Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

Personally, at least on my side, I have come to peace with Mark, and I would love to hear what he has to say.

My rudeness toward him is a matter of record, which I will own.

[JayJuanGee]

1.) When the price hits $9,000 on BITSTAMP you must post a Vegeta meme

..that's a heck of a long game. Hopefully one day in the distant future someone wins it !

Hm?  Does not seem likely to be very long away at all... probably 6-9 months in a worser-case scenario... and could be 1-2 months in a better case(but seemingly unlikely) scenario... some where between those two scenarios seem the most likely..

Your presumption of a kind of longer game of over a 18 months to 3 years before BTC gets back into challenging ATHs seem quite implausible, even though your theories do seem to have some chances, even though seemingly small.. and sure, your presumed timeline would:  1) largely challenge or even come close to negating the stock to flow model... 2) surely you are negating the four-year fractal model.. and 3) theoretically delay the happenings of the s-curve exponential adoption based on network/metcalfe effects model.

But, hey, each of us have our theories and our assignments of probabilities to outcomes.. We might need to call your BTC price predictions the Majormax model, even though it seems to be based on a kind of wishful-thinking and desire to negate the most convincing of current BTC price prediction models.. and it does not even have a decent name yet.. maybe we could call your BTC price prediction model the "Majormax's BTC is a mature asset model?"  Wat-chya think?.

[mindrust]

In a world where the FED panic, who am I to not panic? LoL

Now people see that too and that interest cut pump is gone fast.

I don't know what is safe. Probably nothing. Not gold, not cash, not btc.

this is a complete global meltdown. Many people will die. This is not a small scale war in the Middle East.

The dollar is pulling a supernova. No matter what the FED do, it will keep going up because the demand is infinite on dollar.

The FED is trying to counter balance it by putting more money into the system but how can you counter infinite demand? By creating infinite supply. That 700billion is nothing. Make it 700 quadrillion.

[JayJuanGee]

I was wondering why the screen light up in green few minutes ago.
Reducing reserve requirement to zero? Does it mean that bank can give unlimited loans when they have NO deposits?
That's a nice business to be in. Maybe I should re-fi my car loan or mortgage? They should give me 0%, right? /s

I was wondering that too. Technically it would mean infinite money, which is kinda cool.

But I'd wait till they are paying you at least 8% to take their shit money.

It seems to me that there are plenty of longer term BTC HODLers who have established some kind of incrementalism investment plan, presume that bitcoin is kind of designed to pump for a decently long period of time into the future (if not "designed to pump forever" as Matt Odell likes to proclaim) going to appreciate in value to an amount that is at least competitive, if not greater, than the average returns of various interest bearing investments.  Accordingly, there does not really seem to be any kind of justification to attempt to "earn interest" on your bitcoin..especially if HODLers end up putting their bitcoins at risk by attempting to employ various kinds of interest-seeking ways to HODL their bitcoin(s).

[AlcoHoDL]

I didn't lose faith in bitcoin. I lost faith in humanity.

I’m in Bitcoin, because I never had faith in humanity.  Bitcoin is a system which exploits ruthless self-interest to coerce people who hate each other into cooperation—for the good of Bitcoin, not for each other.

I am sorry for your loss.  By that I mean, your dearly departed coins which I know you are mourning.

I have all of my life savings in Bitcoin.  All the liquid money that I have, aside from hand-to-mouth scraps of fiat to cover my mundane expenses (and I live simply).  It is money that I cannot afford to lose; for I was never an investor, and I never thought of it as a financial investment per se.  Bitcoin is to me more than money.  Also, I can’t preach something to people if I’m not living it.  —Also, I play for keeps; and that means going all in.  I have always been that way.

For the past few days, I have been ignoring the market (as I usually do).  I don’t even know the current price exchange rate (non-monetary commodities have prices; currencies have exchange rates!).

I couldn’t panic-sell, even if I wanted to:  I have never had a KYCed fiat-crypto exchange account.  Getting my money into Bitcoin anonymously was a major project; and it cost dearly, especially given that I was ignoring the market as usual.  Selling my coin for fiat would be even more difficult, because it’s easier to spend fiat cash anonymously than to obtain fiat cash anonymously.  But I don’t mind being stuck with Bitcoin.  Married to it.

