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Question: Closing BTC Price June 28:
$0 - 5 (3.4%)
<$7,000 - 4 (2.8%)
$7,000-$7,499 - 0 (0%)
$7,500-$7,999 - 0 (0%)
$8,000-$8,499 - 1 (0.7%)
$8,500-$8,999 - 3 (2.1%)
$9,000-$9,499 - 4 (2.8%)
$9,500-$9,999 - 26 (17.9%)
$10,000-$10,499 - 23 (15.9%)
$10,500-10,999 - 12 (8.3%)
$11,000-$11,499 - 14 (9.7%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 11 (7.6%)
>$12,000 - 31 (21.4%)
>$20,000 - 11 (7.6%)
Total Voters: 145

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21241420 times)
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February 14, 2019, 12:47:13 AM
Last edit: February 14, 2019, 01:05:43 AM by realr0ach

The real state of the economy and why shit is hitting the fan:

Since most of you guy's knowledge of economics is an F- at best, if it wasn't obvious, the kikes are currently trying to inflate their way out of the debt bubble's inevitable conclusion.  It might not be possible.  When I look around right now, I see an avalanche of $500,000 houses and apartments everywhere hitting the market all at once.  These are not mansions, just normal, average looking houses.  Wage prices are too low, asset prices are too high.

In order for the entire system to not implode in cascading deflationary collapse, you would need to simultaneously create massive wage inflation while also not allowing the prices of property to go up with the wages.  This can actually be done, but it can only be done in one way:  printing a lot + raising interest rates to the moon.  High interest rates are a net negative to real estate appreciation and you bring the market back to equilibrium in this manner.

Nothing in the system is actually capable of handling high interest rates, though.  You would need to turn the dollar into literal toilet paper in order to service the normalized, high, or Volcker-style interest rates.  Simply debasing the currency and raising interest rates to fix the asset price/wage equilibrium doesn't actually work either if none of the torrent of new money is going into the hands of average people.  This is one reason they're trying to push this "universal basic income" communist program now.

People will either accept this banker "UBI" bait and switch tactic - which is just a ploy to try and implement full-blown communism where everyone's life on earth will be miserable - or everything on the bank's balance sheets will implode and the TBTF banks die.  To remonetize the system when this happens, this is where someone like Trump announces the old system is toast and the price of gold is now something like $20k an ounce and silver $500-$1000 an ounce.
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JayJuanGee
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February 14, 2019, 12:49:50 AM

The biggest question I ponder with regards to bitcoin is the following:

Right now the only way to benefit from bitcoin appreciation is to sell it (or exchange for goods).
There are no cash flows that you can get from simply holding btc.

Have you capitulated, Biodom?  Finding a shared realization space with bitserve?

Alt coin pumpers and bitcoin bashers like to suggest that their project is better because it has a "cash flow"

When in fact you don't need a cashflow if you are holding the most sound of monies that has ever existed and also you have scarcity that is pretty damned solid - even if it takes more than 120 years from now for all of it to come available.

I know that it is from design, but would have preferred to have some income from btc holding.

Again.  Why?  Don't get sucked into some shitcoin that supposedly provides cashflow and then to find out that it has almost NO actual decent monetary restriction policy (limitation of its supply).

Otherwise, the only way is to sell, which most people detest.

Why you gonna do that unless you invested every single thing into bitcoin.  Should be easy enough to sell fiat first, no? It's called gresham's law.. you spend the least valuable first, and sure if all that you have left is bitcoin, then you are going to have to sell a bit of bitcoin... if you are not otherwise able to eat or shelter yourself, for example.

Getting cash loans in lieu of btc is super risky because of btc volatility.

Agreed.. especially if we are in a bear market, currently, while being unsure about whether the BTC price is going to reverse from here.  Likely there is a need to plan ahead about these kinds of matters in order to not run out of money that you can spend to cover your expenses, including having an emergency fund.

Who wants to get a loan at 30% value, then get liquidated on a 83% "correction".

