Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shahzadafzal]

Happy New year!
First WO contest of 2022!
Where am I?

More precision=> more merits.

I am so angry with this post for reasons... that should probably be ranted about in that other thread...

I know, I know.
FFP2 are required on all closed lifts here.
Theoretically also outside are required, but come on, common sense… and nobody cares.
Here it is on almost only for opsec.

I saw it too and restricted myself from starting another altercation in this thread 💉😷

[1714197548]

1714197548

[shahzadafzal]

Hahahaha ETH’s monetary policy

https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/1477314180688588801?s=21

[Phil_S]

Pretty sure Max Keiser promised 220k by the end of 2021...

[PoolMinor]

Happy New year!
First WO contest of 2022!
Where am I?


More precision=> more merits.

46.478635, 11.812831

Belveder
38032 Canazei, TB Italy


Edit:
Streetview

https://www.google.com/maps/@46.478367,11.8129745,3a,18.4y,23.72h,103.28t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipNnfha-TdYZTa1HY0F6icMDTzTXGedhQJ4ZTzk!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNnfha-TdYZTa1HY0F6icMDTzTXGedhQJ4ZTzk%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya120.54605-ro-0-fo100!7i5472!8i2736?hl=en-AE

[Wekkel]

Hahahaha ETH’s monetary policy

https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/1477314180688588801?s=21

I misread ‘ECB’ monetary policy 

[Biodom]

@jjg "A false irrelevant and unimportant indicator that you would like to cause to be relevant, when it no doesn't mean shit."

I think it is quite important, and if you think that it doesn't than you are delusional. To go in one year from 73% to 40% is not nothing.
In actuality, i was actually cheering it UP, not down and you got enraged by a mere mentioning of the word. What's wrong with you?

@jjg Regarding our bet-I would like to call your bullshit on this.

Here are my odds and conditions:

Since you give 25% to above 200K, I would bet 0.4 btc that it won't exceed 200K until 1pm EST Sept 1, 2022 and YOU would bet 0.1 btc that btc would be above 200K at some point between now and the date mentioned here earlier.
4:1 odds in YOUR favor.
I don't care betting on exceeding 30-65K range and I would not accept any other conditions.

uie-pooie says what?

[Biodom]

Pretty sure Max Keiser promised 220k by the end of 2021...

Nothing a new "clown" act cannot fix.

[fillippone]

Edit:
Streetview

https://www.google.com/maps/@46.478367,11.8129745,3a,18.4y,23.72h,103.28t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipNnfha-TdYZTa1HY0F6icMDTzTXGedhQJ4ZTzk!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNnfha-TdYZTa1HY0F6icMDTzTXGedhQJ4ZTzk%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya120.54605-ro-0-fo100!7i5472!8i2736?hl=en-AE

I think you cannot get MOAR accurate than this!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[PoolMinor]

Edit:
Streetview

https://www.google.com/maps/@46.478367,11.8129745,3a,18.4y,23.72h,103.28t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipNnfha-TdYZTa1HY0F6icMDTzTXGedhQJ4ZTzk!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNnfha-TdYZTa1HY0F6icMDTzTXGedhQJ4ZTzk%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya120.54605-ro-0-fo100!7i5472!8i2736?hl=en-AE

I think you cannot get MOAR accurate than this!

If it were not for the person taking the picture in Jan 2020 (Bogdan Chiriac), probably I would not have seen the building with the windows and the fence with the signs attached.

[JayJuanGee]

Probably my main criticism would be the presumption that the upwards slope is flattening as much as you are depicting it to do or that it is inclined to do..

I'm not depicting that the upwards slope is flattening, or presuming such a idea. Bitcoin's price has depicted such a fact, no-one else. Either that, or logarithms are a failed form of mathematics, despite being universally accepted since the 17th century. It's been developed over the centuries but otherwise remains a relatively simplistic equation, and yet to be proved wrong. Nuff said.

You can proclaim it as maths and sciences until you are blue in the face, but I see that your chart has upside limitations on king daddy of about $280k until the early part of 2023 and your more drawn out chart does allow the amounts to continue to rise, and it is not exactly easy to read what those limitations into late 2025 and even 2026/2027 would be, but those limits seem to be quite a bit more restricted than I would consider them to be.  One thing about locking in a chart would be that the chart is what it is at that particular time, but I imagine if our lillie fiend, aka king daddy, ends up performing too much at the top of the parameters in the chart, then such parameters will be shifted up in later charts.. and the same is true with the range that appears to be narrowing.. they can be tweaked to account for the subsequent data.    If you were able to zoom in on 2023 to 2027, I would be interested to see those numbers more clearly, and I will bet that my opinion of our range is broader and my opinion about the upside is higher, and I could give less than two shits about your supposed math and sciences that are supposedly driving your supposed version of truth.