Now, it is foreseeable that in the near future, I may wind up with Bitcoin and no food.  I am a practical man; and frankly, I will admit that I would rather have food.  Still, I am glad that I have my Bitcoin.  Bitcoin makes me happy.

I was pleased, when I saw this:

Nullius' sole objective is to facilitate the mass adoption of bitcoin.

That is actually not emotional on my part; and it is not a religion, my sense of humour notwithstanding.  Bitcoin is the concrete embodiment of higher principles.  At this point in history, it is one thing that can help slow our descent into a terrible abyss.  That, I care about more than I care about money.


I don’t recommend buybacks based on emotions, any more than I would recommend panic-selling.  The cool, savvy approach will result in having more Bitcoin in the long run.  I do think the banks are trashing us now.  Panic-selling means money value in their pockets (correction noted as to a principle that most people never understand: the nature of money); so would whipsawing around with effectually FOMOing.  Just pretend that you are approaching this for the first time—so, how would you get into Bitcoin now?  Pretend that you just saw the term “maximalism” for the first time, and you’re such a n00b that you assume it means maximizing the amount of Bitcoin that you have. ;-)

+1 WOsMerit. Added to merit queue.

[JayJuanGee]

Out of curiosity: where in the world is Waldo (Trace Mayer)?
Pomp is around , planB as well, even Tone Vays, but Trace is missing in action (at least on twitter).
Interesting...maybe sold too many puts on his bitcoin? He was always professing that trade (through LedgerX), which I find inane.
I wonder how many blockfi loans got liquidated as well...

Trace Mayer lost a lot of credibility after shilling Mimblewimble coin in this interview and got flamed by the BTC maxi's
I think he's to ashamed to show his face now. His bags must be heavy.

Trace did not shill too much in that particular video, but I agree with you that he is being beaten up in regards to his recent seemingly too much mimblewimble shilling.

[VB1001]

Good morning WO,s

BTC Dominance: 64,2%


https://imgur.com/M2lWwla

[nullius]

VB1001, love it.

In a world where the FED panic, who am I to not panic? LoL

Hey, after a few days off the forum for fateful reasons, I just posted a long polemic in Politics & Society about how it is panic that will destroy the world.  Panic already wrecked your hard-won HODLings. :-/

I don't know what is safe. Probably nothing. Not gold, not cash, not btc.

Life is not safe.

Life is risk, and death is a part of life.

...destroy within yourself every particle of the sick modern mindset based in the fantasy that the world can be made safe.

Not gold,

Gold is golden—if you can keep it.  No matter where you are, nowadays, good luck with that, if SHTF and you are not very carefully prepared long in advance.

not cash,

I heard that toilet paper is in high demand.

not btc.

Was Bitcoin ever “safe”?  It is powerful:  A powerful idea that can change the world for the better.  Therefore, it has powerful enemies.  I bet on Bitcoin.

this is a complete global meltdown. Many people will die. This is not a small scale war in the Middle East.

Metldown caused by panic.  See the trend?  Yes, I think it is a meltdown.  To increase your chance of surviving it, first of all, don’t panic.

The dollar is pulling a supernova. No matter what the FED do, it will keep going up because the demand is infinite on dollar.

The FED is trying to counter balance it by putting more money into the system but how can you counter infinite demand? By creating infinite supply. That 700billion is nothing. Make it 700 quadrillion.

Is this a good time to HODL fiat?

What’s better than hyperinflation?  Infinite inflation?

I know next to nothing about daytrading.  I study history.  This is exactly the sort of move that is used to suck value out of the market—i.e. out of the populace.  Dollar-holders will be left holding the bag.  At this point, I think the only question is whether they will lose it all (in which case it is really SHTF), or they will “only” get sheep-sheared much more than usual, in purchase-power terms.


Pop quiz:

America was a quite free country in 1932 (unlike today!).  Pretend that you are an American in 1932.

In 1932, it was also in economic turmoil amidst the throes of the Great Depression.