Not me.  I would really not want to put myself in such a place in order to have to be forced to gamble like that... unless it is merely a really small portion of my total BTC value.. perhaps much lower than 1%.  On the other hand if my BTC portfolio is in profits, it might be better to shave off a little bit.  If my BTC portfolio is negative, then it is better to be looking for resources in other areas rather than locking in losses by selling my BTC or loaning it out with a risk.

I wonder if some legit services will develop which can give you an "interest" (even a small one) on your btc.

There are  all kinds of services that are likely to develop in regards to BTC such as ones that you are describing.  There are likely some that already exist.
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February 14, 2019, 12:52:11 AM

If everything was about money, people wouldn't be pushing for organic food.
This statement is what gets me..there is a obvious disconnect somewhere here if you think that normal people(ie not the 1%'ers) are more worried about their food having a government stamp of approval over having enough money to pay rent next month, your nukkin futz.
Never said that "normal people" push more for organic food than they cared about money. Simply stated that money isn't the only, or even primary factor in most people's lives. If it was nobody would be buying anything besides food. People would even live on the street if they didn't need an address for jobs and whatnot. Fact is, for rich people it's rarely about money, and for poor people it's about surviving - also not about money. Nobody truly gives a shit about money.

If you think things are going "smooth" I would invite you to walk around Caracas or perhaps a back road in Syria...even the streets Paris for that matter to obtain some perspective. While I can not ascertain whether or not "idiots" are breeding more or less I can tell you with a fair amount of confidence that the world population growth has been in decline since around 1962.

(Individual) Humans are breeding beyond their economic capacities, which makes them idiots. Hence, idiots are breeding more than they should.


And I consider things to go smooth in the sense that humanity, as a whole, gets exactly what it deserves. One example would be the tribal twats in the States flinging shit at each other from left to right and back.

If that is the extent of public human discourse in the 21st century, then whatever humanity has achieved as a whole is "things going smooth". Possibly too smooth for our own good. I'm not sure if we might not need some very serious event (WW tier) for people to stop being full blown retards over the dumbest fairy tales of problems.


Quote
Be all these things as they may..I am hearing the same old rhetoric and the pass the buck it aint my problem mentality and frankly it sickens me. Be part of the solution or you are part of the problem.
Then maybe you should start listening better. I've never advocated for a "not my problem" rhetoric. If I was to advocate for anything of the like it would be for a "don't fucking tell me what to do/think and maybe I'll consider helping you out as I see fit within my capacity" rhetoric.

Quote
Be all these things as they may..I am hearing the same old rhetoric and the pass the buck it aint my problem mentality and frankly it sickens me. Be part of the solution or you are part of the problem.
In so far as there are any real problems they're with degenerates of the like that bring up gender pronouns in politics while aging, disease and hunger are still a thing.
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February 14, 2019, 12:56:14 AM

[edited out]

Funny I was thinking this earlier in terms of fungibility.

The interest you get from the bank is so they can use your money while you aren't right?

If a service was made to centrally hold bitcoin securely so you don't have to worry, it wouldn't risk the fund at all just cold storage as a promise.

But then, what? no interest?? in fact the opposite, how much will you pay per year for bitcoin fort knox. With guaranteed 1 for 1 you own it coins?

Some percent a year?



Yes, good one, but imagine a situation where you are a middle class guy/gal with a bitcoin stash from 2012 (not me, I bought much later  Grin).
You suddenly got 5, 10, 20 mil $$ in 2021-2025 from your 20 btc that you bought for a couple of hundred $$.
You still got no cash...
The size of your stash would probably cause you to sell a large %%, then try to explain where the immense hoard of $$ come from.
Retain good records, lol.

I don't see how that is a problem.  You can easily sell a little bit.  You don't have to sell the whole stash.  You sell enough to cover your expenses for the next few years... or you sell a little bit at various stages on the way up...  Where is the problem, exactly?
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February 14, 2019, 01:12:33 AM

[edited out]

Funny I was thinking this earlier in terms of fungibility.

