Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[lotfiuser]

so every time binance make maintenance, price changes a lot. I really think that binance is a big player and have a connection with this dump

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[fillippone]

so every time binance make maintenance, price changes a lot. I really think that binance is a big player and have a connection with this dump

If binance is the biggest exchange, probably attracts a lot of liquidity and market depth.
Liquidity means the bid-ask spread (difference between the price where you can buy and the price you can sell).
Market depths is way more difficult to attain and means how many orders are sitting on the books. If book are well populated, this means a single order cannot move the market by much, finding a lot of orders to be filled before emptying the books and then allowing for market swings.

This is why when Binance is closed, huge movements happen. Of course everybody knows when it happens, so it's easy to profit form that.

[somac.]

I don't know how many of you are keeping an eye on Honk Kong at the moment but things are getting real interesting and this is potentially a massive deal for the entire globe (including Bitcoin). Now, I have access to a group that discusses the global economy and one of its members is a very well to do business person with high level contacts within the CCP. Today I read a conversation this business person was having and it was very intriguing, so much so that I thought that people here might benefit from it. I have therefore posted it below. The person in question is named TR.

TR: China does not want to directly intervene - moderates in BJ have been holding the hawks in check. But last week, even the moderates started to indicate it was going to far. But the trap is set for BJ intervention, if it is direct, overt and very violent, the damage will be irrepairable with capital and business flight to SG.

PK: I'm not surprised by that. If it gets violent bye bye hk. It's as good as destroyed

TR: it is now - writing is on the wall - whether it is this week or next year, hk is gone

PK: Yeah true there's no real coming back from this wrt outsiders

ST: Once they declare that the two systems approach is not working and is over, the problem will be largely resolved. At the moment they cannot do anything about the protesters because they are outside of Chinese jurisdication. China has to leave it to Hong Kong to deal with. Declaring an end to the two systems approach may be dramatic but it does not need to be violent. Once the two systems is dead the Chinese can pass laws on extradiction and removal and that should freak out anyone in Hong Kong.

Who is going to protest once they understand they are subject to the Chinese justice system.

Plenty of Chinese cities will be champing at the bit to get a slice of the Hong Kong action. Certainly a lot of western businesses will decamp to Singapore but that may be seen as a small price to pay compared to ongoing humiliation.

TR: Actually a declaration of the end of the 1 country 2 system policy is extremely complex and the implications would result in the immediate change of status for banks etc in the US and EU, would create a political crisis in TW and flatten the HK economy overnight.

And no, HK is the primary conduit for capital movement and regulation for the PBOC. SH is the largest "base" for foreign HQ's in China only behind HK (20% vs 80%) and unless the movement of funds laws for foreign companies changes, these would need to move to SG.

Many SOE's are listed in HK to allow access to USD and easier capital movements as well as international bond markets. This would dry up overnight

US government is obligated to change the status of HK if the 2 system policy is changed before 2047 which would make the current trade war (it's not a trade war, but hell the tweeter in Chief knows all right) look like a macroeconomic nirvana

In other words, no, there is no solution in declaring the 2 system 1 country setup dead unless you have all the contingency plans in place, invade TW overnight and no longer need to do business with US or its allies

ST: That is just law. Laws get changed all the time. China marching in with troops will have exactly the same effect but with far more damage.

TR: no - you are missing the point - it is not just law but a whole shake up of the underlying business structure for SOE's in China and how they are able to transact business

ST: The moment Chinese authorities enter the 2 systems model is a dead duck. I am not missing the point. Law is just words.

TR: Which is why are desperately looking for back door methods to restore control

ST: There are no back door methods

If Hong Kong authorities lose control the 2 system model is dead.
Even now it is falling apart as people are claiming Chinese agents in the HK police.
The danger for China is that if they don’t the 2 system model now it may become permanent.
End

I think there is a lot of confusion because people assumed that in 2047 China would become like Hong Kong when the reverse is much more likely.

ST: The difficulty for China is that the 2 system model prevents them from controlling what is happening. They are dependent on HK controlling HK locals and that is clearly not working. The HK police are likely to be stuck chasing kids around the metro indefinitely. That China tried to get help from the triads indicates how little control they can exert. The situation is likely to get uglier and uglier until the sovereign power exerts its power and takes control of its territory.

Of course China could just cede its claim to Hong Kong. That is the best option.

The protesters don’t seem to understand that by demonstrating the impotence of the HK authorities they are demonstrating that the 2 system model is dead.
A government that cannot exert control is a dead duck and we know the reason why HK cannot exert control is because it is not a real government. It is a fake government and it is falling apart right now.

In the end China has no choice. If the HK government cannot impose its authority China will have to. Which of course is going to be a rude shock for lots of people who have assumed that an incoherent model of government is sustainable under pressure.

TR: Lets just see - I can't say what I know because it exposes who I talk to. I am sure that pressure is mounting for HK to end this, but I also know that the implications of direct involvement in the resolution of the situation is well known to many prominent decision makers.
To some extent you are seeing the response with "foreign power behind the unrest" meme that is circulating. Lets see how this plays out - like I said - they are looking at back door methods to restore control...

