Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Well.. Most of optimistic holders right there were not expecting bitcoin to break 3.000$ after a dump from 2.980$ to 1.800$ and go as high as 20.000$ 4 months later.

The average optimistic bitcoin projections after we break 3.000$ was 5.000$ for the end of 2018, and we know what happens.. bitcoin goes x4 of that average expectation.

Now also we are in the same situation. A pullback from 20.000$ to 6.000$ Then a try to retest the 20.000$ and go above in next weeks.

Again the average optimistic holders are praying for a price of 20.000$ again before end of 2018. So maybe we are going to make x4 of the average expectation before end of 2018 For a bitcoin price of 80.000$.

When/If bitcoin gonna hit 80.000$ the very big hedge funds and the richest persons are going to enter the market. This gonna coincide with a bitcoin pullback from 80.000$ to 40.000$ only because this time there are the richest persons in the world  willing to buy bitcoin after bitcoin going to be the number one on internet trends from here. So.. its going to be a very big support, and from there the real big boom gonna happend ( duo to the amazing big big bang money coming) and take bitcoin price from 40.000$ to 500.000$ before end of 2019 And then bitcoin officially recognised as the new GOLD and all the powers gonna submit to the new worldwide king.

Thats my projection.

I know it sounds like impossible, but with bitcoin all is possible. He goes from cents to 20.000$ in 7 Years and you think its impossible he make X25 in 2 years from the 20.000$ registred on december 2017 to december 2019?

I like your way of thinking. Sometimes we are too consumed by the short term charts and miss the big picture. If we keep our faith in what seems impossible now, we will be rewarded sooner or later.

Thank you mate.

We need more positive bull energy.

In the long run, bitcoin from hes creation, was only very bullish in the long run and that are not going to change.

Like you said, our brains are by default focused on the very short term and forget the big term picture wish is very very bullish.

And for my projection, i found it very reasonnable and conservative, but for the ones that are more focused on short term pictures, it feels like mission impossible to get @ 80.000$ @ the end of 2018  And 500.000$ @ the end of 2019.

In the past, bear markets have survived for multiple years. The growth has been concentrated in a few months, which means you really shouldn't miss those. Giving such tight price targets for end of 2018 for example makes me uncomfortable, since the bear market could very easily last until then. However, if the past is any guide, the subsequent growth once it enters the bull phase would be impressive too. Just don't want people to sell in despair if their year end price targets aren't being met.

You are exactly correct - yet, another factor is that the bull market from late 2015 to 2017 took two years to unravel, and arguably we could still be in such bull market.  Price direction remains unclear from here, regarding whether our current correction is going to continue - which you are also right that we could be in this current correction for another year or two before resuming up.   

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[JayJuanGee]

I want neither hookers, blow nor Lambos so obviously will have some difficult decisions coming up. 

hopefully you do not become one of those take it to your grave statistics.

[infofront]

I want neither hookers, blow nor Lambos so obviously will have some difficult decisions coming up. 

Sugar babies, crank, and Teslas it is then.

[JayJuanGee]

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?   

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

[nanobtc]

Set a goal in life, figure out how much money you need to do it, and stick to the plan.

When bitcoin breaks 10k again I'm moving to Thailand to become a full-time monger.

In 1971, Zappa characterized the Trend Monger?  Search for The Adventures of Gregory Peccary on your own time.

[HairyMaclairy]

I want neither hookers, blow nor Lambos so obviously will have some difficult decisions coming up.  

Sugar babies, crank, and Teslas it is then.

Socialists like myself prefer babushkas, krokodil and Ladas

[nikauforest]

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?   

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.

[pacman7331]

Look at this trading view idea. (not mine)

It's showing a great opportunity for bitcoin if it forms. Inverse head and shoulders.
We need to go back to 8k or so to make it happen. Which means our little trend line needs to be sacrificed.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/S2nDXFCF/

I hope this will happen.  



Another one: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XBTM18/HDQMsm0u-Bitcoin-rising-wedge-possible-breakdown/

[mindrust]

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.

You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.

[bitserve]

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.

