Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mindrust]

That's a very good fundamental analysis. The only thing that I would say to this is that you don't really know since you are not in that situation and, hopefully, never would be.
For all current disbelief, almost everyone can be in a "mindrust state" (sorry for the pun) IF the price change is catastrophic. It is somewhat easy to discuss this during a strong rally, but I know myself well.

I could possibly hold to a very low number, but ONLY if I already took profits that cover my initial investment. That part in non-negotiable for me after I essentially lost a large (for me) account during the 2001-2002 crash. Bought some very speculative stocks on a small margin and as these stocks were cratering, I had to sell EVERYTHING so my account had some positive value (and not negative). That was a lesson to NEVER invest more than 20% (usually just 10%) of my portfolio in anything at ALL. 20% is a mechanical rule. I promised myself never to exceed it. In fact, when something does approach 20%, I eventually take profits so invested [$$-profit] approach 10% (or even lower) back from 20%. I do let profits run otherwise, don't care what % of the overall portfolio one item represents aka no rebalancing. The 10-20% rule only refers to the original investment.

I am just reading your post now and you just wrote exactly what I did few posts earlier. (percentage-wise)

Well, I was getting close to %50 with my initial investment and the downwards movement was scary af.

Kinda agreed with your invest %10 normally and %20 if you are greedy rule. I'll probably won't invest more than %10 of my wealth in crypto again and I'll take profits when it reaches %20+.

Right now I am at %1 so I have a long way.  

[JayJuanGee]

I'll say it again: poor Mindrust. One day he'll become popular like that bitcoin pizza guy by showing up on TV and telling his story of how he sold the bottom at ~$3800?

True, Laszlo's pizza is significant in the history of Bitcoin - but that is a random thing. As opposed to him being the very same guy who coded up the first (known) GPU miner. Which of course is a much more significant accomplishment.

Mindrust is just an unfortunate misguided chump who panic sold.

The difference is Laszlo probably still had many, many bitcoin’s. mindrust sadly became a NOCOINER due to his misguided cowardice.

Mindrust probably made a few $50 purchases.  Remember he said $50 per week...

but yeah, he will probably end up panicking again, at some point and buying too many at too high of a price.

Remember that mindrust said that he had learned his lesson during the last bullrun from 2015 to 2017 and that he was NOT going to make the same mistakes again, but when push came to shove, he pretty much dropped back into some kind of similar pattern and into making the same mistakes that he had made previously.

Sure, maybe his mistakes had a bit of a different flavor from the earlier ones , but still ends up being some kind of variations of the same earlier pattern.

Definitely it can be really hard to learn new behaviors when many of us have tendencies to become overly emotional about our investments, and trying to improve on the model and becoming too arrogant with ourselves and not really realizing that we are gambling too much in one direction.. so in that regard, we presume that we are both financially and psychologically prepared, but when push comes to shove, we did not even sufficiently harmonize our investment strategy with our own deficiencies (we all have deficiencies, and probably part of the difficulty is to attempt to best harmonize our investment strategies within those deficiencies so we do not screwing ourselves because we had failed to properly harmonize).

Mindrust is just an unfortunate misguided chump who panic sold.

Maybe.
It looks like that, but just maybe.

Yeah... right...  

You should know better than that, Cryptotourist.

It looks like that, but just maybe.

I'm just sad that dude didn't just re-buy and HODL at least 1 BTC. Maybe he did. Who knows.

He didn't.

[bitebits]

@Mindrust

There are still a lot of risks and concerns in the eventful Bitcoin world. That is why the price is so low today. If all your concerns are taken away, Bitcoin would have a way higher valuation and be boring price wise. You can’t have both.

[aesma]

@mindrust, you should know a bit better with the words if it goes to zero.... to many strong hands and fundamental believers....

I hope you will invest a bit and at least buy a full BTC to HODL, start some DCA again and stay interested.
I do understand the feeling of being over invested isn’t easy to live with, but nothing comes easy in life.

Buy btc cause you don’t trust the current system, buy btc for financial freedom and don’t let fiat wealth be the main factor...

Cheers and be safe and happy with your decisions

Obviously It cannot go to zero as long as the network functions but it can go to $3-5k and stay there for a long time if the world economy loses its shit completely. Maybe even $1k.

If it goes back to 5K buy one or two, if it goes back to 3K 2-3 more, 1K 5 more, and you're back to 10BTC for 24K !

[Toxic2040]

treehuggers

me?



you?




 

[JayJuanGee]

Anyone else getting weird emails from circle?

is it the new scam?

