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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26366549 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Icygreen
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October 07, 2019, 06:04:19 PM

By the way, what's with the strange 1.14 l format?
Half Gallon (aka Handle 1.75 L seemed like too much of a commitment at the time. Variety is key to long lasting happiness.
Except for the corn, there is only 1.
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HairyMaclairy
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October 07, 2019, 06:06:56 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1), gentlemand (1), d_eddie (1), BobLawblaw (1)

*incoherent ranting*


Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  

becoin
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October 07, 2019, 06:09:08 PM


He sold way below the bottom. This is why he is mad and obsessed with bitcoin.

Who sold at the bottom?

d_eddie because of "trading with a hedge"?  Wink

 Cheesy
rebal15
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October 07, 2019, 06:09:23 PM

Moon goddamit Moon Weeeeeeee, lamboooo

Moon goddamit Moon Weeeeeeee, lamboooo, girls for most of you.
Moon goddamit Moon Weeeeeeee, lamboooo, gays for Lambie.
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October 07, 2019, 06:10:01 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

d_eddie because of "trading with a hedge"?  Wink

Well, I've just sold something on the way up. Actually closed the short before loss (really tiny profit) and reopened it higher, a little larger. If she keeps going up, I will close it in loss when the long is near or above parity. As long as the long is larger I'm OK. If she gets back down, I'll cash out half of the short and play a little wait and see.
LFC_Bitcoin
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October 07, 2019, 06:13:31 PM

Someone convince me not to take $100k USD/BTC ($75k USD, after-tax) profit, next time the corn crosses $10k USD/BTC.

Thought that might be a nice little bonus to add to our home-maintenance account; Rick manages all our household expenditures, and looking to make sure our joint account is nicely stuffed before he retires. Stick $x amount of cash in the house account, dump $y dollars back into my "traditional" Rainy-Day fund, and then sort sit on a little bit in cash, for reasons I can't articulate right now.

I mean, we really don't need the money, but it's always nice to materialize bonus-fiat from these whackadoodly crypto-thingies swinging around wildly. Rick is more like "I don't want to count my chickens, dude. All these crypto dollars don't exist to me until it's realized", and I'm all like "But dude, I believe that the 2022 timeframe will be worth waiting for, before we consider dumping a chunk for our ranch endeavor, plus extra gravy". So, yeah. Happy medium with selling off a small chunk of 10 corns ?

Napa was wonderful this weekend. Beautiful weather, sampled some amazing wines. Almost overdosed at Mustards on Onion Rings and their Burger with added bacon, mushrooms, and cheese. The coupe de gras was when Rick recommended I put the onion rings onto my burger, and, well, I damn near blew chunks after stuffing down the burger - Had a good 5 minutes of crippling meat-sweats, trying to get my breathing and gut under control after downing the last two bites.

Sampled some amazing 1987 reserve from some fancy winery we flew out to visit, and it was practically all down hill from there - Nothing was going to top that '87 we drank, so I stuck to beer after that. Napa Valley produces some absolutely spectacular stuff - Mostly Cabs, if people are looking for something new to try, and not familiar with the region.

Rick and I are going to make it an annual thing, to visit during harvest season - to celebrate releases of new vintages.

Upward and onward, corn !

Bob, you’ve clearly got quite a lot of corn so if pulling out $100,000 makes your life better & brings you happiness & joy then do it. Just make sure you don’t sell any more than 25% until we’re over $50,000.
JayJuanGee
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October 07, 2019, 06:13:35 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (6)

Someone convince me not to take $100k USD/BTC ($75k USD, after-tax) profit, next time the corn crosses $10k USD/BTC.

Thought that might be a nice little bonus to add to our home-maintenance account; Rick manages all our household expenditures, and looking to make sure our joint account is nicely stuffed before he retires. Stick $x amount of cash in the house account, dump $y dollars back into my "traditional" Rainy-Day fund, and then sort sit on a little bit in cash, for reasons I can't articulate right now.

