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Question: Probability that we've seen the bottom of this bear market:
0% - 4 (3.1%)
1-5% - 4 (3.1%)
6-10% - 1 (0.8%)
11-15% - 1 (0.8%)
16-20% - 2 (1.6%)
21-25% - 2 (1.6%)
26-30% - 2 (1.6%)
31-35% - 1 (0.8%)
36-40% - 5 (3.9%)
41-45% - 2 (1.6%)
46-50% - 6 (4.7%)
51-55% - 7 (5.4%)
56-60% - 2 (1.6%)
61-65% - 2 (1.6%)
66-70% - 9 (7%)
71-75% - 7 (5.4%)
76-80% - 10 (7.8%)
81-85% - 12 (9.3%)
86-90% - 10 (7.8%)
91-95% - 7 (5.4%)
96-99% - 8 (6.2%)
100% - 25 (19.4%)
Total Voters: 129

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21126248 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (18 posts by 10 users deleted.)
BobLawblaw
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August 29, 2018, 01:33:58 AM

On ass-eating.

https://twitter.com/Aztek_btc/status/1034595023692554240





https://twitter.com/postersofcrypto/status/1033104419649335296

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JimboToronto
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August 29, 2018, 01:45:51 AM

What colour is yours?

Green and orange.

Rosewater Foundation
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August 29, 2018, 01:46:45 AM


Swag. Cool
savetherainforest
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August 29, 2018, 01:53:05 AM



How does one exchange some ass eating for some pumps?? "Submit your 'ass eating' videos on website for donations!"

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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August 29, 2018, 01:57:12 AM

During these past decades the profession of eating ass has markedly diminished. It used to pay very well to eat ass, out in the open air. But alas this is no longer the case. We live in a different world now.
JayJuanGee
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August 29, 2018, 01:57:38 AM

1) Set up a ladder of equally-spaced limit sell orders above current price, each for the same small increment of your stash.
2) Set up a ladder of equally-spaced limit buy orders below current price, each for the $USD value of the sell increment above it.
3) Harvest the volatility.
4) Profit. And relax, knowing that you are set up to maximize returns in any environment.

Well, that's my suggestion anyway.

In my opinion this is exactly the right way to do it if you're a long term bull. And assuming you don't have to sell sooner to pay the bills.

My plan assumes you're already sitting on a stake big enough for all anticipated lifetime needs, given your expectation of eventual Bitcoin price.

Quote
Although when it came time for me to sell during the 20k run-up, I sold less than my plan told me to. You know what stopped me? The thought of triggering capital gains.

I sold more than the above plan. I recognized the likelihood of the blowoff top,

For me, just sticking with the incremental sell plan created way more cash than I was ready, willing and able to spend, so that higher than expected amount of cash was well placed as a reserve for any kind of severe correction, which we ended up having.  I am still in kind of a mental dilemma whether our last BTC price peak had resulted in a blow off top.  I will concede if the correction lasts for more than a year and if we are in the below $10k doldrums for more than a year.. then perhaps last year's BTC price peak could be fairly classified as a blow off top.  However, if we get something else, and even perhaps a return to another price peak that rises us above $10k before February 2019, then maybe our real blow off top for this exponential growth period (and perhaps series of peaks like 2013) is yet to come... which could mean that $100k is within grasp.


and I wanted to buy my lambo.

I am more likely to consider a figurative lambo than an actual lambo.. .because even though they do seem to be a bit of a sassy show off car, it just seems a bit too much for my personality.... Although the next time around, if we get another peak after going above $19k we could get into a kind of figurative lambo territory for myself , but really just to throw money as pocket change, would perhaps have to wait until the 2022-2024-ish price peak(s).  At a certain point, a lambo could be a kind of pocket change? 

Even recognizing the spike would be followed by an imminent retrace, I probably would not have accelerated my sells if I did not have an earmarked expenditure. For the next spike -- whenever it materializes -- will dwarf this last one.

I think that you are saying something that describes both thoughts and a position of increasing wealth that seems to be similar to mine.  I could actually go out and buy a whole lot of luxury items, and that would likely be in contemplation of a BTC price that rose and had come back down, but still came back down to such a level that I am still considerably more wealthy than I had expected to be.

