Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nutildah]

Thanks.  That is the most specific on the ground BTC report that I have seen so far about the philipines.  I am considering going there later in the year.. depending on a couple of other matters that I have to research too before I finalize.  I'm thinking that I will probably know more in about May-ish.... regarding timeline or possible competing locations.

Cool, let me know if you do, I can give you some suggestions.

Mic went (is going) to some really beachy / tropically locales, which are all quite nice. I'm more of a city person myself.

[Syke]

The arbitrage with Bitcoin to fiat is very risky. First, Bitfinex is nothing like the US exchanges (which are under the supervision of SEC) and is known with their "hacks" and "bank problems". This means your money can be stolen and you can't do anything about it. Second: if you buy at Bitstamp and transfer the Bitcoins to Bitfinex, you have to wait several hours during which time the price may dip.

Yeah, to do that effectively, you need to hold balances in both places so that you can execute instantly. Definitely risky.

[JayJuanGee]

Thanks.  That is the most specific on the ground BTC report that I have seen so far about the philipines.  I am considering going there later in the year.. depending on a couple of other matters that I have to research too before I finalize.  I'm thinking that I will probably know more in about May-ish.... regarding timeline or possible competing locations.

Cool, let me know if you do, I can give you some suggestions.

Mic went (is going) to some really beachy / tropically locales, which are all quite nice. I'm more of a city person myself.

 

Thanks.  Learning tricks and specialties of each locale can sometimes take a lot of practice, so likely it is good to attempt to learn from others, too.  Possibly avoid some mistakes along the way.

[El duderino_]

The six richest people in the world have a larger net worth separately than the entire market cap of Bitcoin.

The fact that a single person holds more value than Bitcoin, the future global payment currency, shows how early we are.

Accumulate Bitcoin. Every Satoshi matters. $BTC

https://twitter.com/cryptosbatman/status/1103657392217223168?s=21

[HairyMaclairy]

In theory the USDT/USDC spread should mirror the Bitfinex premium.  I can’t be bothered checking it.

[El duderino_]

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/goldtelegraph_/status/1103735429059231744?s=21

[realr0ach]

LastoftheV8TrilemmaShills is now filing FALSE REPORTS against me.  ...

I’m not gonna search for things..... but i just know V8 isn’t really someone thats a liar.....

Yeah, I was as surprised as anyone might be to learn that V8 is a whiny bitch in the shadows. And that's all I'm gonna need to say about that.

It's unbelievable how big of a piece of shit, female acting male Last of the V8s is.  I do not own any Bcash and do not care about Bcash, but he filed a report against you for simply owning Bcash, which is hilarious.  Then he files a report against me for stating an opinion that JayJuanGee is probably a more trustworthy shitcoiner than Bob because Bob was posting "hodl", "to the moon!" and "buy more!" spam while he was dumping $5 million worth of shitcoins on you people. Both of them post all the same bulltard spam, but at least JayJuanGee was not selling while spamming it.

[HairyMaclairy]

Every Satoshi matters.

Well I have definitely screwed up that one

[HairyMaclairy]

20 years of price changes in the United States...

Notice how government subsidized industries are the most expensive? 😮

College tuition in Belgium

Tuition fees at public universities and colleges in the French Community of Belgium are set by the regional government. For the academic year 2015/2016, tuition fees ranged from 374 to 836.96 EUR per year for EU students depending on their income and whether they are eligible for a grant/scholarship.

There are other reasons.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies

[realr0ach]

The USA is corrupt.  Don’t blame it on government subsidies

You need an IQ of zero to not be able to figure out that education in the US is stupidly expensive because the US govt is underwriting the loans.  It's supply and demand.  There's a finite amount of teachers and classrooms, so if you create loans that anyone can take without putting up any collateral, EVERYONE will take them and cause the price to skyrocket to artificially high prices and then probably implode the financial and education system with it.  

If it was real capitalism, you would have to apply to a private lender without the govt involved and nobody would get student loans without putting up collateral, and yes, less people would get loans, but the ones who did get them would only take a few years to pay them back instead of 20+ years.  People claim the system HAS to exist this way to give a chance of upward ability to black noggers from the ghetto, but that's all a scam.  The system exists this way solely to drive up prices and force people into bigger loans that end in life long debt slavery.

[El duderino_]

Every Satoshi matters.

