Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dyask]

great! it sounds like a not so easy system for real pros. but what the hell do you mean with SOMA. I just asked before but probably you didn't read it.

Sorry Gyrsur, didn't notice. It's an inside game for WO-ers...

Straight Outta My Ass.

Meaning, I'm not that good at TA - mainly because I don't put a lot of faith in it.  I do have hunches, but they're wrong half of the time. So I plan for both scenarios. If I smell storms, I chicken out. When I think there's a decent chance to make a little profit one way or another, I put my big toe in the water. If it feels OK, I get knee deep. And so on. I never denied it does take a little work. What matters with me is that I can do it with a cool, detached head, without impulse "recovery" trades that would drag me in the abyss. Admittedly, cool comes easier once you manage to sit on a profit buffer AND you only stake all games with the same fixed amount, stashing away the excess into cold storage, with some sensible schedule you find works for you.

I'm pretty sure TA is short for SOMA.

[HairyMaclairy]

*incoherent ranting*

Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  

I agree that we have halving knowledge, but here comes the test...
If this time around halving and S/F extension to above 50 (closer to gold) would produce 55K-90K prices (conservatively), THEN our position was truly privileged. If not, then it is still mostly random fluctuation. I hope for the former and I am keenly aware of the latter.

Most of you were probably not around the Internet bubble 1. In 1997-2000 it was simply great. No matter what you bought (out of major and even minor Internet stocks), you were doing great. Then came B2B Internet stocks and early biotechs (with no product) that inflated to tens of billions almost from the get go.
Anyone investing in these stocks has seen only a tremendous bull.
Then it all crashed (even AMZN -from $100 to $5).
If you look at the charts of the Internet stocks during 1997-2000, they looked peachy and projected fundamentals (at least of  AMZN, EBAy, etc) were even better than expected. Still everything crashed.

Granted, those stocks did not have a 'halving engine' beneath them and maybe this would be a critical factor.
However, litecoin (not bitcoin) has similar halving process, yet it crashed very badly AFTER undergoing halving recently (albeit it was rising toward halving). Maybe it does not count because it is a minor coin, but arguing that halving works only on one entity is presumptuous.

TL;DR The upcoming halving would be a huge test of the 'halving engine' and S/F guideline idea. Fingers crossed.

Gosh Biodom.  

You have a tendency to be overly skeptical regarding the bullish case for bitcoin, and even the realistic case regarding what is really going on here, in bitcoinlandia.  

If I did not see you on a regular basis in this here thread (and tending to NOT spout any nonsense about shitcoins), I would speculate that you are susceptible to getting lured into some altcoin or some other nonsense.        

LOL... i might get lured into selling a bit of btc and buying a beemer, but not into buying altcoins with btc proceeds.
That would be stupid, all things considered.
You can call me long term bullish. I was bearish when we went down hard from 13.8 and sold a  little around there (12-13K interval) while predicting 8k, which you, incidentally, poo-pooed repeatedly. Who was right in that very instance? A rhetorical question.

Now, my thesis is that 6-12 mo after halving planB's idea would be tested. It would either succeed or fail.
As a scientist, I am used to the falsification of ideas as an essential method of finding the truth (strictly speaking, rather falsification of the hypothesis).
At the moment, I am skeptical that he is right. Why? Because no other market behaves in a predictable fashion.
However, the chance of planB success is non-zero and I root for him. My portfolio would be thankful as well.

It is entirely predictable that the SP500 will be higher than it is today in 20 years time.  

All rational markets are predictable given a long enough time frame.

Given, we can argue all day long whether Bitcoin is a rational market. 

[Biodom]

*incoherent ranting*

Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  

I agree that we have halving knowledge, but here comes the test...
If this time around halving and S/F extension to above 50 (closer to gold) would produce 55K-90K prices (conservatively), THEN our position was truly privileged. If not, then it is still mostly random fluctuation. I hope for the former and I am keenly aware of the latter.

