Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Lambie Slayer]

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1161686134314848256

this thread is abt the on-going sells off made by PLUS Token, the biggest Chinese PONZI which scammed ~70K $BTC + ~ 800K $ETH



Ponzi Boyz gonna ponzi, hodlers not affected. Leverage Boyz, be careful out there, could get nasty.

i PeRsoNalLy tHiNk PluS tOkeN iS tHe fuTurE bEcauSe ThE 3hird bOy loOks like VitaLik... bTc is oLD techNoloGy, nOt the FutUre.

I would smash Yuan Yuan

[lightfoot]

I talked to my brother who is an Edward Jones Financial advisor. Told him 5 months ago I wanted to 'take some off the top' on my traditional investments to fix up my house.

...

Then the last hedge is the BTC and Crypto Hodl Hoard, in case everything really goes to hell. Also, of course, have NO DEBT.

So from a 'coping mechanism' point of view on economy/politics/etc out of my control, it seems to be all covered.

Any other hedging from economic calamity will require a bunker being dug and me learning how to can food. (a step too far IMHO)

So bring it on World.

Bitcoin HODL has made me 'brave as f*ck'

Ok. I tend to run along the lines that one should always have assets that can be drawn down for expenses in any situation. When times are great, sell some stocks to pay for things. When times are bad, sell some gold. And when times are really bad... well the technical experience on safe cracking can probably be put to use rescuing things from locked safes (happens).

What annoyed me about 2008 was that ALL asset classes were collapsing. Even as I mentioned Gold, which was dropping through the 700's. Fortunately I had some cash around so I just drew on that till shit got less crazy. Debt most of all, I remember people saying you should just have a big HELOC as your "cash reserve". Those got locked out really quickly, people who depended on that got fucked.

Bitcoin seems to move in tandem with the market, which is odd as people are looking for places to hold their cash because cash is going to be worth shit with heavy inflation around the corner (go ahead, print money). Bitcoin is pretty immune to that problem. We shall see.

It's that time in the cycle to say "place your bets kids". Annoying we have to go through this shit, but that's what happens when your money is manipulated by idiots....

[lightfoot]

The picture was more complex:
1. First, gold rallied 30% from October 2007 to Bear demise (3/2008) while SP500 declined 13%.
2. Then, between Bear and Lehman (or its immediate aftermath), gold declined 35% (from peak) and SP500 declined another 28% (for a total of 41% at the indicated time).
3. Therefore, counting from October 2007, gold was down only 5%, but SP500 was down 41%.
4. From that point, until July 2011, Gold rallied 140% while SP500 only 36%.

Perhaps, you only noticed the period between Bear and Lehman.

A very similar situation is occuring now: gold is rallying, SP500 stalling and declining.

Prediction: If we are going into a serious decline, gold might rally for, maybe, another 10% and then will get smashed with everything else.

TL;DR My take is that IF stock market would decline sharply, then btc would get dragged down as well, at least initially.

That was it.  When Bear imploded things really went weird for a bit. And yes having some gold and silver was nice, it was tangible and gave me some confidence. Which is why I didn't panic sell the stocks and instead bought a fair bit at a discount with the cash. Which did well.

And 2008 was a big part of the reason why I liked bitcoin so much in the beginning....

Answer might be sell gold now (and take the cap gain hits) and have cash at the ready for the big fire sales. Question is will bitcoin be on sale, or will it be the thing everyone is begging to have?

[lightfoot]

It is not as if they haven't been dumping helicopter money for years, it's just that it all goes to their fat cat buddies.  Where did the '08 trillion go?

That money filled the big M3 gloryhole that appeared in 2008 as all the CDO "money" evaporated like the fake dust it was. Despite being fake it was still money and the loss was shaping up to be a massive deflationary spiral. Which might not have been "bad"...

This last cut just went into bank accounts. Wasted.

