Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

S’up guys,

I haven’t been as active as I normally am, getting kinda bored with the total non-existent price action at the moment. There’s not really much to discuss at the moment is there? It’ll come, all in good time but I haven’t had the motivation to post that much in here the last couple of weeks (at my usual rate any way).

We’re getting close to entering Q3 of this absolute shit show of a year, hopefully honey-badger is ready to start treating us as we go into July & beyond. I’m certainly ready to see my bags begin to gain in value, 1BTC = 1BTC etc etc but it’d be nice to start getting close to $11,000 or $12,000.

Any way just checking in, have a good weekend. Love you guys #nohomo

[OutOfMemory]

I think that planB now realized this, so he came up with S2FX, which does not have an exact timeframe and generally talks about the 2020-2024 period, which could be backloaded and also caused by inflation closer to mid decade.

I doubt that PlanB is as worried as you are  making him out to be.  He is likely just ongoingly playing with his numbers or his formula to make sure that it is reflecting ongoing events.  Of course, anyone can look at past variants, too in order to see how much the model may be shifting, rather than solid, but even if it continues to get tweaked, I doubt that it has really been shown to have major flaws.. and really any of us should be taking the model with a grain of salt, anyhow... I recall initially he was projecting the 2021-ish time frame as $50k, then he went to $100k, then he went to $288k, and sure whatever number he comes up with may or may not happen, and who cares?  Sure some people might become overly reliant on such model and its predictions, and thats on them for not being critical enough in their thinking about it.. or maybe having a plan for either way.. since it is hard to really predict the future with any precision, which is part of the reason that any of us should be having some broad picture plans that account for a variety of scenarios that include both extremely bullish, bearish and even mediocre, and of course, tweaking along the way while trying to somewhat stay with a scenario is a whole hell of a lot easier than NOT acting and waiting and waiting and waiting for the odds to get in your favor and that's almost never going to happen.. in other words it is way better to be acting on way incomplete information because tweaking along the way is way easier than if you never had any momentum or stake in the first place.

Models are always being adjusted to reflect reality (price), models are always incomplete, at least in some way, and if IIRC, planB (or Burger) also somehow mentioned this in some recent reply to a S2FX concerning tweet already.

S’up guys,

I haven’t been as active as I normally am, getting kinda bored with the total non-existent price action at the moment. There’s not really much to discuss at the moment is there? It’ll come, all in good time but I haven’t had the motivation to post that much in here the last couple of weeks (at my usual rate any way).

We’re getting close to entering Q3 of this absolute shit show of a year, hopefully honey-badger is ready to start treating us as we go into July & beyond. I’m certainly ready to see my bags begin to gain in value, 1BTC = 1BTC etc etc but it’d be nice to start getting close to $11,000 or $12,000.

Any way just checking in, have a good weekend. Love you guys #nohomo

OK, but promise me/us that you won't go mindrust if bitcoin temporarily tanks again next time    
Do something good to yourself today as well! You deserve no less, you know...

EDIT: I'm in a very good mood today, and i just wanted to share and spread a bit of this to y'all here.
Change is good, if you can embrace it. My mrs. is out of the house for the next two days, which means a lot of change over the course of a day when you have to take care of four kids. I am generally the more relaxed person than her, but i'm about ten years older and went through a lot more of the mean shit of life than her, which also made me grow (by embracing it - don't take that literally, btw  ).
So the first day of mrs-out-of-home brought me and my kids together more than ever before, emotionally and (don't beat me for this term) spiritually (i know...   but it's exactly that). I wouldn't have had the chance to encounter this with her always-caring, more concerned way being present and influent all day. I tried to encourage her quite often to leave for a couple of days and just do something good for herself in this time, but she never won the fight against that caring/concerning part of her, and now she was forced through education.

This is why i wanted some WO members, and i implicitly want for the rest of us, to go and just do something good to yourself - and hopefully it will do something good to your loved ones too.

Off for #hodlsleep now  

[yefi]

Dude enters his seed holding 6 bitcoins into a Chrome extension???SMH
Bye bye bitcoin.
My condolences but good lord, being a hodeler since 2013 he really should have known better.

https://twitter.com/ericsavics1/status/1271589769336598528
(Apologies if already posted)

It may seem heartless to say, but you have to take responsibility for your own actions. Also, begging for handouts is a poor show. If a handout goes to anyone, it should go to the victims of Lady Fortune.

