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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21291884 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
nikauforest
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April 30, 2018, 06:34:02 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitserve (1)

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?   

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.
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April 30, 2018, 06:42:39 AM
Merited by 600watt (1)

Look at this trading view idea. (not mine)

It's showing a great opportunity for bitcoin if it forms. Inverse head and shoulders.
We need to go back to 8k or so to make it happen. Which means our little trend line needs to be sacrificed.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/S2nDXFCF/

I hope this will happen.  



Another one: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XBTM18/HDQMsm0u-Bitcoin-rising-wedge-possible-breakdown/
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April 30, 2018, 06:50:40 AM
Merited by 600watt (1)

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.


You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.
bitserve
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April 30, 2018, 06:57:12 AM

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.


You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.

Irony or really serious? I really can't tell....
nikauforest
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April 30, 2018, 07:00:15 AM

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.


You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.

Maybe.... I am pretty happy though. I still have all my BTC. 10x is a small gain in this arena.
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April 30, 2018, 07:03:59 AM
Merited by 600watt (1)

He is serious. You won’t get rich restricting your best asset to 25% of the value of your portfolio.

Diversification is very effective at killing moonshot gains.  You need to allow it headroom to grow.  

Give me two more years like 2017.  Is that too much to ask?  Cool
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April 30, 2018, 07:21:16 AM

I'm not making a hypothetical argument. The data on Coinmarketcap speaks for itself.

Try selling $100k worth of anything below the top 100 on exchange and let me know how you go with that.  

As I have previous posted, you could drive Bitcoin Unlimited to zero on QUOINEX with less than $1k worth.
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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April 30, 2018, 07:33:27 AM

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.


You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.

Irony or really serious? I really can't tell....

You are correct, bitserve, some peeps really believe that kind of shit, that you have to go all in and gamble... and the truth of the matter with bitcoin has been that the returns have been so great that even modest investment strategies result in peeps becoming rich, as long as they largely HODL.
bitserve
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April 30, 2018, 07:38:21 AM

He is serious. You won’t get rich restricting your best asset to 25% of the value of your portfolio.

Diversification is very effective at killing moonshot gains.  You need to allow it headroom to grow.  

Give me two more years like 2017.  Is that too much to ask?  Cool

Of course, you can get richer going all in on a (retrospectively) HUGELY appreciating asset. But you never know for sure what will happen in the future... and you can get rich with a 25% if that 25% is enough and you can get poor if you are all in and the winds change.

He said that 25% is from his total net worth including real estate, fiat, stocks, everything. And, above all, that he tries to maintain his number of Bitcoins from the beginning extracting only some profits here and there and diversifying it.

It looks reasonable to me.
nikauforest
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April 30, 2018, 07:43:07 AM

He is serious. You won’t get rich restricting your best asset to 25% of the value of your portfolio.

Diversification is very effective at killing moonshot gains.  You need to allow it headroom to grow.  

Give me two more years like 2017.  Is that too much to ask?  Cool

Yea, give me two more years like 2017 Smiley

What you say is perhaps true, however you are not factoring in other data.

1) For instance, if you already have wealth , do you then have 90% of your wealth in one asset?
2) You can still have amazing growth in other assets. For example marijuana stocks, gold stocks, A2 Milk for example on the NZX. 600% is not that bad for a stock.
3) I guess when you have wealth , you also need to look for ways to protect it.
4) Age makes a difference.

I do get your point. I guess it is a matter of personal strategy and where you are at in life.
HairyMaclairy
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April 30, 2018, 07:43:50 AM

I fail to see how you can maintain the same number of Bitcoin AND hold your Bitcoin value to 25% of your portfolio

How exactly does one achieve this?
bitserve
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April 30, 2018, 07:51:24 AM
Last edit: April 30, 2018, 08:15:28 AM by bitserve

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.


You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.

Irony or really serious? I really can't tell....

You are correct, bitserve, some peeps really believe that kind of shit, that you have to go all in and gamble... and the truth of the matter with bitcoin has been that the returns have been so great that even modest investment strategies result in peeps becoming rich, as long as they largely HODL.

