Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Shut up Hairy!  Don't jinx this with your prognostications.

It would be nice if bitcoin would go into a bit of a punishing phase.... to punish some of those folks waiting for cheaper coins... or those folks who are waiting for the alt coins to bring them lambos... .  I just don't know if bitcoin is quite ready for punishing phase.. but it would be nice.. a bit of a fantasy of mine to re-live the late 2017 upwards price movements that took a lot of waiting for lower prices folks for a bit of a surprise.

By the way, I seem to recall that a bit more than a week ago, Hairy had said that he had expected a bit of a pump to $7k or even $7,200-ish.. because BTC prices in the lower $6ks seemed to be a bit "oversold."... something like that.

Ahh 2017. The happy times. We all knew it was nuts though. I dont think we will see its like again though as the the shorters are a force now.

Are you mischaracterizing on purpose? 

If you have been around bitcoin long enough, you will realize that 2017 is not an aberration and bitcoin has gone into a punishment mode on numerous occasions.  Yes, of course, we are in a correction period, but a major point of my post was to suggest that if bitcoin returns into punishing mode then those shorters that you proclaim to be "a force" are gonna get reckt, and that is what I was hoping for, even if the odds might be against such, at the moment, perhaps?

We need to bust ~7500 to break the trend line and 10k to confirm the end of the bear.

Of course, BTC prices have been down for a while, so it seems likely to take a bit of effort to break above various resistance points and to possibly reverse the correction or to bounce out of the consolidation range.... Yes, bear has won the day down to $6k, and they have made at least 4 attempts at breaking below $6k.. so their difficulties getting below $6k could also lend support to the bottom already being in... NOT safe to be shorting when the bottom is already in, if that ends up being the case.

This latest rally could just be another dead cat but unlike the April and July bounces, its more sure and steady unlike the 4 pump days of the other 2.

Yes, of course, could be, could be.  If I assert that I hope for more up, I am not saying that the odds are great that prices will be able to or are ready to break upwards.. sometimes it takes a bit of movement and continued movement in order to reverse moment or to cause momentum.

I had to Sodl 50% of my stash (real world bills) so there is a great chance that this is the bottom.

O.k.  So you were over invested?  50% is a pretty large amount to sell... Sold at a profit, I hope?  I understand that sometimes riding out the waves can take a quite a bit of effort, and bills certainly come due.. so one thing is planning for the bills, including emergency situations, and another thing is actually recognizing whether there is enough cushion in the plan... so it can be understandable that reality sneaks up and all of us have to keep in mind that we gotta have some cushion in our cash flow plan to cover anticipated (and unanticipated) expenses to be able to ride through potential long down waves, including a possibility that bitcoin could be down for a couple years longer... even while some of us are hoping (including yours truly) for some upwards action --- and even punishing of those who failed to invest or are in the BTC shorting business.

I knew i had to sell sometime this year but I was holding out as long as could. It sure felt so wrong though when when i clicked the sell button.

I also understand that you can plan cashflow for 6-18 months in advance and then attempt to see how thing play out, and sometimes it just not possible to stick with the original plan because some aspects of the cashflow are not comfortably playing out.  Anyhow, a lessoned learned is that it can be a sign of over investing if you have to sell a large amount of your holdings at a time that you do not prefer, and sometimes there can still be ways to ride it out... such as selling 10% or 20% rather than 50%... but anyhow each of us have to come to our determinations about our own situation and hopefully learn lessons from our mistakes... yet that does not take away from the desire of myself, and likely others who would like bitcoin to go into a punishing phase  of upwards movement because surely we have been visiting the $6k territory a lot in the last 6+ months.. going back to early February.. and so in some sense, there can be some feeling that BTC has spent enough time in this price arena... let's move onwards and upwards.. even if some peeps might not yet be ready.. even when there has been several allowable preparation months.

[elrippos friend]

another way to 'fit' the 2014 fractal lol

I love this one 

[Karartma1]

^
By than minimum pricess are 1 satochi/dollar there or No cent pricess anymore

Mic, please......
Satoshi 

WoW capitol mistake
Thanks for correcting SIR (have a free day @barca and a few wines as cheap labrusco’s and with the sun feeling the little alcohol ....) So let the alcohol take the blame on that one 

Don't worry
enjoy  

[elrippos friend]

Long short ratio

Long / short ratio still close to record high shorts according to my preferred calculation (lower bar = longs / shorts).  Some stung by the latest price hike but lots of squeeze fuel left.  