Do you put all you have left into gold?  Congrats, you are now forced to trade it for toilet paper in 1934.

Do you HODL dollars?  LOL!  *crash*

There was no Bitcoin in 1932.

N.b., I never claimed that Bitcoin was “safe”—especially in a time of disaster, when more than ever, nothing is safe.  Choose your best available options.

[mindrust]

But my high school teacher told me that panic is a good thing. We raise our adrenaline levels when we panic and adrenaline keeps us alive. (We are actually sophisticated animals)

I guess he lied to me

Even Tyler Durden says it!

[JayJuanGee]

I didn't lose faith in bitcoin. I lost faith in humanity.

I’m in Bitcoin, because I never had faith in humanity.  Bitcoin is a system which exploits ruthless self-interest to coerce people who hate each other into cooperation—for the good of Bitcoin, not for each other.

I am sorry for your loss.  By that I mean, your dearly departed coins which I know you are mourning.

I have all of my life savings in Bitcoin.  All the liquid money that I have, aside from hand-to-mouth scraps of fiat to cover my mundane expenses (and I live simply).  It is money that I cannot afford to lose; for I was never an investor, and I never thought of it as a financial investment per se.  Bitcoin is to me more than money.  Also, I can’t preach something to people if I’m not living it.  —Also, I play for keeps; and that means going all in.  I have always been that way.

For the past few days, I have been ignoring the market (as I usually do).  I don’t even know the current price exchange rate (non-monetary commodities have prices; currencies have exchange rates!).

I couldn’t panic-sell, even if I wanted to:  I have never had a KYCed fiat-crypto exchange account.  Getting my money into Bitcoin anonymously was a major project; and it cost dearly, especially given that I was ignoring the market as usual.  Selling my coin for fiat would be even more difficult, because it’s easier to spend fiat cash anonymously than to obtain fiat cash anonymously.  But I don’t mind being stuck with Bitcoin.  Married to it.

Now, it is foreseeable that in the near future, I may wind up with Bitcoin and no food.  I am a practical man; and frankly, I will admit that I would rather have food.  Still, I am glad that I have my Bitcoin.  Bitcoin makes me happy.

I was pleased, when I saw this:

Nullius' sole objective is to facilitate the mass adoption of bitcoin.

That is actually not emotional on my part; and it is not a religion, my sense of humour notwithstanding.  Bitcoin is the concrete embodiment of higher principles.  At this point in history, it is one thing that can help slow our descent into a terrible abyss.  That, I care about more than I care about money.


I don’t recommend buybacks based on emotions, any more than I would recommend panic-selling.  The cool, savvy approach will result in having more Bitcoin in the long run.  I do think the banks are trashing us now.  Panic-selling means money value in their pockets (correction noted as to a principle that most people never understand: the nature of money); so would whipsawing around with effectually FOMOing.  Just pretend that you are approaching this for the first time—so, how would you get into Bitcoin now?  Pretend that you just saw the term “maximalism” for the first time, and you’re such a n00b that you assume it means maximizing the amount of Bitcoin that you have. ;-)

In the real world, many of us need to balance our fiat and our bitcoin, and the vast majority of people are going to consider a variety of ways that they are able to liquidate their bitcoin, if needed.  

So, I am not sure how useful it is, if any of us is forced to HODL by NOT having liquidation avenues.

Recall in late 2017 and early 2018, there was a member here who was striving to figure out how to cash out some BTC, and purportedly the quantity added up to several $million.. and so there were issues with cashing out through coinbase, and Gemini ended up being a more practical avenue for that member.  Can be kind of fucked, if any of us needs (or wants)  to sell or shave off some BTC and convert into dollars and have no avenues to accomplish such liquidity.

Of course, if the timeline of any of us is long enough, such as 5-10 years, then maybe we will figure out our liquidation avenues at that time.  

I personally believe that it is somewhat crazy to take your bitcoin to your grave with you or even to pass them down to heirs who likely do not deserve them even close to as much as the HODLer/accumulator deserves to keep them whether the purposes are for hookers, lambos and blow or other self-indulging reasons (such as eating steak and lobster rather than catfood).

