Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

Just refreshed my neurons with my passphrase on my Trezor. Everything is as I left it, except for some dust amounts of BTC that some unknown entity has been regularly depositing to my wallet. I guess this is done to "mark" my wallet and track any future movement of my coins. Well, FUCK YOU, whoever you are, your dust will never be moved from there, so feel free to send more...

My advice to cold storage HoDLers: refresh your neurons with your passphrase/PIN/whatever you use to protect your wallet, by viewing your cold storage balance every 6 months or so. You never know when your memory may fail and you end up not being able to remember the key(s) to your precious coins.

Everything's in order, waiting for the dip to end, and for a slow, organic, healthy UPpity movement to commence.

GTCTTWW.
This is fine.
HoDL.

If you have a wallet (Electrum for example, but several others) that can freeze UTXOs than you have nothing to worry about with these dust satoshis.  I find it fun to freeze them as I realize I am creating wasted value for the attacker.

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[goldkingcoiner]

I was not begging for him, I was asking WO if we could help him out and suggesting any unwanted BTC can go towards that goal. Neither am I sure whether or not he is sincere. But why would an old member with so much trust, merit and history on his profile on Bitcointalk be lying about a despicable situation that he is trying to get out of? And all that for a few peanuts? That does not make sense to me. Report me if you want, you're still a jackass in my book either way.

Consistently with the note that I appended at the end of my prior post before I saw your reply:

I am not accusing Dabs of lying about whatever situation he claims to be in.  You are inserting that here as your strawman, goldkingcoiner.

Some people repeatedly get themselves into desperate situations.  (I know this, all too personally.)  Maybe he was telling the truth before—maybe not.  Maybe he is telling the truth now—maybe not.  It is irrelevant to anything that I said.

I said that Dabs has PM-begged before—and now, you are publicly begging on his behalf.  Right in front of someone who is clearly at least as desperate as Dabs, but who is taking the high road.  You’re the jackass.  Don’t you care about my desperate situation?

Incidentally, this is why begging is against forum rules.  Lots of people are genuinely in need.


So, are you a betting man, goldkingcoiner?


Edited to add, for the record:  goldkingcoiner is also lying about his own post when put it in terms of “any unwanted BTC”.  His post started with that, then segued immediately into a general beg.  (Not that asking for “any unwanted BTC” would be ok, but that’s not even what this was.)

Post archived in multiple places (archive.ph, Wayback), because it is drastically changed from the original (LoyceV, backup, more backup):

[...]

You could donate it to Dabs if you don't want it. As he told me, he is in an uncomfortable financial situation and could use any and all help. Maybe WO should help him out?

I said any UNWANTED BTC (In this case accumulated BTC DUST) can go to him as a donation. And then I said he could use any and all help. Help can be in many forms. I am helping him find a job, for example.
And then I said maybe WO wants to help?

I do not see the part where I begged on his behalf. I wanted to do a good thing for a good man with a green trust reputation who has been doing good deeds on this forum for a long time.

Here is Dabs doing charity for kids: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=300631.0
is this considered "begging" in your book, too? Do you report the hungry children or dabs for "begging" for them? Go ahead, report the whole thread.

Were you unloved by your parents and now you want everyone to be as miserable as you?

Edit:

Death_wish, lets see who else can back up your claim of dabs "begging" per PMs in the past. If you are making reputation-damaging accusations without providing witness or evidence, that is called slander Libel. An action seen as illegal in many countries. And I will also not let that pass if your accusations are untrue.

So:
Can anyone other than death_wish confirm prove that dabs has been "begging" via pm in the past for personal gain?

[death_wish]

I was not begging for him, I was asking WO if we could help him out and suggesting any unwanted BTC can go towards that goal. Neither am I sure whether or not he is sincere. But why would an old member with so much trust, merit and history on his profile on Bitcointalk be lying about a despicable situation that he is trying to get out of? And all that for a few peanuts? That does not make sense to me. Report me if you want, you're still a jackass in my book either way.

Consistently with the note that I appended at the end of my prior post before I saw your reply:

I am not accusing Dabs of lying about whatever situation he claims to be in.  You are inserting that here as your strawman, goldkingcoiner.

Some people repeatedly get themselves into desperate situations.  (I know this, all too personally.)  Maybe he was telling the truth before—maybe not.  Maybe he is telling the truth now—maybe not.  It is irrelevant to anything that I said.