Accelerated recovery model

If you believe in an accelerated 2018 recovery (which I don't) then arguably we should be tracking the light blue line.  Light green line shows our current performance.  It's not completely out of the question however.  And nothing would make me happier than to be wrong on this point.  We need to jump to $9k.  Squeeze fuel would be one way to get there, which means a clean break of the current down trend line requiring a price of about $7500 (downtrend line currently sitting ~$7400).



Accelerated recovery model - zoomed out

This is what happens when you zoom out on the accelerated 2018 recovery.  Yeah.

I am bullish on this one  

[elrippos friend]

such bearish very newb wow

The full acceptance of BTC seems to be VERY enthusiastic, but ok, let's see how it goes 

[BTCtrader71]

Back at that beautiful place of having no fucking clue what to do. Not to say I am unhappy. As per usual sitting with a more then advisabley large position for what I have saved, but I have been holding like a good little boy and it damn sure has paid off.

The slow walk up to break 7k makes me feel good, but now I once again hear that nagging evil feeling that I should sell and take profit and stop being such a greedy bastard. Problem is I believe too much and sometimes that gets in the way of making good decisions.

1) Set up a ladder of equally-spaced limit sell orders above current price, each for the same small increment of your stash.
2) Set up a ladder of equally-spaced limit buy orders below current price, each for the $USD value of the sell increment above it.
3) Harvest the volatility.
4) Profit. And relax, knowing that you are set up to maximize returns in any environment.

Well, that's my suggestion anyway.

In my opinion this is exactly the right way to do it if you're a long term bull. And assuming you don't have to sell sooner to pay the bills.

Although when it came time for me to sell during the 20k run-up, I sold less than my plan told me to. You know what stopped me? The thought of triggering capital gains.

[aaroque2003]

When one Satoshi equals one dollar, how will I pay for something that only costs 1 cent?  😉

By then we would already have a fully developed LN..... that will include Milisats... 6 more decimals positions added... on test mode now... so will be 1.00000000000000 .....  

[jbreher]

Observations from reading https://think.ing.com/uploads/reports/ING_International_Survey_Mobile_Banking_2018.pdf

1) "Fewer than one in 10 in Europe (9%) at the time of the survey indicate owning cryptocurrency ... One in four (25%) in Europe indicate they expect to own cryptocurrency at some time in the future"
So at a time when ~18% of Bitcoin remains to be mined, we see demand expected to triple. Works for me.

2) "We find that only about a third (35%) in Europe agree Bitcoin is the future of spending online. A similar share (32%) of respondents agree cryptocurrency is the future of investing."
Only? A third of everybody thinks that Bitcoin "is the future" of both spending online and of investing. And how big are these total addressable markets again? Thought so. I can certainly live with that.

...gotta wear shades.

[jbreher]

1) Set up a ladder of equally-spaced limit sell orders above current price, each for the same small increment of your stash.
2) Set up a ladder of equally-spaced limit buy orders below current price, each for the $USD value of the sell increment above it.
3) Harvest the volatility.
4) Profit. And relax, knowing that you are set up to maximize returns in any environment.

Well, that's my suggestion anyway.

In my opinion this is exactly the right way to do it if you're a long term bull. And assuming you don't have to sell sooner to pay the bills.

My plan assumes you're already sitting on a stake big enough for all anticipated lifetime needs, given your expectation of eventual Bitcoin price.

Although when it came time for me to sell during the 20k run-up, I sold less than my plan told me to. You know what stopped me? The thought of triggering capital gains.

I sold more than the above plan. I recognized the likelihood of the blowoff top, and I wanted to buy my lambo. Even recognizing the spike would be followed by an imminent retrace, I probably would not have accelerated my sells if I did not have an earmarked expenditure. For the next spike -- whenever it materializes -- will dwarf this last one.

Capital gains are a natural result of profits - they're a lot more affordable than a 2/3 haircut.

[vroom]

When one Satoshi equals one dollar, how will I pay for something that only costs 1 cent?  😉

By then we would already have a fully developed LN..... that will include Milisats... 6 more decimals positions added... on test mode now... so will be 1.00000000000000 .....  