[Biodom]

Here are my thoughts:
1. If stocks seriously tank (20% probability), btc would tank just as well with bear market continuing. Yes, until we exceed 20K, we are still technically in a local bull market within a longer bear market.

Likely that is a fair probability assignment, yet I am not sure if you can presume that BTC would tank to the same degree nor on the same timeline as stocks.. Let's say that some kind of Japan-like bearmarket ensues.. Maybe after a few years bitcoin might start to recover, perhaps?  Or, let's say equities are down 10-20 years, and that would not necessarily mean that bitcoin might not start to recover in that, even if maybe bitcoin crashes deeper and harder, but there remains a considerable amount of difficulty to ONLY ascribe a long term correlation expectation to bitcoin under such circumstances.. and even there are variants in the degree of such a worse case scenario in terms of recovery, supply lines, war, another currency taking over or all currencies stagnate?  Maybe you are suggesting gold is going to prosper in such a scenario while bitcoin languishes, which seems quite unlikely too, except maybe some weird scenario in which internet and computers no longer exist, and you are likely not predicting that scenario to be within your 20% worse case scenario, right?

yes, of course, in a long bear market in stocks (10-20 years) btc could recover much earlier and even go to ATH at some point.
I was mostly referring to planb's scenarios for 2021 and 2020-2024.

[OutOfMemory]

Dude enters his seed holding 6 bitcoins into a Chrome extension???SMH
Bye bye bitcoin.
My condolences but good lord, being a hodeler since 2013 he really should have known better.

https://twitter.com/ericsavics1/status/1271589769336598528
(Apologies if already posted)

It may seem heartless to say, but you have to take responsibility for your own actions. Also, begging for handouts is a poor show. If a handout goes to anyone, it should go to the victims of Lady Fortune.

I lost my first transaction through a trojan (installed by testing "mining" software), luckily it was a test amount of 0.01 btc from exchange to wallet, but i didn't check the destination address twice, because clipboard contents can't change... (...right?)
I am glad that i made that mistake so early, glad that it was a tiny amount as well.
I can eventually feel with this guy a little, IF his story is actually true, IF the steal was real....

EDIT:
But what i essentially wanted to say was:
It's not heartless to give a man one of the most valuable advices in life, after he stepped into its shit!

(Edited so many times because of errrrrors, time to give it up against the nap)
SLEEP WELL

[Biodom]

Incredible numbers here (savings rate 1959-2020):
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings

33% savings rate when the last 25 years it was 5-7%.
What does this mean? Short term inflation is unlikely, long term, probably, guaranteed, with even a small whiff of goods shortage.
Everything is out of balance so I am keeping a hefty cash balance in my ret accounts.
Maybe the next 5-10 years is capital preservation time and we would have to be running just to stay put.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@JJG

You have my word, I will NEVER go full mindrust. I’m not selling anything until at least $30,000.

[Torque]

Incredible numbers here (savings rate 1959-2020):
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-savings

33% savings rate when the last 25 years it was 5-7%.
What does this mean? Short term inflation is unlikely, long term, probably, guaranteed, with even a small whiff of goods shortage.
Everything is out of balance so I am keeping a hefty cash balance in my ret accounts.
Maybe the next 5-10 years is capital preservation time and we would have to be running just to stay put.

Research here shows that as long as the FED long term interest rate stays below 4%, the world will remain in a stagflationary or deflationary quagmire:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-stunning-chart-blows-all-modern-central-banking

But what about the relationship between rates and savings, and by extension inflation? After all that is the topic of this post. Well, we can now confirm that our intuition from 2015 that negative rates are not only not inflationary but outright deflationary, and encourage consumers to save even more, was correct all along.

Below we post a chart from the latest Research Investment Committee report by BofA titled "Stagnation, stagflation or elevation", which with just one image blows up everything that is flawed with monetary policy. It shows that while lower rates indeed stimulate spending and lead to lower savings, this effect peaks at around 4% and then goes negative. In fact, the lower yields - and rates - drop below 4% - not to mention to 0% or below - the lower the propensity to spend and the higher the savings rate!