[SuperTA]

So what holds value as a contra-asset in recessions these days? First person to say Gold gets spit on; I remember watching the stock market implode in 2008 and watching the value of my gold holdings collapse just as fast.

Some cash is nice, but even that's turning into crap, and slaves just don't cut it anymore....

When 2008 recession started, people panic sold everything, including stocks, gold, you name it. Sold everything into dollar. But soon after that gold made a nice rise. So when the real panic starts it could happen again. First gold dump and later a big pump.

[Lambie Slayer]

I dont think this dipping is over till we at least get a volume day on par or exceeding June 27.

The imo likely breach of 9k could do the trick. Our short term fate does seem to be highly correlated with the Stockboyz at the moment, but that wont last too long imo. Bitcoin gonna Bitcoin at the end of the day and we surely will be seeing new all time highs in 2020.

Im still waiting for a good spot in the next few weeks for my last shot at cheap coins to put me over 95% net worth in BTC.

At this time I consider 8ks or less to be cheap. Looking for a huge volume day to make my last purchase.


By the way, anyone hear from our buddy V8s?

[HairyMaclairy]

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

The universe has been expanding for some time now.  Based on the historic trend line, it is likely to keep expanding.  It might even accelerate.

You may be waiting a wee while longer for universal Armageddon.  

What the hell does the universe have to do with a balloon? Nothing.

What the hell does expansionary monetary policy have to do with a balloon?  Nothing.  











Just poppin a few metaphors

[SuperTA]

Everyone waiting 8k levels again. Previous btc dump, almost everyone waited for 8500 or 7200 levels to buy but it bounced before, at 9k. So the majority didn't fill their bags. At 3500 usd everyone waited 3k or lower, but it bounced before that at 3100/3200. Some are still waiting for 3k and 1.400 usd.

[jonoiv]

...

The point is, JJG, none of those have the potential to make a x10 jump in 2-3 years.

Fair enough point, but I still would be hesitant to put all my eggs in one basket, no matter what my age.  Of course, if you are real young and barely just living on your own (moving out of the parent house or even living with parents and in the early stages of building your wealth), then in those cases, you usually do start with just investing in one thing while you are building your portfolio, and then you might start to expand out with the passage of time.  If you only have one investment because you are just starting to invest, then probably in those kinds of circumstances, you might start out with bitcoin... perhaps?  Those are somewhat individually tailored decisions concerning how diversified any person needs to be in terms of cash flow and projected expenses, too.

Gold probably do but I don't think you'll be able to enjoy those profits when it does. Gold is a bit complicated.

When Gold becomes "the shit", you'll be trading your stash for clean water, bullets etc you got the picture.

You are definitely not dumping them for lambos. You'll be afraid to show your face in public in a time like that.

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, and yeah, I agree that we should not be making the bulk of our investment decisions and/or allocations based on such unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there, such as roach and like-thinking acolytes of similar dumbass mindsets)

Noobs do yourself a favour.  every post you see by this cunt ignore.  He is has a very low IQ, he is always wrong on the price and he doesn't understand the difference between bitcoin and paypal (no joke).  He once thought an elliot wave was something Neil deGrasse Tyson spotted as proof of a black hole.   He thinks TA was a member of the A-Team, EMA is a flightless bird from Australia and thought bitcoin could never go below 10k again.

He won't take a challenge!  offering 10 BTC bet (he won't take it)...   

[Hueristic]

So what holds value as a contra-asset in recessions these days? First person to say Gold gets spit on; I remember watching the stock market implode in 2008 and watching the value of my gold holdings collapse just as fast.

Some cash is nice, but even that's turning into crap, and slaves just don't cut it anymore....

Oil futures?

[hd49728]

Everyone waiting 8k levels again. Previous btc dump, almost everyone waited for 8500 or 7200 levels to buy but it bounced before, at 9k. So the majority didn't fill their bags. At 3500 usd everyone waited 3k or lower, but it bounced before that at 3100/3200. Some are still waiting for 3k and 1.400 usd.