In venezuale they delete zeros and bitcoin will add zeroes if necessary

[elrippos friend]

Observations from reading https://think.ing.com/uploads/reports/ING_International_Survey_Mobile_Banking_2018.pdf

1) "Fewer than one in 10 in Europe (9%) at the time of the survey indicate owning cryptocurrency ... One in four (25%) in Europe indicate they expect to own cryptocurrency at some time in the future"
So at a time when ~18% of Bitcoin remains to be mined, we see demand expected to triple. Works for me.

2) "We find that only about a third (35%) in Europe agree Bitcoin is the future of spending online. A similar share (32%) of respondents agree cryptocurrency is the future of investing."
Only? A third of everybody thinks that Bitcoin "is the future" of both spending online and of investing. And how big are these total addressable markets again? Thought so. I can certainly live with that.

...gotta wear shades.

To 1) If the demand doubles in two years the price will be likely to multiple by factor 10-20, can also live with that  

To 2) How many do believe that that is now the case, i believe 3-5%. If the demand multiplies by 10, i think we all know what happens to the price  

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

 this meeting could set off a BULL run   

[JayJuanGee]

IF we repeat the 2013 twin peak pattern after 1st halving, and adjusting for extended peak-to-peak timeline (22months:30months), we could be looking at final 2nd halving bull run blow-off phase beginning soonish and peaking out ~early-Feb 2019 (48months:65months) ... slower but in the same ratio.

That would be great!!!  I will vote for that version.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

in the future many will need the consultant  

[JayJuanGee]

another way to 'fit' the 2014 fractal lol

I vote for this.

[El duderino_]

^
who wouldn't 

[JayJuanGee]

such bearish very newb wow

What is the source?

[JayJuanGee]

Back at that beautiful place of having no fucking clue what to do. Not to say I am unhappy. As per usual sitting with a more then advisabley large position for what I have saved, but I have been holding like a good little boy and it damn sure has paid off.

The slow walk up to break 7k makes me feel good, but now I once again hear that nagging evil feeling that I should sell and take profit and stop being such a greedy bastard. Problem is I believe too much and sometimes that gets in the way of making good decisions. It's one of those things I suppose. Even if I hold and it dips back who cares? I can wait for however long and it will return to a higher price so no one will stop me from profiting dammit!!

What's the outlook short term in your opinion gents?

Since you are showing anxiety, your current formula does not seem to be working.

Accordingly, you need to figure out some kind of sell formula that works for you.

Currently, I am in a system that sells about 1% to 1.5% for every 10% that the price rises, with price increments that suit my current feelings - maybe every $200 to $1,000 increments, depending on where the price is at.

Of course, you do not need to pick percentages or increments that are similar to mine, but the fact that you are showing some anxiety seems to demonstrate that you need to consider some kind of system that will make you more comfortable to shave off a little profits here and there.

On a personal level, with such ongoing bitcoin volatility, I do end up using some of my sell proceeds to buy back, so it does not seem like I am wasting the fiat that tends to accumulate, and also after you do this kind of sell on the way up and buy on the way down incrementalism for a while, you tend to end up stacking up both fiat and bitcoins in order that you have some bitcoins on the top end and some fiat on the bottom end to be prepared for either BTC price direction.   

[JayJuanGee]

I could live with the ARI PAUL prediction that somewhere in 2018 we Will see BTC trading @6000$ as iT would be trading @ 60000 $
So the first 50% of the prediction we have reached i would say the other 50% doesn’t need to complete like half or So would be more than amazing from This point  

I thought that I heard him interview about that recently, and he had to modify his prediction because he was anticipating UP before DOWN, and right after his prediction, price went down to $6k... accordingly, he is no longer so optimistic about $60k in 2018... something like that.

[El duderino_]

I could live with the ARI PAUL prediction that somewhere in 2018 we Will see BTC trading @6000$ as iT would be trading @ 60000 $
So the first 50% of the prediction we have reached i would say the other 50% doesn’t need to complete like half or So would be more than amazing from This point  

I thought that I heard him interview about that recently, and he had to modify his prediction because he was anticipating UP before DOWN, and right after his prediction, price went down to $6k... accordingly, he is no longer so optimistic about $60k in 2018... something like that.

Yeah i heard the podcast with polk as well but i Just say iT cause he said 6k as 60k So half the job was done for little over half the year So iT needs to start up those bull engines and give us Some popcorn times to be in.....