[edited out]
A nice read.
Summary: 21 BTC.
Ok 21 BTC is enough.
Are you saying right now that 21 BTC is enough or that 21 BTC is enough in a kind of maintenance level way?
I have some kind of a projection systems that I use that show the number of BTC that I currently have and then I project out the quantity of BTC that I expect to have in the future as the BTC price goes up, and so hypothetically, if I were to start out with 21BTC now, based on my current way of projecting out, I would anticipate if BTC prices were to shoot up to $1.2 million, then I might only have around 18.4BTC... so sure that is a possible ratio that still works...
However, I suppose that if you were to want to end up with 21 BTC by the time the BTC price reaches $1.2 million, then you would need something like 24BTC currently.
Those are just approximate withdrawal ratios that I currently have in my BTC price projections and BTC portfolio expectations in the event such a BTC price rise up to $1.2 million were to happen.
$1.2 million? Per coin? That would surely make 21 BTC a fuck-you amount of corn, won't it? Even 2.1 BTC could be called that, albeit borderline and more risky.
Of course I weave spot price into my various bitcoin discussion because it surely is a factor that both allows abilities to get a running tally regarding how many dollars you are going to get for your bitcoin at this particular moment or upon some kinds of price spikes, and for sure the spot price will also move up our various lagging indicators (our BTC price bottoms).
So, yeah if we are talking about spot price, then it would be a bit of a stretch to get to $1.2 million in this cycle, but surely it does not seem as likely to be a stretch to get to $1.2 million by the next cycle, depending upon where this one ends and then depending upon where this one subsequently bottoms.
Just today, I did update my entry-level fuck you status chart that is based on the 208-week moving average, and surely that chart is anticipating that the 208-week moving average will continue to move up around 75% per year, so with that kind of a projection, a 21 BTC stash does not reach entry level fuck you status until around mid-2024, and a 2.1 Bitcoin stash would not reach fuck you status until sometime in early 2028.
Of course, our 208-week moving average indicator could slow down in the pace at which it is moving up (so move down to less than 75% per year), and another thing to consider would be how much longer are we going to be able to consider $2 million as an adequate entry-level fuck you status. In a few years, we may have to move up to $5 million for our entry-level fuck you status threshold, even though I am still o.k. with sticking with $2 million for the time being.. and probably will still work for a few more years before we have to move up to a higher entry-level number, unless inflation continues as crazy levels that are staying higher than 15%-ish.. and yeah, we are not even used to those kinds of double digit numbers so we have to understand and appreciate why some of the status quo Fed Reserve folks are seeming so nervous and desperate in some of their lowball deceptive numbers that project inflation levels at around 6% that they are putting out there, and by actually living in the real world, we should be hard-pressed to actually believe those numbers.
Just the other day I was listening to some mainstream news report, and I heard some kind of news that Biden is claiming the best performing economy after the first year of his presidency, and for sure, those kinds of claims are bolstered based on a lot of artificiality that causes numbers to get way BIGGER, including a soaring stock market and other ways that people are pumping up various assets, such as property values, and so in the end we should be wonder what they are smoking to be spinning matters so ongoingly rosily with their ongoing deceptions.. that are likely going to have troubles to keep these various balls in the air and without normies catching on to the ongoing deceptions, no?
So the punchline regarding how many Bitcoin you need...and how much cushion that you are going to need will likely have some variation in terms of how each of us are going to want to measure our BTC values, and personally, I believe that my way of measuring it does provide quite a bit of cushion in terms of both being able to reassess how high spot price continues to be above the 208-week moving average (whether you are already in fuck you status or not), but also having some kind of somewhat secure cushion so that some of us normies (who happen to own bitcoin, too) are not prematurely entering into fuck you status.... so whatever is your valuation of your BTC stash, you should want to make sure that there is some kind of sustainability to it, once you start drawing upon it on a regular basis to live.... in other words, I would hate to be drawing upon either 21 BTC or 2.1 BTC right now (especially if it were my sole source of income), but I would not be so bothered to be drawing upon 105-ish BTC, even if it were by sole source of income.. which is the current fuck you status entry-level that uses the 208-week moving average ($2,000,000 / $19k)
I remember reading about that idea of being "one in a million" by acquiring 21 BTC. That was at a time when it was relatively easy to reach that level of corn HoDLship. Now, this is way more difficult, and, surely, it's going to be even more difficult in the near future (with some BTFD periods in between, that might ease things a bit, with the current one being one of them). Anyway, I find the "one in a million" target to be a bit silly, and more about semantics, rather than substance. "One in a million?" So what? I don't care if I'm one in a million of anything, as long as I can do what I need, want, desire to do, and also contribute to something that will help the world at large.
For sure some of those targets are meaningless if they are not attempted to be measured in terms of something whether we are talking dollar value or even considering ranches or lakes, or hookers, lambos and blow.
And, the longer we have been in bitcoin, then the more chances that we would have had to have been able to acquire BTC at what seems to currently be unreachable prices, and those kinds of dynamics should not necessarily discourage folks from doing whatever they can in terms of their attempting to stack as many sats as they reasonably can. So, surely there could be issues about NOT yet being even close to fuck you status, even if you have been in bitcoin for a while because of reasons.. including mistakes were made or including that some folks had been playing around with selling BTC in order to be able to buy more (which does not always work out as well as a more pure and straight-forward accumulation strategy).
