Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

 It predicts a price approaching infinity.
 Since there is no limit on the printing of fiat, there should be no limit to the value of a Bictoin.  I'm hodling until ∞-1  

*No no limits, we'll reach for the sky
 No valley to deep, no mountain to high
 No no limits, won't give up the fight
 We do what we want and we do it with pride
 Let me hear you say "yeah!"

 No no, no no no no, no no no no
 No no there's no limit!
 No no, no no no no, no no no no
 No no there's no limit!

*No Limit lyrics © Decos Publishing
 
 

It is certainly approaching infinity now... but after the last fraction of a BTC is mined in how ever many years the flow becomes 0 and the stock will be 20999xxx.  

Divide by zero error.

That's only ever happened with certain collectibles... Mona Lisas... Certain baseball cards, etc.  It's NEVER happened with something that is a money.

[1714170583]

1714170583

[1714170583]

1714170583

[Torque]

https://www.citadel21.com/why-the-yuppie-elite-dismiss-bitcoin

Of course, this will all change as Bitcoin’s mechanics continue to play out, making Number go Up.  In time, everyone will have to face the painful realization that their reasons for writing off Bitcoin were wrong.  Because of the dynamics at work with the yuppie class, it may take longer for them to come around to Bitcoin than with most new technologies or trends.

Great article, but I believe this writer is incorrect about this quote:

As an aside, I went to the best business school in the world and they didn’t teach us anything about that.  For what it’s worth, I don’t think that this was a knowing or malicious omission.  I think this battle was won 100-years ago, in Keynes’ day, with the self-serving support of governments weighing heavily on the outcome.  Which is to say, my professors learned from Keynesians who themselves learned from Keynesians.  The business leaders and educators of today are completely unaware that they are passing on the shoddy propaganda version of monetary theory as a result of the largely successful ideological extermination of sound monetary theory.

Au contraire, I think the business school professors know exactly what they are doing with their constant Keynesian propaganda. They know exactly what sound money is, but know the business world is now fueled on cheap debt and money printing.

“It is difficult to get a man A man refuses to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

[JayJuanGee]

But, hey, considering BTC price bottoms, you had seen that PlanB tweet from yesterday about the 200Weekly Moving average? Dude posted it, below.

>>>>>ICYMI: #bitcoin  is nicely moving away from 200 week moving average. 200WMA is currently $6400, is increasing $200 per month, and has never decreased. Best of all, BTC monthly close has never been below 200WMA.<<<<

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1296005407983403008?s=21

Can't we have some assurance that the bottom is in (or at least the bottom keeps moving up)?  So, in other words, maybe we can feel a certain level of confidence that BTC prices are not going below $6,400... so even $3k or sub $200 is even more out of the question - into the rearview mirror... and with the passage of time, we can start to feel even more confidence regarding even higher and higher bottom BTC prices... because the bottom keeps moving up with the 200 week moving average, no?

Here's the chart from that PlanB tweet:

The bottom is something that is very slippery terrain for BTC, I think it would be pretty frivolous to say that we will never go below $6400 again, because just a few months ago this is exactly what happened. Of course, the x factor should always be taken into account - and in the last case it was the declaration of a pandemic that shook the entire world market - and we know that in the case of anything like that, the price easily goes down and more than 50%.

I would still take the price of $4000 as something that BTC can go backwards, but only if something very negative happens (say a big hack of Coinbase or Binance). Yet what interests me more at the moment is the percentage of correction after the next big bull run, because if we were to reach say $100k, is it realistic to expect us to fall to $20k? The past has shown that this is possible, will it be the same this time?

Seems to me that BTC investors who focus too much on the amount of the possible BTC falls and the BTC corrections in the short term or long term, have a pretty high tendency to either fail to invest, to sell way too much too soon and to underinvest.

