Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[lightfoot]

Yeah, we're all doomed and whatnot.....

Oh well.

[ImThour]

ChartBuddy is my friend, he will go the other way really soon.
Hopium.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Yeah, we're all doomed and whatnot.....

Oh well.

Question is do the bears still have enough dry powder to push us into the 30s for any significant length of time. Looks like they are struggling to be honest, but, I hear inflation numbers are due in a couple days so that might be enough to at least get us into the 30s. Perhaps not stay there though. Still thinking we should get a bounch soon, shorts must be building up.

[somac.]

looks like the 10y is over 1.8. If it goes over 2 I reckon we'll hear some softer words from the Fed.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-resume-tumbling-after-yields-spike-new-2-year-high

[bitcoinPsycho]

Buy buy buy he cries

[Cryptotourist]

OK, so I sold half of my stash in November and December in small increments, on the way down from $69k.
My average is not that bad, as my first sell offs were kinda of chunky.

Thank you BTC.

That said, it seems that we are currently scrapping the floors based on a few indicators.
As we failed to hit a pointy blow-off price in 2021, I think that once again we will fail to meet a rounded -70%+ bottom (already at -40%).
People waiting to buy at the 200 WMA this year, might be in for a surprise (maybe in 2023 or 2024).
Either way I’m DCA-ing the next few years, hoping to get back at least what I had, if not moar.

My TA for 2022:

[somac.]

Orderbook of bitstamp as shown on bitcoinwisdom.

Anyone got 8.5 million for a market buy.

Stock to flow still in play, lol.

[cAPSLOCK]

Gerald Celente:
Trend analyst discussing inflation.


[imgwidth=150]https://i.postimg.cc/7hWD3j3K/reality-hits.png[/img]









https://youtu.be/PdA_bOcDOiQ?t=1160

Eek!

He just said EXACTLY what I see maybe coming.

1.  Interest rates go up.
2.  Markets digest this.
3.  Shit begins to hit the fan.
4.  Bitcoin gets hammered, going down with other risk assets.
5.  Here we go... end of the world as we know it.  People on the streets... crazy.
6.  Bitcoin goes CRAZY up.

*Sigh*.  I do not want this way...

"I have been at this for 47 years.  I have never been as concerned about the future as I am now.  Because when all else fails, they take you to war."

[somac.]

Gerald Celente:
Trend analyst discussing inflation.


[imgwidth=150]https://i.postimg.cc/7hWD3j3K/reality-hits.png[/img]









https://youtu.be/PdA_bOcDOiQ?t=1160

Eek!

He just said EXACTLY what I see maybe coming.

1.  Interest rates go up.
2.  Markets digest this.
3.  Shit begins to hit the fan.
4.  Bitcoin gets hammered, going down with other risk assets.
5.  Here we go... end of the world as we know it.  People on the streets... crazy.
6.  Bitcoin goes CRAZY up.

*Sigh*.  I do not want this way...

"I have been at this for 47 years.  I have never been as concerned about the future as I am now.  Because when all else fails, they take you to war."

Gerald Celente has been an uber bear for ever, I don't find him credible.

[aesma]

I suppose that each of us has our own tools (or ways) to try to figure out how BTC has a better purchasing price today than it is likely to have in the future.. so the value is going up and yeah accumulating as many as reasonable and feasible now is likely going to pay off into the future.

You probably have seen that I am a bit concerned about valuing my coins in terms of price tops because, and in order to account for likely ongoing volatility, I like to attempt to consider how the bottom is moving up with the passage of time.  I am not sure if you and I end up at the same place, but I do want to personally error on the side of conservativism, and maybe your placing a future value of $1million causes you to NOT so much get worried about today's price since it is way below $1million, so you are still getting a bargain.. something like that which causes you to continue to appreciate the future value and your need to accumulate BTC at better prices....

I'm at work so will only answer that for now. You're much further along the line than me so I understand your POV, and when it will be time for me to sell BTC (or just spend, by then...) then of course looking at the tops isn't a good idea. Up to now and without having thought about it much my "ideal plan" would be to have at least one year, or better 2-3 years of fiat tucked away, to never sell/spend BTC when it's down. With the idea of living within reasonable means.

It's also possible that by then there are reputable/regulated "crypto banks" where one could put part of ones' stash and get a good, regular fiat return on it. If fiat is still in use.

[cAPSLOCK]

Eek!

He just said EXACTLY what I see maybe coming.

1.  Interest rates go up.
2.  Markets digest this.
3.  Shit begins to hit the fan.
4.  Bitcoin gets hammered, going down with other risk assets.
5.  Here we go... end of the world as we know it.  People on the streets... crazy.
6.  Bitcoin goes CRAZY up.

*Sigh*.  I do not want this way...

"I have been at this for 47 years.  I have never been as concerned about the future as I am now.  Because when all else fails, they take you to war."

Gerald Celente has been an uber bear for ever, I don't find him credible.

I would be glad for you to be right, and him to be chicken little.

One thing still bugs me though.  I am NOT a doom and gloom bear.  In fact I am an optimist to a fault.  But I have always seen a little farther down the road than most people.  I would assume that is true of many here.  In my older age I am making a little money because of it, and keeping my family safer.