By the way, just in regards to what appears to be your chart's only going up to $280k by early 2023, I will say that my latest rendition of probabilities and prices on December 16, does not contain $280k exactly because I have $220k to $440k as a range depicted therein, but you can add up the numbers, and I have my rendition of supra $440k to be 14.5% that would be before 2023.. but I have a bit of waffling that asserts a 95.5% chance that our top of this cycle plays out by the end of 3rd quarter 2022... so probably there would be some need to put my timeline in there too which would likely reduce my assertion of 14.5% odds for supra $440k before 2023.,. and if you look at my supra $220k numbers, I have an additional 14.5% added for that, so supra $220k has something like 29% odds before 2023.. with that same kind of percentage reduction to account for my 4.5% odds that the top of the peak could happen after 3rd quarter 2022.

My point is not to proclaim myself as any kind of guru, but just to highlight that my rendition of numbers have way smaller than non-zero odds to depict BTC's price going above the $280k that appears to be a ceiling that is in your chart for early 2023... and so maybe verbally, you might assert that there could be a spike above the chart limits or even on either side of the depicted range, which we do have some periods in which there are short-lived spikes that go outside of the range of your chart.. and so if BTC were to get stuck in the higher end of the range of your chart for longer periods, then maybe the range or the limits could end up getting adjusted... Maybe in the end we are not saying a whole hell of a lot differently because I would not even be proclaiming the really higher numbers to be sustainable?  For example my depiction of $800k to $1.5million and then my depiction of above $1.5 million for this cycle only add up to about 2.5% odds, so they would seem pretty unlikely to happen, and for sure I would consider something like that to not be sustainable and likely to have a 85%-ish correction.. but really does not seem to be within the parameters of acceptable within your chart at all.... so let's take the most extreme of something like a supra $1.5 million peak that ends up happening towards the end of 2022 and maybe early 2023, then within the next year we end up getting an 85% correction for a period of time would bring BTC prices down to something like $225k.. and then we go from there in terms of how long a recovery might take, and your chart does not seem to allow that, even though mine only puts such a scenario at less than half a percent, and so maybe in that regard, I am proclaiming difference and the defiance of your supposed maths and sciences that don't really seem to allow for something like that, even if it is a long shot scenario.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

For all you ham radio enthusiast, a 97 year old station powering up and transmitting, amazing old technology.

SAQ Grimeton Christmas Eve 2021 Transmission on December 24th

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ecg2UrKvNr8

Edit: "SAQ is transmitting on one frequency only; 17.2 Khz, as the radio wave is generated mechanically and the rotating alternator cannot produce any higher frequency. The transmitter was installed in 1924 and it was in operation 24/7 for several years. During WWII it was used to communicate with sub marines, as the low frequency allows the radio wave to be recieved under water, down to about 6 meters (18 ft). We are on air 2-3 times a year. See our website alexander.n.se and subscribe to our newletter and you will be noticed in time before any."

The antenna is 2,2 km long, that's a hell of an antenna.

Fascinating well presented video, enjoyed that more than most of the crap I've endured over Christmas holidays.
Don't know that cAPSLOCK's transceiver would pick up VLF as low 17.2Khz.

Bitcoin price still hovering at mid December levels, no tears to shed.

Optimistic for 2022.

Arriemoller and all of WO Happy New Year and many more of them.

I am not a radio expert by ANY means.  But no, I am certain that under NORMAL circumstances my radio could not pick up a a 2km+ wavelength.   Ha.  It can RX down to 30k, but of course only in amateur ranges.  I thin there would need to be some sort of converter and the right antenna, then I could do it.  Perhaps when the time comes for a future TX I will see if I have the energy to put together what I need to receive.

I am MOST interested in CW just on the basis of how far one can communicate on the amount of energy in a lightbulb.  But I have exactly zero morse code skill whatsoever.  It's one of those bucket list things I doubt I ever get around to.

[Tash]

............... how far one can communicate on the amount of energy in a lightbulb.  .............

Well take a typical 60 watt Ghetto Blaster turn to maximum and measure how far away it can be heard. (no wind, obstacles...)
The longer the wavelenght the less power needed and less data transmission possible. More pulses , more data, more power needed. 7.83 Hz goes all the way around.

[Richy_T]

Yeah, inflation is gonna eat his billions. Should've bought bitcoins when he had a chance.

That wealth isn't in filthy fiat. He'll cash it out suspiciously just before a bubble burst and leave the plebs holding their bags.

[Richy_T]

Slow crawls up, fast slaps down. Prognosis: up.

[dragonvslinux]

Probably my main criticism would be the presumption that the upwards slope is flattening as much as you are depicting it to do or that it is inclined to do..

I'm not depicting that the upwards slope is flattening, or presuming such a idea. Bitcoin's price has depicted such a fact, no-one else. Either that, or logarithms are a failed form of mathematics, despite being universally accepted since the 17th century. It's been developed over the centuries but otherwise remains a relatively simplistic equation, and yet to be proved wrong. Nuff said.

