Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinHodler]

what the hell is going on these days. last time i was around the only thing people were comparing bitcoin to was gold and even they were called crazies but now i have seen people compare bitcoin market to everything and insist the movements should be the same!!!
did COVID eat everyone's brains?

[naim027]

Kind of helps to establish part of my post responding to you in the stock to flow thread... in which you seemed to have been complaining about BTC prices not going up fast enough..and the fact of the matter is that anyone who remains in BTC accumulation phase should be rejoicing that some of our seemingly inevitable UPpity price moves are actually taking a while to play out.

https://youtube.com/shorts/9L5PC_O2osQ

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

what the hell is going on these days. last time i was around the only thing people were comparing bitcoin to was gold and even they were called crazies but now i have seen people compare bitcoin market to everything and insist the movements should be the same!!!
did COVID eat everyone's brains?

Lamborghini is still a tractor.    

















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Anyway.. I feel rly bullish about this price trend.    

[BlackHatCoiner]

In bitcoin there is something different and not possible with traditional assets: on chain analysis.

But, that's a completely inaccurate measure. I can pretend to move 2 BTC, but I'll have only moved 1.

[BitcoinHodler]

i haven't seen any Lambo guys either.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

If the price now was 49K, I would have considered it as extremely dissapointing. 35K I would compare to this

[JayJuanGee]

crash the market down to $20-$19k, and I think it's going to be retested again.

I don't see this happening. Hearing talk of Saylor being margin called at $21k, and it's not clear to me how/why we would drop that low.

Strange times to be sure.

Well, it is starting to feel as if the 100-week moving average is more likely to be tested, and even that it is inevitably going to be breached, and the 100-week moving average is at $35k.

We need to consider the various support levels one at a time before garnering up too much confidence that the $20k price area is going to be reached or tested.. Perhaps $20k is the new $10k that had been the wet dreams of many of the bitcoin naysayers and the pie in the sky negative Nancies.

By the way, even if we do end up transitioning into a bear market (or we had already been in a bear market, but just did not know it), which I am going to concede that so much testing of the 100-week moving average is surely giving credence to that possible conclusion, we still need to consider that the 200-week moving average does not tend to get breached even in the worst of times... at least not so far in bitcoin's history.. but then again, bitcoin is ONLY a 13 year asset (with probably ONLY about 10 years of somewhat established and somewhat publicly accessible markets). 

In any event, the 200-week moving average is currently at nearly $21,700 and continues to move up so long as BTC spot price remains above that 200-WMA price point.  In that regard, if the BTC spot price were to expeditiously crash down to $20k, then that would already be a spike that would be approaching 10% lower than the current 20-WMA price point. I will not argue that such a possibly imminent (or soon in the near future) crash down to $20k would NOT be possible (because almost anything is surely possible), but a crash to such an extreme level that would be currently 10% below the 200-WMA comes off as a real hard to achieve event.. in other words highly improbable.

The other kind of crash scenario would be a slower kind of crash, rather than an immediate crash, and since the 200-WMA continues to move up so long as the BTC spot price is above it, the lowest level that it could plausibly crash continues to move up too.. so if $20k comes off as highly improbably for a hypothetical imminent BTC price crash, then with that same logic, even some kind of BTC spot price crash to a range like $22k to $24k should come off as similarly implausible if such supposed crashening might be projected to take 1-2 months or longer to get down to the lowest of possible kinds of anticipated crash levels.

Regarding Saylor being margin called at $21k, I believe that Saylor had answered a hypothetical question, and I have not heard exactly what Saylor said - but I am pretty sure I understand the scenario that had been presented to him, which is if he (MSTR) did not do anything, then at what level would the BTC price have to drop before his current position were to start to get margin called, and Saylor answered that a price of $21k would start to trigger a margin call for about 20k of the company's BTC (which is about 15% of their total BTC stash 0f 130k BTC).  Think about the pie in the sky presumption of the question, that says if Saylor/MSTR would not do anything, and there are several things that he/MSTR could do, including but not limited to adding more collateral.  Many of us appreciate that getting margin called does not tend to be a good thing because it causes a forced selling at a time that usually ends up NOT favoring the one who ended up getting margin called - and that is really a pie in the sky chance to happen to someone like Saylor or his company.

[Torque]

I agree with the sentiment, but WS numbers cannot be accurate for the area as a whole.
Last week some "vitrual' land sale basically broke cough-eth-cough for a day.
Fees alone were more than $100mil.
I did not partake, but saw the info on the interwebs.
I have no interest in pic NFTs whatsoever.

