Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

$30,000 definitely feels like the $6,000 point in 2018. We’re just here chilling, thinking this is the bottom & we can’t go any lower. I hope it is but if we test the lows I am going to buy with all I have.

Interesting times!

True, but...  $3k was not supposed to happen: it was caused by a black swan event when sort of a flash crash happened and we were back to ~$6k soon. So quite possible $6k was the true bottom. We will certainly never find out. Atm I don't see how we can go lower than $25k without something really apocalyptic like "US bans Bitcoin" which is btw totally possible because of the latest news of Russia embracing BTC. There's always old good zombie apocalypse for sure too...  

Actually, we had a "natural" crash to 3k before the Covid crash, we hovered at 3k for 4 months. Covid was just a short revisit to that 3k area.

The latest drop to 25K was due to terra's dumping 80K bitcoins at once. This is not something that can be described as a market regularity. Technically, it is not a black swan event, but in practice it can be attributed to it due to its uniqueness.

Regarding the discussed 85% drop: it would take us around 10K, while 20K would be a 71% drop. I believe that such a crash to 20K, which from the current levels is more than 33%, would only happen briefly in a black swan event. For example, panic around the world, if God forbid the antichrist putler decides to use nuclear weapons. Or some other stable coin collapses and has to sell tens of thousands of bitcoins.

And here I will say something that I noticed some time ago in connection with the first crash to $3100 at the end of 2018. For a long time we all thought it was caused by the panic with the appearance of bsv and fake tweets that cw will dump 1 mil. bitcoins on the market and will bring down the price to $1000. There were quite a few peeps believing his lies. But then I noticed something very strange. A few days before the big crash, the tether company burned billions of tethers.

Recall that at that time, they were trying to convince the US authorities that the tether was "almost" 100% backet up with fiat. You see, not only with usd, but also with real estate and bitcoins (terra, cough, cough). These bitcoins were bought by the tether company in 2017 at a price between $1000 and $3000 with the clear intention that they will rely on bitcoin to make a profit one day. Once it became clear that this was the case, despite the tether's denial, in order to cover their tracks, they had to burn the tethers urgently and get rid of the bitcoins. Again, you can look at the statistics in glassnode to come to this conclusion, but there is no way to prove 100% that this really happened. If so, however, this was again a black swan event, not a market regularity. This was confirmed by the fact that only a few months later, the price already approached 14K.

In light of all this, if bitcoin is moving within its current limits for a long time, it is very likely that there will be another black swan event that will break the bottom of 30K. But whether it will stay long enough below 25K for everyone to buy with larger investments, cannot be guaranteed. So it is better to buy regularly DCA style.

Really good read and great info.  Thanks.

This theory is endlessly more likely than big holders being so easily manipulated to believe CW's story telling and dump their coins at the cycle low.


If this theory is true, and it's probably the most likely one out there, stable coins created a super crash every cycle since they popped into existence.
Quite some cancerous stuff to BTC and the whole market...

[empowering]

I could mention the Nightmare on Elm Streets that he was in and of course, Lost Boys....

Side note: It wasn't Johnny D. in The Lost Boys, it was Jason Patric.

My favorite Depp movies are The Legend of Sleepy Hollow, Secret Window, and Ed Wood.

Ahhh yeah... mind fart, my bad

[savetherainforest]

Slowly but surely Russia is winning the fight against America on the territory of the former Soviet republic of Ukraine. The question now is if the regime in Washington is so desperate to spill out this war outside this territory?

I don't know what news channel you are watching, but they are lying to you.   

[empowering]

Slowly but surely Russia is winning the fight against America on the territory of the former Soviet republic of Ukraine. The question now is if the regime in Washington is so desperate to spill out this war outside this territory?

I don't know what news channel you are watching, but they are lying to you.   

That is not a difficult statement to make... as ALL of the news channels are lying everywhere and consistently.


Truth is, WE DO NOT ACTUALLY HAVE DECENT, CREDIBLE , INFORMATION FROM EITHER SIDE........


