Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins.  

"The vast majority of my stash" could catch on as a very apt way of going forward with some of these descriptive matters.

Ok... on a personal level, you may well know that when I refer to "the vast majority of my own personal stash," recently, I had admitting to having more than 0.63 BTC, so one might speculate that the "vast majority of my stash" would be more than 75%.. which would be more than 0.4725 BTC, and maybe we can even refer to that as being more than half of a BTC...

 I can already see that our days are likely to be numbered in terms of even these kinds of references to whole BTC.. because holy shit, if I am saying the vast majority of my BTC, you may well identify my stash size to be of a size that is becoming less and less attainable by normies to even get to that quantity of BTC... if you are starting out, do you have $25k.. Is it beyond your budget?  Yeah for sure.  You have to start with getting up to $5k invested and then $10k invested and then how many BTC does that get you, and in the future.. where might we be going with our references?

Are we (royal of course) going to be able to hang onto a sufficient quantity of those BTC (or should I start saying vast majority of my stash happens to be more than 50 million satoshis?)..  Am I telling you too much?

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins. As for my own stash, I'd just say "most of my stash", somehow it sounds more fitting to its size.

 

I was aware that i have to describe it in a way which should not present any clues about the absolute size.
And it seems to work  

Can I take it back?  .. yeah.. having more than 0.63 BTC is 3x the size that many newbies can start to accumulate.. and a year or two or 4 or 10 am I still going to have it?

Remember  a couple of years ago.. even the dude had captured live footage of a bunch of his drama, with various angles on the boat and all of that.. I mean, it's not implausible that shit happens... and it does happen.. does not even take a big screw up just a bit of gambling or some weak moments and poof.

On the "fish" scale i'm pretty low. But it's "better than getting a brick to the head", as some would say in my culture, means it could always be worse
  

So the stash is more like a stashy  

I am not sure whether the descriptor "stashy" is going to catch on.. to me, it comes off a bit on the side of evasive... which may work out ok for some peeps.... but you are not likely to find me using that one.. unless I first see it a lot then maybe after a while of repetition for me it will start to sound better than it currently does..

[savetherainforest]

It sucks that anti-vaxxers's choice is effecting (sic) everyone around them and not just themselves

Dude. Holy fucking shit... Stahp. Plz.

He is funny.

I will chant with my huligan brothers in front of his house: "VAXX IST DEATH!... VAXX IST PLAGUE!!! ... VAXX IST NAZZI EMBODIMENT !!!" ... W000000000000!!! CHUG! CHUG! CHUG! CHUG! ON YOUR VAXX INOCULATED SPERM !!! CHUGGGGGG!!!

[philipma1957]

[edited out]

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins.  

"The vast majority of my stash" could catch on as a very apt way of going forward with some of these descriptive matters.

Ok... on a personal level, you may well know that when I refer to "the vast majority of my own personal stash," recently, I had admitting to having more than 0.63 BTC, so one might speculate that the "vast majority of my stash" would be more than 75%.. which would be more than 0.4725 BTC, and maybe we can even refer to that as being more than half of a BTC...

 I can already see that our days are likely to be numbered in terms of even these kinds of references to whole BTC.. because holy shit, if I am saying the vast majority of my BTC, you may well identify my stash size to be of a size that is becoming less and less attainable by normies to even get to that quantity of BTC... if you are starting out, do you have $25k.. Is it beyond your budget?  Yeah for sure.  You have to start with getting up to $5k invested and then $10k invested and then how many BTC does that get you, and in the future.. where might we be going with our references?

Are we (royal of course) going to be able to hang onto a sufficient quantity of those BTC (or should I start saying vast majority of my stash happens to be more than 50 million satoshis?)..  Am I telling you too much?

BTW, I really like the ring of your phrase: "the vast majority of my stash"... Makes it sound like hundreds or thousands of coins. As for my own stash, I'd just say "most of my stash", somehow it sounds more fitting to its size.