You have received 0.00056197 BTC from Circle

You have received 0.00069818 BTC from Circle


They look legit in source and links, but while I may have made an account there years back I surely never deposited that I can recall.

I just looked into it, and it appears that they are crediting for BCH and BSV based on whatever BTC balance that you would have had in your account on August 1, 2017... the snapshot time of the BCH forkening.

[Wexlike]

Well, I was getting close to %50 with my initial investment and the downwards movement was scary af.

Guess I'm a madman then with my crypto portfolio allocation of +90%. 

[Searing]

ah...

my obscure ASIC miner purchases at 'bottom feeder prices' may yet work out!

bruhahahaha (cough...evil laugh needs work)

brad

edit: we need a new poll maybe?

[Last of the V8s]

rollears

[OutOfMemory]

G'day gentlemen  
Finally got my tax refund today, but i had to watch BTC go up about $300 until i had time to buy.
Bad luck, i thought BUT
after that, the king went up another $600.

#HODL  

EDIT: Time to look for vegeta memes...

[Biodom]

Anyone else getting weird emails from circle?

is it the new scam?

You have received 0.00056197 BTC from Circle

You have received 0.00069818 BTC from Circle


They look legit in source and links, but while I may have made an account there years back I surely never deposited that I can recall.

I just looked into it, and it appears that they are crediting for BCH and BSV based on whatever BTC balance that you would have had in your account on August 1, 2017... the snapshot time of the BCH forkening.

Thereby possibly screwing those account holders vis-à-vis their reported taxes (for 2017).

[mindrust]

Well, I was getting close to %50 with my initial investment and the downwards movement was scary af.

Guess I'm a madman then with my crypto portfolio allocation of +90%.  

Depends when you bought them.

You know if you bought 100 coins when the price was $100, you invested $10k. Let's say you had $100k at that time... Right now you would be sitting on $1m. At worst, if btc goes back to $100, you still would have $100k around.  

So you are pretty much in a "don't give a fuck" position. My average was around $7k (from my own pocket) and at that time I thought I was lucky for getting out from 4.5k. (my average when you count all the forks, trades, signature payments etc) 

I am just making a fresh start here. See me like a guy who just learned about crypto. 

[El duderino_]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y90yaLFoYoA

Perfect dance to go along with a pump

[Searing]

Anyone else getting weird emails from circle?

is it the new scam?

You have received 0.00056197 BTC from Circle

You have received 0.00069818 BTC from Circle


They look legit in source and links, but while I may have made an account there years back I surely never deposited that I can recall.

I just looked into it, and it appears that they are crediting for BCH and BSV based on whatever BTC balance that you would have had in your account on August 1, 2017... the snapshot time of the BCH forkening.

Thereby possibly screwing those account holders vis-à-vis their reported taxes (for 2017).

not sure about that..they were ONLY informed in 2019? (or is that not how it works)

I thought it had to hit your 'address' you control in the USA anyway...no control because you did not know this existed would be my stand on this

then again I may be 'naive' on this whole tax stuff

Brad

edit: my FOMO music on pumps

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGZ0ntpSx2Y

[STT]

10% gold as a hedge to the failure of all other assets is a classic rule.    I'd say over 90% of investors dont adhere to this rule and I expect the market to swing from disinterest to blind stupidity in pricing and already a few go overboard and invest too much in some inert metal that doesnt exactly have utility without the rest of the economy.   The native peoples left the heavy rock on the ground because its worth to a mobile tribe was poor, they weren't wrong.   So in 1849 you could fill a bucket with the yellow rocks picked off the ground apparently, doesnt sound real but every market can see extremes to supply and demand.
   We saw this with oil recently, I'm thinking of all the possible uses for energy, desalinators and all kinds of big usage and yet oil traded as a trash or waste product like sulphur does most often.    The inverse like carbon credits maybe or CDS in '08, is oil tanker rental contracts went up 1000%   nice for smart anticipators of that market excess.   Every market has to have a winner and loser to the price or we see it tear itself apart, its not a one off.


So I do doubt BTC would goto 1 dollar (without protocol interruption etc), the surprising thing is from the worst critics on Bitcoin is they say it has a use likely always and estimate a few hundreds for price is the worst.   The reason being more then one major FIAT standard is set to destroy itself so the use of a standard not biased to politics or the needs of only one part of the market gives it a worth especially as BTC trades non stop always.   The price is secondary to time and utility of people who need it to trade other things globally, digitally in an independant way.

BTC price is at year average roughly and also arguably an old trend

[Last of the V8s]

[hodl_2015]

is it the new scam?