The interest you get from the bank is so they can use your money while you aren't right?

If a service was made to centrally hold bitcoin securely so you don't have to worry, it wouldn't risk the fund at all just cold storage as a promise.

But then, what? no interest?? in fact the opposite, how much will you pay per year for bitcoin fort knox. With guaranteed 1 for 1 you own it coins?

Some percent a year?



Yes, good one, but imagine a situation where you are a middle class guy/gal with a bitcoin stash from 2012 (not me, I bought much later  Grin).
You suddenly got 5, 10, 20 mil $$ in 2021-2025 from your 20 btc that you bought for a couple of hundred $$.
You still got no cash...
The size of your stash would probably cause you to sell a large %%, then try to explain where the immense hoard of $$ come from.
Retain good records, lol.

I don't see how that is a problem.  You can easily sell a little bit.  You don't have to sell the whole stash.  You sell enough to cover your expenses for the next few years... or you sell a little bit at various stages on the way up...  Where is the problem, exactly?
I think the fallacy is that you're supposed to sell everything at the top or you lose out.
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February 14, 2019, 01:16:21 AM

JayJuanGee, why are you even talking about bitcoin like it's somehow going to be the new world reserve currency?  Do you really think Trump is going to get on TV and say, "Hey guys, the banking system just imploded and instead of reverting back to gold and silver as normal, I think we'll just go with this fly by night scam called bitcoin instead".  Do you really think that's going to happen? 

How and where does bitcoin fit ANYWHERE within the current financial system reset I outlined here?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg49730618#msg49730618
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February 14, 2019, 01:27:12 AM

[edited out]

Funny I was thinking this earlier in terms of fungibility.

The interest you get from the bank is so they can use your money while you aren't right?

If a service was made to centrally hold bitcoin securely so you don't have to worry, it wouldn't risk the fund at all just cold storage as a promise.

But then, what? no interest?? in fact the opposite, how much will you pay per year for bitcoin fort knox. With guaranteed 1 for 1 you own it coins?

Some percent a year?

Yes, good one, but imagine a situation where you are a middle class guy/gal with a bitcoin stash from 2012 (not me, I bought much later  Grin).
You suddenly got 5, 10, 20 mil $$ in 2021-2025 from your 20 btc that you bought for a couple of hundred $$.
You still got no cash...
The size of your stash would probably cause you to sell a large %%, then try to explain where the immense hoard of $$ come from.
Retain good records, lol.

I don't see how that is a problem.  You can easily sell a little bit.  You don't have to sell the whole stash.  You sell enough to cover your expenses for the next few years... or you sell a little bit at various stages on the way up...  Where is the problem, exactly?
I think the fallacy is that you're supposed to sell everything at the top or you lose out.


Fair enough.

Seems like a gamblers mentality to me to be thinking that a BTC HODLer has to sell large increments of the BTC stash in order to profit from a BTC price run up, and sure I have no damned idea where this particular BTC price correction is going to stop (how low will we go), but when I sold incrementally all the way up to $20k, I had so much damned fiat that I did not know what to do with it.  And, I was only selling small amounts.  About 1% of my stash for every 10% the price went up (approximately).

   However, now after the BTC price came back down, a lot of that fiat that I had generated on the way up had gone towards repurchases of bitcoin.. ... problem solved about knowing what to do with all the extra money.... but even so, I did not have to buy back BTC with those funds, and I would have been fine with that, too. 

The main reasons that I bought back BTC back all the way down is that I already have a decent fiat cashflow, so the repurchase of BTC with sales proceeds from all that fiat that had been generated  had seemed as a decently logical application. 

Of course, in hindsight, anyone could argue that I should have waited to buy BTC back at $3,500 rather than buying at $15k and $12k and $9k and $7k and $5k..... and the various increments in between... but I kind of see the whole buying back of BTC on the way down situation as a BIG FUCKING SO WHAT?  It is part of a system that I already created for myself.. and there was no clear picture that the BTC price was going to continue to go down or to come down to the current price with decent odds of going lower, and that money that had been generated was partly intended for buying back of BTC.

