People don’t buy gold to chase moons, to get rich quick, or to obsess over “when $100k?”. (Well, not unless they are idiots. Serious goldbugs are not idiots.) Gold buyers are largely motivated by a desire to avoid losing value; I believe that’s what a “hedge vehicle” means.
Gold’s lower volatility compared to Bitcoin is in gold’s favor, not in Bitcoin’s favor. I would kill for Bitcoin to have gold’s level of volatility.
Too bad that gold's appreciation can't even touch bitcoin's, nor can it keep up with real inflation. Volatility be damned.
What else you got?
Bitcoin isn’t keeping up with real inflation, either. $30k range in January 2022 was a drastic YOY loss compared to $30k range in January 2021, for starters.
Why you picking random dates?
Zoom out a bit.
Who fucking cares about the calendar year - just because mainstream (financial) pundits tend to gravitate towards these various kinds of yearly, quarterly, monthly metrics.
Sure all assets have a certain amount of their own ways of cycling, but it seems to me that bitcoin needs to be assessed within its own terms which might be appreciating a kind of four year dynamic or at least attempting to spot reasonable representative periods that do not overly skew the analysis in one direction or another.
In this particular case, we have some weird shit that happened in early 2020 that could cause us to want to use the timeframe around the March 2020 liquidation event as a starting point; however, if we want to attempt to remove some of the extremes that end up overly advantaging bitcoin, we could just start with something like $10k as our bouncing off point. That $10k seems to be more than fair, even if it does kind of disadvantage bitcoin a wee bit.. so we have 3x UPpity for bitcoin in less than 2 years, and how is that doing in comparison to inflation?
I guess my main point would be NOT to be making overall proclamations about how bitcoin is doing relative to cash or equities or gold or whatever your comparison without putting it in some kind of a more fair context... and sure, no problem if you just happen to want to say something about that shorter period.. but if yo are suggesting bitcoin is not keeping up with inflation.. that is fucking bullshit in term s of what has been going on with bitcoin and also what is likely to continue to happen with bitcoin.. even if the shorter term past or even the short term future is not exactly clear... while at the same time, many of us bitcoiners would not be suggesting that anyone should be expecting any kind of meaningful return in less than 4 year timelines.. and even expecting anything after 4 years might be expecting too much.. even though historically bitcoin has actually never had any 3.5 year period in which it did not end up in at least nominal dollar profits... and we know that if we zoom out and don't get too locked up in any specific period.. or we even look at bitcoin bottoms, bitcoin's price performance is much greater than any selective shorter periods that are ONLY showing the lowest of returns... such as starting to measure bitcoin's price performance by starting form a BTC price top, which tends to NOT be a very representative or genuine way of assessing bitcoin's price performance anyhow.
A few months ago, I wrote a long rant to a friend about how the market is corrupted because traders figure PnL in dollars—everything is dollarized... Years ago, a higher proportion of Bitcoin traders figured PnL in BTC.
Why do you have such a tendency to frequently frame matters in terms of "the good ole days used to be better", but now "things are going to shit?" Asking for a friend.
The fact of the matter remains that there are all kinds of things going on in bitcoin including that we better figure out that its adopters are going to get way more diverse and include all kinds of folks.. from all walks of life .. (do I even need to list all of the ranges both in terms of who they are, what their motives might be, or how they might want to change bitcoin?).
Adjusted to pre-Covid dollars (adjusted for real inflation, not manipulated USG stats), I think we have probably already dipped far below 200 WMA. Maybe even below 2017 ATH. How much food, energy, real estate, etc. did $19k buy in 2017? How many dollars are required to buy the same now?
You are not inaccurate to bring in these matters, but what is the purpose in terms of either wanting to paint a negative picture or over complicate matters?
Let's just wing it and stick with nominal... the details will work themselves out if you zoom the fuck out.
In other words, the nominal 200-week moving average is currently $22,123.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/Why over complicate matters in terms of being negative and striving to exaggerate some kind of a negative picture.. when in the end, many of us already know that bitcoin is doing quite well, relatively speaking.. likely the best asymmetric bet that could haver been made in the past 8 years or so, and continues to be a great asymmetric bet (to the upside, of course).
I foresaw this problem years ago. Sometimes, I hate to be proved so right.
From my perhaps less than smartie pants perspective, you have not pointed out any meaningful or significant problem, yet.
As for gold—I never understood why some Bitcoiners have a grudge against gold. It doesn’t make sense, and it’s counterproductive.
No need to have a grudge.. it serves a similar purpose as bitcoin, except bitcoin is likely somewhere in the ballpark of 1,000x better (but only priced less than 1/10 of gold), so no need to have any kind of grudge.. you can choose how much if any you want to invest in gold.. seems a wee bit unnecessary in my thinking, even though there might be some narrow Armageddon-like use cases for it.. perhaps? perhaps?
Edit: I see
Torque already more eloquently addressed some of my above points.
........we will have 10-12 days of dumping.
I am very bullish after that. .....
Down before up...
Where have I heard that before?
Poll