If you think about it, a peak at $19k was about 3-5x higher than any of us had reasonably considered our spike to be.. so maybe we could have reasonably thought that the 2017 spike would be $4k to $8k or something like that, and then ramp up for a run at $10k in the next exponential trend, but then when we actually got a spike to $19k our retracement actually brought us back down to the high levels in which we may have reasonably thought to have been the top, rather than the bottom.  It is reasonable to NOT take too many profits and to see what is going to happen, and it is also reasonable to expect that there remain decent chances that in the near future that we are going to experience another spike above $19k that goes decently high... but hey, even if such spike does not happen, there still seem to be a lot of opportunities to cash out BTC and receive extensive profits, whether those profits are shy of $19k, just in territories above or 3x $19k or even into the $100k plus territories that also seem reasonably likely whether it takes 4months or 4 years or some other variant.


Capital gains are a natural result of profits - they're a lot more affordable than a 2/3 haircut.

No problem trying to figure out ways to pay less taxes, but if there are reasonable lifestyle purchases, such as a lambo or even a lambo substitute, better to just declare everything outright rather than spending too much energy to try to save on taxes but then miss opportunities to enjoy the fruits of your years of investment and HODLing.
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August 29, 2018, 02:04:05 AM

Your techniques of self-regimentation are remarkable. I've just been eating ass for the past 8 months. Oh well, live and learn. One would imagine.
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August 29, 2018, 02:07:09 AM


top post . sent u a merit
Quoting the obvious trolls are bad enough.

[/ignored]
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no FOMO


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August 29, 2018, 02:10:36 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

guys, guys

the cephalopod fetish stuff was bad enough, can we not hold forth on salad tossing please?
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August 29, 2018, 02:12:16 AM


SO swag.

But wait.. is that "green" really ... umm... green?
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August 29, 2018, 02:14:21 AM

Tentacle teal? Sea-beast cyan?
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August 29, 2018, 02:14:38 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

More on ass eating:

https://www.thealternativedaily.com/donkey-meat-found-tainted-fox-meat-wal-mart-stores-china-whats-meat/

It seems that ass you're going down on might be a fox.
JayJuanGee
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August 29, 2018, 02:23:32 AM

I could live with the ARI PAUL prediction that somewhere in 2018 we Will see BTC trading @6000$ as iT would be trading @ 60000 $
So the first 50% of the prediction we have reached i would say the other 50% doesn’t need to complete like half or So would be more than amazing from This point  Grin

I thought that I heard him interview about that recently, and he had to modify his prediction because he was anticipating UP before DOWN, and right after his prediction, price went down to $6k... accordingly, he is no longer so optimistic about $60k in 2018... something like that.

Yeah i heard the podcast with polk as well but i Just say iT cause he said 6k as 60k So half the job was done for little over half the year So iT needs to start up those bull engines and give us Some popcorn times to be in.....

By the way, I did not hear Ari Paul interview with Doug Polk, but instead,  I believe that I got it from a Let's talk bitcoin interview.  

So, I guess that I m just saying that if you want to assert a theory that is a $6k and $60k in 2018, it could not be based on what Ari Paul said because he meant such dynamics in a different way.. and so therefore, your theory has become a different one.. with differing premises.

Sure, $6k and $60k could still happen, and I don't have any real problem with it happening, but I would give it pretty small odds, and I actually agree with Paul that the $60k and $6k in 2018 thesis would have had a higher probability if the $60k would have come first.  Now that we had a pretty decent correction that went all the way down to $6k, quite soon after Paul had made his $60k and $6k prediction, it seems that both the next exponential upspurt has been delayed a bit, but also that when it goes up the next time, it will have been fueled enough that there are greater chances that it will be able to go higher than $60k rather than running out of fuel at $60k.
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August 29, 2018, 02:39:19 AM

I am comfortable with the idea of us hitting $200k on the next spike.   
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August 29, 2018, 02:41:29 AM

More on ass eating:

https://www.thealternativedaily.com/donkey-meat-found-tainted-fox-meat-wal-mart-stores-china-whats-meat/

It seems that ass you're going down on might be a fox.

