Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[solex]

I'm normally a perma-bull, but Satoshi waking up brings nervousness that his coins are more likely to move than before, when some people even considered that he may be dead and his coins were frozen long-term.

So, unlike the Dorian antics, the market may take a bit of a hit with the latest development. Retest of 600 possible.

[SheHadMANHands]

What it I told you 24 hours ago that in only a day's time you would be surfing over to CNN and finding headlines like this:



I mean, you can't make this shit up..

only in Bitcoin.

[JorgeStolfi]

Amusing how I can drop in on this thread and see everything from Shakespeare, to some random Japanese guy playing with trains, or even jiggling boobies and butts. It really is a one stop shop for all your cultural needs  

+∞

[lyth0s]

Should we be expecting satoshi to start posting on the forums again?

[billyjoeallen]

Should we be expecting satoshi to start posting on the forums again?

No.

[SilverandBitcoins]

Should we be expecting satoshi to start posting on the forums again?

Wow, the man, the myth and the ledgend.

[bassclef]

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ap-exclusive-man-denies-hes-bitcoin-founder

Several times during the interview with AP, Nakamoto mistakenly referred to the currency as "Bitcom." When shown the original bitcoin proposal that Newsweek linked to in its story, Nakamoto said he didn't write it, and said the email address in the document wasn't his.

lol

We desperately need a Dorian Bitcom meme.

[Nicholas-Carraway]

It's not him. http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/m/discussion?id=2003008%3ATopic%3A9402Satoshi replied.

How do we know that isn't Dorian trying to trick us?  

WOW...  You seem to be onto something Walsoraj.....  that is really really funny to NOT hear from Satoshi in that particular thread for 5 years ... and then all of a sudden for some reason Satoshi Nakamoto, if that is really Satoshi, feels such a need to comment within that particular dormant thread and to say that he is NOT Dorian... ... I thought that we had NOT heard from Satoshi since about mid-2011 or so... which would then cause me to begin to believe that maybe Satoshi is Dorian.. b/c why would the real Satoshi care enough to reply in a dormant thread concerning whatever is going on with Dorian...   In this regard, the real Satoshi should NOT give a flying fuck about whatever is going on with Dorian or that Dorian is being confused for Satoshi.. unless Dorian is the real Satoshi...

Friend,

Please read again what you just wrote, as though you were another person reading it for the first time.  Your mind is cluttered with trifles.  This has nothing to do with what brought you here.

Sincerely,
Nick

[JorgeStolfi]

a real audit must include everything, otherwise it is worthless.  If the exchange has just enough funds to cover the client balances, but also owes 100 million USD to a bank, then it is insolvent.  The clients do not have priority over the bank, they are all creditors.

I see your point but I disagree with the priority and faced with a choice between two exchanges, one offering each perspective I'll go with the one who ensures the customer deposits first and pays the bank back second. Banks accept the risks of loans as part of their business plan and have insurance for defaults but I don't.

Unfortunately, no exchange can guarantee that.

The owner of an exchange who finds himself in an insolvent situation simply cannot keep operating the business in an ethical way.   To keep it open, he will have to  stall and deceive his clients and other creditors any way he can, no matter what he promised.  MtGOX showed that clients are much easier to "manage" in this sense than a bank.

The only ethical alternative, in that situation, is to close the exchange and file for bankruptcy.  But then the owner loses control of who gets paid first; indeed, the main goal of the bankruptcy process is to ensure that all creditors are treated fairly.  (Some creditors may have priority by law.  If I understood correctly, in Japan employee salaries and benefits are paid first.  I don't recall any such fine distinctions as client vs bank.)

[podyx]

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ap-exclusive-man-denies-hes-bitcoin-founder

Several times during the interview with AP, Nakamoto mistakenly referred to the currency as "Bitcom." When shown the original bitcoin proposal that Newsweek linked to in its story, Nakamoto said he didn't write it, and said the email address in the document wasn't his.

lol

We desperately need a Dorian Bitcom meme.

not the right meme but it looks like him :p

[billyjoeallen]

a real audit must include everything, otherwise it is worthless.  If the exchange has just enough funds to cover the client balances, but also owes 100 million USD to a bank, then it is insolvent.  The clients do not have priority over the bank, they are all creditors.

I see your point but I disagree with the priority and faced with a choice between two exchanges, one offering each perspective I'll go with the one who ensures the customer deposits first and pays the bank back second. Banks accept the risks of loans as part of their business plan and have insurance for defaults but I don't.

Unfortunately, no exchange can guarantee that.

The owner of an exchange who finds himself in an insolvent situation simply cannot keep operating the business in an ethical way.   To keep it open, he will have to  stall and deceive his clients and other creditors any way he can, no matter what he promised.  MtGOX showed that clients are much easier to "manage" in this sense than a bank.