I said that Dabs has PM-begged before—and now, you are publicly begging on his behalf.  Right in front of someone who is clearly at least as desperate as Dabs, but who is taking the high road.  You’re the jackass.  Don’t you care about my desperate situation?

Incidentally, this is why begging is against forum rules.  Lots of people are genuinely in need.


So, are you a betting man, goldkingcoiner?


Edited to add, for the record:  goldkingcoiner is also lying about his own post when put it in terms of “any unwanted BTC”.  His post started with that, then segued immediately into a general beg.  (Not that asking for “any unwanted BTC” would be ok, but that’s not even what this was.)

Post archived in multiple places (archive.ph, Wayback), because it is drastically changed from the original (LoyceV, backup, more backup):

[...]

You could donate it to Dabs if you don't want it. As he told me, he is in an uncomfortable financial situation and could use any and all help. Maybe WO should help him out?

I said any UNWANTED BTC (In this case accumulated BTC DUST) can go to him as a donation. And then I said he could use any and all help. Help can be in many forms. I am helping him find a job, for example.
And then I said maybe WO wants to help?

I do not see the part where I begged on his behalf. I wanted to do a good thing for a good man with a green trust reputation who has been doing good deeds on this forum for a long time.

Here is Dabs doing charity for kids: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=300631.0
is this considered "begging" in your book, too? Do you report the hungry children or dabs for "begging" for them? Go ahead, report the whole thread.

Were you unloved by your parents and now you want everyone to be as miserable as you?

Setting aside churlish irrelevant insults and sob stories, here are the facts:

• Dabs has PM-begged in the past.
• You have now requested on his behalf “any and all help”, and concluded, “Maybe WO should help him out?”  Anyone above the age of five who can read English can see what you are asking.

Stop playing indignant, and lashing out at me as you evade the substance here.  You have some nerve, trying to turn the tables like that; and setting Dabs aside, it is very sleazy of you, goldkingcoiner.

So, are you a betting man, goldkingcoiner?

It would go easier for Dabs here, if he were to be a gentleman and step in here to admit that he has randomly PMed out of the blue asking for money before.  Dabs?  I have no grudge against Dabs, though I will if he doesn’t man up here instead of hiding behind you, goldkingcoiner.

Edited to add:  Smooth move.  Begging for money—begging, not only shameless, but with audaciously sanctimonious airs!—right in front of someone who is suicidally desperate for money (name checks out), “unwanted BTC” (lol) or otherwise, but who is taking the high road, not being a shameless beggar, not violating forum rules, etc.

[death_wish]

This was edited in after I replied (evidence):

[...]

Edit:

Death_wish, lets see who else can back up your claim of dabs "begging" per PMs in the past. If you are speaking without witness or evidence, that is called slander. An action seen as illegal in many countries. And I will also not let that pass if your accusations are untrue.

So:
Can anyone other than death_wish confirm that dabs has been "begging" via pm in the past?

You are essentially calling me a liar, when I tell the truth.  You are libelling me.  (Libel, not slander:  Libel is written; slander is spoken.)

You speak without evidence.  You even say some wild nonsense as if you will invoke the law on me (LOL).

I will not let that pass.  You owe me a retraction with an apology, at the very least.

Now, since you are so sure:  Will you put your money where your mouth is?  How much are you willing to pay me in compensation for smearing my reputation here, not to mention being inexcusably rude to me, if at least one proved past PM beg from Dabs turns up?

Stop evading.  Stop accusing the accuser.  And stop lying about me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Tick, tock.  Appropriate actions have been commenced to obtain public proof of Dabs’ past PM begging.

Dabs has a very limited time to confess publicly, right here, that he has a past history of PMing out of the blue (not even to anyone with whom he had prior correspondence!) with explicit asking for money due to alleged difficult circumstances, i.e. begging.  I had no prior grudge against him, personally; to the contrary, I kinda liked the chap.  But if he leaves me hanging here due to his own behaviour—if he doesn’t come clean, then I have no qualms about how much worse this will soon go for his reputation.

goldkingcoiner is a coward, a thoughtless fool, and a stupid n00b.  He rudely insults his betters, and he jumps to conclusions when he has no evidence either way.  Play stupid games, win stupid prizes!  He owes me an apology and a retraction—and he had damn well better put his money where his mouth is.

