Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wekkel]

A nice heart warming message. We may not have seen the low yet, but evidence of bottoming is increasing: https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1089444492363485184?s=19

[HairyMaclairy]

Edit:
Also HM your "overlay" is incorrect.

Lies


In what sense is it incorrect?

It is simply incorrect because history rhymes. Your construction of overlay diminishes the obvious delay in timing from the previous movements to the current movements that are taking longer to develop. You will see soon enough when you shake it like a Polaroid picture!

Fair enough.  

I think that the halvening (supply reduction) remains the primary driver of price over the long term.   I also think that the “longening” (increase in Bitcoin price cycle time) is inconsistent with the halvening being fixed 4 year periods, more or less.

 In other words I do not believe in the longening and think it is just an artifact of historic price battles.  

We shall see soon enough whether I am wrong and the longening is a thing.  I would say that the longening is a thing if the price is still doing poorly, at or below this level in December.

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/SoundMoneyz/status/1089216802100572161

another FUCK you @rogerver, sorry couldn't cover this F*** word, I hope you guys understand.

Two Bitcoin Hardforks (right and left leaning) argue who is the correct hardfork.
Hardforking creates trouble, without the 27 Dec. 2017 hardfork Bitcoin cash would not exist and none of the other 50 or so hardforks all because of a hardfork.
Down with hardforks, all of them.

Huh?   The bcash hardfork happened on August 1, 2017?  Are you referring to some additional event on Decembr 27?  or did you just get the date wrong?   

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[realr0ach]

In other news, Bob has been drafted by the NFL:

[JayJuanGee]

Edit:
Also HM your "overlay" is incorrect.

Lies


In what sense is it incorrect?

It is simply incorrect because history rhymes. Your construction of overlay diminishes the obvious delay in timing from the previous movements to the current movements that are taking longer to develop. You will see soon enough when you shake it like a Polaroid picture!

Fair enough.  

I think that the halvening (supply reduction) remains the primary driver of price over the long term.   I also think that the “longening” (increase in Bitcoin price cycle time) is inconsistent with the halvening being fixed 4 year periods, more or less.

 In other words I do not believe in the longening and think it is just an artifact of historic price battles.  

We shall see soon enough whether I am wrong and the longening is a thing.  I would say that the longening is a thing if the price is still doing poorly, at or below this level in December.

A little bit of a strange speculative indicator that you raise here, namely "longening", and surely a long amount of history of several more cycles would likely be needed to determine with any kind of certainty whether a "longening" is actually happening.  I doubt that you would be able to determine such a phenomena from this exact cycle, even though it is not a bad talking point.

Regarding the halvening, the percentage of its affect in respect to BTC supply is certainly a less and less proportion of the bitcoin, so it will seem to have diminishing importance in the future, even though I would agree with you that today, that halvening plays a considerable role today, and perhaps bordering on a "primary driver" role as you assert.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/redditbtc/status/1089949085967269889?s=21

[HairyMaclairy]

Does anyone know why the order book on stamp looks so different than elsewhere? On stamp there seems to be much more buy support than sell resistance. Eg buying 1250 btc on stamp now will bring the price up over 17% while selling the same amount will bring it down less than 3%.

However stamp volumes and walls are tiny compared to other exchanges (but other exchanges have more fake volume and walls) and according to https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/books/USD the buy and sell walls are much more evenly matched (when I looked just earlier the sell walls were even larger than the buy walls across exchanges).

What is the truth? Does binance have too large an influence on the overall figures?

Stamp is the price leader most of the time and has to be taken seriously.

[ðºÞæ]

https://twitter.com/SoundMoneyz/status/1089216802100572161

another FUCK you @rogerver, sorry couldn't cover this F*** word, I hope you guys understand.

Two Bitcoin Hardforks (right and left leaning) argue who is the correct hardfork.
Hardforking creates trouble, without the 27 Dec. 2017 hardfork Bitcoin cash would not exist and none of the other 50 or so hardforks all because of a hardfork.
Down with hardforks, all of them.

Huh?   The bcash hardfork happened on August 1, 2017?  Are you referring to some additional event on Decembr 27?  or did you just get the date wrong?  

Right leaning Bitcoin hardforked on 27 December (Segwit)
Left leaning Bitcoin hardforked August 1, 2017
Silver Bitcoin hardforked October 2011
Down whit all hardforks

[Last of the V8s]

How the left see the red hats

[kenzawak]

https://twitter.com/DataLightMe/status/1088481586180489216

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1089872332900962305?s=21

Awesome

[kenzawak]

https://twitter.com/DataLightMe/status/1088481586180489216

Pretty interesting page :
https://twitter.com/DataLightMe

[kurious]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/akl4on/oc_how_many_people_are_using_bitcoin_by_country/

The most surprising here are India and Indonesia. I thought compared to how popular is internet in India and how popular are Gold and cash there, Bitcoin is way behind. I guess just news dont come out.

India and Indonesia alone account for what, 20% of the world's population? If this map is accurate, even at 1% that is around the 15 million mark, in just these two nations.  I am not sure whether to be sceptical, or blown away.

To extrapolate: with the rest of the world rolled in, if true this means many tens of millions of people - turned on and tuned in.  When I first was on this forum it was like being in a fringe group of nerdy anarchic oddballs.  Bitcoin getting a tiny mention in a major newspaper was a thing. 

Now there are more Bitcoin users than the population count of most European countries. 

