Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

I talk bullish shit all the time. I'm a hardcore permabull 

There was a game from Bitcasino to predict the bitcoin price in Euro. Did you see how the guy who picked the lowest won the price. All of us thought the guy was crazy at least I did LOL

[AlcoHoDL]

Guys 'n' gals, I just can't believe what I'm reading...

The Halving is coming in May!

Let me say that again: The Halving is coming in 54 days!

Who, in their right mind, would sell any amount of Bitcoin at this time? (*) To sell any amount of hard earned coins now is equivalent to admitting that you do not understand how Bitcoin works and/or you do not realise its significance and potential as a monetary instrument. We're talking about the Internet of the 80s. Travel back in time and think what you would do then if you knew what you know now about the Internet...

The reason I bought my first 0.5 BTC (and several more soon after) in 2015 was to own Bitcoin before the 2016 Halving, because I knew that it would rise significantly because of it. It was right there in the algorithm, right in front of me. It was talking to me. Something that's not possible in the stock market. And boy did it rise! Much more than I had anticipated.

Most of us are in this scene long enough to have lived through at least one Halving. I cannot accept that anyone who's been through such experience would sell any amount of BTC now, unless it's part of a carefully laid out trading plan to take advantage of the volatility, and even then I would be very cautious.

For me, the safest bet now is to 1) HoDL, 2) Buy if you can, 3) Wait it out.

In December of 2020 we'll be dreaming of the long-gone 4-digit times when we could buy so cheaply... Well, that time is NOW!

(*) mindrust, no disrespect to you, I know the feeling, nearly panic sold at the beginning of 2017 because of a big dip then, but Kraken saved me by failing to execute my order due to their servers being slower than a ZX Spectrum 48K running Windows Vista. Listen to what the other WOs are saying. Try to buy back now, even if it means owning less BTC than before. It's a shitty feeling, I know, but you can't begin to imagine how shitty you will feel in December 2020 if you don't get in now. No amount of TP will be able to save you then. It's a shitty deal, I know, but act wisely, take it like a man and get in now.

-----

Open your eyes fools!
Stack satoshis while you can.
54 days left...

#haiku

[Cryptotourist]

I've been thinking about mindrust. #nohomo

What is extraordinary (nutildah mentioned it first), is his sincerity about the incident.
Should that had not been so, we wouldn't have known - and/or whatever.

It is important to pause, and take the lesson here.
The shake down of a weak (in retrospect) over-invested bull, realizing a capital loss - but most importantly abandoning all hope and position, is not to be taken lightly.


Question: If BTC goes to $2k, will you buy 20 coins or not? I'm guessing a solid no.

I will not rub it in your face any more.
Hopefully you will do what is best for you.
Oh, and $50 per month, won't fucking cut it.

For one, thank you for sharing.

[fillippone]

The European Central Bank has launched a 'bazooka' $820 billion pandemic fund to aid markets. 'There are no limits.'

The European Central Bank (ECB) has unveiled a new €750 billion ($820 billion) response to the coronavirus in a bid to calm financial markets.
The so-called Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) comes less than a week after the central bank announced policies which did little to provide comfort to traders.
It follows similar plans by the Federal Reserve and numerous major economies to stem the damage from Covid-19.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/coronavirus-lagarde-announces-ecb-pandemic-fund-to-calm-markets-2020-3-1029011851

People would be happy if the money was distributed to families.

$1.5T in Repo
$1.1T Commercial paper relief
$1T in US fiscal stimulus
$750B QE from ECB
$600B QE from the Fed
$600B bank loan guarantee (France/UK)
$500B in loans (Germany)
$300B in Japanese stimulus (proposed)
$100B in fiscal stimulus across Europe


Craziest week ever!

Dear diary:
what have I one today?

• I stayed put inside my quarantine in Covid- Land
• I progressed in my online Pyton Course
• I ate a full box of trofie al pesto (complete of potatoes and green beans)
• I posted a little on bitcointalk.org
• I used my thread 5 Resources to teach Average Joe about Bitcoin and the facts reported above to finally get a friend of mine to fund his account on Stamp and buy some Bitcoins.