Well I have definitely screwed up that one

There cheap FIX them back the ones you screwed up on

Btw we have the HM timeline so you know how long they Will be in the cheap-zone

[Globb0]

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

I could perfectly live with all 3 of those.... but never underestimate the suddenly big movements of BTC, i love those..... the ones when nobody expect them and everybody needs to adjust there TA’s
But for normal moves those 3 are good and in line with HM’s 6K december price range

I am not trying to describe a preferred course, because I would prefer that the price just goes shooting up.

Instead, I am just thinking about what kind of scenarios (of course I may change my mind) would cause me to start to assert that we are no longer in a bear market.. and we have converted from bear to bull market.  Because ever since we dropped below $6k without bouncing up in a reasonably quick time, I converted my labelling of the market from bull to bear.   These are merely variations of conditions that I could think of that would cause me to convert back. 

I suppose there could be another kind of 4th circumstances that if the price breaks below $3,320, then what would it take for me to consider the conversion from bear to bull?, but since we have not yet broken below $3,320 to satisfy another possible scenario, I consider that kind of 4th condition to be too far removed from current speculation and NOT worthy of consideration until such 4th condition were to actually happen, if it does.

So largely, going up and staying up would  be your main indicators. Right.

[JayJuanGee]

LastoftheV8TrilemmaShills is now filing FALSE REPORTS against me.  ...

I’m not gonna search for things..... but i just know V8 isn’t really someone thats a liar.....

Yeah, I was as surprised as anyone might be to learn that V8 is a whiny bitch in the shadows. And that's all I'm gonna need to say about that.

It's unbelievable how big of a piece of shit, female acting male Last of the V8s is.  I do not own any Bcash and do not care about Bcash, but he filed a report against you for simply owning Bcash, which is hilarious.  Then he files a report against me for stating an opinion that JayJuanGee is probably a more trustworthy shitcoiner than Bob because Bob was posting "hodl", "to the moon!" and "buy more!" spam while he was dumping $5 million worth of shitcoins on you people. Both of them post all the same bulltard spam, but at least JayJuanGee was not selling while spamming it.

I do sell.  I have a system for selling BTC... especially if the price goes up.   I sell about 1% of the my stash for every 10% the value of BTC goes up.  I tweak a bit here and there in terms of some of the selling specifics, but I do sell as the price goes up and buy back as the price goes down. 

So you are mistaken regarding your point about my supposedly NOT selling BTC... and I sold a lot all the way up to $19,666.  I started buying back in the $19k territory as the price was going down..  Members here make a decent variety of choices about buying and selling and even though Bob might have been all over the map, I doubt that he was trying to trick anyone regarding what he was doing.. and the market is way too BIG for any one particular person to have any meaningful effect either way, even if Bob happened to sell a lot relatively speaking compared with others in this thread.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

I could perfectly live with all 3 of those.... but never underestimate the suddenly big movements of BTC, i love those..... the ones when nobody expect them and everybody needs to adjust there TA’s
But for normal moves those 3 are good and in line with HM’s 6K december price range

I am not trying to describe a preferred course, because I would prefer that the price just goes shooting up.

Instead, I am just thinking about what kind of scenarios (of course I may change my mind) would cause me to start to assert that we are no longer in a bear market.. and we have converted from bear to bull market.  Because ever since we dropped below $6k without bouncing up in a reasonably quick time, I converted my labelling of the market from bull to bear.   These are merely variations of conditions that I could think of that would cause me to convert back. 

I suppose there could be another kind of 4th circumstances that if the price breaks below $3,320, then what would it take for me to consider the conversion from bear to bull?, but since we have not yet broken below $3,320 to satisfy another possible scenario, I consider that kind of 4th condition to be too far removed from current speculation and NOT worthy of consideration until such 4th condition were to actually happen, if it does.

So largely, going up and staying up would  be your main indicators. Right.

I thought that the three scenarios describe different variations, and the third scenario is that it does not go down any further for 1 year... which is not exactly going up, but it would still cause me to begin to assert that we have transformed into a bull market rather than being in our current bear market.

[Lambie Slayer]

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.

It is not a prediction.  It is a description of various possible scenarios.  

Accordingly, those are conditions in which I am planning to convert my assessment of the current BTC market dynamics from current status of bear to bull.