When it happens, bitcoin will move up together with Gold. I believe Bitcoin will do its rises more seriously than Gold. And, the coming halving next year will support Bitcoin with its huge motivational fuel for the flight of Bitcoin. Bitcoin and Gold will rise together when recession occurs; but Bitcoin willl overperform Gold.
Coin Metrics

[Hueristic]

Sorry to interrupt, but can someone please let me know if I should be panicking at this point, because, TBH, I'm seriously, SERIOUSLY thinking of just tuning out anything Bitcoin related until after the halvening and just focus on IRL stuff for a while.

Think I'm finally finding a good IRL routine that is keeping me somewhat entertained and productive. Starting to really get the hang of this retirement thing.

Watching Bitcoin tank like it is, just makes me sad. I don't need it until 2021-ish anyway...

Bah. Someone hold me. No homo.

[VB1001]

Congratulations Mic!

I miss those days when I used to have more merit than you. It was something like 600 vs. only 300, now it's 899 vs. 2448.

Three things I'm absolutely sure of:

1. My death.
2. Bitcoin reaching $100k in the next five years.
3. I'll NOT beat Mic in terms of merit ever again.

You will also arrive, you are one step away from being legendary.

Here is nothing free in this world.

Bull.....  It's called an airdrop.

Almost everyone here has received free coins and tokens.

Dump 'em for BTC

FREE BTC!

I know, but I'm not interested, they ask for a lot of data, custionaries, participation in social networks.

DAFUQ is "custionaries" ?
There is quite a big difference between saying you're not interested in something free, and saying nothing is free. 

It seems you don't want to understand my answer.
NOTHING, it's free, and if you believe otherwise, you have a lot to learn.

Satoshi Nakamoto

If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.

[HairyMaclairy]

If I was any more relaxed about this I would need drug testing

[hd49728]

Sorry to interrupt, but can someone please let me know if I should be panicking at this point, because, TBH, I'm seriously, SERIOUSLY thinking of just tuning out anything Bitcoin related until after the halvening and just focus on IRL stuff for a while.

Think I'm finally finding a good IRL routine that is keeping me somewhat entertained and productive. Starting to really get the hang of this retirement thing.

Watching Bitcoin tank like it is, just makes me sad. I don't need it until 2021-ish anyway...

Bah. Someone hold me. No homo.

It's time for us, to pratice how to hodl our bitcoin.

[VB1001]

We return to 4 digits, what is the problem? crisis, recession, political tensions, it doesn't matter

BTC is here to stay, if for you 4 digits is cheap, buy.

[windjc]

Sorry to interrupt, but can someone please let me know if I should be panicking at this point, because, TBH, I'm seriously, SERIOUSLY thinking of just tuning out anything Bitcoin related until after the halvening and just focus on IRL stuff for a while.

Think I'm finally finding a good IRL routine that is keeping me somewhat entertained and productive. Starting to really get the hang of this retirement thing.

Watching Bitcoin tank like it is, just makes me sad. I don't need it until 2021-ish anyway...

Bah. Someone hold me. No homo.

Tank? Its at 3x the bear market lows. Tune out until 3 months after halving, then tune back in. You've been around too long to worry about bull market corrections.

[hd49728]

We return to 4 digits, what is the problem? crisis, recession, political tensions, it doesn't matter

BTC is here to stay, if for you 4 digits is cheap, buy.

IMO, recession help smart guys become richer. Why not take advantage from recession (if it will do occur)? You don't have to spend any resources to make recession (actually, others did), just take advantages from it, and get rich.

[VB1001]

By the way, anyone hear from our buddy V8s?

Taking the favourite wife on a big blow-out trip. see you in ~3 weeks

This was his last publication

[Lambie Slayer]

By the way, anyone hear from our buddy V8s?

Taking the favourite wife on a big blow-out trip. see you in ~3 weeks

This was his last publication

That sly dog has multiple wives, noice!