Punters are drying up, that one huge tweet was supposed to go for 48million got a $280 bid. LMFAO

Crypto investor Sina Estavi was known to have bought Twitter founder Jack Dorsey’s first-ever tweet NFT for $2.9 million USD last year. Just last week, Estavi listed the NFT for sale at $48 million USD.

https://hypebeast.com/2022/4/jack-dorsey-first-tweet-nft-flops-after-48-million-usd-resale-top-bid-280-usd-report

Idiot paid 2.9 Mil for it last year.

Its starting to dawn on them all they bought literal shit and it will be a race to the bottom.

Just like the "pump" part of a typical crypto pump-and-dump scheme, the NFT scammers start off the scam "pumping" some NFTs by actually buying them with real money, real tens of thousands or even millions of $$$. Why? Cost of running the scam: to sow the seeds of FOMO. To make the participants think that NFTs really have value, that someone else is willing to pay big money for. What's a few million spent on an NFT here or there in the beginning, when you can sell hundreds or thousands of other NFTs for tens of millions more $$$ once the FOMO starts rolling?

That's how all these PnD scams work. It's that ol' saying, "Perception is nine tenths of reality". Fake [the market] until you make [the market]. Once you make the market, leave the poor bagholders holding a bunch of worthless junk, while you leave it behind with millions in profit.

They are doing the same bullshit tactics with Metaverse properties right now. Same scam, just a different medium.

[JayJuanGee]

I still think we see new ath's by q4.

Could be.

We are nearly half way through q2, and surely with the latest of BTC price performance, it seems very difficult for our current BTC situation to even be able to achieve both reversal and then momentum to reach an ATH as soon as q3.. not impossible, but seemingly unlikely.. so it is almost as if Q4 would be the soonest that such revisiting of ATH could happen, if it were to occur.

Huge red dildo, dammit...  

We might get a green dildo next. Dildos come in both colors.

these would be very nice in brass.

Just think of all the brass balls your car would have.

@nohomo

Admittedly, historically, I have purchased various types of after factory (gotta be careful with OPsec, here) valve stem covers, and even if those green and red plastic ones are somewhat novel and provocative, I have seen green and red tastefully (not that having penises would be exactly tasteful) presented within a aluminum form factor. .. I agree brass would be nice too... but then I doubt that brass can be done in green or red - and that would be o.k... too.. for sure, having balls is also  better thing - especially if the item in question is presenting as male.. (cough cough.. all bulls should have balls, even if they are make believe bulls, otherwise by definition, it is not a bull.. and what's wrong with bulls, anyhow?.. we against bulls?  or only certain kinds of bulls?  I am against ball-less creatures claiming to be bulls - just saying)


OT:  Holy fuck... Bitcoinity off-line for 18 hours now, as I type this post.. NOT that the BTC price has really moved very much during that time either... .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Checking the 15 minute chart, looks like a dead cat without the bounce part, it just died.

The BIP 119 ordeal doesn't help either. I'm against smart contracts support in Bitcoin, don't want Bitcoin turning into Ethereum with all that entails. I'm fairly optimistic BIP 119 will be rejected eventually, but it's going to get worse before it gets better.

As of writing this Bitcoin fell off another cliff, from mid 36k down towards 35k USD.

I'm with you modrobert...

BIP 119 has some potentially problematic aspects that have not quite been figured out and/or discussed, and at least the proponent has backed off of his original assertion that such BIP is worthy of fast-track considerations...

BIP119 was presented as something straightforward, simple and ONLY with upsides, yet it may well be a mechanism that would screw up our current transaction incentives within bitcoin in such a way that would end up causing it to potentially serve as an attack vector..

It is seeming as if it may well be better to put those covenants/smart contracts on second or third layer of bitcoin rather than on the base layer.

Guy Swan discussed the matter of potentially screwing up incentives in his podcast from a few days ago.

[Hueristic]

I agree with the sentiment, but WS numbers cannot be accurate for the area as a whole.
Last week some "vitrual' land sale basically broke cough-eth-cough for a day.
Fees alone were more than $100mil.
I did not partake, but saw the info on the interwebs.
I have no interest in pic NFTs whatsoever.

Punters are drying up, that one huge tweet was supposed to go for 48million got a $280 bid. LMFAO

Crypto investor Sina Estavi was known to have bought Twitter founder Jack Dorsey’s first-ever tweet NFT for $2.9 million USD last year. Just last week, Estavi listed the NFT for sale at $48 million USD.

https://hypebeast.com/2022/4/jack-dorsey-first-tweet-nft-flops-after-48-million-usd-resale-top-bid-280-usd-report

Idiot paid 2.9 Mil for it last year.

