Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sunanbonang]

back down below $ 8k 
now it's touched $ 7500, I hope it will not go back to the $ 7k price.

[1563876358]

1563876358

[afbitcoins]

Rick just came home from work and asked "What the fuck is going on with Bitcoin, man ?"

I just shrugged and replied with "No idea, dude."

What do I tell him about this dump ?

I have no idea what's going on.

Seems like your partner is too emotionally invested in your BTC investment.

I recall that you, Bob, have taken a couple pretty decently sized cash outs in the supra $11k price arena, which I would imagine that you have largely already gotten back more than your total investment from those cash outs, even though you likely sold less than a 1/4 of your stash.. or at least that was my impression... but anyhow BTC prices had gone up way over 4x, at those price points, that it is quite likely that you have gotten out more than your original investment.

I recall also, that you deferred one of your cash outs, and tentatively, you were considering waiting until prices returned above $12k, so is that the part that has your partner worried?

I think that with any investment, one of the problems is if you are somewhat dependent upon the cashflow of the investment to pay your expenses, then in that regard, anyone could be considered to be "overinvested" if he could be forced to cash out of some or all of the investment at a time that is NOT of his choosing.

Ultimately, it seems that current BTC price performance is part of regular price correction dynamics, and a looming question does remain whether current BTC prices is going to end up being in an early 2013 like scenario or a early 2014 like scenario... I personally am still inclined to believe that the early 2013 like scenario seems to be the most likely of the two, but of course, the jury is still out and there have been a lot of more bearish folks that have been proclaiming the early 2014 scenario.. and part of my problem with such proclamation, from some of those folks, is that they have been proclaiming it since about early January.. and that is way to fucking early to be making such proclamations, even though they could end up being correct - in what I personally continue to consider their "minority" view...   I use the word "minority" to suggest that the early 2014 scenario seems to be the least likely, rather than the one held by the least of people... because it is quite possible, and even likely, that more peeps outside of this thread (we in the WO, are not the whole world, by the way... hahahahahha... even if we may be a lot more "in touch" with BTC fundamentals than the vast majority of the world expressing opinions on the BTC topic)  actually believe in the early 2014 scenario rather than the early 2013 scenario.

You recall lots 

[micgoossens]

back down below $ 8k 
now it's touched $ 7500, I hope it will not go back to the $ 7k price.

man up
1btc still 1btc        

no crying about where prices are

[afbitcoins]

I strongly agree with what I think is your more general point that A) commodity money is important B) cryptocurrency is not a replacement or substitute for it

Mind explaining why you think commodity money will stay important? Genuinely interested.

Sure. Basically I don't think bitcoin makes a very good reserve asset. It isn't nearly as well suited for a base of the liquidity pyramid as gold is.



Part of what makes it poorly suited as a reserve asset is that technology improves over time. There is a risk that the leading cryptocurrency will always be overturned by new and better technology. Which is a good thing, just not a good thing if you want the properties of a stable long term bottom of the liquidity pyramid reserve asset. Interestingly there is an implication here that if bitcoin can win against all of the other alts and come to soundly dominate this sector it will more closely approximate the utility of gold as a reserve asset. But if it get's overtaken by ethereum or bcrap that could open pandoras box and doubly prove my point.

There is also an existential threat posed to bitcoin from forks that you wouldn't want in a reserve asset.

There is a technological threat, what if the network gets owned? What if it is built on assumptions that turn out to be wrong? It's well safe enough for speculation and payments and building businesses ontop of, but there is enough of a risk in this regard to hamper its utility as an ultra safe long term reserve asset.

TLDR; if you were to insert bitcoin into the pyramid it would fall in-between gold and circulating money, not next to gold, and certainly not beneath it.

You're right.

Just thinking out loud here. If you look at bitcoin in isolation it is limited in quantity. Yes. But if you look at crypto in isolation it is inflating like crazy, coins doubling every fork and brand new ones left right and centre with any arbitrary number of tokens. And some of those are inflationary. I guess just more reasons gold deserves to be in that spot at the base of the pyramid.

[dmwardjr]

Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic - Chart pasted again in comments in the following link with additional details, explanations and indicators:  

Lets get a historical perspective on what we're currently dealing with:

The SPRING can "possibly" begin around June 22nd.  It's marked below with Blue Vertical Time Line inside the top indicator located near the bottom of the chart lined up with the text bubble, "SPRING."