And, also sometimes some HODLERS might have started acting as if they were in fuck you status before they actually have reached fuck you status, and then they end up depleting too much of their BTC holdings too soon... not really saying that any of this is easy in practice, and sometimes even working out the theory is not easy either... but I still consider that it is better to work out some kind of theory in order to have a suitable prudent and workable plan to follow. We do not necessarily want to get of ourselves even if we might have gotten ourselves in a good position.. so even though 21BTC or even 2.1 BTC were not that difficult to acquire 4-8 years ago, it could take a decent amount of time to acquire another 0.21 BTC or even to accumulate another 1 BTC... in the event that a little bit more building of your own BTC stack might be necessary to pass above and beyond a reasonably calculated way of assessing that you are actually in fuck you status rather than prematurely coming to that assessment.
Another thing is that in bitcoinlandia, even if we have historically talked about the need to attempt to create reasonable BTC accumulation quantities for yourself, I doubt that any of us were really suggesting that guys needed to put vast amounts of value into BTC, and even consider mindrust admitting that he had screwed up at various points in his early bitcoin days, and then asserting that he was going to work on stacking sats in 2017, 2018 and 2019... so he was frequently complaining that he did not have enough BTC, but he ended up getting above 5 BTC and then finally getting above 10 BTC, so in some sense there was some practicality there to ONLY do what you can in terms of accumulating BTC and then hoping that some later point BTC price appreciation will end up doing some of the additional leg work for you, but in his case, he had over invested, so he ended up not being able to enjoy subsequent BTC price appreciation, even after he had reached a decent accumulation level of 10 BTC that ended up being too much for him to handle. ... so I suppose part of my point is that if we do what we can, even if some of that BTC accumulation might feel quite modest and even insubstantial, we also have to be careful NOT to be overdoing it.. don't be accumulating beyond our financial and/or psychological abilities to handle the UPs and DOWNs along the way.
To answer your question, I guess it heavily depends on where and how one lives, and what his/her goals are. In a western European country, for example, I'd say that 21 BTC is currently good enough as a safety net that enables the HoDLer to be more direct in using the F-word in his interactions with persons of authority, such as bosses, banks, governments, even family members, etc., but it's still a bit less that what I'd consider true fuck-you status. In 2022-2023, that will most probably change, to the point when 21 BTC gives you true fuck-you rights for most things. I'm not talking about lakes and ranches, these require triple digits at the very least (currently, that is), but I never personally felt the need to own such types of property.
So, yeah I think that I largely agree with the way that you are framing some of this, and for sure there is going to be some dependence on your timeline (or where you live), but I am also trying to get away from some of the individual variance to just talk about getting to entry level fuck you status on a more objective level of reaching $2 million, and of course, any of us should be able to adjust ourselves to some of our own geographical details or cost of living details in terms of if we feel that we might need to adjust upwardly or downwardly, and for example, if you have already acquired 21 BTC or if you might be close to reaching 21 BTC, then you might start to feel as if in the next 2-3 years, you will be in a pretty good place if you were to have 21 BTC by that time.
Even
in aysg76's thread, I had provided a kind of projection that even at $100 per week (which may well seem decently aggressive for a lot of people) it could take 4 years to accumulate even 0.43BTC, if you had started in mid-2021 and you presume that BTC's spot price is going up 12% per year.. .and of course, the ups and down in bitcoin can certainly affect how much BTC any of us are able to accumulate. Surely, if we get some kind of sense that BTC's price is likely going to be going up more than 12% per year, then we might want to become more aggressive in our BTC accumulation, but we still need to try to stay within a budget that is not going to put us in a bad position psychologically or financially.
In short, it all depends on the individual, as each one of us is different. I do, however, feel that 21 BTC is a good amount of corn that enables one to reside in the upper floors of the Bitcoin citadel, as pictured beautifully below.
I am surely not going to poo poo the quantity of BTC that anyone is going to be able to accumulate, and for sure if any of us is just getting in, then we are going to need to be aiming at some quantity that is reasonable for us, so these days that seems to be 0.21 BTC, and then working to higher levels of accumulation, if we can get to 1 BTC or 2.1BTC or higher. Any of those quantities are likely to be fine for 10 years or more down the line.
Of course, we have already been in bitcoin for a while, then we have already made some moves in our 10-year or more timeline, so long as we have not caused ourselves to retrogress too much..
We also know that some players in bitcoin seem to be be hoarding so much bitcoin, that even getting to .21BTC might well not be a bad place to be in the years to come, but we do what we can, and if we might think that having had already established $100 per week or getting into higher amounts of BTC accumulation might allow for some newbies to get to some of the higher levels of BTC accumulation, but it seems quite difficult for any normie newbies in the past year and a half or so to be able to even reasonably get to BTC levels that mindrust had already accomplished.. and quite likely mindrust, as well is not too likely to get back to those kinds of BTC levels either.. absent some kind of miracle, so he might well need to aspire to lower levels of BTC accumulation.. perhaps.. getting above 5 BTC is reasonably doable for him, perhaps? perhaps? It helps to already know about BTC, and at one point, Mindrust did say that he had acquired back 1 out of the 10 BTC that he had sold.. and maybe he has been able to stack a few more BTC since March 2020.. to get at least above 2.1 BTC.. I am not sure if he is going to want to clarify any of this for us.. because he had put himself in a really bad place, both psychologically and financially... and even a bit of seeming stubbornness and lack of appreciating or understanding the value of bitcoin in there, too.
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