I mean, we really don't need the money, but it's always nice to materialize bonus-fiat from these whackadoodly crypto-thingies swinging around wildly. Rick is more like "I don't want to count my chickens, dude. All these crypto dollars don't exist to me until it's realized", and I'm all like "But dude, I believe that the 2022 timeframe will be worth waiting for, before we consider dumping a chunk for our ranch endeavor, plus extra gravy". So, yeah. Happy medium with selling off a small chunk of 10 corns ?

Napa was wonderful this weekend. Beautiful weather, sampled some amazing wines. Almost overdosed at Mustards on Onion Rings and their Burger with added bacon, mushrooms, and cheese. The coupe de gras was when Rick recommended I put the onion rings onto my burger, and, well, I damn near blew chunks after stuffing down the burger - Had a good 5 minutes of crippling meat-sweats, trying to get my breathing and gut under control after downing the last two bites.

Sampled some amazing 1987 reserve from some fancy winery we flew out to visit, and it was practically all down hill from there - Nothing was going to top that '87 we drank, so I stuck to beer after that. Napa Valley produces some absolutely spectacular stuff - Mostly Cabs, if people are looking for something new to try, and not familiar with the region.

Rick and I are going to make it an annual thing, to visit during harvest season - to celebrate releases of new vintages.

Upward and onward, corn !

You surely have a tendency to think in extremes.  If your partner is pushing you to realize profits, then yeah, you can just realize profits, otherwise, just cash out a small amount each quarter until we reach 2022 or whatever other BIG cash out that you are planning upon.  You can cash out incrementally between now and 2022 at whatever BTC price rather than attempting to time the market.

Let's say you are tentatively thinking about $100k now (or at $10k) and $2 million in 2022.  You are kind of waiting for the 2022 period because, like many of us, you are speculating that there is likely to be exponential growth in BTC between now and 2022.. but at the same time you are not sure.

Ultimately, you already said that you don't absolutely need BTC to go exponential in order to still be rich, so fuck it, why are you gambling so much and getting worried about it.  Instead of trying to time the market, just take half of your expected $2million and combine it with the $100k (which would be $1.1million) and just cash out incrementally, each quarter between now and 2022.  It's not going to make a BIG difference, and there should be no need to get greedy.  Everyone is then happy because you have both cash and you have bitcoin.  You have the $1.1 in cash, and you have the other $1million that you were going to cash out in 2022 that is still just riding the BTC price until 2022. 

Also, you can see some variation of my suggestion would also work out, without having to engage in such all or nothing thinking like you earlier said that you were not touching your just-in-case to appease your partner.
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October 07, 2019, 06:14:39 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

EDIT: btw, I have a 0.2 BTC open short in my books but just in DEMO account. waiting for d_eddie to get the sign if I can close it.  Roll Eyes

Heya brother-in-corn, this responsibility weighs upon my shoulders like a couple lambos! Close it as soon as it goes green. It's a short after all, better never let them go too far... or open a hedging long just in case  Grin
BitcoinGirl.Club
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October 07, 2019, 06:15:02 PM


He sold way below the bottom. This is why he is mad and obsessed with bitcoin.


Yeah I know but couldn't find anyone else to post  LOL
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October 07, 2019, 06:18:01 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

d_eddie because of "trading with a hedge"?  Wink

Well, I've just sold something on the way up. Actually closed the short before loss (really tiny profit) and reopened it higher, a little larger. If she keeps going up, I will close it in loss when the long is near or above parity. As long as the long is larger I'm OK. If she gets back down, I'll cash out half of the short and play a little wait and see.

sounds like plan. i guess your system is much nondeterministic.
d_eddie
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October 07, 2019, 06:19:28 PM

*incoherent ranting*


Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  

It's probably the last sMerit I can award to non-legendary Hairy. It's good to maintain some perspective while we live in this highly informed echo box.
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October 07, 2019, 06:19:57 PM

$8300

Kinda surprised about the strength down here. Still too little to save us from a drop to $6500, but interesting.
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October 07, 2019, 06:21:10 PM

$5k soon!!!!

Reverse engineering 🤪
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October 07, 2019, 06:23:35 PM

$8300

Kinda surprised about the strength down here. Still too little to save us from a drop to $6500, but interesting.