......but I tell ya one thing, I do not trust the western media to call it right, not for a single, micro second......bullshitting about wars is one of the main raison d'etre of the media... and they have consistently, bullshitted, specifically about conflicts, so many times that you would have to be a mad man to take any of their shyte at face value. The one thing I distrust as much as the Russian media is the "western" media.


   

[OutOfMemory]

Slowly but surely Russia is winning the fight against America on the territory of the former Soviet republic of Ukraine. The question now is if the regime in Washington is so desperate to spill out this war outside this territory?

Would you please fuck off to the thread where you regularly jerk off to your sovjet union dreams?
Thanks a ton, asshole.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

So right at the bottom of the Bitcoin market, the MSM makes sure to push headline articles like this:

Winklevoss twins’ Gemini cutting 10% of its staff, saying ‘crypto winter’ is here
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/02/winklevoss-twins-gemini-citting-10percent-says-crypto-winter-is-here.html[/b]

You hear that Average Joe? The crypto winter is here! Sell all your bitcoin! Go spend your fiat instead and make yourself happy! /s  

They probably had too many useless spergs anyways.      .. They need to find their spiritual awakenings and search deep down into their soul for their true calling, just like Covid did for many people locking into their "house arrest cell".   

[BobLawblaw]

I prefer Alien 👽 space invasion.

Anal probes for everyone! What a fantastic idea!

[suchmoon]

And I have never sock-puppetted; those who accuse me of “sock-puppetting” do not know what the term means.

Using multiple accounts AND pretending that you're not the same person - that's exactly what sockpuppeting means.

Some users have alts and don't hide them. That's fine.

Some users have alts, don't publicly disclose them, but also don't stoop as low as posting in the same thread with their multiple accounts or peddling same idiotic rants or bypassing ignore lists or otherwise abusing the privilege. That can be somewhat shitty but generally still fine.

Some users have alts, don't admit it even when caught, lie about it, use the alts to spam the same bullshit walls of text, "muh free speech", etc - that's you. That's the shittiest kind of a sockpuppeting asshole.

[vapourminer]

Depp movies

the ninth gate was pretty good.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

I prefer Alien 👽 space invasion.

Anal probes for everyone! What a fantastic idea!

Still remember your endorsement of Gayniggers from Outer Space.  Great piece !


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-PPhHWzsrw

I'm honestly in awe that YT's woke crowd hasn't censored its title yet...

[death_wish]

WHITE HOUSE TO CRAFT BITCOIN MINING POLICY ADDRESSING ENERGY USE: REPORT
The Biden administration is reportedly crafting policies intended to lower energy consumption and emissions from bitcoin mining.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/white-house-to-reduce-bitcoin-energy-use-report

It's the same old narrative: "we must make Bitcoin use less energy"... Those who advocate this idea cannot see that it is a fallacy by definition. It's precisely that inflow of energy that gives Bitcoin its value.

This is a popular fallacy.  Please help to correct others’ misconceptions about it, instead of spreading it.

Bitcoin’s value does not derive from the inflow of energy.  This gets causality backwards—and it doesn’t even make any sense.

Bitcoin’s value causes its energy usage, rather than vice versa.  The higher that Bitcoin’s market value is driven by factors that have nothing to do with its energy use, the more that miners are incentivized to spend on energy.  This drives up the difficulty—thus closing a feedback loop that tunes Bitcoin’s BFT transaction ordering security, the effect, to follow Bitcoin’s market value, the cause.  To the extent that miners thus do contribute back to Bitcoin’s value, it is strictly a second-order effect—not the primary cause.

Higher market value needs higher security.  Higher market value indirectly pays for the higher security that it needs.  The system is subtle, and it’s brilliant!

A clear understanding of this is important for rebutting anti-Bitcoin misinformation and POS propaganda.  The supposed analogy between POW miners and POS stakers is a deceptive illusion, which I can rebut on many key points.  This is one:  Miners do not have economic primacy in Bitcoin’s POW system.

Miners are essentially paid employees of the Bitcoin network.  Their job is security-critical, so they are paid well; but they are neither the bosses nor the owners of the network, and they do not create the network’s value as a first-order cause.

