Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[theymos_away]

Theymos says 3 grand. I'm betting on 3 grand. Sad but true.

$3k is not impossible, but that was not my prediction. I think that:
 - The most recent crash was artificial, driven by very few whales.
 - The market has wanted badly to stabilize for a while, but keeps choosing what turns out to be a too-high price.

So I predict that the price will rise somewhat, maybe a bit above 7k, and then it will either stabilize (in BTC terms...) or *slowly* continue a downward trend. I feel that we are not too far from a sustainable longer-term price: I'd guess 5500 at the lowest. IMO 3k *could* be reached by widespread panic selling, and 1k could be reached if some shit *really* hits the fan, but I consider neither likely.

[mindrust]

Risk management.

"Have you been following your trading rules?"

Rules? What rules? Fuck the rules. Just buy the fucking dip and hodl. That's the only rule you need to know.

Fuck risk management either. I did that shit for a half decade. You don't lose but you don't gain neither. It is not fun. This time we do it right. Time to go all-in.

***
Theymos said $3k only if we follow the 2014 pattern. He didn't say it will happen. $3k is like $150-200 of 2015 though. I agree with that and I also see it is possible. It would be a life time opportunity for us all. (only if you have any FIAT at that time )

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I don’t see us reaching the depths of $3,000 BUT if we do every single one of you should buy at least another 10 bitcoin’s. Remortgage your house, empty your savings, beg, steal, borrow, whatever.

If you get the chance to load up again or even get your first bitcoin’s just do it because we all know bitcoin will have at least another couple of epic bull runs.

I predict $50,000 in late 2020 - mid 2021.

Do you want to miss out on that?

[realr0ach]

It's pretty obvious the single entity who controls the entire bitcoin price that operates on Scamfinex is trying to bleed out longs right now.  This entity is a complete moron and makes all his moves insanely obvious.  Since I want bitcoin to go to zero so we can go back to real money (silver and gold) instead of imaginary, valueless scamtokens, what I need everyone to do is take out a bunch of longs right now so this pump and dump scammer will be forced to walk away from the market and let it implode because he can't raise it while it's over-leveraged.

If he does attempt to do so anyway, the second he attempts to pump and dump bitcoin higher, unload 1/2 of your leverage on the initial rise, then save the other 1/2 to dump on him if he attempts to go higher.  This will destroy the idiot scammers operating on Bitfinex (probably Bitfinex owners themselves) who control this market.  The second their scams fail again, they will probably just steal all customer funds and claim they were hacked for the second time in a row.  Maybe we can actually get them put in prison this time.

[realr0ach]

In case you were wondering, there is no bitcoin market.  The entire thing is just conmen pump and dumpers and scammers scamming scammers:

http://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/dennis-rodman-arrives-in-singapore-to-promote-world-peace-or-to-pump-a-crypto-called-potcoin/

[Asrael999]

If there are exchanges controlling the market it's bit Bitfinex any more, hell they're not even the largest players in tether anymore.
Look at Binance, Okex and Houbi all three of whom have to keep moving about to avoid exchange regulations. If you want dodgy exchanges in the crypto world it's anything that links back to okcoin or any other original Chinese exchange.

[realr0ach]

If there are exchanges controlling the market it's bit Bitfinex any more, hell they're not even the largest players in tether anymore.

BULLSHIT.  Anyone with two brain cells to rub together can watch all other exchanges follow Scamfinex the overwhelming majority of the time whether it's up or downwards.  Just like how on the way down for the recent dump, Scamfinex had a 12 million or so candle while all other exchanges had 0 volume.  Throughout bitcoin's ENTIRE history, the most fraudulent exchange that exists is ALWAYS the market maker, whether it's MtGox, Huobi, or Scamfinex.

The completely fraudulent exchange is always painting the tape with money or coins that don't even exist.  So what the fuck is bitcoin's real price without the tape being painted by fraud 99% of the time?  Usually upwards in most cases.  Bueller? Bueller?

[markj113]

I don’t see us reaching the depths of $3,000 BUT if we do every single one of you should buy at least another 10 bitcoin’s. Remortgage your house, empty your savings, beg, steal, borrow, whatever.

If you get the chance to load up again or even get your first bitcoin’s just do it because we all know bitcoin will have at least another couple of epic bull runs.

I predict $50,000 in late 2020 - mid 2021.

Do you want to miss out on that?

Does that qualify as financial advice because if it does its shit.

Anyone that puts all their worth into one of the most volatile assets on the planet is nothing but a gambling retard.  You might as well walk into a casino and stick the lot on black.

