Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

$TTTT9k


“Bitcoin. Will. Go. Higher. Than. You. Think.”


https://twitter.com/dennis_porter_/status/1444426345388265476?s=21

I will admit that this image presents a very interesting way of overviewing the at-issue values in front of us, and part of the calculation concern would be that value is being stored in asset classes that are very inefficient as storage of value and even inferior in terms of their storage of value attributes.  
Even if bitcoin were to such a decent amount of the value out of several of those other less efficient/inferior storage of value for the reasons already mentioned, most of them would likely still hold some value in terms of their utility value and/or still retain value because people might conclude (perhaps wrongly) that they are better storages of value than king daddy.  

So perhaps bitcoin's addressable market would be some kind of fraction of the total value of some of those other assets (or some fraction of all of them combined.. I am not sure what that would be, but it would neither be 100% nor zero.. and some portion of them.. including that it probably has already begun to absorb some of the value - even though small amounts since bitcoin still remains less than $1 trillion and also in the ballpark of .05% of the value of all of them combined ..

I created the below explanatory table as a means to perhaps help me to better attempt to illustrate the point that I am attempting to make through words.. and a table might be better to also allow others to tweak the numbers where they might find better ways of figuring out some estimations of the valuations matter.

Type                                 Current value($Trillions)     multiple of inefficiencies                  Value into BTC ($Trillions)
Derivatives                             $900.000                                 50%                                                  $450.000
Real Estate                             $220.000                                 60%                                                    $132.000
Stocks                                     $90.000                                 50%                                                    $45.000
Bonds                                     $130.000                                60%                                                    $78.000
currencies                              $120.000                                 90%                                                    $108.000
gold                                       $11.000                                 75%                                                    $8.250
silver                                     $1.200                                    75%                                                    $0.900
crypto                                     $1.000                                   50%                                                    $0.500

Total                                     $1,473.200                                                                                          $822.650



In essence, I am just attempting a quickie SOMA valuation of the inefficiencies, so feel free to tweak my valuations - including my multiples of what I had ballpark considered the inefficiencies to potentially be...

Even with my attempt at a ballpark figure, once all these valuation matters play themselves out and value ends up flowing into BTC (over the years to come based on those above approximations), we still end up getting bitcoin to be future valued around 822x of today's prices..

... good approach, we can tweak the asset class efficiencies and come up with a total addressable market in 2021 dollars

... your numbers put that around $ 40 mill, I'm thinking of an order of magnitude O(m) range, $5-50mill?

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[El duderino_]

[fr4nkthetank]

... note, this overstates the trend also because the satellite temperature record begins in the late 1970s, right at the end of a strong cooling spell, strong enough for institutional science to be fear-mongering about the earth imminently entering an ice-age, and yes institutional science was claiming that cooling was man made back then in 1970 too.

... institutional scientists are like politicians because they are mostly poor and will say whatever you pay them to say, and they are mostly paid by governments

... the temperature has hardly gone up for over 40 years, it's a huge hoax to fleece the idiots

... the earth has some nations with terrible real pollution problems though, the climate change mass hysteria will not fix any of that, probably make it worse by increasing economic waste, resources misallocations, destitution and distracting energies to a none existent problem

are you people retarded or something.  We literally went to fucking ANTARTICA, of all places, and DRILLED BABY DRILLED ice cores.  Those ice cores have air bubbles in them, we analyzed the air bubbles and found that we are fucked.

Maybe run your gasoline car in the garage, all doors closed and see what happens to the atmosphere ?  tip :  it changes when you add gases to it.

[toknormal]

Maybe run your gasoline car in the garage, all doors closed and see what happens to the atmosphere ?  tip :  it changes when you add gases to it.

See here for how the climate works. Tip: to understand the "greenhouse effect" it helps to understand how a greenhouse works. The heat is trapped by the roof preventing the air from floating away, not some voodoo "radiative asymmetry". On a planet, gravity provides that service, not Co2.

https://gvigurs.wordpress.com/2019/04/28/the-emperors-new-climate/

Note, in particular Page 14 of that document. That's the reason why a trace gas that doesn't even form half of one percent of the atmosphere doesn't constitute some kind of fairy tale "thermal non-return valve" where heat can go in one direction and not the other, defying all known laws of thermodynamics.

If it did we would have cooked to a cinder eons ago.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Leafs falling from tree’s.
Corn decouples from China.
Shocktober cruising.

[Biodom]

..it helps to understand how a greenhouse works. The heat is trapped by the roof preventing the air from floating away...

interesting...can we just focus on bitcoin and not on "new physics"? my greenhouse got no roof, just sides...does it count?

Btw, please explain the fact that when the Sun was radiating 30% less the temperature on Earth surface was roughly the same, if not a bit higher billions of years ago.
If it was not high CO2 that was causing this (balmy weather despite much less sun radiation) back then, then what?