But equity and asset price inflation will continue to skyrocket.

[JayJuanGee]

Poor toxic. Having doubts about king daddy.  

Have you heard of the stock to flow narrative?

 

 

Vaguely aware of such a concept yes..  Narratives interacting with black swan events tend to be disrupted..that all I was saying.

I am fairly certain that no matter how long it takes...we are heading in the direction we all wish to go. That what happens in the short term (ie. the next year or so), I am prepared...as I think you are as well.

Whilst I cant say I have no doubts...I consider them trivial.

O.k.. So, I am gathering that I can go back to calling you toxic moxic, since we are all back in a good moo and largely on the same page.  

[JayJuanGee]

Dude enters his seed holding 6 bitcoins into a Chrome extension???SMH
Bye bye bitcoin.
My condolences but good lord, being a hodeler since 2013 he really should have known better.

https://twitter.com/ericsavics1/status/1271589769336598528
(Apologies if already posted)

I get so confused trying to figure out transactions, and from the links that he provided about where his bitcoin's went, I thought that there were 12 bitcoins sent.

 Am I missing something?

Also, it looks like ericsavics@ericsavics1, the guy who lost his coins, had created a BTC address for the hacker to send back funds, and it looks like, so far,  he received 79 transactions (at the time of my typing this post) that amount to 0.54615978 BTC, which presumably are donations from various members of the BTC community.

Regarding his mistake, yeah, it surely does seem as if he should have known better, even though it is one of those kinds of mistakes that anyone could get tricked into, accidentally... so I am not sure what lessons to get from this kind of mistake.  Perhaps, one lesson is that each of us should practice with our devices and our storage mechanisms on a regular basis to make sure that they work and using small amounts to transact, but I also understand that there are some risks with overly playing around too, so there tends to be some responsibility in ongoing learning how to be your own bank because if you fuck something up, then there is no one to go crying to in order to reverse the mistake, especially when it comes to sending coins and gosh, if you send all of the coins in your wallet at one time that is a pretty BIG deal, too.

Also, I suppose, if any of us is holding most or all of our coins in just a few spots (presuming that they are large amounts), then we might want to reconsider how and where we are holding our coins, too.

But, specifically, the mistake that ericsavics@ericsavics1 made was to enter his password or key words into a chrome browser when the keys should be entered into the device (presumably a Trezor, Ledger or one of the other hardware wallets?)... Many longer term studiers of those hardware wallet products have likely heard over and over about that kind of mistake of not to enter your information over the browser but instead to verify on the device, but like I said it does seem to be a mistake that anyone could make, especially if they do not practice using their hardware device or their wallet on a regular basis and/or they are not studying various aspects of the bitcoin space on a regular basis (which I don't necessarily expect normies to be spending anywhere near as much time as me (I admit I have a problem, but I still believe that I am capable of making lots of mistakes and not knowing some basic things) or any of you other fucking WO regulars in terms of ongoingly studying bitcoin related matters).

One of my first suspicious thoughts was that he might have made up the steal to trick "heartwarm" people into donating some satoshis, and after you posted this, i thought it seems to have worked out if my ego's assumption was right.

As you like to say: perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.
Perhaps we'll never know  

I think that is one of the reasons that it would be so difficult to insure bitcoin holdings on the retail level because there almost has to be some kind of trusted third-party verification that the person might not have been paying himself.  Not saying that we do not have those kinds of frauds in the traditional markets because it is quite likely that a decent amount of credit card charge backs might not end up in double reward or even though some insurance carriers are able to show that a house was burned it can be unclear if the contents might not have been removed prior and the fire merely looked like an accident.  Bitcoin might be even more difficult to determine, but sometimes we do witness some wrong-doers, hackers or scammers getting caught.

[JayJuanGee]

Here are my thoughts:
1. If stocks seriously tank (20% probability), btc would tank just as well with bear market continuing. Yes, until we exceed 20K, we are still technically in a local bull market within a longer bear market.