By contrast, POS essentially means a network by the whales, of the whales—for little retail moon-chasers to pour in their dollars, for the benefit of the whales.


This was the signal issue of the Fork Wars.  Bcashers contradicted what I said; their attempted “flippening” was based on the fallacy that miners have some sort of dominant role on the network, economically and otherwise.  Their theory failed.  And my theory, set forth above, was proved in practice.

If I were wrong about this, then we would all be using Bcash or S2X as the “real Bitcoin” now.

A related key point:  The security of consensus validation in Bitcoin is independent of miners, for all purposes except for transaction ordering.  Miners have a sharply limited function in Bitcoin:  BFT agreement on transaction ordering, to prevent double-spend attacks.  All other security is provided by the Bitcoin Core node you have running at home on a Raspberry Pi, consuming 10W of electricity at negligible cost.

This is not the case on POS networks.  On POS networks, so-called “validators” with high capital stake have total control of the blockchain.

This was just proved in practice a few days ago:  The Terra blockchain executed a contentious hardfork in 10 days (!), over massive community opposition.  To exercise central authority over an allegedly “decentralized” blockchain, Do Kwon and Terraform Labs needed only the collusion of a relatively small group of large, wealthy DPOS companies.  Imagine if Bitmain had that type of power over Bitcoin, and you get the idea of how POS really works!

The amount of energy has to be kept high, and should actually increase, for the price to be able to reach 6 digits and beyond.

Nope.  When the price reaches 6 digits—the cause—then miners will spend enough on electricity to secure the transaction ordering on a network holding trillions of dollars worth of value—the effect.

It is indeed a “closed-loop” system, as you say; but the loop runs in the direction opposite to what you suggest.

[serveria.com]

I prefer Alien 👽 space invasion.

Anal probes for everyone! What a fantastic idea!

Still remember your endorsement of Gayniggers from Outer Space.  Great piece !


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-PPhHWzsrw

I'm honestly in awe that YT's woke crowd hasn't censored its title yet...

Muahaha... found this in comments: An amazing movie, I felt my heterosexuality disappear after watching, 10/10, life changing movie

Funny shit! 

[savetherainforest]

I prefer Alien 👽 space invasion.

Anal probes for everyone! What a fantastic idea!

Still remember your endorsement of Gayniggers from Outer Space.  Great piece !


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-PPhHWzsrw

I'm honestly in awe that YT's woke crowd hasn't censored its title yet...

Muahaha... found this in comments: An amazing movie, I felt my heterosexuality disappear after watching, 10/10, life changing movie

Funny shit! 

Today I found out that John Cena bought over 2000+ BTCiTcoins with money he made from commercials inside China. But I think he kind f^ked that up. He talked about Taiwan being a country. ROFL!      

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[goldkingcoiner]

I prefer Alien 👽 space invasion.

Anal probes for everyone! What a fantastic idea!

Still remember your endorsement of Gayniggers from Outer Space.  Great piece !


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-PPhHWzsrw

I'm honestly in awe that YT's woke crowd hasn't censored its title yet...

Muahaha... found this in comments: An amazing movie, I felt my heterosexuality disappear after watching, 10/10, life changing movie

Funny shit! 

This movie does make you kinda wish for Gayniggers from Outer Space to save you from the women and their tortures on this planet.

[dragonvslinux]

$30,000 definitely feels like the $6,000 point in 2018. We’re just here chilling, thinking this is the bottom & we can’t go any lower. I hope it is but if we test the lows I am going to buy with all I have.

Interesting times!

True, but...  $3k was not supposed to happen: it was caused by a black swan event when sort of a flash crash happened and we were back to ~$6k soon. So quite possible $6k was the true bottom. We will certainly never find out. Atm I don't see how we can go lower than $25k without something really apocalyptic like "US bans Bitcoin" which is btw totally possible because of the latest news of Russia embracing BTC. There's always old good zombie apocalypse for sure too...  

Actually, we had a "natural" crash to 3k before the Covid crash, we hovered at 3k for 4 months. Covid was just a short revisit to that 3k area.