The only ethical alternative, in that situation, is to close the exchange and file for bankruptcy.  But then the owner loses control of who gets paid first; indeed, the main goal of the bankruptcy process is to ensure that all creditors are treated fairly.  (Some creditors may have priority by law.  If I understood correctly, in Japan employee salaries and benefits are paid first.  I don't recall any such fine distinctions as client vs bank.)

If an exchange is holding my bitcoins, it owes me bitcoins. If a kennel is holding my dog, it does not owe me the monetary equivalent of my dog. If my dog is lost, they must find it. Proof of solvency is so easily achievable than any exchange that doesn't provide it should be suspect. This should be a MINIMUM security precaution. 

[KeyserSoze]

We desperately need a Dorian Bitcom meme.

[podyx]

^ lol

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !   Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !
  EXCHANGE   !  02/27 !  02/28 !  03/01 ! 03/02 !  03/03 !  03/04 !  03/05 !  03/06 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp   |  17.05 |  22.63 |  14.30 |  6.44 |  64.91 |  28.03 |  12.72 |  10.40 | USD
  BTC-e      |  14.60 |  12.74 |   9.55 |  4.58 |  41.71 |  28.83 |  11.19 |   5.69 | USD,EUR,RUR
  BitFinEx   |  12.04 |  15.29 |   8.62 |  3.13 |  50.92 |  25.03 |   8.38 |   7.06 | USD
  Kraken     |   0.89 |   1.34 |   0.39 |  0.32 |   2.82 |   1.81 |   0.87 |   0.71 | EUR
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.50 |   0.70 |   0.31 |  0.32 |   1.34 |   1.02 |   0.40 |   0.34 | EUR
  CaVirtEx   |   0.31 |   0.33 |   0.15 |  0.19 |   0.55 |   0.33 |   0.22 |   0.22 | CAD
  CampBX     |   0.05 |   0.07 |   0.08 |  0.07 |   0.28 |   0.14 |   0.04 |   0.03 | USD

  SUBTOTAL   |  45.44 |  53.10 |  33.40 | 15.05 | 162.53 |  85.19 |  33.82 |  24.45 |

  Huobi      | 123.38 | 122.00 | 104.12 | 40.64 | 253.71 | 268.47 | 196.00 |  92.40 | CNY
  OKCoin     |  83.60 | 129.17 |  73.29 | 34.99 | 126.48 | 137.35 | 286.05 | 139.37 | CNY
  BTC-China  |   6.71 |   7.17 |   5.02 |  2.64 |  16.59 |  15.36 |   8.04 |   5.58 | CNY
  Bter       |   0.31 |   0.29 |   0.30 |  0.24 |   0.67 |   0.64 |   0.31 |   0.32 | CNY

  SUBTOTAL   | 214.00 | 258.63 | 182.73 | 78.51 | 397.45 | 421.82 | 490.40 | 237.67 |

  TOTAL      | 259.44 | 311.73 | 216.13 | 93.56 | 559.98 | 507.01 | 524.22 | 262.12 |


All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

[JorgeStolfi]

Total trade volume today (Thu Mar/06 00:00--23:59 UTC), in the exchanges that I monitor, was only ~262 kBTC.  That is almost exactly half of yesterday's, but close to that of last Thursday Feb/27.

Volume in the Chinese exchanges decreased  52% (from 490 to 238 kBTC). The loss was evenly distributed among Huobi and OKCoin, so that OKCoin retained the advantage that it suddenly won yesterday -- namely 59% of the Chinese volume, against Huobi's 39%.  BTC-China had only 2.3% of that volume (5.6 kBTC).

Volume outside China decreased only 28% (from 34 to 24 kBTC).  Bitstamp recovered the lead with 10.4 kBTC, followed by Bitfinex with 7.1 and BTC-e with 5.7. 

China´s slice of the total trade volume decreased slightly, from yesterday's 94% to 91%.

[JayJuanGee]

Let me get this straight.  You are obtaining your probabilities by detecting a pattern of behavior of the bots?  or how else would you be able to get percentages that change daily?    So maybe for example approximately on average every 4 days the bots break up or down... and the longer they go without breaking out, the more the likelihood for breaking out?  

[JayJuanGee]

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ap-exclusive-man-denies-hes-bitcoin-founder

Several times during the interview with AP, Nakamoto mistakenly referred to the currency as "Bitcom." When shown the original bitcoin proposal that Newsweek linked to in its story, Nakamoto said he didn't write it, and said the email address in the document wasn't his.

I kind of enjoy when people refer to it as bitcorn... makes me chuckle on the inside.

[jojo69]

I think PayPal just broke for a bunch of users...locked us out



hard to think of a more bullish bullishness

[Richy_T]

We desperately need a Dorian Bitcom meme.

[HairyMaclairy]

Nice one