the different stocks so in the end I make money off commissions and you break even"

Anyways... I'm not criticizing  your strategy, just pointing out what I think is the common denominator in many other situations.

I don't think anyone is denying it's a risk management strategy. It's different from the blackjack example though.

[seleme]

another chance for easy money missed, damn you bitcoins 

[SlipperySlope]

me and my fiat are taking a break this weekend. I think maybe it's not dissapearing into coins but it's just off the order book. I have no idea what to bid at the moment.

I just put lots of bids from $75 down to $10. Whatever the bottom is I'll catch a good chunk of it.

what is the best strategy for doing this?

I usually pick a spot where I want to begin, and double the amount I'm going to buy the lower it gets.

So for example
0.1BTC @ $80
0.2BTC @ $78
0.4BTC @ $76
0.8BTC @ $74


etc.

I'm sure theres different strategies for this but I find this one the most logical sounding.

I have a most likely price target in mind beforehand. For example, a couple of days ago I obtained a price target for this capitulation by way of comparison with the first and greatest capitulation of bubble 1. That one had a 55% drop from the top. This one started at $145 and my price target was therefore $65. I created pre-positioned buy limit orders at Mt. Gox for $95, $87, $80, $76, and $65. Based upon the relentless selling pressure today, I split the lowest bid and created a new bid at $60. Regarding order size, I use a rough gaussian distribution, i.e. bell curve, that heavily weights the orders in the center of the spread. In a sort of monte carlo analysis, I expect the majority of my orders to get filled, but not necessarily the lowest one(s).

My buy points illustrated above are in whole numbers, the actual orders are positioned according to the nearby bid walls, i.e. my orders are relatively small and I want them filled before the 1000+ BTC orders commonly placed at whole numbers as walls.

These execution tactics are new to me. I vowed during the last bitcoin bubble to learn - and to profit accordingly.

[KillaMarci]

I'm curious about these strategies.. people use the same strategies when they play blackjack. They play the minimum, they lost, then they play twice the minimum and so on.
What they don't realize is that they waste a valuable and most often unaccounted factor TIME!

You can easily buy or sell ALL your coins at a single price, if you re-buy or re-sell at a better price then BAM!!! you made a shit ton of money compared to the averaging strategy you use...
It's kinda like the "diversification" approach... when all the so called financial advisors recommend to diversify...
that's code for "I have no clue what will go up or down, so to cover my ass, I'll recommend you to bed on all the different stocks so in the end I make money off commissions and you break even"

Anyways... I'm not criticizing  your strategy, just pointing out what I think is the common denominator in many other situations.

That's true. If you look at my example and the price only goes to $78 then I'm screwed because I only bought 0.3. This strategy is mostly just to try to predict the bottom and try to catch as much as you can even if your bottom is off by +5%. Catching the exact bottom and going all in is very difficult for me. With this strategy I can pick a bottom +/-5% and place my bets accordingly.

[Richy_T]

[barbs]

another chance for easy money missed, damn you bitcoins 

haha was just thinking this

just missed it. was looking at 82$ loaded with FIAT and just got back from a meeting and here we are at 100 . DAMN U BITCOINS! Lets buy in at the top so we can offer some water for that pump! maybe not.