Couldn't be bothered to say it when read this earlier but yes, this was a natural crash to $3.2K based on basic TA and probability. That of a 9-month long descending triangle with a -48% target to the downside. It hit perfectly. The so-called black swan event in 2018/2019 was supposedly based on BSV launch, but as per usual, this was simply attributing a cause to an effect, whereas a drop was due anyway.

PS - Gave you 20 merits for one of yours posts I liked in error. Was supposed to be 10 but clicked refresh to check remaining sMerits so sent another 10. Please redistribute wisely.

(El duderino_is to blame for my generosity)

[death_wish]

WHITE HOUSE TO CRAFT BITCOIN MINING POLICY ADDRESSING ENERGY USE: REPORT
The Biden administration is reportedly crafting policies intended to lower energy consumption and emissions from bitcoin mining.


https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/white-house-to-reduce-bitcoin-energy-use-report

It will be no less than an attack.  Bitcoin screws with the plan.  They need to hobble it.  

It's cute they think they can.

It is an attack.  Please don’t be so complacent.  Yes, they can—if complacent Bitcoiners do not act to stop them!

Don’t take my word for it.  If you admire Ted Cruz, then watch the full video of Cruz’s May 23 speech (the original, not the botched edit you criticized).  Cruz says a few things that I find debatable; but he made some incisive points.

Near the end of his speech, Cruz warned Bitcoiners to remember Napster.  Although his analogy is imprecise due to Bitcoin’s greater decentralization, it is nonetheless a good and insightful analogy.  Cruz is alarmed, as I am, about Bitcoiners’ naïveté and complacency.

cAPSLOCK, Senator Cruz was talking to you (transcription is mine):

[21:50] I think Bitcoin, and crypto generally, has the potential to demonstrate and to generate enormous returns across the country.  But I also believe the government can screw it up.

I’ll say I’ve spent more and more time lately talking to folks in the Bitcoin community and crypto community.  And I do think there is a little bit of a Utopian naïveté among folks in those worlds, who believe in a [inaudible] said, “We are inevitable.”  Well, maybe.  But they may have thought that in China.

Government has enormous ability to screw things up.  And I don’t know how many of y’all have your El Salvadorean passports.  But the U.S. Federal government screwing it up will be massively destructive. [23:02]

[...]

[25:25] ...by the way, how many of y’all remember Napster?  You know, Napster was unstoppable, it was inevitable, until—boom!  It was obliterated.

And so if we see the potential for what Bitcoin represents—if we see the optimism—we need to be vigilant, not to destroy it. [25:52]

Be vigilant.  I second that.  A large-scale, highly organized attack on Bitcoin is not “cute”.


On another note:  I like how Cruz speaks of “Bitcoin and crypto”.  When he speaks of Bitcoin, he says “Bitcoin”; when he speaks of cryptocurrency generally, he says “Bitcoin and crypto”.  His usage is consistent.  He clearly understands the distinction, and he puts Bitcoin first; but he expresses a balanced view that is not hostile to altcoins.


P.S., off-topic and very annoying to me:

Wait... why is Nullius using a sock puppet?  That is nullius, right?

I will not comment on speculation about my identity, but I must object to your use of the term “sock puppet”.  You evidently don’t know what it means.

Sock-puppetry is not merely the use of multiple pseudonyms.  Although their policies are much more negative towards alt accounts than the Bitcoin Forum’s policies, Wikipedia’s official policy explanation of sock-puppetry is pretty good.

Sock-puppetry is the deceptive use of alternate identities to manipulate a discussion.  It typically takes the form of holding public conversations with oneself, creating nonexistent supporters to cheer for one’s own position, creating nonexistent stupid opponents as strawmen to rebut in fake debates, or creating new “supporters” to continue the argument after one’s account is banned (ban evasion).  It is called “sock-puppetry” by analogy to a puppet show put on by one person using lowbrow, homemade puppets made of socks.

That is a very serious accusation.  It goes far beyond idle speculation on my identity—and it is obviously untrue!  I presume that you misspoke.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation