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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
Yes - 60 (50%)
No, it's coming later this year - 44 (36.7%)
No, it's coming next year or after - 16 (13.3%)
Total Voters: 120

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25877755 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
fillippone
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September 17, 2019, 11:57:26 AM

For you all Plan B fans,
here you get your daily SF ration:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/hansolar#!/vizhome/BitcoinSFAnalysis/BTCValueSFModel



There, you can play, clicking stuff and trying to visualise how digital gold SF relates to physical Gold SF.

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Arriemoller
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September 17, 2019, 12:06:26 PM
Merited by Ibian (1)

Communism/ socialism has definitely gained popularity among the younger crowd.  Doesn't take a math genius to look at where all the new productivity gains are going to, heres a hint: its not going to hourly workers on the bottom the totem pole.  Wealth disparity is similar to what it was in the gilded age.

Wealth disparity is not the worst thing...historical forces that typically remove the disparity are much more disagreeable.
I am reading a book that systematically looked at what reduces inequality..and turns out only major wars and deadly pandemics (plaque in medieval Europe) were able to temporarily reduce inequality.

All societies "naturally'" trend toward increasing inequality in relatively peaceful conditions (over centuries).


It's called pareto distribution.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcEWRykSgwE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4GMUamUjT8
hv_
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September 17, 2019, 12:14:21 PM

I am also banned there. After the bullshit they were pulling, I couldn't stand anymore and went on berserk mode.

I'm glad I did. Now I can't post even if I wanted to. Let them suffocate to death.

Reddit is great shit -  useless
Arriemoller
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September 17, 2019, 12:24:17 PM


Were you born with a silver spoon in your mouth sir?

lol

hardly


lol was it hardly stuffed in ?  Grin Grin

er...read the book (it looked over many centuries).
It does not give an answer to what is right and what is wrong and/or what is preferable and what it not.
It simply described what happened and when.
To your first statement: No, the disparity does not steadily increase. It increased for a few centuries, correct, then decreased between 1930-1940 (following WWI/WWII combo, separated by just 20 years) until 1975-1980, then steadily increased again until now.
To your second statement: yes, there not many instances where the poor move several strata in one generation.
https://www.amazon.com/Great-Leveler-Walter-Scheidel/dp/0691192677/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=the+great+leveler


Thanks I'll buy it by the end of the month. Ain't got spare cash to swat a fly atm.

Unless there's an online free / pdf / bootleg version of it somewhere, then you can let me know.

But let's not forget, its just one book from one author - and it is socio-economics, something that is very hard to predict, even when using past data as example.

Think of what happened during the black plague. I remember reading some charts about the economic impact it had on the wealthy vs poor, if I find it I'll stick it here.

Pareto distribution

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4GMUamUjT8
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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September 17, 2019, 01:25:43 PM

The trick here is to not get culled.

any tips?

(asking for a friend)   Grin
jojo69
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September 17, 2019, 01:33:37 PM


...all true...

The only area he was unsure about was the longer term: if a supercycle 4.0 would hit and push it to a new ATH. I am calling bubble 4.0 as topped out at 14k and a new bear market has now begun. Long term the odds have dramatically increased for 20k to remain as the forever ATH.

That would entail the central banks pulling their heads out of their asses...I just don't see it.
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September 17, 2019, 01:55:42 PM

The trick here is to not get culled.

any tips?

(asking for a friend)   Grin
Be an obedient worker and keep your head down. As for me, I'm getting out.
Ibian
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September 17, 2019, 01:56:44 PM


...all true...

The only area he was unsure about was the longer term: if a supercycle 4.0 would hit and push it to a new ATH. I am calling bubble 4.0 as topped out at 14k and a new bear market has now begun. Long term the odds have dramatically increased for 20k to remain as the forever ATH.

That would entail the central banks pulling their heads out of their asses...I just don't see it.
They literally can't. The entire world is bankrupt, the crash just hasn't happened yet.
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September 17, 2019, 01:58:51 PM

The trick here is to not get culled.

any tips?

(asking for a friend)   Grin
Be an obedient worker and keep your head down. As for me, I'm getting out.

Mossberg.
fillippone
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September 17, 2019, 02:00:22 PM

I am also banned there. After the bullshit they were pulling, I couldn't stand anymore and went on berserk mode.

I'm glad I did. Now I can't post even if I wanted to. Let them suffocate to death.

Reddit is great shit -  useless
except for r/nextfuckinglevel.
That's a great reddit.
jojo69
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September 17, 2019, 02:03:34 PM

The trick here is to not get culled.

any tips?

(asking for a friend)   Grin

Stay away from large population centers.

Reduce dependency on centralized supply networks for water/food/power.

Do not appear to have much of anything worth taking, either by mutant biker zombies or overzealous redistributors.

Be well armed.

Develop interdependent community with other resilient households.

Avoid obvious infection vectors; the flu shot, fast food, municipal water etc.

Stock vital spares.

HODL.
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September 17, 2019, 02:11:24 PM




Needs one extra scene where a lion runs by and grabs one of the guys getting the sunshine, you can label it "regulators".
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September 17, 2019, 02:13:55 PM

Whats this crap about alts on the green and btc being tiny red?

Anon prediction about BTC dominance at 40-46%? He never said when.. but but...

VB1001
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September 17, 2019, 02:23:32 PM

CFTC Taps Coinbase Lawyer to Head Division Overseeing Bitcoin Futures

Quote
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has just named Coinbase vice president Dorothy DeWitt as its new market supervisor.

CFTC Chairman Heath Tarbert announced in a press release Tuesday that DeWitt, who is also the exchange’s general counsel for business lines and markets, will be the new director of the Division of Market Oversight (DMO), the group responsible for overseeing derivatives platforms and products, including the young market for bitcoin futures.

DeWitt has also spent time at Citadel Securities, S&P Global and Davis Polk & Wardwell, and has previously been a portfolio manager.

Her new role will see her evaluating and potentially approving new bitcoin derivatives products in the U.S. DMO has examined CME, Cboe and Bakkt’s various bitcoin futures proposals in the past.

She succeeds former DMO director Amir Zaidi, who oversaw the first bitcoin futures contracts as they entered the crypto space in late 2017.

https://www.coindesk.com/cftc-taps-coinbase-lawyer-to-head-division-overseeing-bitcoin-futures
JayJuanGee
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September 17, 2019, 02:42:27 PM

This is getting boring.

Only a couple weeks to Q4 and still over $10K though. The only thing I would not expect at all is the price to keep sideways for too much longer.

Anyway... this is (still) fine.

Fine does not equal boring


and


Boring does not equal fine




Not in bitcoinlandia.


Get a grip, or I am sending batman out.    Tongue Tongue Tongue      Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

There was no claim of a necessary relationship between the two. Just that the two occurred at the same time.
For someone so fond of writing you're quite shit at reading.

On a different note. Nice to see you're working on that brevity thing. Could still cull some dead space though.


Don't you have some BIG blocks to promote somewhere else, fatty?   Or you want to pleasure us with your BIG block worshiping, even though in these parts, we don't give any shits about your various bitcoin attack vector predilections and wishing for onchain scaling or whatever other nonsensical talking points might be your current whining hobby in thinking that there is something wrong with bitcoin.

There you go! Reasonably short without all that dead space. Well done!

Big blocks? Yah, what can I say. Follies of youth I guess. Sure good there was nothing to worry about.

https://cryptobriefing.com/ln-nodes-lightning-network/


I suppose that it is good if you are progressing towards coming around, but I see that since you are exaggerating lack of progress with lightning network as some kind of thing that you should spend time "worrying about," you are still inclined towards hissy fits and whining over matters that are "in progress"

I suppose that bitcoin is the worst decentralized project out there, except for all of the rest. hahahahaha... Anyhow, there might be some hope for you, if you at least recognize that your BIG block nonsense has some follies,  even though you seem to be admitting such "follies" with a bit too much reservation and a bit too much "wanting to be kind of right"
JayJuanGee
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September 17, 2019, 03:15:46 PM
Merited by bkbirge (1)

Bluebutts also seems to have a case of tarditus thinking JJG needs for Bitcoin to get to 100k to make money, the guy has been hodling good stash since 2014, pretty sure he is already set up well for life by the grace of our Lord and Savior King Bitcoin.

Of course, we have to take nearly everyone's assertions regarding their BTC stash or their profitability with a grain of salt; however, I would dare you to find meaningful inconsistencies in my representation of my BTC stash or my profits or even my trading practices which have remained pretty damned consistent even while tweaked and based largely on a BTC HODLing approach.


Anyhow, I had done a decent amount of accumulating of BTC in 2014 and brought my average BTC price down from $1k to below $400, and I also made some mistakes including getting hacked through sim porting, which moved my average price per BTC up to $750-ish.  I have also lost some BTC on exchanges such as WEX (used to be BTC-E), so I consider those to be risks of the practice and probably, I should have taken more value off of that exchange while the getting was good.... but these days, I probably would consider my average cost per BTC to be somewhere above $750 but still in the three digits.

Chances are pretty decent that many of us who have largely engaged in HODLing and accumulating BTC have done quite well for ourselves, even if we may have made some mistakes along the way.   