You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.

Irony or really serious? I really can't tell....

[nikauforest]

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.

You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.

Maybe.... I am pretty happy though. I still have all my BTC. 10x is a small gain in this arena.

[HairyMaclairy]

He is serious. You won’t get rich restricting your best asset to 25% of the value of your portfolio.

Diversification is very effective at killing moonshot gains.  You need to allow it headroom to grow.  

Give me two more years like 2017.  Is that too much to ask? 

[HairyMaclairy]

I'm not making a hypothetical argument. The data on Coinmarketcap speaks for itself.

Try selling $100k worth of anything below the top 100 on exchange and let me know how you go with that.  

As I have previous posted, you could drive Bitcoin Unlimited to zero on QUOINEX with less than $1k worth.

[JayJuanGee]

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.

You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.

Irony or really serious? I really can't tell....

You are correct, bitserve, some peeps really believe that kind of shit, that you have to go all in and gamble... and the truth of the matter with bitcoin has been that the returns have been so great that even modest investment strategies result in peeps becoming rich, as long as they largely HODL.

[bitserve]

He is serious. You won’t get rich restricting your best asset to 25% of the value of your portfolio.

Diversification is very effective at killing moonshot gains.  You need to allow it headroom to grow.  

Give me two more years like 2017.  Is that too much to ask?  

Of course, you can get richer going all in on a (retrospectively) HUGELY appreciating asset. But you never know for sure what will happen in the future... and you can get rich with a 25% if that 25% is enough and you can get poor if you are all in and the winds change.

He said that 25% is from his total net worth including real estate, fiat, stocks, everything. And, above all, that he tries to maintain his number of Bitcoins from the beginning extracting only some profits here and there and diversifying it.

It looks reasonable to me.

[nikauforest]

He is serious. You won’t get rich restricting your best asset to 25% of the value of your portfolio.

Diversification is very effective at killing moonshot gains.  You need to allow it headroom to grow.  

Give me two more years like 2017.  Is that too much to ask? 

Yea, give me two more years like 2017

What you say is perhaps true, however you are not factoring in other data.

1) For instance, if you already have wealth , do you then have 90% of your wealth in one asset?
2) You can still have amazing growth in other assets. For example marijuana stocks, gold stocks, A2 Milk for example on the NZX. 600% is not that bad for a stock.
3) I guess when you have wealth , you also need to look for ways to protect it.
4) Age makes a difference.

I do get your point. I guess it is a matter of personal strategy and where you are at in life.

[HairyMaclairy]

I fail to see how you can maintain the same number of Bitcoin AND hold your Bitcoin value to 25% of your portfolio

How exactly does one achieve this?

[bitserve]

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.

You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.

Irony or really serious? I really can't tell....

You are correct, bitserve, some peeps really believe that kind of shit, that you have to go all in and gamble... and the truth of the matter with bitcoin has been that the returns have been so great that even modest investment strategies result in peeps becoming rich, as long as they largely HODL.

Overinvested people are the weak hands that dump the price when the water starts drowning them. We don't need any more of those. Going all in is great... until it isn't. Yeah, that's the better strategy, buy an amount you are confortable with no matter what and just HODL.

That being said... I probably have more than 25% (don't want to calculate nor say it) of my total net worth on crypto... and... sometimes I have felt the pressure of the water even if I have enough FIAT reserves for "modestly living/surviving" for more than a decade even with no additional income and crypto being zeroed out.

Wouldn't like to be the guy with 100% BET on ANYTHING... no.

[HairyMaclairy]

There is a huge difference based on your start point.

Someone who puts in 50% of their wealth is weak hands.

Someone who puts in 5% of their wealth and allows it to grow to 90% should be strong hands, especially if they have already taken out twice their original investment in profits.  

[bitserve]

I fail to see how you can maintain the same number of Bitcoin AND hold your Bitcoin value to 25% of your portfolio

How exactly does one achieve this?

That's a good question. I would bet that 25% is a point he recently reached and he is now trying to maintain. Also, who said his diversified portfolio+income doesn't grow too?