[realr0ach]

so every time binance make maintenance, price changes a lot. I really think that binance is a big player and have a connection with this dump

Bitcoin doesn't have ANY real form of price discovery.  Bitcoin is a TETHER DERIVATIVE.  The price of Bitcoin is artificially rigged by the criminal owners of Bitfinex like Giancarlo.  Just like MtGox, they trade with customer funds, they steal customer funds, they trade on their own exchange, they collude with the Chinese mining oligarchs to try and rig the price.  

Ask yourself, why does nearly ALL Bitcoin trading and price discovery ONLY happen on TETHER exchanges such as Bitfinex and Binance and not real exchanges?  #1 it's easier to commit fraud and rig the price with Tethers. #2 because it's easier for the Chinese criminals Giancarlo is colluding with to avoid things like capital controls with Tethers.  Any type of financial environment dominated by Jews or Chinese is 100% guaranteed to be filled to the brim with fraud and scams.  The Chinese brain does not even correlate fraud with being bad, they think scamming people is like playing a video game.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon
Observing @ $9,950
Back to 4 digit again but everything is fine. Bitcoin is strong as usual

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Good afternoon
Observing @ $9,950
Back to 4 digit again but everything is fine. Bitcoin is strong as usual

I don’t want to see sub $9,000. I know you can always use every situation as a positive & you can buy cheap coins but $8,xxx seems too close to slipping back into the bear market.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

I don’t want to see sub $9,000. I know you can always use every situation as a positive & you can buy cheap coins but $8,xxx seems too close to slipping back into the bear market.

Do you think it is looking bad?



According to this vWAP we should move up in any moment.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

And this is still above the vWAP line.



I am confident that we are good.

[aesma]

Man, what a roller coaster ! I finally bought back with a profit, going from 70% cash to 80% BTC, after 2 weeks sweating, so I won't make such big trades again.

[rebal15]

so every time binance make maintenance, price changes a lot. I really think that binance is a big player and have a connection with this dump

Considering Tweets of the desperate CZ, I think Binamce has relation with the pump from $7800.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Man, what a roller coaster ! I finally bought back with a profit, going from 70% cash to 80% BTC, after 2 weeks sweating, so I won't make such big trades again.

You mean you took the risk to sell your BTC expecting that the price will go down? Crazy 🤪

[_javi_]

Looking at 1D chart, i see we pierced MA100. That happened before in 2017 during THE bullrun. (16 July @2000usd and then 14 Sept  @3200usd) And we all know how that ended  

Corrections are ok (even i still cant find them "healthy")

If we include the external factors coming up these weeks/months, i can only expect a similar, or even more violent rise.

[hd49728]

I don’t want to see sub $9,000. I know you can always use every situation as a positive & you can buy cheap coins but $8,xxx seems too close to slipping back into the bear market.

Do you think it is looking bad?



According to this vWAP we should move up in any moment.

It is not too bad because who bought at dip can enjoy the bounce back and significant profits. However, I don't think bitcoin has already finished its correction. In my forecast, bitcoin will have to witness the last round of dip to finish its correction. When it finishes, it will rocket up, and we will never see bitcoin in the range below $14000.

[aesma]

Man, what a roller coaster ! I finally bought back with a profit, going from 70% cash to 80% BTC, after 2 weeks sweating, so I won't make such big trades again.

You mean you took the risk to sell your BTC expecting that the price will go down? Crazy 🤪

Yes. It's the only way to grow my stash, but I didn't do it right, I should have done smaller trades.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

We're back to the battle for $10k I see... currently $10038USD/$13375CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

The doldrums of summer continue. Don't worry, autumn is just around the corner.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Yes. It's the only way to grow my stash, but I didn't do it right, I should have done smaller trades.

Good lord. Happy that you recovered.

[bkbirge]

It can stay like this for years as far as I'm concerned. I'll DCA all the way.


News...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/time-for-plan-says-vaneck-exec-as-negative-yield-bonds-hit-27

I think this is nothing more than a blip...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/3b-ponzi-scheme-is-now-allegedly-dumping-bitcoin-by-the-hundreds

Given how China has captured the core group behind the scheme, and China's law enforcement history I'm expecting they'll get death.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

It is not too bad because who bought at dip can enjoy the bounce back and significant profits. However, I don't think bitcoin has already finished its correction. In my forecast, bitcoin will have to witness the last round of dip to finish its correction. When it finishes, it will rocket up, and we will never see bitcoin in the range below $14000.

How deep you think we can go from here. Correction is always healthy. Never seeing below $14k will be awesome to see however nothing is certain in Bitcoin.

[hd49728]

How deep you think we can go from here. Correction is always healthy. Never seeing below $14k will be awesome to see however nothing is certain in Bitcoin.

Around $8000, then boom, we will never see bitcoin stay below $14000.

[jojo69]

Jays in Seattle next week Jimbo.

Always a good time.