In abstract justice, he owes me compensation outright for what he said about me above.  But I am willing to make it a wager.  10x odds, since he is so sure—and 10x seems objectively fair; how likely is it that a new account knows something about Dabs’ past PMs?  Not to mention, I really, really want to gain back a whole bitcoin!

At current prices, if I catastrophically drain my resources to buy BTC that I cannot properly afford, then I can escrow 0.1 BTC on a wager against goldkingcoiner’s 1.0 BTC in the same escrow.  I know of reputable deep-green escrows who would be disinterested parties here, who should certainly be acceptable to everyone here if they are willing to take the deal.  I require PGP-signed contracts or equivalent on all sides, with precisely stated terms—well, no good escrow will handle a deal without that, anyway.

Deal?  You seem so sure!

I will not let that pass.  You owe me a retraction with an apology, at the very least.

Now, since you are so sure:  Will you put your money where your mouth is?  How much are you willing to pay me in compensation for smearing my reputation here, not to mention being inexcusably rude to me, if at least one proved past PM beg from Dabs turns up?

Stop evading.  Stop accusing the accuser.  And stop lying about me.

[suchmoon]

Incidentally, I had noticed some of you historical posts that have a tendency to have a tone that happens to be a wee bit less excited about our lil precious than what I feel about myself - in my own self-assessment.

I'm very excited about the technology. I'm not as excited about the red-green-dildo thingies, they're kinda incidental to why I registered on the forum (mining).

I'm least excited about Wall Street buying into Bitcoin (also ETFs and other BS), it's money for the people, not money for money bags, but the technology is such that anyone can own bitcoins so obviously money bags will have the most of it.

But, sure of course it would not be easy to judge your seemingly less enthusiasm about dee cornz without knowing more of your various personal financial and psychological circumstances - and not even that I would want to necessarily know intricate details unless maybe we happen to be in a bar shooting the shit.. and then we might get into those kinds of discussions.. you never know?

The vast majority of my corn is mined, not purchased, if that helps you understand why this whole wall observation thing is just an amusement for me

Or to be more accurate, the vast majority of corns I had were dumped and wasted in the careless 2015s, a small fraction that I still have makes me a hodler, and now that mining isn't what it used to be I turned to buying yet smaller fractions using other sources of income because why not.

By the way, it seems to me that I only name-call my fellow forum members as being too whimpy when they provide me with some level of detail in which I can hook onto it.. hahahaha looking at you Biodom.. (I cannot help myself sometimes)

You, me and Biodom have a similar forum age, so in that regard, sometimes there are some abilities to frame these kinds of whimpy or not matters in terms of something like a quasi-middle of the road $50 per week DCA strategy, which should have gotten such person somewhere in the ballpark of 22.6 BTC, but surely we all make mistakes.. and sometimes we end up having to start over.. like my own ability to ONLY get above 0.63 BTC.. but still I am not talking about me.. Instead, I have been attempting to talk about ways to attempt to measure whether even some relatively modest BTC accumulation strategies may well have ended up bringing some comfortable results.. even when mistakes happen to have been made along the way..

Well, that makes me very not whimpy, if I understand your criteria correctly LOL

Historically, it was pretty damned common for me to suggest that guys and gal just get started with DCA investing into BTC with $10 per week, and since March 2020, I have been more inclined to suggest $100 per week.. even though I understand that some folks are in economies in which they are really struggling even to come up with $10 per week extra cashflow... but we try to do what we can, and generally speaking quite a few normies with cashflow in western societies should be able to reasonably come up with $100 per week or more to invest into bitcoin.

If someone's poor economy allows them only $10, then even if the absolute result is smaller than it would be in a better economy, it's still likely to be a relatively good result for their poor (presumably lower cost of living) economy. However it has to be a truly disposable can-afford-to-lose no-risk-of-mindrusting amount of money. If someone puts $11 in but then have to dump their coins on a dip because they overextended themselves... it's no good. And if $0 is all they can afford, it should be $0.

Other than that, DCA is what 99% (being generous here assuming that at least 1% know how markets work) of people should do instead of chasing dildos. Unfortunately - not specific to Bitcoin but also quite typical to other savings types - many people fuck it up and end up poor when they could have easily afforded comfortable retirement.

goldkingcoiner is a coward, a thoughtless fool, and a stupid n00b.  He rudely insults his betters

I'm still amazed at how much more of a clown you become with each post.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

I put my money where my mouth is.  I put my money where my mouth is—even when I just lost most of my assets, I am almost broke, and I recently admitted to some significant worries about “food security”.

