Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/south-pole-posts-most-severe-cold-season-on-record-an-anomaly-in-a-warming-world/

South Pole posts most severe cold season on record

The chill was exceptional, even for the coldest location on the planet.

The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station between April and September, a frigid minus-78 degrees (minus-61 Celsius), was the coldest on record, dating back to 1957. This was 4.5 degrees lower than the most recent 30-year average.

... this just does NOT happen in climate heading towards "catastrophic man-made global warming"

... recall all the propaganda about how "the poles are the temperature gauge for the planet", "the poles are melting", "our kids will never know what snow looks like" ??

... good chance we're heading for 30-40 years of cooling planet, maybe even severe in some places if the grand solar minimum plays out as per the 1700s maunder solar minimum little ice age, which is quite well-documented, unlike many other climate half-truths or outright fictions that get thrown around from dubious data and interpretations

https://electroverse.net/worlds-lowest-oct-temp-under-threat-polar-fronts-to-sweep-australia-s-america-s-africa-cold-records-fall-in-alaska-russia/

On the opening day of October, the Russian Base of Vostok logged an astonishing minimum temperature of -79.4C (-110.9F) — this reading is just 0.6C above the world’s lowest temperature ever recorded in the month of October (set at the former Plateau Station, also in Antarctica).

[El duderino_]

Squid game

Addicted

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DaRude]

Pretty sure everyone (everyone sane?) will agree that we (humans) already managed to fuck up environment at the city levels in many locations around the globe (possibly country levels, fancy a health retreat in Bangladesh?). Yet even the thought, that combined effect of all those fucked up cities could have some not so positive effects on a global scale, is completely incomprehensible and alien to them.

[El duderino_]

A bed time stifler moment

HODLsleep can start !

[marcus_of_augustus]

Pretty sure everyone (everyone sane?)

... because only insane people could think that the government got it wrong, again and again and again?

... typical ad-hominem in the question tactic, "only sane people ...." you only resort to that kind of rhetoric because your arguments are weak or wrong and not supported by data

[DaRude]

Pretty sure everyone (everyone sane?)

... because only insane people could think that the government got it wrong, again and again and again?

... typical ad-hominem in the question tactic, "only sane people ...." you only resort to that kind of rhetoric because your arguments are weak or wrong and not supported by data

Typical straw man, about the govermentz. Yeah i stand by it, at this stage it takes someone reallllly "special" to deny effects of pollution in some of the most polluted cities in India and China. Then i did a "slippery slope" argument, *hint, that's the one that's easiest to attack

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sirazimuth]

m of a on the wob....



m of a irl...

[BobLawblaw]

This is very nice.

I like it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

No four bagger for you buddy.

[JayJuanGee]

Type                                 Current value($Trillions)     multiple of inefficiencies                  Value into BTC ($Trillions)
Derivatives                             $900.000                                 50%                                                  $450.000
Real Estate                             $220.000                                 60%                                                    $132.000
Stocks                                     $90.000                                 50%                                                    $45.000
Bonds                                     $130.000                                60%                                                    $78.000
currencies                              $120.000                                 90%                                                    $108.000
gold                                       $11.000                                 75%                                                    $8.250
silver                                     $1.200                                    75%                                                    $0.900
crypto                                     $1.000                                   50%                                                    $0.500

Total                                     $1,473.200                                                                                          $822.650

... good approach, we can tweak the asset class efficiencies and come up with a total addressable market in 2021 dollars

Be my guest...   I thought that I was attempting to use 2021 dollars...

... your numbers put that around $ 40 mill, I'm thinking of an order of magnitude O(m) range, $5-50mill?

I thought that my total was $822.65 trillion-ish... .. not sure where you are getting those $40 million or $5-50 million numbers.

I would love to see someone change some of the assumptions and then show where my numbers might be inadequate in one way or another - because I feel that my numbers are just nearly pure off the top of my head SOMA (if that's possible?) numbers in the sense that I just picked the first numbers that randomly passed through my head.. because I am not even sure if I understand the ramifications of each of the asset categories  in terms of how much they are being overvalued by having a kind of storage of value function.. and probably it becomes quite difficult to measure, too because it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy that a house that used to be worth $220k all of a sudden becomes valued a close to a $1million.. merely because everyone else is buying houses because they are afraid to keep money in cash.. and they just hardly have any clue where to put it.. so they just put it into real estate - like everyone else is doing.

[Richy_T]

Pretty sure everyone (everyone sane?) will agree that we (humans) already managed to fuck up environment at the city levels in many locations around the globe (possibly country levels, fancy a health retreat in Bangladesh?). Yet even the thought, that combined effect of all those fucked up cities could have some not so positive effects on a global scale, is completely incomprehensible and alien to them.

Dude, I don't want to get in the middle of this discussion but you need to keep straight the differences between global and local and warming and pollution.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

You guys might disagree, but this cycle is quite underwhelming (in bitcoin) despite lots and lots of attention.
We are just X2.4 the prior ATH despite being quite deep into the current cycle.

Fair enough.

What's the rush?

You trying to suggest that bitcoin is supposed to be on a kind of schedule?

BTC appreciated at just 26% APY since the last ATH (I used 3.833 years since the last ATH).
It's great, but not phenomenal.

Is that the way you choose to measure CAGR?

Seems a wee bit lacking in scientificness.

JStolfi used to measure bitcoin's performance from the November/December 2013 ATH and then say that we are "underperforming."   Look where that persistent dumbass analysis got him.

Looking forward to a huge jump that has got to be coming.

I am glad that you remain optimistic.  That does put you in a somewhat better place than JStolfi who even refused to buy bitcoin.. so, at least, you have not refused to buy bitcoin, as far as I can determine.. You just decided to NOT buy more, and just stick with your about 20 BTC from your 2015-ish purchases. .. which is fair enough.. fair enough

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Mbitr]

Squid game

Addicted

Just seen the first episode 

Gonna enjoy this series