Most of you were probably not around the Internet bubble 1. In 1997-2000 it was simply great. No matter what you bought (out of major and even minor Internet stocks), you were doing great. Then came B2B Internet stocks and early biotechs (with no product) that inflated to tens of billions almost from the get go.
Anyone investing in these stocks has seen only a tremendous bull.
Then it all crashed (even AMZN -from $100 to $5).
If you look at the charts of the Internet stocks during 1997-2000, they looked peachy and projected fundamentals (at least of  AMZN, EBAy, etc) were even better than expected. Still everything crashed.

Granted, those stocks did not have a 'halving engine' beneath them and maybe this would be a critical factor.
However, litecoin (not bitcoin) has similar halving process, yet it crashed very badly AFTER undergoing halving recently (albeit it was rising toward halving). Maybe it does not count because it is a minor coin, but arguing that halving works only on one entity is presumptuous.

TL;DR The upcoming halving would be a huge test of the 'halving engine' and S/F guideline idea. Fingers crossed.

Gosh Biodom.  

You have a tendency to be overly skeptical regarding the bullish case for bitcoin, and even the realistic case regarding what is really going on here, in bitcoinlandia.  

If I did not see you on a regular basis in this here thread (and tending to NOT spout any nonsense about shitcoins), I would speculate that you are susceptible to getting lured into some altcoin or some other nonsense.        

LOL... i might get lured into selling a bit of btc and buying a beemer, but not into buying altcoins with btc proceeds.
That would be stupid, all things considered.
You can call me long term bullish. I was bearish when we went down hard from 13.8 and sold a  little around there (12-13K interval) while predicting 8k, which you, incidentally, poo-pooed repeatedly. Who was right in that very instance? A rhetorical question.

Now, my thesis is that 6-12 mo after halving planB's idea would be tested. It would either succeed or fail.
As a scientist, I am used to the falsification of ideas as an essential method of finding the truth (strictly speaking, rather falsification of the hypothesis).
At the moment, I am skeptical that he is right. Why? Because no other market behaves in a predictable fashion.
However, the chance of planB success is non-zero and I root for him. My portfolio would be thankful as well.

It is entirely predictable that the SP500 will be higher than it is today in 20 years time.  

All rational markets are predictable given a long enough time frame.

Given, we can argue all day long whether Bitcoin is a rational market.  

No, it is not (SP500). SP500 1 Jan 1929 - 24.86, SP500 1949-15.36 (61.7% of 20 year earlier value).
Nikkei- 38916 in 1989 (30 years ago!), 21597 now (55.5% of the value thirty years ago).
If anything, my favorite scenario would be Dow going to 39K (a la Nikkei), then down by 50-60% and fluctuating around there for 10-15 years.
It might happen, but I am not betting on it...I am mostly long equities in a smaller than previously % of the portfolio.

[JayJuanGee]

[ edited out]

LOL... i might get lured into selling a bit of btc and buying a beemer,

beeemees are nice, especially if you have some extra discretionary money, and you feel like rewarding yourself.

but not into buying altcoins with btc proceeds.
That would be stupid, all things considered.
You can call me long term bullish. I was bearish when we went down hard from 13.8 and sold a  little around there (12-13K interval) while predicting 8k, which you, incidentally, poo-pooed repeatedly. Who was right in that very instance? A rhetorical question.

I am glad that you feel vindicated enough to pat yourself on the back.

Rhetorical or not.

By the way, you likely already know that I don't really tend to predict short-term BTC prices, but just complain quite a bit about anyone predicting BTC prices (especially when negative).   

Now, my thesis is that 6-12 mo after halving planB's idea would be tested. It would either succeed or fail.
As a scientist, I am used to the falsification of ideas as an essential method of finding the truth (strictly speaking, rather falsification of the hypothesis).
At the moment, I am skeptical that he is right. Why? Because no other market behaves in a predictable fashion.

I think that lack of predictability is part of the reason that I frequently get so pissed off at Hairy mcsmartie-pants, yet he tends to be correct quite a lot with his quasi-reliance on fractal comparisons, even if not precise, well within a decent ballpark of correctness.