Fatty showing his true colors.. even if he proclaims to no longer be a BIG blocker.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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October 07, 2019, 06:24:28 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

EDIT: btw, I have a 0.2 BTC open short in my books but just in DEMO account. waiting for d_eddie to get the sign if I can close it.  Roll Eyes

Heya brother-in-corn, this responsibility weighs upon my shoulders like a couple lambos! Close it as soon as it goes green. It's a short after all, better never let them go too far... or open a hedging long just in case  Grin

it's hedged already with a long. the long is 260.2 points in green and the short is 488.7 points in red. I've borrowed the casino chips from my grandma and have to pay her back after Christmas. what should I do Buddy?

 Grin
Fatman3001
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October 07, 2019, 06:24:37 PM


We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  


This is a good point. There are some skills you can transfer to other markets, but crypto is special.
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October 07, 2019, 06:30:50 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

d_eddie because of "trading with a hedge"?  Wink

Well, I've just sold something on the way up. Actually closed the short before loss (really tiny profit) and reopened it higher, a little larger. If she keeps going up, I will close it in loss when the long is near or above parity. As long as the long is larger I'm OK. If she gets back down, I'll cash out half of the short and play a little wait and see.

sounds like plan. i guess your system is much nondeterministic.

Uh ehm, the system saw the light after a... uh... how can I explain... a dream where I saw mammoths in the charts, stampeding on us poor hodlers. It was around the time when most of us agreed we were in bear territory, long before we started talking about capitulation, which became the rage only later. I opened a short, staking most of my play money (which current me, more seasoned and detached, wouldn't do). I cashed it out a little at a time, reconstructing it at every bounce. I doubled my play money (100% btc, no fiat) in a few months, like 4-6. So the system is solidly rooted in pure SOMA practice.

It does require work and planning ahead - planning for both directions! I try to make my plans on a cool head, with no positions open, and mostly stick to them, with occasional tweaks inspired by sentiment, whim, suggestions and of course fresh SOMA results.
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October 07, 2019, 06:32:03 PM

$5k soon!!!!

Reverse engineering 🤪


?
d_eddie
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October 07, 2019, 06:33:05 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

EDIT: btw, I have a 0.2 BTC open short in my books but just in DEMO account. waiting for d_eddie to get the sign if I can close it.  Roll Eyes

Heya brother-in-corn, this responsibility weighs upon my shoulders like a couple lambos! Close it as soon as it goes green. It's a short after all, better never let them go too far... or open a hedging long just in case  Grin

it's hedged already with a long. the long is 260.2 points in green and the short is 488.7 points in red. I've borrowed the casino chips from my grandma and have to pay her back after Christmas. what should I do Buddy?

 Grin

Kill your grandma!

(Wheew, that was easy.)
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October 07, 2019, 06:34:50 PM

Who sold at the bottom?

d_eddie because of "trading with a hedge"?  Wink

Well, I've just sold something on the way up. Actually closed the short before loss (really tiny profit) and reopened it higher, a little larger. If she keeps going up, I will close it in loss when the long is near or above parity. As long as the long is larger I'm OK. If she gets back down, I'll cash out half of the short and play a little wait and see.

sounds like plan. i guess your system is much nondeterministic.

Uh ehm, the system saw the light after a... uh... how can I explain... a dream where I saw mammoths in the charts, stampeding on us poor hodlers. It was around the time when most of us agreed we were in bear territory, long before we started talking about capitulation, which became the rage only later. I opened a short, staking most of my play money (which current me, more seasoned and detached, wouldn't do). I cashed it out a little at a time, reconstructing it at every bounce. I doubled my play money (100% btc, no fiat) in a few months, like 4-6. So the system is solidly rooted in pure SOMA practice.

It does require work and planning ahead - planning for both directions! I try to make my plans on a cool head, with no positions open, and mostly stick to them, with occasional tweaks inspired by sentiment, whim, suggestions and of course fresh SOMA results.

great! it sounds like a not so easy system for real pros. but what the hell do you mean with SOMA. I just asked before but probably you didn't read it.
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