Overinvested people are the weak hands that dump the price when the water starts drowning them. We don't need any more of those. Going all in is great... until it isn't. Yeah, that's the better strategy, buy an amount you are confortable with no matter what and just HODL.

That being said... I probably have more than 25% (don't want to calculate nor say it) of my total net worth on crypto... and... sometimes I have felt the pressure of the water even if I have enough FIAT reserves for "modestly living/surviving" for more than a decade even with no additional income and crypto being zeroed out.

Wouldn't like to be the guy with 100% BET on ANYTHING... no.
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April 30, 2018, 07:57:52 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

There is a huge difference based on your start point.

Someone who puts in 50% of their wealth is weak hands.

Someone who puts in 5% of their wealth and allows it to grow to 90% should be strong hands, especially if they have already taken out twice their original investment in profits.  
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April 30, 2018, 07:58:29 AM

I fail to see how you can maintain the same number of Bitcoin AND hold your Bitcoin value to 25% of your portfolio

How exactly does one achieve this?

That's a good question. I would bet that 25% is a point he recently reached and he is now trying to maintain. Also, who said his diversified portfolio+income doesn't grow too?
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April 30, 2018, 08:01:05 AM

I fail to see how you can maintain the same number of Bitcoin AND hold your Bitcoin value to 25% of your portfolio

How exactly does one achieve this?

That's a good question. I would bet that 25% is a point he recently reached and he is now trying to maintain. Also, who said his diversified portfolio+income doesn't grow too?

Let’s not kid ourselves.  His non-Bitcoin diversified portfolio of gold and real property  did not 10x this year.
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April 30, 2018, 08:07:07 AM

There is a huge difference based on your start point.

Someone who puts in 50% of their wealth is weak hands.

Someone who puts in 5% of their wealth and allows it to grow to 90% should be strong hands, especially if they have already taken out twice their original investment in profits.  

Agreed, partially. Even if you did put just 5% initially or even 1%, when crypto grows to over 90% of your total net worth and you know it is enough to "retire" and you see it dumping to one third.... that hurts.... let's just call it "sudden overinvested situation". That's also a thing.

Diversifying some is not stupid at all. And it makes you stronger hand for the remaining stash.
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April 30, 2018, 08:08:17 AM

To the moon kids!
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April 30, 2018, 08:09:55 AM

I fail to see how you can maintain the same number of Bitcoin AND hold your Bitcoin value to 25% of your portfolio

How exactly does one achieve this?

That's a good question. I would bet that 25% is a point he recently reached and he is now trying to maintain. Also, who said his diversified portfolio+income doesn't grow too?

Let’s not kid ourselves.  His non-Bitcoin diversified portfolio of gold and real property  did not 10x this year.

Probably true. Unless he only have a few Bitcoins, is a very good trader, have a great salary and not many expenses.
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April 30, 2018, 08:15:43 AM

There is a huge difference based on your start point.

Someone who puts in 50% of their wealth is weak hands.

Someone who puts in 5% of their wealth and allows it to grow to 90% should be strong hands, especially if they have already taken out twice their original investment in profits.  

It is like Hairy reads my mind. Last year around today, I had %3 of my net worth in crypto. Then I started to buy and hold, Now it is %30. Mostly thanks to the major pump. At some point in December it was close to %50. Did i get rich? No.

I lost thousands of USD just because I didn't get out in time but you know what? I don't care. I can sleep at nights pretty well because I know It is not going to zero. I'll keep investing more and this time I won't be a pussy. This time we do it right. This time I am going Sparta %100.

For Pandariaaa



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April 30, 2018, 08:33:33 AM
Merited by edgar (1)

Anyone who bought Bitcoin before 2017 could probably have sold 10% recently to reduce their net exposure to zero.

After this the % of portfolio it represents is a little less of a problem, stress-wise - and it's merely a defensive move to diversify and /or lock in profits made.
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