Likely that is a fair probability assignment, yet I am not sure if you can presume that BTC would tank to the same degree nor on the same timeline as stocks.. Let's say that some kind of Japan-like bearmarket ensues.. Maybe after a few years bitcoin might start to recover, perhaps?  Or, let's say equities are down 10-20 years, and that would not necessarily mean that bitcoin might not start to recover in that, even if maybe bitcoin crashes deeper and harder, but there remains a considerable amount of difficulty to ONLY ascribe a long term correlation expectation to bitcoin under such circumstances.. and even there are variants in the degree of such a worse case scenario in terms of recovery, supply lines, war, another currency taking over or all currencies stagnate?  Maybe you are suggesting gold is going to prosper in such a scenario while bitcoin languishes, which seems quite unlikely too, except maybe some weird scenario in which internet and computers no longer exist, and you are likely not predicting that scenario to be within your 20% worse case scenario, right?

yes, of course, in a long bear market in stocks (10-20 years) btc could recover much earlier and even go to ATH at some point.
I was mostly referring to planb's scenarios for 2021 and 2020-2024.

Well, if planB's price projection is partially based upon projecting future price from past performance, and some aberration, such as a black swan event, causes the present performance to skew the future performance direction, then that would not mean that planB is wrong, it just means that some new data changes the trajectory of the curve.... and maybe it changes it a lot or maybe it just changes the trajectory a little.

Currently, we have no evidence of a changed trajectory, merely some speculation from you about the possibility of the trajectory being changed, and you seem to be placing the odds of the trajectory being changed at something like 80%, which just seems ridiculous the more that I think about it.

Think about it yourself.

You seem to be trying to discredit a BTC price prediction model that is highly correlated and cointegrated with existing data with an assumption that the BTC price is correlated to equities markets.  Think about it.  You seem to presume that BTC prices are correlated with equities, and then you set up various what if scenarios that build upon your assumption, when your assumption is far from even close to being true in the first place even though we have witnessed some short term correlation of BTC and equities, there is nothing really showing longer term correlation of BTC and equities - which makes it a pretty lame hypothesis to inject into attempting to show some flaws in the stock to flow model.. and sure I am not presuming that the stock to flow model is perfect or it is going to end up playing out correctly, but the stock to flow model is, at least, based on building a future trajectory that is attempting to come to reasonable and logical projections based on past performance.

[JayJuanGee]

@JJG

You have my word, I will NEVER go full mindrust. I’m not selling anything until at least $30,000.

I understand that I have harassed you several times previously, but this time, it was OOM cautioning (harassing) you NOT to go full mindrust, not me.

Look:  Here's the evidence:

[edited out]

OK, but promise me/us that you won't go mindrust if bitcoin temporarily tanks again next time    
Do something good to yourself today as well! You deserve no less, you know...

Seems to me that Oom is going all soppy and sentimental, mererly because wifey left him with the four kids to bond for a few days.  

I was going to make a similar response to Oom, but I noticed that he seemed a bit too far gone in emotion for any kind of attempt at reason, so I was thinking that sometimes just gotta let these emotional thingie=ma-jiggies ride... #nohomo.  

So, sure, my inclination of thought is that you are not likely to go full mindrust, but I am never going to take those kinds of proclamations for granted, even if you scream until you are blue in the face.. sometimes things can just happen, and if you snort a bit too much coke one night, you never know... you could start getting soppy feelings at the wrong time... which sometimes happens and could happen to any of us, humans..... so, never say never.  You might regret saying it... .  hahahahahaha  

[Hueristic]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ez1iu-zx7eE

[DaRude]

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1271468034931036160
https://twitter.com/SCAONTIERLLP
https://twitter.com/DanDarkPill/status/1271475981014888448?s=20

https://twitter.com/fluffypony/status/1271471545790222336

Just so we're clear, Craig Wright has just openly admitted (via his lawyers) to be the guy that stole 80k BTC from Mtgox. The screenshots below show the court documents indicating the "1Feex" address is where the stolen Mtgox funds were sent. What do you have to say, @CalvinAyre?

just lol

Why not first "recover" funds on BSv chain that he controls? He must be in pure desperation, last gasps for air, before he looses Kleiman case.