In DEC/JAN 19/20 I was telling a guy I work with that there was a pandemic on the way, but the scary thing would not be the disease (hopefully) as much as the second order effects.  I bet if I were not lazy I could find a post here from around that time saying basically that.  What I saw as the second order effects were things like financial system collapse... small businesses going away, and supply chain disruption.  That type of thing.

But recently I have been realizing that is just the tip of the iceberg.  I was also generically worried about war... but I did not exactly see how we get there.  Thing is now that's becoming a little more clear to me.

I will share just one little realization that has been haunting the f&*$ out of me over the weekend.

IF we continue to keep seeing footballers, and tennis players having heart attacks on TV, and more of us have friends taken out randomly by heart attacks and strokes eventually the genie will be all the way out of the bottle.  I think we are already there.  It's just a matter of how bad does it get.

People on one political side are calling for the Nuremberg code to be invoked.  Well if it turns out those people are right.  This event will cause THE BIGGEST setback for modern medicine in our lives for sure.  MRNA tech could be the delivery mechanism that leads to a cure for most cancers.

But it will be decades... many decades before people trust medicine, pharmaceuticals, the media and governments again.  And some people who are not fans of these things might say "Good let em burn". And in some ways I am one of them.  But the cost will be great.  Not only in the lives of people who were led to their own deaths by a machine chanting "trust the science" (a phrase that is a perfect distillation of the OPPOSITE of science).  But more will die waiting for that cure for cancer that may also be coming later because the the destroyed trust in out systems, and institutions.

Not to mention the inevitable war we will see...

I am probably a worse bear in this regard than Celente.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[naim027]

Hi Bitcoiners! Missed my shitpost? Oh, I am sorry. I was on vacation and enjoyed it a lot. I Hope LFC_Bitcoin didn't join KFC yet. C'mon bro, get up. Be ready.

I bought it in DIP 😁
But, it's keep dipping 😅

[Copetech]

Eek!

He just said EXACTLY what I see maybe coming.

1.  Interest rates go up.
2.  Markets digest this.
3.  Shit begins to hit the fan.
4.  Bitcoin gets hammered, going down with other risk assets.
5.  Here we go... end of the world as we know it.  People on the streets... crazy.
6.  Bitcoin goes CRAZY up.

*Sigh*.  I do not want this way...

"I have been at this for 47 years.  I have never been as concerned about the future as I am now.  Because when all else fails, they take you to war."

Gerald Celente has been an uber bear for ever, I don't find him credible.

I would be glad for you to be right, and him to be chicken little.

One thing still bugs me though.  I am NOT a doom and gloom bear.  In fact I am an optimist to a fault.  But I have always seen a little farther down the road than most people.  I would assume that is true of many here.  In my older age I am making a little money because of it, and keeping my family safer.

In DEC/JAN 19/20 I was telling a guy I work with that there was a pandemic on the way, but the scary thing would not be the disease (hopefully) as much as the second order effects.  I bet if I were not lazy I could find a post here from around that time saying basically that.  What I saw as the second order effects were things like financial system collapse... small businesses going away, and supply chain disruption.  That type of thing.

But recently I have been realizing that is just the tip of the iceberg.  I was also generically worried about war... but I did not exactly see how we get there.  Thing is now that's becoming a little more clear to me.

I will share just one little realization that has been haunting the f&*$ out of me over the weekend.

IF we continue to keep seeing footballers, and tennis players having heart attacks on TV, and more of us have friends taken out randomly by heart attacks and strokes eventually the genie will be all the way out of the bottle.  I think we are already there.  It's just a matter of how bad does it get.

People on one political side are calling for the Nuremberg code to be invoked.  Well if it turns out those people are right.  This event will cause THE BIGGEST setback for modern medicine in our lives for sure.  MRNA tech could be the delivery mechanism that leads to a cure for most cancers.

But it will be decades... many decades before people trust medicine, pharmaceuticals, the media and governments again.  And some people who are not fans of these things might say "Good let em burn". And in some ways I am one of them.  But the cost will be great.  Not only in the lives of people who were led to their own deaths by a machine chanting "trust the science" (a phrase that is a perfect distillation of the OPPOSITE of science).  But more will die waiting for that cure for cancer that may also be coming later because the the destroyed trust in out systems, and institutions.

Not to mention the inevitable war we will see...

I am probably a worse bear in this regard than Celente.

Interesting Times...

Here take my last.

[tertius993]

Oops ...

[Hamich124D]

Y'all think it's a good time to short BTC now ? looks like 30k is inevitable at this point
a quick bounce can fuck you up if you use too much leverage tho

[lightfoot]

Y'all think it's a good time to short BTC now ? looks like 30k is inevitable at this point
a quick bounce can fuck you up if you use too much leverage tho

Oh noes! It's hit 39k! Start burning the village!

Oh wait, back over 40k, save the village.

[jojo69]

making a can of beans cost $4.

[lightfoot]

"I have been at this for 47 years.  I have never been as concerned about the future as I am now.  Because when all else fails, they take you to war."

I was a lot more concerned in the 80's when everyone knew we were six minutes from annihilation at any time due to the friendly SSBM Boomer off the coast of NYC. That was low grade stress.

This... eh. We also had to deal with 18% inflation at the time and we managed. The real suck was stagflation, when wages did nothing and prices just zipped on up.