 

I was aware that i have to describe it in a way which should not present any clues about the absolute size.
And it seems to work  

Can I take it back?  .. yeah.. having more than 0.63 BTC is 3x the size that many newbies can start to accumulate.. and a year or two or 4 or 10 am I still going to have it?

Remember  a couple of years ago.. even the dude had captured live footage of a bunch of his drama, with various angles on the boat and all of that.. I mean, it's not implausible that shit happens... and it does happen.. does not even take a big screw up just a bit of gambling or some weak moments and poof.

On the "fish" scale i'm pretty low. But it's "better than getting a brick to the head", as some would say in my culture, means it could always be worse
  

So the stash is more like a stashy  

I am not sure whether the descriptor "stashy" is going to catch on.. to me, it comes off a bit on the side of evasive... which may work out ok for some peeps.... but you are not likely to find me using that one.. unless I first see it a lot then maybe after a while of repetition for me it will start to sound better than it currently does..

It could become too much info If a satoshi become 10 cents you claim to having more than 5 million in fiat.
 
I can say I have under 100,000 usd in GPUS and Asics and Coins. Which is safer than saying how many pieces of gear and exactly how much coin I have.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Talking about GPUs..I wanted to build a new PC..got everything, apart from the screwy GPU, which is nowhere to be found for a "normal" price.
There is no point of paying triple price, because for that price you can almost get the whole PC with the "offending" 3080 in it..but I just wanted the card. No can do, for more than a year already.

[Biodom]

I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

This scenario looks pretty realistic to me. Triple top is something we haven't witnessed before but why not? I mean BTC can't be that predictable to follow the same pattern over and over again. Back in October one of my nocoiner friends mentioned something about taking a loan and buying BTC as it's bound to skyrocket in December. Easy-peasy, piece of cake, no-brainer. That's when I understood moonshot is not going to happen most probably.  

Sorry, there are no triple tops or triple bottoms...with >90% probability.

Well I'm not a trader or a TA person I'm not sure if it exists or not (well it does in theory but I'm not sure about RL) I just used this term to make it clear there's going to be a third top (wave) going considerably higher than 2 previous ones. If you're good at TA you can come up with a correct term for that.  

It is the correct term, but unicorn is also a correct term. I was simply saying that it almost never happens.
IMHO, people are still counting on the swoosh back up in bitcoin, but we might have a flat before this.

BTW, TA may rarely predict something, it is almost always post factum.
However, the same could be said about the fundamental analysis, which often misses something "fundamental' and the results are skewed.
Tons of people were "fundamentally" bearish on Amazon from 2000 to 2015, but they were wrong because market anticipated large current earnings and almost unshakable market position of that company. Market was using advanced algebra when some or even most analysts were following simple arithmetic.

[suchmoon]

Talking about GPUs..I wanted to build a new PC..got everything, apart from the screwy GPU, which is nowhere to be found for a "normal" price.
There is no point of paying triple price, because for that price you can almost get the whole PC with the "offending" 3080 in it..but I just wanted the card. No can do, for more than a year already.

Used GTX 1080 for $400-500 (still overpriced but "only" by 100% or so) plays all games that I can throw at it. The whole GPU shitshow was already going off the rails before this "shortage" and I refuse to participate in it. (other than repairing blown mosfets and reselling because that's just business)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

Talking about GPUs..I wanted to build a new PC..got everything, apart from the screwy GPU, which is nowhere to be found for a "normal" price.
There is no point of paying triple price, because for that price you can almost get the whole PC with the "offending" 3080 in it..but I just wanted the card. No can do, for more than a year already.

Used GTX 1080 for $400-500 (still overpriced but "only" by 100% or so) plays all games that I can throw at it. The whole GPU shitshow was already going off the rails before this "shortage" and I refuse to participate in it. (other than repairing blown mosfets and reselling because that's just business)

I sold 2 old RX-580's for $500 apiece a couple months ago just because its retarded.