[JayJuanGee]

I just watched this 43 minute video by Bob Loukas, and perhaps it could be described as a kind of cyclical BTC prediction model that attempts to project BTC prices in four 4-year cycles (16 years)... . that strangely start in about 2011-ish... so he seems to have skipped an analysis of the first 2 years of bitcoin's price action which is fair enough, since bitcoin really did not have much of a price or even a meaningful ability to reasonably find price in the first couple of years...

So for Loukas, he sees the existence of cyclical and secular bear cycles, so cyclical cycles are not as large of drops and don't really drop below previous highs, but a secular bear cycle would perhaps go longer and lower than the earlier lows, but would be a likely factor for any asset class, including bitcoin.

Loukas has some decently good ideas, even though towards the end, he does provide some reasonable criticisms of our "cherished" stock to flow model, too.. and in that regard, Loukas might be showing a bit of his attempt to treat bitcoin as any other asset class and to down play bitcoin's paradigm shifting special nature (as a money... which has never really been done previously). 

I don't have any real problems with anything that he is saying, except that maybe his suggestion that there might only be one or two more cyclical cycles upwards before there comes a longer down secular bear cycle down.. so maybe a wee bit more bearish than some of the bitcoin is designed to pump forever theories.. which are also kind of reasonable in a bit of an exaggerated way.. .

https://youtu.be/dWosOcbo9JM

[Biodom]

Here are my thoughts:
1. If stocks seriously tank (20% probability), btc would tank just as well with bear market continuing. Yes, until we exceed 20K, we are still technically in a local bull market within a longer bear market.

Likely that is a fair probability assignment, yet I am not sure if you can presume that BTC would tank to the same degree nor on the same timeline as stocks.. Let's say that some kind of Japan-like bearmarket ensues.. Maybe after a few years bitcoin might start to recover, perhaps?  Or, let's say equities are down 10-20 years, and that would not necessarily mean that bitcoin might not start to recover in that, even if maybe bitcoin crashes deeper and harder, but there remains a considerable amount of difficulty to ONLY ascribe a long term correlation expectation to bitcoin under such circumstances.. and even there are variants in the degree of such a worse case scenario in terms of recovery, supply lines, war, another currency taking over or all currencies stagnate?  Maybe you are suggesting gold is going to prosper in such a scenario while bitcoin languishes, which seems quite unlikely too, except maybe some weird scenario in which internet and computers no longer exist, and you are likely not predicting that scenario to be within your 20% worse case scenario, right?

yes, of course, in a long bear market in stocks (10-20 years) btc could recover much earlier and even go to ATH at some point.
I was mostly referring to planb's scenarios for 2021 and 2020-2024.

Well, if planB's price projection is partially based upon projecting future price from past performance, and some aberration, such as a black swan event, causes the present performance to skew the future performance direction, then that would not mean that planB is wrong, it just means that some new data changes the trajectory of the curve.... and maybe it changes it a lot or maybe it just changes the trajectory a little.

Currently, we have no evidence of a changed trajectory, merely some speculation from you about the possibility of the trajectory being changed, and you seem to be placing the odds of the trajectory being changed at something like 80%, which just seems ridiculous the more that I think about it.

Think about it yourself.

You seem to be trying to discredit a BTC price prediction model that is highly correlated and cointegrated with existing data with an assumption that the BTC price is correlated to equities markets.  Think about it.  You seem to presume that BTC prices are correlated with equities, and then you set up various what if scenarios that build upon your assumption, when your assumption is far from even close to being true in the first place even though we have witnessed some short term correlation of BTC and equities, there is nothing really showing longer term correlation of BTC and equities - which makes it a pretty lame hypothesis to inject into attempting to show some flaws in the stock to flow model.. and sure I am not presuming that the stock to flow model is perfect or it is going to end up playing out correctly, but the stock to flow model is, at least, based on building a future trajectory that is attempting to come to reasonable and logical projections based on past performance.

The "experiment" (future price trajectory) will show. I did not like the fact that planB concocted a second model BEFORE seeing if the prior would work out or not.
Since he replaced the first one (S2F) with a second one (S2FX) I posit that the first one is inferior and from what I saw so far, indeed, it is.
Yes, I give 80% to no 100K in 2021 and, hence, invalidation of S2F model, but not S2FX model.
Lame or not lame-we shall see, won't we?
In fact, hodling should become even stronger as there would be no high price enticement to sell, at least in 2020-2021...well, with 80% guesstimated probability.