So, if the BTC price goes up to $20k or $100k or whatever, I don't see what kind of problem that there is that BTC is not generating a separate cash flow, because anyone who is holding BTC can shave off any amount of BTC all the way up to those various price points at any amount s/he has and at any price point that s/he wants.  Not a bad problem to have been HODLing BTC if the price happens to go up, and the potential sales price is larger than the already known purchase price.
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February 14, 2019, 01:37:29 AM

JayJuanGee, why are you even talking about bitcoin like it's somehow going to be the new world reserve currency? 


You seem to be reading too much into my statement if you conclude that I am presuming BTC to become the new world reserve currency.

By the way, I am talking about bitcoin in this thread because bitcoin happens to be the topic of this thread.  Didn't you get the memo?


Do you really think Trump is going to get on TV and say, "Hey guys, the banking system just imploded and instead of reverting back to gold and silver as normal, I think we'll just go with this fly by night scam called bitcoin instead".  Do you really think that's going to happen? 

Do you really think that bitcoin, or even I when it comes to me thoughts about bitcoin, give(s) a ratt's ass about Trump? and what he says or does not say?


How and where does bitcoin fit ANYWHERE within the current financial system reset I outlined here?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg49730618#msg49730618


Who gives a ratt's ass about what you say?  More than half the time, you are framing any kind of bitcoin related topics into irrelevant nonsense distractions, which seems to be the case with your attempt to describe gold/silver as a superior store of value than bitcoin (under your hypothetical pie in the sky nonsensical assumptions). 

None of us needs to read your ongoing bullshit or to buy into your various frameworks about hypotheticals that are likely irrelevant, because bitcoin nor I give a shit about what you have to say.  Good luck with your gold and silver investments, and kindly take that discussion to some other thread or forum.  This thread is about bitcoin and discussion about how bitcoin's price dynamics are likely affected by a variety of factors including market movements, technicals, fundamentals, news and a variety of other topics, and most of us are completely exhausted by your attempts to make PMs relevant to such discussion when they are likely less than 1% relevant.
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February 14, 2019, 01:44:19 AM

https://twitter.com/marwanelnakeeb/status/1095551567288246272
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Humans are pattern recognition machines.

You're always remembering your past behavior & the outcomes of your past decisions. The environment & experiences you deliberately engage add up on the balance sheet.
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February 14, 2019, 01:49:08 AM

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.
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February 14, 2019, 02:03:37 AM

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Like I said.. neither I nor bitcoin gives a shit about your macro theory value flow projections.  Why don't you go take them to another thread?  You trying to save us from bitcoin, and no one here cares.

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

Ditto from above. so fucking what.  Good luck with your projections about how all of these matters are all going to play out in the coming years.  I see no need to hedge with gold or silver, but you do seem to see a need, so good like fining $20k per once on your gold in the coming years.... but much more likely that bitcoin is going to well surpass those price levels in the coming years.
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February 14, 2019, 02:53:35 AM

You can sell like, $50k USD worth every week, or in some not-too-distant-future, that would be about 4.3 BTC per month. If you wanted to, you could do multiple withdrawals from several different bitcoin ATMs every day. It could take you several months or years to completely deplete your stash if you had a sizable amount to begin with.

Then you can keep the rest and wait it out. In the mean time, you go play with your money and put it in all sorts of traditional fiat investments just so you have something to do. (or put it into all the crypto ETFs that are about to come out.)
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February 14, 2019, 03:09:50 AM

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

You sir, are a monster. I just can't tell if you are trying or not.
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February 14, 2019, 03:11:58 AM
Merited by bones261 (2), BobLawblaw (1)

It feels like we are running about 2 - 3 months ahead of schedule.  Maybe we will start rallying in July instead of waiting until October.





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February 14, 2019, 03:27:43 AM


HAH, I knew better than to click on that!