So, frequently, even if there have tended to be BIG ASS corrections in BTC-landia, the more prudent and sound of strategies has many times been better to just HODL through the whole thing - and of course, on a personal level, I have never really had any problem selling reasonably small amounts of BTC on the way up in order to provide some potential insurance for long and/or large BTC price corrections and also perhaps providing some psychological relief during times in which BTC price is correcting more and longer than preferred.

Of course, the concerns for ongoing and likely inevitable volatility continues to be a bit more problematic for new coiners who are attempting to establish their position, but I still think that NOT overinvesting and having at least a 4 year time horizon including following some kind of DCA'ing can help a lot of newbies through their initial investment period in which their BTC holdings may or may not be in profits - but more likely to be in profits if they continue with sound and prudent ongoing accumulation of BTC - even though nothing is really guaranteed, either, now is it?  but we have had good odds in our favor with BTC, and the future continues to look bright too, even if guys like you, Lucius, seem to be overly preoccupied with negative BTC price movements and unable or unwilling to figure out sound and reasonably prudent strategies to profit from likely ongoing positive trends that are likely to continue to come to BTC (though not guaranteed, like I already mentioned).

[xhomerx10]

 It predicts a price approaching infinity.
 Since there is no limit on the printing of fiat, there should be no limit to the value of a Bictoin.  I'm hodling until ∞-1  

*No no limits, we'll reach for the sky
 No valley to deep, no mountain to high
 No no limits, won't give up the fight
 We do what we want and we do it with pride
 Let me hear you say "yeah!"

 No no, no no no no, no no no no
 No no there's no limit!
 No no, no no no no, no no no no
 No no there's no limit!

*No Limit lyrics © Decos Publishing
 
 

It is certainly approaching infinity now... but after the last fraction of a BTC is mined in how ever many years the flow becomes 0 and the stock will be 20999xxx.  

Divide by zero error.

That's only ever happened with certain collectibles... Mona Lisas... Certain baseball cards, etc.  It's NEVER happened with something that is a money.

 Oh!  S2F.  My bad.

[JayJuanGee]

Number going down.

yep. stock futures, gold silver also. tis the end i tell u

The end of the beginning has arrived.  

Number going up...
Number going down...

Guys, you're just reading the noise.

Number has been going up since 3 January 2009.

I thought that I might have been being a wee bit too macro by saying that we had been confirmed to have had entered into a bull market since May 2019.

Now you, AlcoHoDL, are one UPpening, my wannabe backwards compatible sorcery attempts onto a longer time horizon?


I am sticking by my more short-term statement, anyhow.. because I think that there is some kind of something in considering these shorter-term cycles that we have been seeing, even if such shorter-term cycles might NOT quite be captured within 4-year fractal pattern from here on out, but still there seems to be something that is getting into a kind of material importance regarding something in the ballpark of 4-year cycles.

I will concede that in the past year or so there have been a few times that the entrance into what appears to be our bull market, had been in a kind of questionable state of affairs... a kind of pending uncertainty.. so in that regard, price direction of our lil-big daddy has frequently gone into variations of tentativeness whether we are referring to the present or the past... but mostly more clearly characterized after we are able to put on our historical seeing pieces.

Setting lowball bids at $9699

Doubt she's going to go that low, but good luck trying to hook that price.

Will be genuinely surprised if we dip below $11k USD/BTC. Kinda hoping the S2F projections pan out as predicted.

More than kinda here.

Are you feeling well, d_eddie?

You are supposed to be totally detached... at least that is what you used to say, in terms of the  BTC price could go up or it could go down or it could go sideways, bleh...

Hahahahaha

Maybe you fell off of your log cabin roof during shingle repairs?    


 

Setting lowball bids at $9699

Doubt she's going to go that low, but good luck trying to hook that price.

Will be genuinely surprised if we dip below $11k USD/BTC. Kinda hoping the S2F projections pan out as predicted.

There is CME gap at $9600 maybe we'll fill that.

Seems a bit wishful, but hey to each their own, and hopefully not too much corn is being gambled in that seemingly wishful direction that might not happen.