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1271468034931036160
https://twitter.com/SCAONTIERLLP
https://twitter.com/DanDarkPill/status/1271475981014888448?s=20

https://twitter.com/fluffypony/status/1271471545790222336

Just so we're clear, Craig Wright has just openly admitted (via his lawyers) to be the guy that stole 80k BTC from Mtgox. The screenshots below show the court documents indicating the "1Feex" address is where the stolen Mtgox funds were sent. What do you have to say, @CalvinAyre?

just lol

Why not first "recover" funds on BSv chain that he controls? He must be in pure desperation, last gasps for air, before he looses Kleiman case.

Craig (and perhaps Calvin too) is a retarded narcissist who has an over-inflated view of his skills to juggle chainsaws that are increasingly likely to come back and bite him in the ass.

[JayJuanGee]

[ edited out]

The "experiment" (future price trajectory) will show. I did not like the fact that planB concocted a second model BEFORE seeing if the prior would work out or not.
Since he replaced the first one (S2F) with a second one (S2FX) I posit that the first one is inferior and from what I saw so far, indeed, it is.
Yes, I give 80% to no 100K in 2021 and, hence, invalidation of S2F model, but not S2FX model.
Lame or not lame-we shall see, won't we?
In fact, hodling should become even stronger as there would be no high price enticement to sell, at least in 2020-2021...well, with 80% guesstimated probability.

Maybe I don't really understand the difference or if there was any significant difference in the change between S2F and S2FX... so pardon me for my ignorance on such change.

I personally just see a bunch of lines and shit, and I don't get caught upon any specific numbers whether we are going to get to $50k, or $100k or $288k or some other number on or before the end of 2021 or maybe a bit extended into 2022... I mean, why get caught up in specifics? 

Who the fuck knows specifics?  The specifics of BTC overblowing the price expectations by 3x to 5x never really changed my own personal strategy very much in 2017, so I doubt that my strategy is going to change very much in any of the scenarios because let's say that we only make it to $30k, but I had been selling small amounts of BTC all the way up, and then maybe I would be a little pissed because I could have sold more BTC, but I was holding onto most of my BTC because I was expecting somewhere between $50k and $500k...

That's on me, if I create my own disappointment, because I better damned well be prepared that BTC prices might not go to somewhere between $50k and $500k and I better have a plan that I can follow that allows me to financially and psychologically be prepared for such ultimate under performance of king daddy.

I personally think that I am prepared for underperformance or over performance... so I don't plan to scream at PlanB in either event whether he fulfills his sorcery status or not.. and really I don't take him as trying to be a sorcerer. He is merely a quant that tries to put some numbers on a graph and speculates regarding the extent to which he can speculate on the future direction based on where the numbers have already been, while of course also trying to understand the asset in which he is studying in terms of its unique nature of its supply issuance regime.

So, if BTC underperforms, maybe I end up not selling very many BTC, but if BTC overperforms and goes shooting up way before I expected (within the model or not), then maybe I am still nervous about how much BTC to sell because I have already become rich by just selling mediocre amounts, so does it change my plan very much?  Sure, maybe I will want to lock in some profits by selling a bit more, but I am still nervous about my reaction in that kind of direction too... because then what am I going to do with all of the additional fiat?  There might be a question about that, too.  So does not hurt to plan for these various scenarios in order to perhaps be a little less like deers in the headlights when it comes (in the event that it does come and whether you give it a 20% chance or some other odds that might be considered to have a questionable basis).

Yes... We will see Biodom, and I doubt that we are going to stop arguing about it or even stop saying "I told you so" from time to time, even when neither of us might have said anything.   

[virasog]

[VB1001]

Scaling BTC in three easy steps:

1. Scale ethereum
2. Trustlessy tokenize your BTC
3. Transact using the wrapped tokens on the eth2 chain

https://twitter.com/gavinandresen/status/1271561026199261185



Being locked up at home is definitely affecting a lot of people.