However, the chance of planB success is non-zero and I root for him. My portfolio would be thankful as well.

I cannot recall exactly what plan b is saying, but he relies on stock to flow analysis, right?  Is he asserting numbers much north of $100k within 6 to 18 months after the halvening?

Let's just assume that the number is much north of $100k within the next couple of years.
Even if planB might end up being a bit off, the "non-zero" is way the fuck higher than a mere "non-zero," and even though I might be having some difficulties narrowing it down and putting a number on it, but it probably is in the 20% plus arena.. which are decently good odds.. and of course HODLers  like us will be well advantaged by such bullish scenarios playing out, and many of us do not even need that kind of BTC price performance to be quite well off with our BTC investment.. and even its so far price appreciation.

[HairyMaclairy]

Meh may need to concede that point, even if the data is cherry picked

Japan tho is not rational.  They do not have a functional bankruptcy system.  Instead zombie companies stagger on forever.  

[HairyMaclairy]

The chart everyone loves to hate.  You can bitch and moan but it does look like it’s converging somewhat. 

[ipanks]

What do you think? 

[HairyMaclairy]

What do you think? 

Definitely darmklachten

[LUCKMCFLY]

Well now you can build your own LigtheningATM!



Y su contrucción técnica en GITHUB: https://github.com/21isenough/LightningATM

Source: https://decrypt.co/10046/ightningatm-how-to-make-your-own-bitcoin-atm

More  information here: https://decrypt.co/10046/ightningatm-how-to-make-your-own-bitcoin-atm

[LogitechMouse]

What do you think? 

More of a bearish move for me . Hope so
First time here 

[AlcoHoDL]

Hey WO gang!

Into lurking mode lately, far too busy with real-life stuff... Got a promotion at work, but not too excited about it. I do hope that soon I will not really need to work...

Corn has dropped quite a bit, so I sent a few $k over to Kraken to buy some more. Couldn't resist at such a low price. Now waiting for the transfer to complete (fiat is sooooo slow!).

In a few months' time we'll be wishing we had bought more BTC at four-digit prices. It's an opportunity not to be missed.

[ipanks]

What do you think? 

More of a bearish move for me . Hope so
First time here 

I guess so. But I don't expect to see more bearish hahaha

I hope the price can go up to $8300

[makrospex]

great! it sounds like a not so easy system for real pros. but what the hell do you mean with SOMA. I just asked before but probably you didn't read it.

Sorry Gyrsur, didn't notice. It's an inside game for WO-ers...

Straight Outta My Ass.

Meaning, I'm not that good at TA - mainly because I don't put a lot of faith in it.  I do have hunches, but they're wrong half of the time. So I plan for both scenarios. If I smell storms, I chicken out. When I think there's a decent chance to make a little profit one way or another, I put my big toe in the water. If it feels OK, I get knee deep. And so on. I never denied it does take a little work. What matters with me is that I can do it with a cool, detached head, without impulse "recovery" trades that would drag me in the abyss. Admittedly, cool comes easier once you manage to sit on a profit buffer AND you only stake all games with the same fixed amount, stashing away the excess into cold storage, with some sensible schedule you find works for you.

I'm pretty sure TA is short for SOMA.

Actually, SOMALIA (Straight Outta My Ass, Lines Included And All)  

[teosanru]

A quick Scalp Opportunity for today



On 5 minute chart we are in a sideways channel. Breaking it on either side could cause a lot of movement. So here is a great opportunity for short term traders. If btc breaks below 8200 we are getting a death crossover and also MACD Crossover and we are then going down towards 8050-8100. So you can short somewhere around 8195 and target towards 8100. It can be a good profit with some leverage on. Instead if BTC tries to move upwards in such scenario the 50MA would give a curvature upwards then buy above 8250 and target 8360 and 8400. The Stop loss should be on the other edge of this sideways channel. If you shorting SL would be 8250 and if longing SL would be 8200.