[cAPSLOCK]

It seems many people are fairly bearish right now.

I pulled a block of coins I had loaded up on the exchange back into my own custody the other day.

No freaking way I'm selling in this messy volatility.

Doing whatever small things I can do to help contribute to supply shock on the exchanges.

As much as Trace Meyer turned out to be a douchebag with his whole "Buy my shitcoin on TradeOgre" misstep the whole "Proof of keys" idea was a really good one.

It suffered from two issues.

1.  It had a stupid name.  The name only appealed to people who already held all their own coins.
2.  It ignores human nature.  There are several reasons why humans don't want to hold their own keys... and they really never will.

But the idea was genius.  If we all held or own coins it would absolutely change the reality of the markets instantly.  But it's akin to going into that kind of heroin treatment where they put you in a coma and shoot you chock full of opioid antagonists.  It's the express lane to getting off the teat.  But you still have to want it to do it.

But people will do Bitcoin the way they have always done money.  They will have a third party look over their horde.

Anyway, I thank you for taking your coins off.  I know you generally hold your coins, but every little bit helps!

(Also, seriously...  what Meyer just full of it?  He always talked about buying BTC at $0.25.  His whole scam reeked of him needing to bolster his stack... I wonder if he was really mostly talk.) 

[Richy_T]

Yes, some people will get worked up about the guy's choice to shave off 9 BTC all at once, maybe even yours truly, because I am a bit concerned about shaving off 25% all at once, but I would not have been so much concerned about shaving off 5% here and 5% there and maybe even getting to the same result of shaving off 9 BTC at some point (25%).

Quality of life. Anyone who hasn't fully owned their own house (property taxes notwithstanding), it's quite nice. Fancy cars though? I would also consider waiting for a bit higher BTC prices before buying a house that much but then again, every time I look at house prices, they are higher than what I'm expecting.

[Richy_T]

Cerner's financials say that their Total Debt to Equity ratio (FY) (%) = 29.81.

Which means that out of that $28.3B equity valuation, they have $8.3B in total debt outstanding. If you believe the valuation estimate, that's still nearly a third of the company that is all debt! And over the past 4 years, their accumulating debt had been growing at a much faster rates than their profits. Which means they were on track to eventually going belly up.

It's possible Oracle wants key technologies or even employees. I agree that there's way too much money sloshing around though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

I sold 2 old RX-580's for $500 apiece a couple months ago just because its retarded.

RX580 is currently my best card. It's in my VR rig which I have taken to playing Cyberpunk on as my main gaming PC just wasn't up to it (the 580 is a bit borderline TBH).

[philipma1957]

Yes, some people will get worked up about the guy's choice to shave off 9 BTC all at once, maybe even yours truly, because I am a bit concerned about shaving off 25% all at once, but I would not have been so much concerned about shaving off 5% here and 5% there and maybe even getting to the same result of shaving off 9 BTC at some point (25%).

Quality of life. Anyone who hasn't fully owned their own house (property taxes notwithstanding), it's quite nice. Fancy cars though? I would also consider waiting for a bit higher prices but then again, every time I look at house prices, they are higher than what I'm expecting.

Took me many years to be debt free. It is a nice thing.

[somac.]

Stuck at 47k again it seems.

[HI-TEC99]

Stuck at 47k again it seems.

Less than three years ago we were stuck at 4.7k for a while.

In a few years we might be pissed that it's stuck at 470k.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Stuck at 47k again it seems.

Less than three years ago we were stuck at 4.7k for a while.

In a few years we might be pissed that it's stuck at 470k.

You bet, we'll be pissed.

[HI-TEC99]

Stuck at 47k again it seems.

Less than three years ago we were stuck at 4.7k for a while.

In a few years we might be pissed that it's stuck at 470k.

You bet, we'll be pissed.

Quote from the future.

Stuck at 470k again it seems.  

Remember this?

Coin



Explanation