Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

I copped some slight heat for calling a local bottom yesterday.  But I think the thesis still stands with a local target of $7200 - $7300.  Then pucker.  

Update - still calling for a local target of $7200, to be followed by a burning sensation.

Don't ask me, I just work here.  Target $7200.

Target still $7200 then revisit $5700.

I find this is really interesting.  I am getting a divergence on my model.  Target was $5700 but we bounced at $6100.  So why did that happen?  Is it traders trading in anticipation of the bounce?  Is there something deeper going on here?  Or is this a quick swing on the way down to $5700?  I don't know.  Historically speaking, September should be a bloody month followed by an October rally.  But it should be too early for an October rally.  So my model still calls for $5700 but the price is currently going in the other direction.  I have gotten stopped out on Eth shorts now so am stopping all trading until I figure out what is going on. 

[Wekkel]

Yup. Something's off  

[HairyMaclairy]

Overview shots.  All of the lines currently intersect around 12 November.   I would expect a small break upwards sometime in the interim to delay intersection into December.  

[holzer]

Claiming that BCH is bitcoin is not the same as claiming BCH is BTC.

Wat?

[d_eddie]

Well, if Jihan and friends have their way, BCH will never have the most accumulated SHA256 work. They are hinting around that they want to decrease the block times to 1 minute and perhaps implement POS.

He's got plenty of hashpower on hand. It's only natural he'd be better off allocating as large a fraction as possible to the more valuable coin. Also, POS can be a very good thing. For those that hold the absolute majority of tokens, at least.

[cAPSLOCK]

Claiming that BCH is bitcoin is not the same as claiming BCH is BTC.

Wat?

That is the childish semantic argument to defend Roger as not having ever said BCash is Bitcoin.

[doc12]

Claiming that BCH is bitcoin is not the same as claiming BCH is BTC.

Wat?

That is the childish semantic argument to defend Roger as not having ever said BCash is Bitcoin.

Man these Bcashers are really full of shit. Every single one.

[bitcoinPsycho]

could not resist



Satoshi?

[cAPSLOCK]

could not resist



Satoshi?

No.

Craig Wright is Satoshi.  You know it.

[xhomerx10]

I can’t be bothered arguing with Jbear about bcash lol.  It’s much too nice a day for that.  

Well, something to agree upon.

https://imgur.com/gallery/LK3cT7z

 That is a beautiful view.  Is it all yours or were you just visiting?

[bones261]

Well, if Jihan and friends have their way, BCH will never have the most accumulated SHA256 work. They are hinting around that they want to decrease the block times to 1 minute and perhaps implement POS.

He's got plenty of hashpower on hand. It's only natural he'd be better off allocating as large a fraction as possible to the more valuable coin. Also, POS can be a very good thing. For those that hold the absolute majority of tokens, at least.

Of course POS would be a good thing for Jihan and his ~1,000,0000 BCH.   However, POS on a limited supply coin is always less secure than a POW coin. All an entity needs to do is accumulate 51% of the coins and be in a permanent attack position. No amount of competition will ever be able to unseat them.

[Elwar]

I can’t be bothered arguing with Jbear about bcash lol.  It’s much too nice a day for that.  

Well, something to agree upon.

https://imgur.com/gallery/LK3cT7z

Umm...you're on the WO thread reading posts by bears in a forest filled with bears...

You're just asking to be attacked by bears. Everywhere.

[Yaplatu]

(They are saying this is a BS misinterpretation on Twitter, but posted for the banter... Not sure what to make of asseater)

https://twitter.com/RNR_0/status/1040704249343164416

Volume : 5 BTC . No ?

[eddie13]

I sold my bitchcoin too soon and had that crap feel as I saw it pumped up after I had let mine go.. But now, it doesn't feel like I sold them too soon anymore..

I was never a bcash lover but I'll admit for a while there I was a bit nervous about it, having dumped all of it I could reasonable get to on my keys.. If it took over I would have been screwed but now I'm not worried about it anymore. They tried their best to harm and replace Bitcoin and now it is clear that they have failed..

I got the first post on this (infamous?) "@RogerVer lets make a deal. At least 60k, my BTU for your BTC." thread and at first it looked like he was going to take the deal, and my call was wrong, but he never did take the deal, and my call was eventuall right!!
Ha!

Does anyone know if Ver ended up losing a bunch of money on his beecoin blitz or did he pump and dump enough to make it have been worth his while?

I still have a cas half with .5 Bcoin on it and a lot of other forks still on old seeds I have cycled out of service, that I need to eventually get to and dump..
Ledger needs an update so I might as well get my BTC off of it first and then start it up with a new seed, so I can compromise the old seed trying to claim forks..

Edit: maybe their is some question as to who backed out but when it was still going down I think I recall Ver backing out first atleast..

[HairyMaclairy]

LTC ATH was 0.05 BTC in November 2013.

It is now 0.008 and has never recovered.  

Most shitcoins will never recover from the 2018 crash.  I don’t think we can call BCH dead yet, but it’s not looking particularly healthy.

[HairyMaclairy]

Yup. Something's off  

We don’t have anything to signal a capitulation or reversal.  Volume is piss poor.   So I think I have to assume it is just an oscillation and the model is still correct.   

[PoolMinor]

I look forward to the next financial crisis  

The whole point of the FED policy is to avoid a crisis.   Instead they are spreading losses over decades, which is seen as a positive compared to the alternative of a crash type adjustment.       So theres two extremes which is fixed pricing via central government which does after all have trillions at its disposal, the alternate is not just a crash but a collapse of that control by the FED over monetary supply.  Its very hard to predict a total revolution


re: the triangle pics, this old concept of the deleveraging process came from the FED itself.   However the people who believed this theory are long gone I guess




https://web.archive.org/web/20121015050632/http://www.dailynews.lk/2007/03/01/fin08.asp

FTFY

[eddie13]

Volume is piss poor.   

Volume is maintaining nicely IMO. It is still higher than any point in history other than during the great pump and some of the worst of the dump..
Maybe this could be considered the new base volume to be expected on the low end, but since the pump their must be more money flying around constantly..

Granted it is USD volume, and with BTC being so much higher that means more USD for the same amount of BTC so it is definitely possible that previous volume was higher if measure in the amount of bitcoins traded rather than the USD value of the trades..

[HairyMaclairy]

Heres the volume in BTC.  I think its hard to say that we aren't still in an overall trend of declining volume since Dec 2017.  

The cryptowinter recovery was on very low volume, but after the biggest spike in volume in Bitcoin history.

[JayJuanGee]

We should hope that BCH has a long life. The big blockers need their own chain that they can squabble about block size and other things. Let them have their hash wars on their own chain(s).

Personally, I don' t have any warm and fuzzy feelings for Bcash, because they were begun as Bitcoin attack vector, and they largely still serve as a bitcoin attack vector.

Sure, it is a place to direct the BIG blocker nutjobs, but those fucktwats are not going to be satisfied with their own coin, and really there are all kinds of other alts out there proclaiming to become bitcoin 2.0.. so in the end, a large number of these bitcoin wanna bes are not really that helpful, even if they may serve as a necessary transition for dumb money and other fluff to figure out (even if it takes 100 years) that they shoudl be putting their time and money into bitcoin or at least most of it, rather than various other projects including the bcash trash.

So, even having their own, chain, they are not going to be happy, and they are still going to continue to attack bitcoin, whether bcash is a strong alt coin or a weak one.. .. I see no reason to praise or promote their existence, even though I do understand the necessity to understand that they are there (and serve as a purpose to complain about them as being snake oil).