[HairyMaclairy]

Edit:
Also HM your "overlay" is incorrect.

Lies


In what sense is it incorrect?

It is simply incorrect because history rhymes. Your construction of overlay diminishes the obvious delay in timing from the previous movements to the current movements that are taking longer to develop. You will see soon enough when you shake it like a Polaroid picture!

Fair enough.  

I think that the halvening (supply reduction) remains the primary driver of price over the long term.   I also think that the “longening” (increase in Bitcoin price cycle time) is inconsistent with the halvening being fixed 4 year periods, more or less.

 In other words I do not believe in the longening and think it is just an artifact of historic price battles.  

We shall see soon enough whether I am wrong and the longening is a thing.  I would say that the longening is a thing if the price is still doing poorly, at or below this level in December.

A little bit of a strange speculative indicator that you raise here, namely "longening", and surely a long amount of history of several more cycles would likely be needed to determine with any kind of certainty whether a "longening" is actually happening.  I doubt that you would be able to determine such a phenomena from this exact cycle, even though it is not a bad talking point.

Regarding the halvening, the percentage of its affect in respect to BTC supply is certainly a less and less proportion of the bitcoin, so it will seem to have diminishing importance in the future, even though I would agree with you that today, that halvening plays a considerable role today, and perhaps bordering on a "primary driver" role as you assert.

To clarify, I am saying there is insufficient evidence for a longening.  

I think we are in agreement?

[makrospex]

There are some recent hypothesizing that if he does not get thrown in jail in the coming years, he will likely, inevitably, end up coming back to bitcoin.. but I have some difficult times seeing that anytime soon, and he may just go down with the ship and keep Bcash alive for 30 years, finding ways to profit off his ongoing scam and deception in this wild wild west of crypto, and really there are plenty of status quo that would not mind funding his ongoing deceptions in an effort to continue to attempt to undermine bitcoin.

Honestly, i'd rather know that he is behind bars instead of seeing his face at BTC again.
My first and ever BCH transaction took 22 minutes to confirm, btw.

The odds of Roger going behind bars at any time in the near future don't seem too high right now, and seems merely like wishful thinking, even though we have seen Roger engaging in some pretty manipulative, emotional and childish behaviors....

Does his conduct in this BTC/crypto wild wild west cross criminal legal lines that would put him in jail?  And what jurisdiction is going to do it?  To me, it seems too early to speculate on that kind of wishful thinking.

Yeah.
Just a dirty, hidden thought that slipped out in a weak moment and inspired my reply 
Totally wishful.

[HairyMaclairy]

How the left see the red hats

#allbrandssmatter

People choose to associate themselves with brands by displaying those brands' logos.  By wearing that brand, they are seeking to associate themselves that brand's identity and values.

• Chanel brand values are 'elegance, luxury and exceedingly good quality'
• Coca Cola brand value is 'happiness'
• Lamborghini brand value is 'Aggressive - Not for the faint hearted'
• North Face brand value is 'Never stop exploring'

By wearing gear from the brand, you want some of the magic of that brand to rub off on you.  This is a deliberate choice.  A girl buys a Chanel handbag because she wants to be seen as elegant and wealthy.  Whether or not we believe the girl is elegant and wealthy is another matter, but that is how she wants to be perceived.

A MAGA hat wearer buys and wears a MAGA hat because they want to be associated with the MAGA brand and want some of the MAGA brand magic to rub off on them.  It is then up to the reader to decide what are the brand values of the MAGA brand, and how much of that should rub off on the person who chooses to wear MAGA gear.  

But let's be clear, the wearer of the MAGA hat wants to be perceived consistent with the MAGA brand values.  That's why they are wearing the hat.  

[Last of the V8s]

Please don't quote the trolls.

[jbreher]

anybody else get a totally whack 1099-K from Coinbase?

these numbers are absurd

1099-K is not a form that most individuals have ever seen. It is for reporting non-cash money flows - typically used to track credit card receipts for retailers and such. Why Coinbase thinks this is an appropriate filing for individuals is a mystery.

I've not yet looked at mine this year. Last year's was yuuuge. But it did not tabulate any sort of profit, but rather sheer volume of transactions. I filed based on my own tabulation of capital gains, which was a scant fraction of the flows shown on the 1099-K. I have not (as of yet, anyway) been audited for 2017.

So the figures you are seeing on your 1099-K are likely not absurd. Probably correct, just irrelevant.

https://i.imgflip.com/2s85ev.jpg YouCantGet1099dIfYouDontUseCoinbase.jpg

Well, other than the fact that that is not true, I don't understand the relevance. Your tax liability is your tax liability. The issuance of a 1099 does nothing to alter this fact.

[jbreher]

...
And of course if LN works and transaction costs go really down.
...

I doubt that most centralized hubs will process transactions out of
benevolence - they will take a cut from every transaction. Even if the
Lightning Network works in practice (which is doubtful) and even
if somehow it manages to gain traction in the African countries you still
have the problem of funding LN channels in the first place.

It would not be of much use to people in poorer countries when LN
transactions are dirt cheap (which they probably will not be when
the liquid LN hubs will be run by banks and exchanges), but to get started
you would need to pay a 20 $ fee for the funding transaction on the BTC
main layer.

Yeah. It's almost is if they might benefit from a Bitcoin that has tx capacity well above demand for such, with the resultant inconsequential tx fees, enabling them to transact directly on chain. I wonder if such a Bitcoin exists...