It was a good day, after all.

[JayJuanGee]

Well, it took some time but finally the money from my 'debt restructuring' plan I made about a month ago came in. I actually stuck to the plan I had made a month ago and bought at whatever price BTC had at that moment. And for the very first time ever, the price didn't immediately tank after I bought! I think I broke the spell!

Did you at least get in at sub $6k?

5.783,47

O.k.  Great...   Could have been better, but could have been worse, too.

At least, you have a little bit of a cushion, and in the long run, those are much better prices than the $8k-$10k-ish territories from a couple of weeks ago.

Hopefully, in one or two years, you can pay off the whole loan.. to the extent that you want or feel that paying off all or part of the loan would be in your interest... Sometimes, if there is merely an appreciation of value in your investment (here, bitcoin), there might not necessarily be any rush to reduce your loan debt, unless you feel that you can catch some of your cashing out of bitcoin during a sufficiently valid exponential price rise. 

I would imagine that you have given some thought to some of these kinds of scenarios in order to make an outline of a tentative plan.  You have probably realized that I personally do not like to play these kinds of situations with all or nothing kinds of tactics so, I would be considering incremental ways to cash out some BTC in part at various points up the price line if I felt that it might be good to reduce that debt while taking some profits from BTC, too.... but if the loan is manageable or becomes somewhat manageable with the passage of time, then sometimes you still might find it prudent to let the debt ride and just pay it off over a longer period of time while NOT having to cash out too much of your BTC stash at a possibly less good timing.

[Cryptotourist]

Don't know about you guys, but I'm in an extreme holiday mode.

I give two shits about nothing.
Maybe only touched about the alcohol ban in the Philippines.

Waiting for the weather to warm up, so that I can stroll nude in town.

[Cryptotourist]

I honestly can't wait for Vegeta this time round.
Not for competing for LFC's corn, but for another reason.

Oh sir, yes sir.

~ CT imagining bashing contingency scenarios ~

[JayJuanGee]

Most of us are in this scene long enough to have lived through at least one Halving. I cannot accept that anyone who's been through such experience would sell any amount of BTC now, unless it's part of a carefully laid out trading plan to take advantage of the volatility, and even then I would be very cautious.

Even though you are probably somewhat correct, AlcoHoDL, with your presumption that there are a decent number of WO thread regulars who have been through at least one halvening, in recent times, I am having my doubts about whether going through one halving is going to be enough for the vast majority of regular peeps, unless they happen to be decently rich before getting into bitcoin and putting a decent quantity of value into bitcoin before the effects of the halvening has truly kicked in.   

In recent times, I am thinking that the vast majority of regular peeps are going to need to hold through a couple of halvenings, unless kind of best case scenarios develop, and we should not be assuming best case scenarios.

Even if someone has established an investment portfolio of $100k, and then decide to be somewhat aggressive with BTC with a 20% investment into BTC, that would only be $20k and might not be a sufficient amount to reach fuck you status.

Surely, I agree with what seems to be your essential message, and that is that there is a kind of algorithm that is quite likely to play out that is going to cause a likely stepping up in the BTC price, so no one who is seriously trying to grow his/her BTC investment should be fucking around with any kind of large amount of BTC selling, but instead be focusing on accumulating BTC in this price arena while it lasts...  and my point remains that even if guys do that.. they are likely going to need a few BTC halvening cycles before they are likely to be able to get into a kind of comfort zone (or maybe 1.5 cycles might end up working out decently well for some too?)....

[Patel]

I think we're about to see a bull market for the next 4 months. Based on the 3D chart.

[nullius]

Let me say that again: The Halving is coming in 54 days!

Honey, I need to mortgage you so that I can accumulate some more Bitcoin before the halvening.

Not a new thought.  Also, as usual for me, it is not a wise investment strategy; people should ask Jay for those.  I am an extremist. ;-)

Who let the 14-year-old quora reject post here?

If you want to insult me with the type of nonsense that says everything about you and nothing about me, then please at least have the balls to say my name.

Though you’re not the only one who is afraid to.


I assume this is unrelated—but just in case, for the record:

Whats with all these disgusting no-hatters on our WO thre- oh. A pump. I see.