 What?  There are only 400 Walmart store in all of China?  There are 563 in Texas alone!  I wonder which country produces the goods sold in Walmart China stores...
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August 29, 2018, 02:51:36 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

More on ass eating:

https://www.thealternativedaily.com/donkey-meat-found-tainted-fox-meat-wal-mart-stores-china-whats-meat/

It seems that ass you're going down on might be a fox.

 What?  There are only 400 Walmart store in all of China?  There are 563 in Texas alone!  I wonder which country produces the goods sold in Walmart China stores...

Quote
"Inmates in the Yingshan Prison in Guangxi, China are working 14 hours daily with no break/rest at noon, continue working overtime until 12 midnight, and whoever doesn’t finish his work will be beaten."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4461802/Woman-finds-note-Chinese-prisoner-Walmart-purse.html
JayJuanGee
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August 29, 2018, 03:06:10 AM

His calculations for a 56k modem is in bytes when it should be in bits.



OMG it should be "Noob Craig S Wright", not "Dr. Craig S Wright". Too bad I can't troll his tweets anymore as he has blocked me from following him. Roll Eyes

As soon as people are using titles in order to convey their messages, they have to lose a bit of credibility, just for that nonsense.

[edited out]

Isn't it possible to create more than one account on Twitter?  Cheesy

Sounds interesting, will try it right now. Wink

I'll keep the Twitter handle of new account something like @the_sole_purpose_of_this_account_is_to_troll_noob_craig_wright

The proposed name of your new account should help you from NOT getting blocked, if that is your objective.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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August 29, 2018, 03:10:44 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

His calculations for a 56k modem is in bytes when it should be in bits.



OMG it should be "Noob Craig S Wright", not "Dr. Craig S Wright". Too bad I can't troll his tweets anymore as he has blocked me from following him. Roll Eyes

As soon as people are using titles in order to convey their messages, they have to lose a bit of credibility, just for that nonsense.

[edited out]

Isn't it possible to create more than one account on Twitter?  Cheesy

Sounds interesting, will try it right now. Wink

I'll keep the Twitter handle of new account something like @the_sole_purpose_of_this_account_is_to_troll_noob_craig_wright

The proposed name of your new account should help you from NOT getting blocked, if that is your objective.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Craig Wright is a fucking dumbass hack.  The fact he has gotten this much attention is embarrassing for the community.

But in the long run it is an inconsequential bump in the road.

He will be disgraced.

Then...

He will be forgotten.
JayJuanGee
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August 29, 2018, 03:33:57 AM

I am comfortable with the idea of us hitting $200k on the next spike.  

Let's say that there are graduations in predictions that are more conservative and more adventurous.

Maybe we can put the bears and shorters aside, just for the moment, and consider the bitcoin bull cases.

1) We already know that there are bitcoin bullish folks who are so timid and have so little confidence in bitcoin, that there are going to be variations of them dumping all the way up to $19k and without even confidence that bitcoin will reach $19k again.  Surely, those can still end up being short term profitable positions to take, because we don't know how long it is going to break through all the resistances from here to $19k, but likely once we get above the $16,500 arena, there is going to be decent likelihood of breaking above $20k soon thereafter.. but even a month or more could seem like a lifetime to the bitcoin tepid.

2) Probably the second category of folks are really o.k with a kind of 25% to 100% beyond the previous ATH - but to me that territory really seems unrealistic in terms of sell territory... and seems like a lot of those folks are going to be wrong because bitcoin has a very great at least a 2x passed the previous ATH.. so seems a bit imprudent to be cashing out at least 2x passed the previous ATH.

3) Here's where it becomes more dicey because of the seeming reasonableness of it, and that is anywhere in the 2x to 5x territory.  Surely it is going to seem reasonable to be cashing out decently in this $40k to $100k territory, and surely it seems plausible that we are going to be getting decent resistance in the $100k territory - however, I might be a bit with you, Hairy, that if BTC gets such momentum that it is able to get into a close to $100k range, then breaking through $100k might make $200k relatively easy, and therefore a reasonable expectation... Alright, you kind of talked me into $200k as being almost more reasonable than $100k, because once we get to $100k, gosh there is surely likely to be momentum and FOMO that is quite difficult to contain, even when there are a lot of folks who want to cash out, the ones wanting "in" then become quite likely to out number the ones wanting "out"
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August 29, 2018, 04:01:20 AM

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