2018 2-Day Time Frame:



2014 2-Day Time Frame:

Another IMPORTANT NOTE:

In 2014 we ended up with MULTIPLE Automatic Rallies and TESTS in Phase B. It's possible we could have MULTIPLE Automatice Rallies and TESTS in Phase B in 2018 as well. We cannot rule that out. We simply have to be on guard and pay close attention to indicators as those "potential" events unfold.

[kingcolex]

back down below $ 8k 
now it's touched $ 7500, I hope it will not go back to the $ 7k price.

Fucking up to $7500 where have you been we were close to $7200 now we're trying over and over to overtake 7600

[Anon136]

You're right.

Just thinking out loud here. If you look at bitcoin in isolation it is limited in quantity. Yes. But if you look at crypto in isolation it is inflating like crazy, coins doubling every fork and brand new ones left right and centre with any arbitrary number of tokens. And some of those are inflationary. I guess just more reasons gold deserves to be in that spot at the base of the pyramid.

On a more positive note. It may not replace gold but it totally freaking owns swift. https://www.coindesk.com/bank-argentina-just-added-bitcoin-cross-border-payments/

[micgoossens]

^^^
So in youre thinking dougs gonna lose the 10k bet

i hope he doesn't

[micgoossens]

back down below $ 8k 
now it's touched $ 7500, I hope it will not go back to the $ 7k price.

Fucking up to $7500 where have you been we were close to $7200 now we're trying over and over to overtake 7600

[Ibian]

Can we go up now like crossing $20k and more

I'm still kicking myself for not selling off the rest of the coin I have loaded on the exchange when it last bounced off $11,500.

Oh well.

That's my mental number for dumping my last batch.

Will re-evaluate the landscape in mid 2021.

Holding out for 1 BTC/Porsche-911-GT3 parity around then...

By 2020 the price will be at least 40k.

[BobLawblaw]

dont get any ideas bob

Eh, these are more fun, TBH, and much cheaper.

Shitting gold flakes is kinda boring, if you ask me.

This stuff is just fabulous for parties.



https://www.etsy.com/listing/260918489/glitter-pills-sht-glitter-flattersky

[criptix]

I strongly agree with what I think is your more general point that A) commodity money is important B) cryptocurrency is not a replacement or substitute for it

Mind explaining why you think commodity money will stay important? Genuinely interested.

Sure. Basically I don't think bitcoin makes a very good reserve asset. It isn't nearly as well suited for a base of the liquidity pyramid as gold is.



Part of what makes it poorly suited as a reserve asset is that technology improves over time. There is a risk that the leading cryptocurrency will always be overturned by new and better technology. Which is a good thing, just not a good thing if you want the properties of a stable long term bottom of the liquidity pyramid reserve asset. Interestingly there is an implication here that if bitcoin can win against all of the other alts and come to soundly dominate this sector it will more closely approximate the utility of gold as a reserve asset. But if it get's overtaken by ethereum or bcrap that could open pandoras box and doubly prove my point.

There is also an existential threat posed to bitcoin from forks that you wouldn't want in a reserve asset.

There is a technological threat, what if the network gets owned? What if it is built on assumptions that turn out to be wrong? It's well safe enough for speculation and payments and building businesses ontop of, but there is enough of a risk in this regard to hamper its utility as an ultra safe long term reserve asset.

TLDR; if you were to insert bitcoin into the pyramid it would fall in-between gold and circulating money, not next to gold, and certainly not beneath it.

You're right.

Just thinking out loud here. If you look at bitcoin in isolation it is limited in quantity. Yes. But if you look at crypto in isolation it is inflating like crazy, coins doubling every fork and brand new ones left right and centre with any arbitrary number of tokens. And some of those are inflationary. I guess just more reasons gold deserves to be in that spot at the base of the pyramid.

There are several mineable asteroids near us that have more gold then planet earth   

[markj113]

There are several mineable asteroids near us that have more gold then planet earth   

There is also gold in the earths core, doesnt mean its accessible or if it is cost effective to do so.

[criptix]

There are several mineable asteroids near us that have more gold then planet earth  

There is also gold in the earths core, doesnt mean its accessible or if it is cost effective to do so.

Oh, i think digging up the core of planet earth would be genius level for sure.

https://www.outerplaces.com/science/item/17778-700-quintillion-dollar-asteroid-space-mining-gold-rush-mars-jupiter


The only thing which would stop such an endavor would be what people call "economic scarcity".