In my particular case, I was already pretty well off before I got into bitcoin, so the portion that I invested in Bitcoin was considered extra money on the side that I wanted to attempt to at minimum average the same as my other investments which had historically returned about 5.5% annually through the UPs and downs, even though I was also o.k. if BTC returned less than my historical investments because I was taking a chance on something that I considered to be new, interesting and a hedge (in case shit hit the fan, kind of a gold substitute). 

It took a bit more than 2 years of investing into BTC (between late 2013 and early 2016) before I really started to feel that my BTC investment was largely holding its own.  It was not quite to 5.5% profitable or better, but it was largely retaining its value in terms of how I had begun to play around with my investment (that is keeping some of my portfolio in dollars and some in BTC by selling on the way up and buying on the way down).  It took more than 3 years of my investing in BTC before I started to feel quite profitable, and hey I had some decently pie in the sky bullish scenarios that would make me quite happy with BTC prices in the $3k to $5k range, and so that was a kind of BTC has made me rich range - so currently I would assert that I am about 2-3x beyond my most bullish (while conservative) expectations.

So really any more BTC price appreciation makes me more rich, but even going down to $3-$5k, I am still rich.  So, I continue to feel decently confident in what seems to be the downside possibilities of BTC and the fact that I am doing quite well with my BTC investment, even at today's prices and even if BTC prices fall down to $5k.  On the other hand, I believe it is more than reasonable that BTC prices are going to continue to go up from here and a lot of us HODLers and accumulators are just going to continue to become more and more rich.

I doubt that anyone who rummages through my old post is going to find any meaningful or material inconsistencies from the rendition that I provided above, and sure sometimes the way that I phrase my situation my change through time, but it seems to me that anyone who provides too many details is just playing too much with fire, in terms of OPsec.  Accordingly, I believe that I have been more than generous with my details because I continue to come here to attempt to brainstorm with members about various BTC strategies and tactics, and for you fucking trolls and shills, out there, who fail/refuse to provide any of your personal details, then it is mostly difficult to take you seriously about any of your theoretical pie in the sky perspective... or even no coiner perspective regarding the supposed "future of BTC" blah blah blah.
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September 17, 2019, 03:57:31 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Whats this crap about alts on the green and btc being tiny red?

Anon prediction about BTC dominance at 40-46%? He never said when.. but but...



This prediction means that shitcoins without any justified fundamentals shares a (multi) trillion $ market cap...

I have a hard time believing this.
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September 17, 2019, 04:04:44 PM
Merited by mindrust (1)

Whats this crap about alts on the green and btc being tiny red?

Anon prediction about BTC dominance at 40-46%? He never said when.. but but...



TBH, I don't believe in Anon's predictions; however, I do believe that BTC has reached its dominance top (at least temporarily):



It's not very easy to fix a broken parabola.
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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September 17, 2019, 04:14:40 PM
Merited by Raja_MBZ (1)

It's not very easy to fix a broken parabola.

JB Weld
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September 17, 2019, 04:19:44 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2), El duderino_ (2), vapourminer (1), Icygreen (1), VB1001 (1)

Anyhow, I had done a decent amount of accumulating of BTC in 2014 and brought my average BTC price down from $1k to below $400, and I also made some mistakes including getting hacked through sim porting, which moved my average price per BTC up to $750-ish.  I have also lost some BTC on exchanges such as WEX (used to be BTC-E), so I consider those to be risks of the practice and probably, I should have taken more value off of that exchange while the getting was good.... but these days, I probably would consider my average cost per BTC to be somewhere above $750 but still in the three digits.

+WO merit since I'm out of the regular, thanks for sharing your story. I had a coworker that introduced me to it maybe in 2014 or so but I didn't understand the draw, at the time it seemed overly complicated for no benefit and I wasn't looking at it as an investment vehicle just as an interesting technology. Mid 2017 I got in, shortly before the big run and that made me think I'm a genius rather than just lucky and I evangelized to my family and friends. Some of my family bought in then of course at the high. They are still holding though they haven't added to their positions, whereas I've been faithfully DCA'ing ever since. My amounts and entry point mean I probably won't become personally life-changing wealthy but I'm hopeful it will accent my retirement and provide some easing through life's ups and downs for my kid. I tend to look at it as an inter generational wealth opportunity. Though I'm a confirmed hodler I have several dream benchmark levels to encourage myself...
1. mortgage payoff
2. retirement at 80% of current lifestyle level
3. retirement at 120% of current lifestyle level
4. kid's entire college tuition
5. kid's entire college tuition at a top tier school through grad school
6. retirement at 120% level before I hit actual retirement age
7. medical emergency care fund equivalent to 2x mortgage payoff
8. being able to do the same for my family
9. own first hotel on the lunar surface

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