[d_eddie]

Are you feeling well, d_eddie?

You are supposed to be totally detached... at least that is what you used to say, in terms of the  BTC price could go up or it could go down or it could go sideways, bleh...

That was about trading. This is about hodling. Detached but hopeful, it's tricky but can be done.

Maybe you fell off of your log cabin roof during shingle repairs?   

Never fell from a cabin roof actually. Well, there was a time at sea, in a friend's boat that capsized... but that's another story.

[Last of the V8s]

Just as it looks as though it's going to die a miserable death, someone buys it all up again.

[Hueristic]

Shit is getting out of hand. Was just about to post this.

It's a chain swap as JL0 pointed out, so no new tether were effectively minted. They're just rearranging their furniture.

It's actually good(bad) for ETH.  Good as it is validating it, bad as it is going to add so much more to the centralization of it.

I seriously wonder why they don't use Liquid USDT.  SUCH a better design.

Not centralized enough.

That's actually an interesting point.

Liquid is a Federated trust model.  Very much centralized. And openly.  Ethereum is a "decentralized world computer (code is law)" that is probably about as "decentralized" as liquid, except no one is actually sure who is controlling it.

I knew you would get it.

[JayJuanGee]

Setting lowball bids at $9699

Doubt she's going to go that low, but good luck trying to hook that price.

Will be genuinely surprised if we dip below $11k USD/BTC. Kinda hoping the S2F projections pan out as predicted.

You know if it stays on that course for ANY reason it is going to get that PlanB fellow a LOT of attention in the traditional finance world which will be certainly waking up to Bitcoin.  All of this seems inevitable to me.

That said, I have always been skeptical of the model.  For no good reason though.  Really just because it fits too damn well, lol.  And ultimately it HAS to fail.  Because it predicts a price of $∞.  Because stock to flow eventually will do something the world has never actually seen before and would essentially make bitcoin PRICELESS.  Lol.

Indeed, the absence of an upper bound makes the S2F model for bitcoin a lot less sexy in the long run. I could live with the curve flattening out at, say, $1M. Could you? 

Apparently, d_eddie, you did not get the memo in regards to bitcoin being designed to pump forever?   


 

Are you feeling well, d_eddie?

You are supposed to be totally detached... at least that is what you used to say, in terms of the  BTC price could go up or it could go down or it could go sideways, bleh...

That was about trading. This is about hodling. Detached but hopeful, it's tricky but can be done.

I don't buy it for one minute.   

Maybe you fell off of your log cabin roof during shingle repairs?   

Never fell from a cabin roof actually. Well, there was a time at sea, in a friend's boat that capsized... but that's another story.

I am sorry to call you out on this, but a guy has gotta do what a guy has gotta do. 

There is actual footage of the "cabin" incident, so there is that.

[Hueristic]

Nice to see a Goldman Ballsacks Harvard guy get Indicted.

Bannon was aboard Chinese billionaire's $28M yacht off Connecticut when arrested

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bannon-was-aboard-chinese-billionaires-28m-yacht-off-connecticut-when-arrested

[Toxic2040]

           

[Phil_S]

'2x per year' lines update (vs 7-day average):

This has been my №1 chart since you've posted it first here.

Why thank you.

We may notice that the lower line corresponds to a 2x price increase per year if we round the price to 50$ at the start of 2013. That is an exponential growth 50x2^t, where t is the number of years since 2014. The remarkable thing is that for 7 years Bitcoin has kept hitting these numbers on the way down after several extra exponential growths related to the halvings. And now Bitcoin is even above the line unlike 2015 and most of 2016. This is a strong sign that the exponential growth will continue at least in the next 2-3 years. We can't be sure if 2021 will have that extra growth, but the longer we stay close to the lower line, the better. Sooner or later Bitcoin will touch and may pass through the upper line for a period.

With that regard, what software/site do you use for that chart?

I'm just coding for myself a little bit here. That's all.

