Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

^^
Yeah indeed .... even from 200-300 to the price of today is incredible

I started at an average cost per BTC around $1,200 in late 2013, but that did not last long because as we know the price continued to drop for about a year and then get stuck in a low point of mid $200s for nearly another year, so buying as the price came down brought down my average cost per BTC to about $500 by early 2017. In early 2017, I had some phone porting hacker issues when the BTC prices were in the $1,100 arena which caused my cost per BTC to rise to over $700 (due to losses)..... ..

I guess that my point is even if any of us BTC HODLers have some screw ups along the way that bring up our average cost per BTC, just from being in BTC for so long and striving towards BTC accumulation we still are likely sitting fairly pretty from the great BTC price appreciation.... even if we may not have received the full value of that two year long BTC price appreciation that started from $250 in mid to late 2015.

I understand that there are also some BTC HODLers that might be in the $2k to $5k per BTC costs, and even they are not in a bad place with current BTC price dynamics and the threats that the price might go lower.. (but it might not, also... hahahaha)

The HODLers who are in the red, right now (might have average costs per BTC in the $8k to $19k range, but it really seems a lack of commitment to BTC if anyone has not been able to bring down their cost per BTC during the last more than 6 months), probably need to HODL and continue to buy BTC to continue to attempt to bring down their average cost per BTC, and it seems quite likely that just a few years down the road and perhaps as long as 5-10 years they are quite likely to experience decent price appreciation that outcompetes various traditional investments (no guarantee of course, but strategy and plan can help to increase the odds of HODLers and their position in the upcoming world that is likely to include more BTC awareness into the future).

I'm not disciplined enough to know my average cost, would be intresting to know though. First time I bought bitcoin was coming down from its MtGox $32 dollar all time high and I was in the red for ages afterwards because it kept going all the way down to $2. However I lost my entire first stash in the bitcoinica hack. Last time I bought was in the $250 range. I sold off a bunch too early though still at extremely good profit. I don't think the strategy of buying all the way down and selling all the way up works for me. I like to try and time bottoms to accumulate then mostly hodl, if I can i will try to diversify on tops. That might mean only a few trades in a few years. Banking problems hindered me on the last top. Its a constant learning experience.

Ultimately, I agree that you need to tailorize a strategy that is comfortable for you and attempt to learn from that strategy, and perhaps bitcoin does have some differences from traditional kinds of investments, but my personal approach has been to attempt to employ strategies that are similar to what I had been using in my traditional investing - such as dollar cost averaging; however, some differences that I have found with bitcoin has been the 24/7 access and really various abilities to really make micro-trades with little to no fees that have caused me to develop some additional and what I would characterize as complementary strategies that make dollar cost averaging one of three legs - rather than the previous primary leg.

Sure there are some other strategies too, that carry through, which are things like managing your cash flow so that you are not overinvesting and living within your means, and then just having various targets.

So yeah, part of the anal aspect of creating targets and plans and revising plans ends up having some kind of decent approximation of your various costs and establishing various means to verify whether your wealth is growing from the strategy including figuring out how much certain actions might be costing you which could also affect short term plans about how to cover some of those extra costs or to roll them into your overall expenses to help to figure out your next moves and set ups and what thresholds are going to trigger the next moves.

One issue that I have with any strategy that attempts to identify tops and bottoms is that it seems to require too much attempt to rely on a large quantity of inference (from missing information) and too much necessity to try to figure out the meaning and weight of various pieces of information including game theory movs of other people that I don't know and who could be motivated by factors way beyond my ability to understand. Yeah, of course there are macro-tools, too, but I would just rather NOT be attempt to place too much emphasis on attempting to predict price direction as long as I have established a plan for either price direction, then I consider that approach to be way less stressful for myself and just inline with my past practice and what seems to be my personality preferences.

So, my question for you, afbitcoins, includes whether you believe that your system is working for you and are you learning and tweaking your system, and are you really prepared for either up or down? Perhaps you have learned a bit from some of your prior experiences to just HODL some portion of your coins.. whether it is 25% or some other amount that you believe to be reasonable, but instead it seems that you are inclined to "play" with nearly the whole amount of your stash and attempt to predict price directions? I do understand that sometimes you can win pretty BIG with that strategy, but still seems really difficult to either predict tops or bottoms or to get anywhere near close to predicting without suffering quite a few opportunity costs by being too much out when you want to be in or too much in when you want to be out .. and in that regard, to me, there just seems to be too much stress that is beyond my own tolerance(s). How do you deal with all of that? You get pleasure out of making BIG plays, rather than attempting some form of incrementalism?

Thanks for your reply JJG though I only just saw it, I've been neglecting WO thread a little lately , missed many pages. I guess what I described in my previous post was only the kind of 'fiat gateway' part of my system (if it can be called a system). I rarely cash out to fiat unless there is a reason, eg paying for a car or paying off mortgage, extra funds for a holiday, investing in something outside crypto etc. I'm quite frugal and live within my means mostly without needing to cash in any crypto. Those sort of ideas start coming on my radar when bitcoin is on a crazy bull run spike. But my normal state is to HODL and not sell to fiat. I am much more likely to trade between bitcoin and a few other cryptos that I like, mainly Dash. Yes,,Dash sorry. Its a great asset though regardless of bad rep on this thread. As I said I have no stats to know what my dollar cost average is, due to my convoluted trading style. But I do know that I have cashed out more fiat value then I first put in, and my stack in btc terms has grown over that time too.

edit: Just to add in case it wasn't clear, I wouldn't go all into fiat or even some big number as part of my trading strategy, I got into precious metals and cryptos as a way of getting my wealth out of fiat. I might cash out then but then buy gold if I was wanting out of crypto as an example.

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