Here is my opinion on this matter. All three scenarios would give one a very high probability of being correct in declaring a Bull Market. The nuance here that is important is that the Bull Market would not start on the day one of these conditions was met, it would still have begun on December 15, 2018. Bear Markets have a way of beating a lot of bulls down and making them set a very high bar for what it would take for them to consider the market to have flipped back to bull.

I was very dedicated to accumulating stocks and index fund investments for years before Bitcoin came along and saved me. Bear and bull markets traditionally are measured by 20 percent moves, but this would be ridiculous in Bitcoin because by that metric we would have had countless bear and bull markets in the last ten years. This forces us to arbitrarily pick what constitutes a Bull or Bear market. We are the pioneers laying down what future generations of coiners will consider traditional.

I do think it is important to distinguish the difference between a circumstance giving one confidence that we are in a Bull Market, vs that circumstance marking the beginning of said Bull Market. You might say that for a sports team that has languished through terrible seasons to have turned itself around and have a good season that the team would need to meet a goal like making the playoffs, or having a winning record 3 quarters into the season, etc.

However if the team gets to the playoffs and you say, well there you go, that team that used to be trash is having a good season, you would be correct. It would also be correct to point out that the good season started in the first play of the first regular season game and the former trash team was having a good season all along, many just didnt believe in them till they made the playoffs.

A few hardcore fans would have been going to pre-season games and cheering on their beloved team from the beginning. Bitcoin has had a shit season, no doubt. I believe that Bitcoin will make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl, win the World Series, win the Stanley Cup, win the Masters, win the World Cup, unify the boxing heavyweight titles, and win the UFC heavyweight championship. I realize many wont believe until they see more results, but I say.................

83 days into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generatorvia Imgflip Meme Generatorvia Imgflip Meme Generator

Insane beauty of the world ...... just a wrong man leading this beautyfull lands i guess ......

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I don’t know exactly what it is, but surely there is place for r0ach as well......

[HairyMaclairy]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I don’t know exactly what it is, but surely there is place for r0ach as well......

You pay 1 silver bar for 15 minutes and a man with a green beard spanks you

[Lambie Slayer]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I don’t know exactly what it is, but surely there is place for r0ach as well......

Lmao, we need a translation of that sign.

Once Roach sees this video he will wish he had gone to a certain high school in Alabama where he could have really fit in.

https://twitter.com/RacistOTW/status/1102598179974008834

[Majormax]

I am not trying to describe a preferred course, because I would prefer that the price just goes shooting up.

Instead, I am just thinking about what kind of scenarios (of course I may change my mind) would cause me to start to assert that we are no longer in a bear market.. and we have converted from bear to bull market.  Because ever since we dropped below $6k without bouncing up in a reasonably quick time, I converted my labelling of the market from bull to bear.   These are merely variations of conditions that I could think of that would cause me to convert back.  

I suppose there could be another kind of 4th circumstances that if the price breaks below $3,320, then what would it take for me to consider the conversion from bear to bull?, but since we have not yet broken below $3,320 to satisfy another possible scenario, I consider that kind of 4th condition to be too far removed from current speculation and NOT worthy of consideration until such 4th condition were to actually happen, if it does.

I looked back at all my posts in Feb 2018, when I labelled this a Bear Market, due for an 85% drop.  I have never really changed my mind.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30067641#msg30067641

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg29643594#msg29643594

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30196222#msg30196222

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30244256#msg30244256



$2k low can still happen.  (I would say around 30% probability now). The longer it stays above £3200 the less likely, but only if there is a creeping rise. Bumping along the bottom is not a good sign. The BTC waves are getting longer as the adoption/market matures, and therefore it might not be possible to call the low being in until at least 2020, worst case 2021.  Regarding your test levels, my own instinct is that a move above $4k which doesn't get reversed for at least 6 months, would be the earliest possible prediction of a bull trend. Even that might be premature.

In the end it's all down to probabilities. Anyone who makes firm dogmatic predictions is due for a lot of disappointments in their trading.  My own instinct, taking all things into consideration, is that there is a 50% chance we touch $5k sometime this year (but may still end sub4k in December) 30% chance there is a new sub3k low, and the bear ends in late 2021. 10% it gets $5k-6k by end year, 5% deep freeze (sub 2k), and 5% moon (that would be ~8k by year end).

Keep up the hopium. I'm a bull too, but a realistic one !

further edit :  I suppose I should give a 10% for 'other', just to be more exacting, so label 'touch 5k this year' as 40%.