From trying to figure out where mindrust had gone, I wandered in here during the dump, before the pump.  I wouldn’t change my avatar for the same reason that I don’t have a paid signature, and would only take one to avoid immediate personal catastrophe (admittedly possible).


Life is just one big string of interruptions lately.  One after another...  Reply to mindrust stuck in drafts box.  I hope Jay’s advice is well taken:  It is sound, logical, and pro-Bitcoin without being hotheaded bull.

[julian071]

Well, it took some time but finally the money from my 'debt restructuring' plan I made about a month ago came in. I actually stuck to the plan I had made a month ago and bought at whatever price BTC had at that moment. And for the very first time ever, the price didn't immediately tank after I bought! I think I broke the spell!

Did you at least get in at sub $6k?

5.783,47

O.k.  Great...   Could have been better, but could have been worse, too.

At least, you have a little bit of a cushion, and in the long run, those are much better prices than the $8k-$10k-ish territories from a couple of weeks ago.

Hopefully, in one or two years, you can pay off the whole loan.. to the extent that you want or feel that paying off all or part of the loan would be in your interest... Sometimes, if there is merely an appreciation of value in your investment (here, bitcoin), there might not necessarily be any rush to reduce your loan debt, unless you feel that you can catch some of your cashing out of bitcoin during a sufficiently valid exponential price rise. 

I would imagine that you have given some thought to some of these kinds of scenarios in order to make an outline of a tentative plan.  You have probably realized that I personally do not like to play these kinds of situations with all or nothing kinds of tactics so, I would be considering incremental ways to cash out some BTC in part at various points up the price line if I felt that it might be good to reduce that debt while taking some profits from BTC, too.... but if the loan is manageable or becomes somewhat manageable with the passage of time, then sometimes you still might find it prudent to let the debt ride and just pay it off over a longer period of time while NOT having to cash out too much of your BTC stash at a possibly less good timing.

Yes.

[toknormal]

Another breakout incoming.

[bones261]

Whats with all these disgusting no-hatters on our WO thre- oh. A pump. I see.

From trying to figure out where mindrust had gone, I wandered in here during the dump, before the pump.  I wouldn’t change my avatar for the same reason that I don’t have a paid signature, and would only take one to avoid immediate personal catastrophe (admittedly possible).

But your hat will come with your current avatar already included. You really should ask for one. Wearing one will get you lots of +1 WOsmerits. If you are going to invade our hive, you should at least try to mimic us and then you will gets lots of honey, guaranteed.  

"You are in a beehive, pal. Didn't you know? We are all busy little bees, full of stings, making honey day and night. Aren't we honey?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=el7aue8hBGE


I'll even do a waggle dance for you, if you wear a hat. Here's a preview of the delights that you are in store for. No HOMO

[dragonvslinux]

poor mindrust.... 

Not necessary.

Look at the bright side, now I know how it feels to be over-invested.

This is true, there is a positive in this: knowing how much you want to be invested.

I'll be honest this pump still doesn't feel real to me. Yes I am sorry. Yes I fucked it up but that's how I feel.

Don't apologize, it was your decision and shouldn't concern anyone else.
Did you fuck up? Are we really going to moon, or just coming back down further?

I can afford to lose $50/weekly on btc. No more, no less. I don't care what will happen to it in 10 years. I can afford to hodl that amount forever. I know It is not going to make me a millionaire too. Again, I don't care.

This is a really good minset 

I guess dip buying made me greedy and greed is not good.

Greed made me lose control.

You want all and spend all then you lose all. That's what happened basically.

Lesson learned, I am starting over.

Greed takes over everyone, try not to take it personally.

Let's close that shitty topic now.

Ok. Take care.

[toknormal]

Earwig. Low.

7k incoming.

[ivomm]

I know what mindrust was feeling and don't blame him for that. I went through the same emotions myself in 2017. Luckily the bad decisions were compensated by the right choices I made. I shared them several times but mindrust did't see the solution to his problems. Ok, let me try for one last time.