[markj113]

Most asteroids scoped for mining also do not contain gold :

Asteroid    Est. Value (US$)    Est. Profit (US$)    Δv (km/s)    Composition
Ryugu    95 billion    35 billion    4.663    Nickel, iron, cobalt, water, nitrogen, hydrogen, ammonia
1989 ML    14 billion    4 billion    4.888    Nickel, iron, cobalt
Nereus    5 billion    1 billion    4.986    Nickel, iron, cobalt
Didymos    84 billion    22 billion    5.162    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2011 UW158    8 billion    2 billion    5.187    Platinum, nickel, iron, cobalt
Anteros    5570 billion    1250 billion    5.439    Magnesium silicate, aluminum, iron silicate
2001 CC21    147 billion    30 billion    5.636    Magnesium silicate, aluminum, iron silicate
1992 TC    84 billion    17 billion    5.647    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2001 SG10    4 billion    0.6 billion    5.880    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2002 DO3    0.3 billion    0.06 billion    5.894    Nickel, iron, cobalt

Moon rock currently sells at over $50k a gram, you think it would be easier to land there and grab some rock than landings a small asteroid hurtling around.

[BobLawblaw]

Seems like your partner is too emotionally invested in your BTC investment.
<wordy words removed>

How is that my problem ? I'm chill. Just had my blood pressure measured yesterday at an appt and it's the lowest it's been in years.

Retirement is doing wonders for my mental well-being.

No hurry to sell in this market, and, TBH, I can cover my FY18 tax liabilities with other funds if need-be; have eggs in many baskets I can pick from thanks to good financial planning earlier in life.

Either way, I'm expecting Bitcorn to have recovered nicely by the time FY18 tax dues start looming.

If not, oh well. I'll deal with it when the time comes one way or another.

This whole Zen thing is working out pretty well so far...

[criptix]

Most asteroids scoped for mining also do not contain gold :

Asteroid    Est. Value (US$)    Est. Profit (US$)    Δv (km/s)    Composition
Ryugu    95 billion    35 billion    4.663    Nickel, iron, cobalt, water, nitrogen, hydrogen, ammonia
1989 ML    14 billion    4 billion    4.888    Nickel, iron, cobalt
Nereus    5 billion    1 billion    4.986    Nickel, iron, cobalt
Didymos    84 billion    22 billion    5.162    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2011 UW158    8 billion    2 billion    5.187    Platinum, nickel, iron, cobalt
Anteros    5570 billion    1250 billion    5.439    Magnesium silicate, aluminum, iron silicate
2001 CC21    147 billion    30 billion    5.636    Magnesium silicate, aluminum, iron silicate
1992 TC    84 billion    17 billion    5.647    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2001 SG10    4 billion    0.6 billion    5.880    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2002 DO3    0.3 billion    0.06 billion    5.894    Nickel, iron, cobalt

Please read my link and google Psyche 16.

That list on wikipedia is not what i mean.

[bluebits]

$6144 two part betting game.

A) When will $6144 be broken on the way down.

B) When will $6144 be broken back on the way up.

June 10th going down.

30% bounce off of 5,x00 a few weeks later to break it on the way up.


Working backwards from the 'ceiling' is the best way to find the low. Ceiling is the price it can hit without existing in a fresh bullrun (3 years away at best). Where do people put the current ceilings?

20 - ultimate level, out of the question currently
17 - last chance sell stop after the crash, hard to see it going here and stopping
12 - mythical 'resistance' for a 13 style double top, if it couldn't hit it on 2 glades it can't hit it
10 - glade 2.0 top
08 - likely where we are now, this will get shorted and dumped hard here

8k top means it needs to visit a support level well below it that people still believe strongly in, natural guess is the 5,500 level from the wonderous bcash night of magic.

[markj113]

Please read my link and google Psyche 16.

That list on wikipedia is not what i mean.

I have no doubt it will happen at some point in the future, I just dont see it as a significant investment risk during my or my daughters lifetime.

Low earth orbit space tourism hasnt even kicked off yet and thats got to be a lot easier than mining in space.

[realr0ach]

A small possibility buy It may be that people finally realized bitcoin is nothing more than a pump&dump get rich quick ponzi scheme maybe?

Perestroika is coming, goyim.