You have received 0.00056197 BTC from Circle
You have received 0.00069818 BTC from Circle

They look legit in source and links, but while I may have made an account there years back I surely never deposited that I can recall.

For a real scam you would have to use much bigger numbers, especially if 99% of the world populating thinks 1 BTC would not be enough to buy an ice-cream.

[OROBTC]

O.k.  Presuming that I might possibly have more than one bitcoin, that one bitcoin is a good goal, and remember how long it had taken Mindrust to get to 2 digits?   I am not going to suggest that I am better off than him or worse of than him.. at least where he was at.  He was proud of reaching 10BTC and then either the same day or the next day, he sold everything..... Fuck.

I'll say it again: poor Mindrust. One day he'll become popular like that bitcoin pizza guy by showing up on TV and telling his story of how he sold the bottom at ~$3800? Anyway, his story is just another hodling fuel for me. Sell now regret it later.  

Did someone call me. xd

Selling from the bottom costed  $40k+ now btc is going above $8k and possibly will keep losing while it keeps going up. Still though, I know how It felt when I was over-invested. That's something I don't want to experience ever again.

Got %1 exposure in crypto right now and it feels quite good actually. In time It will reach %10-20 probably and I don't want it to go higher than that. I don't expect anything more from this investment tbh. I'll mostly keep staying as cash in the next 3-5 years.

I don't see this disease going away soon.  Still making my $50 weekly buys, no big deal. Got some alts like ltc and xmr too. (I am not %99.99 btc anymore) If these all reach their ATH's again, it'll make up for my losses last month. I don't expect anything more from crypto.

It is all about how you feel safe, well, I feel safer when I got more cash around. (no offense, I don't feel safe with an asset that is volatile af) Back to buying lottery tickets. If they go high, its good. If they go to zero, who cares. Stopped being greedy about it. It doesn't do good to me.

*I'll also be extracting cash out of it as long as it keeps going above %20 of my portfolio. (That's something I should have done since the beginning) Last month changed my views on making investments a little bit.  (hopefully in a positive way)

Actually I don't have any negative comment on mindrust's situation or logic.  Nor JJG's (even if they disagree w/ each other, haven't been keeping up with their dialogs). 

Circumstances come by from time-to-time which may force us to make decisions that later on prove to have hurt...  It's happened to me many times.  My trading (not BTC, but SPY "puts" long ago) has demonstrated to me beyond a reasonable doubt that trading (gambling) does not work for me.  Never could get the hang of it.  Same with playing poker in casinos (referring to many bad sessions playing poker there, fortunately for low stakes).

And the circumstances forcing a premature or other sale of BTC or whatever can come from many sides...  FOFOA (my go-to gold guy) has suggested to NOT own too much gold, as circumstances (medical bills, etc) may force one to sell part of the "stack" for needed liquidity, and typically at a BAD time.  Even as he expects gold to go to $55,000 - $100,000 per ounce.

"Circumstances" are a major reason that I like diversity and NOT pushing limits in owning non-traditional assets (and even traditional ones).  Like mindrust, I like to keep a fairly ample supply of CA$H/U$D around, because "circumstances" happen.  Shit happens.  Black swans and all.

I too am hoping my BTC will make a meaningful positive contribution to my (and my family's) overall financial position.  Like mindrust, I am not (too) greedy.  As I have no idea what will happen to BTC (nor even gold), I place my bets based on my perceptions of perceived probabilities vs. potential gains/losses (risk/reward), and I try to read up as much as I can.

Many (almost all of you?) of you guys are younger than I am.  Younger people have more time to recover from mistakes, I do not.

Gold BTC Bearing Guy is proud to ride with the W.O. posse. 

But do keep in mind that all of us need to be careful and that each of us have differing issues.

[bitebits]

For wall observing: http://live.bionictrader.io/bionic-trader

[Biodom]

Anyone else getting weird emails from circle?

is it the new scam?

You have received 0.00056197 BTC from Circle

You have received 0.00069818 BTC from Circle


They look legit in source and links, but while I may have made an account there years back I surely never deposited that I can recall.

I just looked into it, and it appears that they are crediting for BCH and BSV based on whatever BTC balance that you would have had in your account on August 1, 2017... the snapshot time of the BCH forkening.

Thereby possibly screwing those account holders vis-à-vis their reported taxes (for 2017).

not sure about that..they were ONLY informed in 2019? (or is that not how it works)

I thought it had to hit your 'address' you control in the USA anyway...no control because you did not know this existed would be my stand on this

then again I may be 'naive' on this whole tax stuff

Brad

you are probably right, but this is more of the 'interpretation' scenario.
A discusson of what 'control' means.