1. The fear of the Tether: What can happen if Tether explodes? The worst thing is BFX to be closed. This exchange has become a cancer for Bitcoin in the last 2 years, so its closure would be for the better. Will there be some drop of the price - may be just for a small period of time. Back in 2017 I was surprised that the bank problems with Thether didn't influence badly the price. On the contrary, the price went from 1000 to 3000.

2. Is it possible for the price to go to 0? No, mathematically speaking this can't happen. Look at the orders of Coinbase - under $500 there are 3-4 mil bitcoins on the bid side. If you follow the sites with Bitcoin inflows charts to exchanges, you will see that each day between 10K and 50K normally are deposited into exchange wallets. During crashes like in Dec 2018 and 13 March 2020 there were peaks of 444K and 220K daily inflows, respectively. How on Earth this will fill the bids for 3-4 mil BTC?

3. What if it goes significantly below your main entry price? You have to keep some good reserve and have a plan for that. If your entry was $4K and the price goes lower, just wait up to 3 months. If the price doesn't return to your level, and you want to be cautious, wait for it to find the bottom. If for example BTC stays at $2K, buy at this point, so when the price returns to $4K, you will have some profit. If the price is lower than $1K, hey - this is every late investor dream - to buy at 3 digits! You may have over 50BTC with your reserve!

4. It is better to accept the loss of bitcoins and rebuy at 10-100% higher level than to be sorry one day. I rebought at 70% loss after my stupid sell at $2750. I didn't have a clue that the price will return twice to $3K in Sept 2017 and Dec 2018. But now I think this price range is very unlikely to be reached again, so it is not advisable to wait for such black swan events.

With these fears taking care of, you will feel happy whatever move Bitcoin makes. If it goes higher you will be happy your networth increases in terms of fiat. If it is getting low, you know a way out not by selling but by investing more. For this you need only to believe that Bitcoin will recover sooner or later.

Regarding the selling, this is a whole new topic. For starters, you may just make a plan like JJG suggested some time ago. It can also invole some buying back in case the price falls. I personally prefer to sell at my selling point the planned amount, and if the price falls to buy back my coins and withdraw the fiat profit in my bank. This is in case I don't need the bigger amount for some purchase. Anyway, feel free to explore further this plan.

[toknormal]

Barting back up the charts.

OBV on the 6-hour now shows only accumulation after that margin call asteroid hit. Will it get all the way back to 8k inside a weekly candle ? That is the question.

Notice that even when the price was still declining into the dip, the balance of the volume had already reversed and accumulation had begun.

[JimboToronto]

Good afternoon Bitcoinland.

Looks like the panic is subsiding... currently $6351USD/$9222CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Hopefully everyone stocked up during this (possibly last) great buying opportunity.

Onward and upward. Go Bitcoin go

Most of us are in this scene long enough to have lived through at least one Halving. I cannot accept that anyone who's been through such experience would sell any amount of BTC now

I just missed the first halving but I got to enjoy the resulting bubble. I'd read my history about prior bubbles and knew the ensuing crash and bear market wouldn't last long.

Sure enough, it was less than half a year before we had another bubble and crash. Through both, I refused to sell a satosi (although I did spend a little on some ASICs and a spiffy BTC ballcap). Our renowned Speculation sub-forum moderator said it would go to single digits before reaching 3 digits again in the summer of 2013 but some of us knew better.

I took considerable heat from the trolls in 2014-5 for saying that 4 and 5 digits were inevitable while the negative Nellies were calling for double digits again.  It took a little longer this time but by the time the next halving had time to sink in we not only had our 4 digits back but 5 digits too.

Anyone with a brain who's been paying attention at all (and ignoring the so-called "experts", TA "legends" and other morons) can clearly see that 6 digits are inevitable within a year or 2 of the halving.

Selling just because of a silly black swan event panic is just plain stupid.

This was the time to buy.

[Patel]

This whole month reminded me of July '13.

Also, if you look on a log 6m chart, it looked like we were going to revisit the 3k's. I'm glad it was fast. Took about 2 weeks rather than dragging it on for months.

[Wekkel]

Going to sleep.

Please don’t crash again during the night, missing my buy opportunity