Yeah I dunno

I shaved off my "feeling better" money at $13

dollars

...I ain't doing that shit again

What about the hookers, lambo, blow, steak and lobster, instead of catfood?  

Helrow, jojo?

[edited out]

How is that for negativity?  :-)

It's almost like Armageddon, so yeah, pretty damned negative.

Personally, I don't tend to put more than a small amount of effort in Armageddon scenarios.  Sure it is good to be prepared for extremes, but gotta be careful NOT to invest too much into a scenario that might only have a 1% chance of happening, even during our chicken head cut-off state of affairs.

[fillippone]

@APompilano
The Fed just announced historic actions of emergency rate cut to zero and $700 billion in quantitative easing.

If the Fed had to do THAT a few weeks into the crisis then obviously everyone's thinking "how much worse do they expect this situation to become".

All those money-printing bandaids won't help until the underlying reason is cured. I appreciate cheap dollars though, might come in handy for taking some cash out of the house before real estate prices collapse.

Yeah, please go and explain that to Ms Cristine Lagarde who did exactly the OPPOSITE last week effectively doing nothing for the EURO zone and effectively raising rates for Italy.

[Cryptotourist]

Now tell me again that I am overly concerned.  

Okay, you are.

Don't think you know better - cos you're smart and have doctors for friends.
You don't. Nobody does.
That was my point regarding the 2nd, 3rd and 4th virus wave (LOL) in China you previously mentioned in your post.

[bitebits]

1BTC=1BTC (bite me!)

Do you presume that bitserve has "bite" in his name for mere symbolic purposes? 

Do you happen to know the past tense of bite?

You better watch your lil selfie....  gonna get chewed up... and don't come crying to any of the WO peeps as if no one tried to warn you about welcoming such lil selfie consumptions.   

Pac-Man? (1980)

[hung58bitcoin]

I think 5k9 resistance is too hard for BTC. So my margin strategy at this time, if BTC is above 5k9, I will bet Long and if BTC is below 5k9 I will bet Short.

[somac.]

The bleeding begins again, sigh!

Mindrust. You will have another opportunity to enter again and it will probably be a lot less that at 4500. If you don't already have a re-entry plan now is the time to draw one up.

[Paashaas]

The FED literally has no dry powder left.

Rate cut to 0% plus printing record-breaking $$.

The result: the markets totally dismiss it and drop like a stone (futures market hit its -5% limit). Is this the beginning of the end for the fiat financial system?

[nutildah]

Oof, just a 2 hour stop before sawing through $5k on big volume. Dow set to open at ~ -5%. Going to be another shitty week I presume.

Is this the beginning of the end for the fiat financial system?

I don't think so, but it certainly has been a bit fucked as of late.

[Wekkel]

The price will be tied to the (stock) market panic for a while, it seems.

The difference is that Bitcoin is already near its bottom price. No Nanny holding its hand. No regulations forcing someone to hold or sell.

Don’t you love free markets at work?

[Wekkel]

The FED literally has no dry powder left.

It has plenty, but not without consequences.

The financial markets crashing touch one of the twin pillars (asset values).

Further FED actions will start scratching the other twin pillar: treasuries/the dollar.

This pillar is the linchpin. Watch it the coming months to see whether all will fall down or this will have been another one of those ‘once a decade’ buying opportunities.

[somac.]

The FED literally has no dry powder left.

It has plenty, but not without consequences.

The financial markets crashing touch one of the twin pillars (asset values).

Further steps will scratch the other twin pillar: treasuries/the dollar.

This pillar is the linchpin. Watch it the coming months to see whether all will fall down or this will have been another one of those ‘once a decade’ buying opportunities.

I agree with Wekkel here. The FED have unlimited firepower, don't underestimate them. Also don't watch the equity markets for when the FED pulls the trigger. They couldn't care less about that at the moment. Their focus is on the credit markets, they must absolutely not have a continuing credit freeze, and I can assure you the have the ability to fight it.

They can buy a lot of debt, government, corporate, even individual. And if liquidity issues persists they will continue doing whatever it takes.