[marcus_of_augustus]

... note, this overstates the trend also because the satellite temperature record begins in the late 1970s, right at the end of a strong cooling spell, strong enough for institutional science to be fear-mongering about the earth imminently entering an ice-age, and yes institutional science was claiming that cooling was man made back then in 1970 too.

... institutional scientists are like politicians because they are mostly poor and will say whatever you pay them to say, and they are mostly paid by governments

... the temperature has hardly gone up for over 40 years, it's a huge hoax to fleece the idiots

... the earth has some nations with terrible real pollution problems though, the climate change mass hysteria will not fix any of that, probably make it worse by increasing economic waste, resources misallocations, destitution and distracting energies to a none existent problem

are you people retarded or something.  We literally went to fucking ANTARTICA, of all places, and DRILLED BABY DRILLED ice cores.  Those ice cores have air bubbles in them, we analyzed the air bubbles and found that we are fucked.

Maybe run your gasoline car in the garage, all doors closed and see what happens to the atmosphere ?  tip :  it changes when you add gases to it.

... pretty sure Greta, bless her soul, truly is retarded but believe whoever you like, name-calling wont change a thing

... the ice-core data definitively showed that CO2 rises trailed global warming periods by thousands of years so basic causality means could not have been the cause of previous warm epochs, the whole scam should have ended then but you know .... when liars are caught in a lie, they always double-down with a bigger lie

... very much the same thing is happening with centralised fiat banking, public health- Big Pharma complex and global socialist order, it's collapsing around them and all they have is bigger lies, more jackboots, less freedom and stronger propaganda initiatives

[Biodom]

corn still in slumber
tired of waiting for the pump
need some moolah soon

#haiku

[Richy_T]

When I saw a post from Ben (time is on our side Ben) that he sells 25 copies of his chess NFT I realized NFTs are scam. It made sense when there was only one unique NFT available but now if they start selling copies, that's a scam. That's like money printing. Or imagine there would be 25 copies of Mona Lisa and they keep printing more as they need money.

[toknormal]

Btw, please explain the fact that when the Sun was radiating 30% less the temperature on Earth surface was roughly the same, if not a bit higher billions of years ago.
If it was not high CO2 that was causing this (balmy weather despite much less sun radiation) back then, then what?

Temperature is not heat. That's another piece of hand-waving lunacy that's used to keep this nonsense alive. Mars atmosphere is 95% Co2. (Reflect on that for a moment - earth is 0.04% and Mars is 95% Co2). Yet its surface can lose 100 degrees of temperature overnight without a sweat. That's because its atmosphere is thin and so has little heat capacity compared to a thick one.

Temperature is a measure of a particular mass's thermal response to heating. It's not a direct measure of heat. The idea that you can measure the "temperature" of a planet by averaging out the values of a bunch of thermometers (that are not the same thermometers that were there 100 years ago) is bonkers. You'd be hard pushed to get a meaningful measurement from a big pot of boiling water to within a half a degree, never mind a planet.

[Biodom]

You guys might disagree, but this cycle is quite underwhelming (in bitcoin) despite lots and lots of attention.
We are just X2.4 the prior ATH despite being quite deep into the current cycle.
BTC appreciated at just 26% APY since the last ATH (I used 3.833 years since the last ATH).
It's great, but not phenomenal.
Looking forward to a huge jump that has got to be coming.

[Biodom]

Btw, please explain the fact that when the Sun was radiating 30% less the temperature on Earth surface was roughly the same, if not a bit higher billions of years ago.
If it was not high CO2 that was causing this (balmy weather despite much less sun radiation) back then, then what?

Temperature is not heat. That's another piece of hand-waving lunacy that's used to keep this nonsense alive. Mars atmosphere is 95% Co2. (Reflect on that for a moment - earth is 0.04% and Mars is 95% Co2). Yet its surface can lose 100 degrees of temperature overnight without a sweat. That's because its atmosphere is thin and so has little heat capacity compared to a thick one.

Temperature is a measure of a particular mass's thermal response to heating. It's not a direct measure of heat. The idea that you can measure the "temperature" of a planet by averaging out the values of a bunch of thermometers (that are not the same thermometers that were there 100 years ago) is bonkers. You'd be hard pushed to get a meaningful measurement from a big pot of boiling water to within a half a degree, never mind a planet.

you did not answer the question: why several billion years ago with Sun radiation at 30% less, the temperature on the surface was roughly the same?

[toknormal]

you did not answer the question: why several billion years ago with Sun radiation at 30% less, the temperature on the surface was roughly the same?

I've got no idea. But it wasn't because of Co2 causing some mystical "radiative asymmetry". As I explained above, temperature is not heat. You can have high temperatures with low heat flux and low temperatures with high flux depending on various things. For example the albedo might have been different back then.

[eddie13]

Can’t believe so many of you buy the CO2 theory nonsense..