Load up with as much cash as you can afford to lose.

[realr0ach]

Anyone that puts all their worth into one of the most volatile assets on the planet is nothing but a gambling retard.  You might as well walk into a casino and stick the lot on black.

Nothing wrong with going all in on something if you actually know it's near the floor, but bitcoin has no real floor.  It has a pseudo cost of production floor that's recursive based on it's own demand.  Demand lowers, then it's floor also collapses.  This is NOT the case in real assets like silver.  Even if the demand collapsed for silver, the cost of production floor doesn't move, because it's not a recursive system.  Recursive price dynamic = garbage and obviously not a store of value.

Combine recursive price dynamic with no intrinsic value and other things like no valid Schelling point and you might as well just shoot yourself in the face because you're guaranteed to see enormous implosions on a constant basis making the entire thing nothing more than an eternal pump and dump by design.  Until everyone gets tired of dealing with something that's the equivalent of one of those Doge ponzi websites and just walks away and it fades to obscurity.

[El duderino_]

its good that @ these days belgium played good football with eden hazard in the BIG role .... see him going to be the best player on the tournament.....

so a little joy when prices going down ... full focus WK football with a few BTC bets here and there but nothing to crazy just for a little more excitment

[Rosewater Foundation]

Theymos says 3 grand. I'm betting on 3 grand. Sad but true.

$3k is not impossible, but that was not my prediction. I think that:
 - The most recent crash was artificial, driven by very few whales.
 - The market has wanted badly to stabilize for a while, but keeps choosing what turns out to be a too-high price.

So I predict that the price will rise somewhat, maybe a bit above 7k, and then it will either stabilize (in BTC terms...) or *slowly* continue a downward trend. I feel that we are not too far from a sustainable longer-term price: I'd guess 5500 at the lowest. IMO 3k *could* be reached by widespread panic selling, and 1k could be reached if some shit *really* hits the fan, but I consider neither likely.

Thank you for the clarification.
(I'm still betting 3 grand.  )

[Majormax]

I don’t see us reaching the depths of $3,000 BUT if we do every single one of you should buy at least another 10 bitcoin’s. Remortgage your house, empty your savings, beg, steal, borrow, whatever.

If you get the chance to load up again or even get your first bitcoin’s just do it because we all know bitcoin will have at least another couple of epic bull runs.

I predict $50,000 in late 2020 - mid 2021.

Do you want to miss out on that?

Does that qualify as financial advice because if it does its shit.

Anyone that puts all their worth into one of the most volatile assets on the planet is nothing but a gambling retard.  You might as well walk into a casino and stick the lot on black.

Load up with as much cash as you can afford to lose.

Dead right.  BTC is still a gambling asset. Maybe it always will be.

Yes, there is a chance it will become a global currency / store of value , but the other 3 scenarios are :

1. Failure of the blockchain in some way.  

2. Always remaining a gambling chip.

3. Be displaced by another Digital Currency/ DLT Asset.


The current bear market has a long way to run.  My own guess is there is a 50% chance of it ever acheiving $20k, and then maybe not until 2020 at earliest.


It is worth keeping a % of portfolio assets in BTC (like gold, as advisers will tell you, up to 10%).

[vapourminer]

 I am looking for advices of the kinds of car that the bitcoin folks recommend (aside from the cliche laMBo!). currently drizing a handa CR-V.  Your thoughts appreciated!

needs to be 4WD. after all, bitcoiners need to get to where theyre going no matter what is in between point a and b.

say, this Mercedes AMG G63, 580+ HP, just the thing for off road jaunts. even says "BITURBO" on the side lol.



https://www.mercedes-amg.com/en/vehicles/g-class/suv/g63.html

[JayJuanGee]

Theymos says 3 grand. I'm betting on 3 grand. Sad but true.

$3k is not impossible, but that was not my prediction. I think that:
 - The most recent crash was artificial, driven by very few whales.
 - The market has wanted badly to stabilize for a while, but keeps choosing what turns out to be a too-high price.

So I predict that the price will rise somewhat, maybe a bit above 7k, and then it will either stabilize (in BTC terms...) or *slowly* continue a downward trend. I feel that we are not too far from a sustainable longer-term price: I'd guess 5500 at the lowest. IMO 3k *could* be reached by widespread panic selling, and 1k could be reached if some shit *really* hits the fan, but I consider neither likely.

Thank you for the clarification.
(I'm still betting 3 grand.  )

You party poop!!!  