Does goldkingcoiner put his money where his mouth is?

In abstract justice, he owes me compensation outright for what he said about me above.  But I am willing to make it a wager.  10x odds, since he is so sure—and 10x seems objectively fair; how likely is it that a new account knows something about Dabs’ past PMs?  Not to mention, I really, really want to gain back a whole bitcoin!

At current prices, if I catastrophically drain my resources to buy BTC that I cannot properly afford, then I can escrow 0.1 BTC on a wager against goldkingcoiner’s 1.0 BTC in the same escrow.  I know of reputable deep-green escrows who would be disinterested parties here, who should certainly be acceptable to everyone here if they are willing to take the deal.  I require PGP-signed contracts or equivalent on all sides, with precisely stated terms—well, no good escrow will handle a deal without that, anyway.

[goldkingcoiner]

Am I the asshole for wanting to help a fellow long time WOer, who had the courage to ask for help for himself and his family?

I would have even helped someone like death_wish, had I not known he was a bitter person with a disgusting personality. Maybe that makes me gullible. Or maybe I feel like I can place a certain amount of trust into hatcoiners with a long reputation? IDK thats just me.

In my dictionary, begging is something negative when done for personal gain and in insidious ways.

I am sure that from death_wish's perspective, Dabs's charity for starving children is a reportable offense as well. And if I were to take his stupid bet, I am sure he would consider children's charity a form of "begging" as well and nag me for my money until I gave up.

So I am not taking any dumb bets like that since I am more than sure that Dabs has selflessly asked for donations on the behalf of others who were in need.

I am however very sure that he would not go around asking for money for personal profit and malicious intent. Whether on the forum on in a pm. And I am not going to bet on that either, because I don't feel like taking money out of the hands of a suicidal, broke troll.

[death_wish]

Am I the asshole for wanting to help a fellow long time WOer, who had the courage to ask for help for himself and his family?

I would have even helped someone like death_wish, had I not known he was a bitter person with a disgusting personality.

In my dictionary, begging is something negative when done for personal gain and in insidious ways.

I am sure that from death_wish's perspective, Dabs's charity for starving children is a reportable offense as well. And if I were to take his stupid bet, I am sure he would consider children's charity a form of "begging" as well and nag me for my money until I gave up.

So I am not taking any dumb bets like that since I am more than sure that Dabs has selflessly asked for donations on the behalf of others who were in need.

I am however very sure that he would not go around asking for money for personal profit. Whether on the forum on in a pm.

You are so “very sure”, “more than sure”—but you will not bet on it.

To be crystal-clear, I speak of a PM by Dabs asking a stranger for money for himself, not “charity for starving children”.

If that can’t be proved, then I am willing to pay a penalty of almost my very last money.  Upfront in escrow—if you put your money where your filthy mouth is, at 10x for my troubles.  0.1 BTC from me, which you would surely be happy to see me lose since you are so “very sure” that you are confident in outrageously insulting me.  1.0 BTC from you—upfront in escrow.

Thus far, you have cheap talk, and saccharine, manipulative attempts to tug at people’s heartstrings.

Put your money where your mouth is.

[Richy_T]

I'm least excited about Wall Street buying into Bitcoin (also ETFs and other BS), it's money for the people, not money for money bags, but the technology is such that anyone can own bitcoins so obviously money bags will have the most of it.

I look at it as kind-of a trap. They can own more of it, sure. They just can't print more of it.

[suchmoon]

I'm least excited about Wall Street buying into Bitcoin (also ETFs and other BS), it's money for the people, not money for money bags, but the technology is such that anyone can own bitcoins so obviously money bags will have the most of it.

I look at it as kind-of a trap. They can own more of it, sure. They just can't print more of it.

Doesn't stop them from trying with all sorts of derivatives and shit. But I do hope it all bites them in the ass, so "trap" sounds about right.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

I'm least excited about Wall Street buying into Bitcoin (also ETFs and other BS), it's money for the people, not money for money bags, but the technology is such that anyone can own bitcoins so obviously money bags will have the most of it.

I look at it as kind-of a trap. They can own more of it, sure. They just can't print more of it.

I look at it this way.

BTC is open to my worst enemies and my best friends. I wouldn't want it any other way.