[legendster]

So now that we're back up in 8200's after a dip to the 7800's, how far do you think this rally could last?

Remember there was a similar dip to 8ks and a return to 9ks before dipping down to the current 8.2ks. Can that happen again? What do you guys think?

I still take an intermediate low of $5k-$6k around the end of Q4 into account, based on a giant bearflag, by my own lousy TA.
Otherwise i'm bullish for Q4 and 2020 in general, but if BTC is more than good at one thing, then it's to surprise.
My plan is to hodl on, save fiat, buy corn in Q1/2020 or even wait until the halving and invest in some shitcoin that is carried upwards by bitcoin, to compensate for missing out the $7-$8k range for rebuy (cause lack of fiat).


EDIT: It's all mindgames, but i won't be selling, that's for sure.

Share that TA with us. Let us also make a judgement on whether it is lazy or accurate.
tbh, $5k - $6k is way too low given the rebound tendency this year. I think by the time we close, we could be touching $9k or late $8ks.

I have my own TA for this too, but in my case, it is me who is lazy enough to not post it here 

[bucciarati]

Hey WO gang!

Into lurking mode lately, far too busy with real-life stuff... Got a promotion at work, but not too excited about it. I do hope that soon I will not really need to work...

Corn has dropped quite a bit, so I sent a few $k over to Kraken to buy some more. Couldn't resist at such a low price. Now waiting for the transfer to complete (fiat is sooooo slow!).

In a few months' time we'll be wishing we had bought more BTC at four-digit prices. It's an opportunity not to be missed.

step by step up the ladder you will find less work, no more ;-)

[rebal15]

A quick Scalp Opportunity for today



On 5 minute chart we are in a sideways channel. Breaking it on either side could cause a lot of movement. So here is a great opportunity for short term traders. If btc breaks below 8200 we are getting a death crossover and also MACD Crossover and we are then going down towards 8050-8100. So you can short somewhere around 8195 and target towards 8100. It can be a good profit with some leverage on. Instead if BTC tries to move upwards in such scenario the 50MA would give a curvature upwards then buy above 8250 and target 8360 and 8400. The Stop loss should be on the other edge of this sideways channel. If you shorting SL would be 8250 and if longing SL would be 8200.

FYI, most people in WO are not interested in 5 minute charts. Daily and weekly charts only.
Ask JayJuanGee for more infos.

[JayJuanGee]

Meh may need to concede that point, even if the data is cherry picked

Japan tho is not rational.  They do not have a functional bankruptcy system.  Instead zombie companies stagger on forever.  

How cryptic!!!!!

I suppose that this is crypto, so we are going to get some criptic, here and there.

[teosanru]

A quick Scalp Opportunity for today



On 5 minute chart we are in a sideways channel. Breaking it on either side could cause a lot of movement. So here is a great opportunity for short term traders. If btc breaks below 8200 we are getting a death crossover and also MACD Crossover and we are then going down towards 8050-8100. So you can short somewhere around 8195 and target towards 8100. It can be a good profit with some leverage on. Instead if BTC tries to move upwards in such scenario the 50MA would give a curvature upwards then buy above 8250 and target 8360 and 8400. The Stop loss should be on the other edge of this sideways channel. If you shorting SL would be 8250 and if longing SL would be 8200.

FYI, most people in WO are not interested in 5 minute charts. Daily and weekly charts only.
Ask JayJuanGee for more infos.

I understand this pretty well. But the thread is bitcoin price tracking and it's definitely no HARM in providing certain people an opportunity to look over the 5 minute chart and find some opportunity to trade upon that. Moreover OP clearly states that any type of TA is welcome until it's neatly done. So I am just trying to help the folks with my TA. If JayJuannGee Specifically says that short term speculations are not welcome I will surely ponder over his advice and try posting only long term analysis

[JayJuanGee]

be the wick you want to see.

You can gloat all that you want, but did you close your $8,420 short, or are you waiting for lower than $7,763?