When is the $3k coming?  In the next few months?  This calendar year?  Before the end of 2019 or some other approximate timeframe?  

In order to prepare for what you believe is likely to happen (which you should do, right?), did you sell all or part of your coins at a profit?  just break even? or some other calamity?

[realr0ach]

It is worth keeping a % of portfolio assets in BTC (like gold, as advisers will tell you, up to 10%).

Supposedly the best peforming silver and gold allocation over time is 25-30%, not the 10% number people toss around.  When every asset on earth is in a giant bubble except silver and gold, and the world economy is on the verge of blowing up, going higher isn't a bad idea when there's no other good options anyway.

[JayJuanGee]

My own guess is there is a 50% chance of it ever acheiving $20k, and then maybe not until 2020 at earliest.

You realize that statements like these are really conservative, and very long term bearish about bitcoin... which causes me to conclude that you have some lack of appreciation for bitcoin's potential upside.

I do agree with you that the higher the expected future price, the lower the probability that it is going to happen, but  it seems to me that when you use words like "ever" in your prediction, you are attempting to predict too many legs in a chain of future events that you have to be nearly completely speculating about since it is nearly impossible to accurately predict more than a few legs into the future at a time... and the further out you go the more any prediction is going to be based on a lot of factors currently unknown.

Hopefully your bearishness is not rubbing too much off into me... 

[greensheep]

why is it that when BTC is in heavy waters all kinds of doom scenario's are spread.
And why is that when BTC in clear waters the sky is the limit.
IMAO we're somewhere in the middle now, and will be for some time.
Last drop as theymos said seems unnatural, most recent FUD about subpoena's being sent to multiple amercian exchanges at about the same time seems like perfect timing.

[Majormax]

My own guess is there is a 50% chance of it ever acheiving $20k, and then maybe not until 2020 at earliest.

You realize that statements like these are really conservative, and very long term bearish about bitcoin... which causes me to conclude that you have some lack of appreciation for bitcoin's potential upside.

I do agree with you that the higher the expected future price, the lower the probability that it is going to happen, but  it seems to me that when you use words like "ever" in your prediction, you are attempting to predict too many legs in a chain of future events that you have to be nearly completely speculating about since it is nearly impossible to accurately predict more than a few legs into the future at a time... and the further out you go the more any prediction is going to be based on a lot of factors currently unknown.

Hopefully your bearishness is not rubbing too much off into me... 

I entirely agree with you !

50% is the probability I am assigning. 'Ever' is not a prediction, just a part of one of the possibilities.

Of course, I omitted to say that another scenario (part of the other 50% if you like), is that $100k is achieved before 2022.

All these numbers and time frames are speculation, yes, and subject to evolving circumstance. That is what this thread is for.

Hopefully I can present ideas that give others food for thought, and also prevent ppl from making errors in trading by being too myopic. My apparent bearishness is only a comparitive with general bullishness, and the greatest mistake IMO would be too become too mentally committed to a bullish outlook (and thus disillusionment) when we are merely in a long bear market, which will eventually turn round.

Low predictions of $2-3k are merely realistic scenarios, and are helping to avoid the mental pain of HODling in a downtrand.

[mindrust]

why is it that when BTC is in heavy waters all kinds of doom scenario's are spread.
And why is that when BTC in clear waters the sky is the limit.
IMAO we're somewhere in the middle now, and will be for some time.
Last drop as theymos said seems unnatural, most recent FUD about subpoena's being sent to multiple amercian exchanges at about the same time seems like perfect timing.

Doomsayers are usually the ones who dumped their stash and wanting you to do the same so they can buy from a lower price. Don't listen to them. Buy the fucking dip and hold.

I've played that game before and got burned because of a bull run.

Don't be a sucker. Be on the safe side.

If you haven't sold from 15k+ or even 10k+... why even bother now?

[El duderino_]

for all last pages  

but offcourse thats beautifull all can have there own opinion , but seems to be the case when we go down all say negative and when its bull rally ,nothing can't stand in the way of the higher prices    


my father is maybe one of the worst .... is as long in BTC as myself  never said anything good from 250-300 to 1500 allways bad feeling lot of sell offs ... than still with a very healthy amount in the bull rally to 20k "nothing is better than BTC" ... didn't sell a lot @ that time LOL     price goes down and panic sell offcourse around 8000-9000 lot off sideways from there and yesterday after the recent DIP he was sitting in the office chair saying to my brother BTC will never go back to higher prices and its finisht and.....


for many in here do not be my father in the BTC story   i am happy i am the biggest BTC bagholder @our place