You can proclaim it as maths and sciences until you are blue in the face, but I see that your chart has upside limitations on king daddy of about $280k until the early part of 2023 and your more drawn out chart does allow the amounts to continue to rise, and it is not exactly easy to read what those limitations into late 2025 and even 2026/2027 would be, but those limits seem to be quite a bit more restricted than I would consider them to be.  [...] If you were able to zoom in on 2023 to 2027, I would be interested to see those numbers more clearly, and I will bet that my opinion of our range is broader and my opinion about the upside is higher, and I could give less than two shits about your supposed math and sciences that are supposedly driving your supposed version of truth.

Ok, as requested, based on the TV indicator "log growth cruves", here is a zoomed in version of 2023-2027. As well as is possible to achieve at least.



Since it's still near impossible to accurately identify the upper band, here is the rounded data from some crudely drawn lines (roughly identified):

2022: $148K
2023: $232K
2024: $360K
2025: $558K
2026: $838K
2027: $1.29M
2028: $1.9M

For sure this log growth is only as accurate as when Bitcoin's price remains within it, as it has been the case for the past 10 years. If it were to break above or below and stay there, for example above ~$250K this year, and continue higher, then for sure it'd be invalidated. With the three touch-points from the peaks, it wouldn't be possible to re-calculate the upper band without missing a peak out, or "shifting it" as you put it.

One thing about locking in a chart would be that the chart is what it is at that particular time, but I imagine if our lillie fiend, aka king daddy, ends up performing too much at the top of the parameters in the chart, then such parameters will be shifted up in later charts.. and the same is true with the range that appears to be narrowing.. they can be tweaked to account for the subsequent data.

Not the case anymore no.

Price will remain within it until it no longer remains within it, to put it simply. Previously with only two touch-points there was no accurate log growth, as the curve could merely be "shifted" to fit such a narrative, but since the 2017 top there is no shifting left that is possible. Ultimately this is why I like this log curve, because while it may not be right forever, like Bitcoin, this curve of logarithmic growth is immutable.

For context and reference sake, the above chart is an exact replica of the zoomed-in version previously posted:

I see it as more than possible that Bitcoin shifts away from this structured adoption and into a macro-sized bubble that eventually pops, in the same way the adoption could end and lead to a multi-year bear market, but so far I see no evidence of either event happened. It was close in March 2020, but alas price recovered quickly enough to return to the adoption trend.

[cAPSLOCK]

For all you ham radio enthusiast, a 97 year old station powering up and transmitting, amazing old technology.

SAQ Grimeton Christmas Eve 2021 Transmission on December 24th

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ecg2UrKvNr8

Edit: "SAQ is transmitting on one frequency only; 17.2 Khz, as the radio wave is generated mechanically and the rotating alternator cannot produce any higher frequency. The transmitter was installed in 1924 and it was in operation 24/7 for several years. During WWII it was used to communicate with sub marines, as the low frequency allows the radio wave to be recieved under water, down to about 6 meters (18 ft). We are on air 2-3 times a year. See our website alexander.n.se and subscribe to our newletter and you will be noticed in time before any."

The antenna is 2,2 km long, that's a hell of an antenna.

Fascinating well presented video, enjoyed that more than most of the crap I've endured over Christmas holidays.
Don't know that cAPSLOCK's transceiver would pick up VLF as low 17.2Khz.

Bitcoin price still hovering at mid December levels, no tears to shed.

Optimistic for 2022.

Arriemoller and all of WO Happy New Year and many more of them.

I am not a radio expert by ANY means.  But no, I am certain that under NORMAL circumstances my radio could not pick up a a 2km+ wavelength.   Ha.  It can RX down to 30k, but of course only in amateur ranges.  I thin there would need to be some sort of converter and the right antenna, then I could do it.  Perhaps when the time comes for a future TX I will see if I have the energy to put together what I need to receive.

I am MOST interested in CW just on the basis of how far one can communicate on the amount of energy in a lightbulb.  But I have exactly zero morse code skill whatsoever.  It's one of those bucket list things I doubt I ever get around to.

For those who want to get lost in the signal this is a fun site:

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/

[xhomerx10]

Hahahaha ETH’s monetary policy

https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/1477314180688588801?s=21

 Nice!  Giffed it for those who don't click links.

 

[OutOfMemory]

Edit:
Streetview

https://www.google.com/maps/@46.478367,11.8129745,3a,18.4y,23.72h,103.28t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipNnfha-TdYZTa1HY0F6icMDTzTXGedhQJ4ZTzk!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNnfha-TdYZTa1HY0F6icMDTzTXGedhQJ4ZTzk%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya120.54605-ro-0-fo100!7i5472!8i2736?hl=en-AE

I think you cannot get MOAR accurate than this!

Perfect find!
Marmolada was my closest guess, however.
So is the formation in the background the Langkofel/Plattkofel group?