Bitcoin is not for everyone..
It’s only for people who are smart enough to start using it, and then for the subset of those who are smart enough to not lose them in the myriad of different ways possible to lose your coins from just losing your keys to being scammed or leaving them in another’s custody to be scammed..
Not to mention those smart enough to figure out how to make some coin, or smart enough to have extra funds for investment to put into coin, and then smart enough to delay gratitude not to sell out..
If they were smart enough to take their time to understand it well enough to believe in it.. Smart enough to understand enough about it in the first place..

Crypto is not even close to “for everyone”..

Equal opportunity? Yes..
Equal outcome? Ha ha ha.. No..

It is not so much the c02 concept

Take a pleasant place say one of the Hawaiian Islands cut down everything and plant pineapples and nothing else.

What will happen? you will fuck that Island up.

If you do not think that is happening around the world as I type and that it is sunspot activity fine.

Then save the coil oil and gas for the next ice age and jack up the solar while the sunspots heat up.  

The if you are correct and an ice age comes in 30 years you have the coal ,oil ,gas saved up. Especially the coal as the miners can mine and stack it for the ice age.

So if co2 is real you win

and if sunspot followed by cool down is right you win

Never in earths history has the climate/temperature just stayed the same.. It’s most likely that earth is just doing it’s thing as usual and we are powerless to stop it or change it..

We should NOT worry about and absolutely not let the fucking governments do anything whatsoever because of it..

It’s just an authoritarians excuse to control more shit and shuffle more money into the hands of their friends, not to mention bother excuse to keep the little guy down by increasing the cost of our energy and making us spend tons of money on CO2 reduction bullshit (that gets funneled to their friends pockets)...

I know right, caveman had those smog cities and toxic lakes in inner Mongolia back in the day too! What a nice place for a fishing trip, or perhaps a family vacation for kids to go swimming in the water? If you know for a fact that we shouldn't worry about it now, then care to share how bad should the man-made smog get before we should start getting worried? Throw some ppms or cancer rates or something at which you wouldn't advice your kids to play outside?


Cheap energy that you can actually taste. Like everywhere, just by breathing.
Think those Russians found the answer to the long life longevity, burn baby burn. Fuck the government for telling me what color my snow should be

Ha ha straw man..
That is pollution/contamination..

Not global warming..

BTW fixing shit like that is exactly what I do for a living, currently remediating a hazardous waste disposal site that was wiped out by a hurricane..

Nice try..

... note, this overstates the trend also because the satellite temperature record begins in the late 1970s, right at the end of a strong cooling spell, strong enough for institutional science to be fear-mongering about the earth imminently entering an ice-age, and yes institutional science was claiming that cooling was man made back then in 1970 too.

... institutional scientists are like politicians because they are mostly poor and will say whatever you pay them to say, and they are mostly paid by governments

... the temperature has hardly gone up for over 40 years, it's a huge hoax to fleece the idiots

... the earth has some nations with terrible real pollution problems though, the climate change mass hysteria will not fix any of that, probably make it worse by increasing economic waste, resources misallocations, destitution and distracting energies to a none existent problem

Last paragraph..
Exactly..


Water vapor is a much more abundant and much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 could ever hope to think about being..
We better Saran Wrap the oceans so they stop evaporating..

[marcus_of_augustus]

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/south-pole-posts-most-severe-cold-season-on-record-an-anomaly-in-a-warming-world/

South Pole posts most severe cold season on record

The chill was exceptional, even for the coldest location on the planet.

The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station between April and September, a frigid minus-78 degrees (minus-61 Celsius), was the coldest on record, dating back to 1957. This was 4.5 degrees lower than the most recent 30-year average.

... this just does NOT happen in climate heading towards "catastrophic man-made global warming"

... recall all the propaganda about how "the poles are the temperature gauge for the planet", "the poles are melting", "our kids will never know what snow looks like" ??

... good chance we're heading for 30-40 years of cooling planet, maybe even severe in some places if the grand solar minimum plays out as per the 1700s maunder solar minimum little ice age, which is quite well-documented, unlike many other climate half-truths or outright fictions that get thrown around from dubious data and interpretations

https://electroverse.net/worlds-lowest-oct-temp-under-threat-polar-fronts-to-sweep-australia-s-america-s-africa-cold-records-fall-in-alaska-russia/

On the opening day of October, the Russian Base of Vostok logged an astonishing minimum temperature of -79.4C (-110.9F) — this reading is just 0.6C above the world’s lowest temperature ever recorded in the month of October (set at the former Plateau Station, also in Antarctica).

[El duderino_]

Squid game

Addicted

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DaRude]

Pretty sure everyone (everyone sane?) will agree that we (humans) already managed to fuck up environment at the city levels in many locations around the globe (possibly country levels, fancy a health retreat in Bangladesh?). Yet even the thought, that combined effect of all those fucked up cities could have some not so positive effects on a global scale, is completely incomprehensible and alien to them.

[El duderino_]

A bed time stifler moment

HODLsleep can start !