I would like to make my own chart with years up to 2025.  In my opinion the lower line is very close to the real price of bitcoin, since it reflects the increasing demand (new accounts added to exchanges, etc.) vs selling pressure on exchanges.

Yeah, it make sense, but I wouldn't recommend extrapolating too far into the future. A lot of things can change between 2020 and 2025.

For the latter one can judge from the total exchange ballance, which has decreased from 2.8 mil to 2.4 mil in the last 6 months. We can easily find the line equation for each year so that for each day or month the price point is found. Something like y=(x/3)*1600+6400. For example at the end of August (x=8), the price for the bottom line is y~$10 666. We are over 10% above that, so all is good!

It's all good to far, yeah. I just hope we can finally cross that 12800 line, and not just for a few hours. Like can't we just reach 13000 and stay there for a week, at least... in 2020...

[Indymoney]

https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1296864230306709504?s=20

[Toxic2040]

the noon wall report

i am observing some commonalities between these structures..and i have also started drinking..i am a degen..forgive me     #dyor

1h


Bear, Cat and Dragon all look towards the Moon
4h


D

#stronghands

[Arriemoller]

Apparently NYC is rapidly going back to the crime levels of the 70s
Warriors come out to play, anyone?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVDWbQtbN7U&feature=emb_logo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRM2YcGpmxg

[Torque]

Apparently NYC is rapidly going back to the crime levels of the 70s
Warriors come out to play, anyone?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVDWbQtbN7U&feature=emb_logo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRM2YcGpmxg

When recessions/depressions hit small, rural towns, the people just suffer quietly...but not much else changes on the outside.

When recessions/depressions hit large metro cities, all hell breaks loose into Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome style lawless shit.

This is why they couldn't pay me enough to live in metro cities like LA, NYC, or Chicago. Fucking concrete jungles with no beauty, just filth and crime always simmering beneath the surface.

[-CryptoViking-]

Apparently NYC is rapidly going back to the crime levels of the 70s
Warriors come out to play, anyone?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVDWbQtbN7U&feature=emb_logo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRM2YcGpmxg

I was reading some stuff about it a week ago by some blogger who has proudly lived in NY for 30+ years and he acting like it is the end of the world and when he moves out NY will never again return to normal, but deteriorate completely and become a shithole till the end of the time...

It looks a bit nasty when you watch it on Youtube, but from my point of view it is far from the truth and situation is not that dramatic, plus it won't remain like that, it is temporary.

Same thing I saw with LA. There was a period when Youtube was "flooded" with videos of downtown LA like it's a beginning of new plague pandemic. It was presented like a sea of homeless people in the downtown, infestations of rats in numbers never seen and similar.

It was not that far from the truth, but it was not nearly as dramatic as presented. Prognosis was the end of LA in a few years. LA is still there and there is no plague. Lots of people moved out, mainly cost of living issues, but lots of people moved in too.

Same thing will be with NY, lots of dust over some changes that were caused by again changes

[gentlemand]

It was not that far from the truth, but it was not nearly as dramatic as presented.

Your commie pinko fag propaganda is not welcome in this thread.

Packs of leftists are LITERALLY feeding on the livers of innocent people while still inside their bodies.

[jojo69]

[Indymoney]

Apparently NYC is rapidly going back to the crime levels of the 70s
Warriors come out to play, anyone?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVDWbQtbN7U&feature=emb_logo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRM2YcGpmxg

When recessions/depressions hit small, rural towns, the people just suffer quietly...but not much else changes on the outside.

When recessions/depressions hit large metro cities, all hell breaks loose into Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome style lawless shit.

This is why they couldn't pay me enough to live in metro cities like LA, NYC, or Chicago. Fucking concrete jungles with no beauty, just filth and crime always simmering beneath the surface.

You are absolutely right its just not happening in USA its also happening in many other countries I am also facing some serious problems here like this but really cannot do any thing now just feeling to go back some small town or city where I have some better environement and better stuff really fed up with these big cities and crimes.