Its starting to dawn on them all they bought literal shit and it will be a race to the bottom.

Just like the "pump" part of a typical crypto pump-and-dump scheme, the NFT scammers start off the scam "pumping" some NFTs by actually buying them with real money, real tens of thousands or even millions of $$$. Why? Cost of running the scam: to sow the seeds of FOMO. To make the participants think that NFTs really have value, that someone else is willing to pay big money for. What's a few million spent on an NFT here or there in the beginning, when you can sell hundreds or thousands of other NFTs for tens of millions more $$$ once the FOMO starts rolling?

That's how all these PnD scams work. It's that ol' saying, "Perception is nine tenths of reality". Fake [the market] until you make [the market]. Once you make the market, leave the poor bagholders holding a bunch of worthless junk, while you leave it behind with millions in profit.

They are doing the same bullshit tactics with Metaverse properties right now. Same scam, just a different medium.

With this shit there isn't even a cost involved as they are starting off selling this shit to themselves for the initial pump and the plebs are falling for it hook line and sinker.

I'm amazed in this day and age the human race is literally this fucking retarded.

[Hueristic]

Checking the 15 minute chart, looks like a dead cat without the bounce part, it just died.

The BIP 119 ordeal doesn't help either. I'm against smart contracts support in Bitcoin, don't want Bitcoin turning into Ethereum with all that entails. I'm fairly optimistic BIP 119 will be rejected eventually, but it's going to get worse before it gets better.

As of writing this Bitcoin fell off another cliff, from mid 36k down towards 35k USD.

I'm with you modrobert...

BIP 119 has some potentially problematic aspects that have not quite been figured out and/or discussed, and at least the proponent has backed off of his original assertion that such BIP is worthy of fast-track considerations...

BIP119 was presented as something straightforward, simple and ONLY with upsides, yet it may well be a mechanism that would screw up our current transaction incentives within bitcoin in such a way that would end up causing it to potentially serve as an attack vector..

It is seeming as if it may well be better to put those covenants/smart contracts on second or third layer of bitcoin rather than on the base layer.

Guy Swan discussed the matter of potentially screwing up incentives in his podcast from a few days ago.

Yeah, we cant put fungibility on the base layer but sure lets throw a attack vector on there so the scammers can run shitcoin P&D's all day.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Blue King]

Bitcoin 2015 and 2022..

[Gachapin]

Bitcoin has many enemies: shitcoiners (openly cRipple org, and others) and of course tptb.

I would not be surprised in any form, if they attacked BTC by trying to push actually dangerous "BIPs".

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

Huge red dildo, dammit...  

We might get a green dildo next. Dildos come in both colors.

these would be very nice in brass.

Just think of all the brass balls your car would have.

@nohomo

Admittedly, historically, I have purchased various types of after factory (gotta be careful with OPsec, here) valve stem covers, and even if those green and red plastic ones are somewhat novel and provocative, I have seen green and red tastefully (not that having penises would be exactly tasteful) presented within a aluminum form factor. .. I agree brass would be nice too... but then I doubt that brass can be done in green or red - and that would be o.k... too.. for sure, having balls is also  better thing - especially if the item in question is presenting as male.. (cough cough.. all bulls should have balls, even if they are make believe bulls, otherwise by definition, it is not a bull.. and what's wrong with bulls, anyhow?.. we against bulls?  or only certain kinds of bulls?  I am against ball-less creatures claiming to be bulls - just saying)

I agree, this robo-crypto bull statue has no balls, but Wall Street’s bronze version has. Even the sculptor says it should have balls.




https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2022/04/08/miami-crypto-robo-bull-bitcoin-statue/?sh=3c50f0b678e9

Furio Tedeschi cares not a whit about the criticism heaped on his robo-crypto bull statue, which was unveiled in Miami on Wednesday during a large cryptocurrency conference. The chrome-and-fiberglass work pays homage to Wall Street’s bronze version ...

...

But Tedeschi is wondering the same thing as many others. What happened to the bull’s—erm—testicles?

When he submitted the statue’s design to its corporate sponsor, Tradestation, he included that anatomy, he says. “I’m sad to see that they removed them,” Tedeschi says. “I’d designed some huge, mechanical balls.” (Tradestation neutered the creature to ensure it wasn’t seen as promoting a male-focused financial industry. “Prosperity and wealth shouldn’t have any gender,” says Marco Carrucciu, a vice president at the online brokerage.)