4 days behind now, fuk,
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February 14, 2019, 03:28:24 AM

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

You sir, are a monster. I just can't tell if you are trying or not.

It's always these two star posters nobody has ever heard of coming out of the woodwork saying "don't listen to the r0ach post, it's a lie!11".  Then they can't even explain what is supposedly incorrect about that factual explanation of the current economic system.
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February 14, 2019, 03:35:03 AM

How old are you r0ach?
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February 14, 2019, 03:44:37 AM

How old are you r0ach?

We'll go with Anonymint's claim of over 70 for now.  Oh, Mike Novogratz is shilling out of his mind for bitcoin again.  It must be time for another leg down.
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February 14, 2019, 03:47:07 AM

How old are you r0ach?

We'll go with Anonymint's claim of over 70 for now.

Assuming that is true... My second question is... Have you always been so obsessed about your "views" or is it something more recent as in "you finally saw the light"?
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February 14, 2019, 03:48:56 AM

I lived in China for about six months.  In Shanghai, in the French concession.  I was working for a company in the Jing'an district.  This gave me the opportunity to experience first hand what it is like to live in a country with little to no environmental regulations.  It has been awhile since I have been there so things may have changed a bit since but I have my doubts.

  • I went out to the bars on Bund one night and came home piss drunk.  Hopped in the shower and was thirsty and drunk so took a big mouthful of water.  I nearly vomited and was instantly sober.  Shanghai tap water is disgusting - no one drinks it except the very poor.  It tastes like liquid metal with god knows what mixed in
  • I was driving home in a taxi one winter evening and looked out the window at the beautiful snow fall.  Then I realised it was still well above freezing.  The falling "snow" was just fly ash from the local coal fired power station
  • A friend of mine landed at the airport.  I went to collect her.  On the taxi ride into the city she commented on the moon which was high in the sky.  I told her 'no' that's the sun and its just smog that make it look dim.  We then had an argument about whether it was the sun or the moon.  I was right and she was wrong.

Here is a picture of what Shanghai looks like on a typical day



Here is a photo of Beijing, which tends to be worse than Shanghai



A pic from Shijiazhuang which is further inland





You guys might think that environmental regulations are killing the USA and UK, but I suggest the opposite.  A lack of environmental regulations are killing China and places in Asia.  All the rich Chinese establish anchor homes in the West, in part just so they can get away from the pollution.  

Think twice before you advocate for getting rid of environmental protections.  You might think that the EPA is communist, but it is truly awful living somewhere without proper environmental controls.  I was offered a pay rise if I would stay for another six months after my contract was up, but I got the fuck out of China and have never been back.  Once I got off the plane in the West and walked into the airport parking lot, all I could smell was this wall of fresh air and flowers.  That memory is absolutely seared into my brain after six months of living in smog.  




Some more information just so you don't think I am making it up:

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Can I drink the tap water in China?

No, the tap water in China is not safe to drink. Unlike most western countries where there is easy access to safe tap water, in most places in China the tap water, although it looks clear, is not safe for drinking unless it has been boiled. Even in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, water from the tap is not well filtered, sterilized, or purified, and may carry hazardous contaminants like sediments, rusts, bacteria, virus, chlorines, or other heavy metals. Sicknesses like diarrhea caused by drinking unclean water may spoil your trip.
Source: https://www.travelchinaguide.com/essential/water.htm

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China's air pollution crisis shows no sign of ending as nation fails to lower coal use  10 January 2017

For the last month, severe air pollution has choked Beijing and coal is estimated to cause about 40 per cent of the smog in the nation's capital. Other cities in the north, such as Shijiazhuang, have recorded air quality of 1000 PM2.5. PM2.5 are fine particles less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter that can lodge in the lungs and get into the bloodstream. The World Health Organisation says anything over 25 PM2.5 as a health hazard
 Source:  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-08/chinese-air-pollution-crisis-caused-by-ongoing-coal-use/8168702


Look at you, using all facts and shit, lets not have that crap get in the way of a good party line.
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