[Biodom]

If bitcoin is destined to become worlds money (or digital gold at first), then this bear is where you have to buy the heck of it (not an advice).
I don't know where the bottom would be, but here are some numbers (from the daily closing top of 67566, not going to use 68-69K as it was intraday):

Currently: -70% at $20.4K (to me, it is enough considering that we did not spike, but bad markets could cause it not to be the ultimate bottom)
-80% at $13.5K (numerically, a typical bitcoin bear, but from the blow-off tops beforehand)
-90% at $6.8K
-95% at $3.4K
-90 and -95% are, of course, ridiculous and can only happen if the whole market would be in an absolute despair (like SP500 at 2000).

However, in an unfortunate situation of a deep dive it would clear the slate for a 20 year super-cycle, just like AMZN started it's supercycle after 95% decline in 2000-2001 (from $6 to $3700-a 620X in 20 years). Both bitcoin and AMZN are networks with progressively increasing numbers of customers, dominating their fields, so the dynamic could be comparable.

Several people propose that SP500 would bottom at the peak of inflation. Bitcoin should bottom slightly earlier because it is more forward looking (could be there already or in vicinity).
I will try to catch that bottom and if not, then something close to it.
I like this game better than DCAing blindly. To each their own.

[death_wish]

goldkingcoiner:  Last chance to show, at least, that you are not a cheap talker.  I will not continue chasing after you as you evade—well, not in WO.  You are doing paid advertising for a casino in your signature and avatar, but you won’t bet your own money on Dabs’ personal hounour?  LOL.

I am sure that from death_wish's perspective, Dabs's charity for starving children is a reportable offense as well. And if I were to take his stupid bet, I am sure he would consider children's charity a form of "begging" as well and nag me for my money until I gave up.

Since you are a stupid n00b, I must explain to you how this works:

You and I each transfer money to escrow.  Reputable deep-green escrow, with a long history of handling large escrow deals on this forum (much larger than 1.1 BTC total!).  Someone with no conflicts of interest (including no personal conflicts with anyone involved here).  I have someone in mind—a neutral party, with whom I have no prior COI relationship (and also no personal conflict).  It would be someone acceptable to every reasonable forum member—not one of my pals.  If that escrow declines to handle this wager, then I would consider others.

The escrow takes the deal with a precisely stated contract—with terms digitally signed by you, and digitally signed by me.  Reputable escrows refuse to handle a deal, unless there is a precisely stated contract.

After evidence comes out (or if a deadline passes with no adequate evidence), then the escrow releases money according to the terms of the contract.  There is no “nagging you for money”.  I don’t trust you to pay up, anyway:  That is why I require escrow.  I myself am happy to pay upfront into escrow, so you will have no worries that I renege.  The escrow will have my money and your money.  100% above-board, fair on both sides.

All of this must occur in public, so that everyone can see that the wager is fairly settled.

Bonus:  If you win the bet, then you take away my money—and if you want, you can give it to to Dabs!  Or you can stipulate in the contract that your winning is payable to Dabs.  0.1 BTC to Dabs.  You are so “very sure”.  Are you willing to risk 1.0 BTC of your own money on Dabs’ honourable history?  If you are sure, then go ahead:  Crush me, and get 0.1 BTC assistance to Dabs at no cost to yourself!

You have insulted me egregiously.  You have said you are “more than sure”.  How much of a coward are you?


Approximate terms of wager—pre-alpha version rough draft, with informal language; I would tighten up and formalize it with proper contractual terms, before submitting it to escrow:

I say that there will soon^* appear in public a preponderance of evidence that in the past, long before the current market crash (say, >= 1 year ago), Dabs PMed a stranger with whom he had no prior relation, told some hard-luck story, and requested money to assist himself.  [Edited to add (archive of unedited original):  This was when Dabs was already high-rank, high-trust, and had a long-established escrow business plus long-running charity threads.  Not even something that anyone could even try to excuse as clueless-newbie misbehaviour.]

goldkingcoiner says that’s outrageous—never happened!

If the statement that I have hereby made is true as to fact, then I win the bet.

If the statement that I have hereby made is false as to fact, then goldkingcoiner wins the bet.

^* “Soon” means a deadline—say, prima facie evidence within 24 hours after the bet contract is fully formalized, and escrow confirms receipt of funds from both parties.  (If the evidence is disputed, then reasonable further time may be allowed on both sides to develop a preponderance of evidence.)  If no adequate evidence appears before the deadline, then goldkingcoiner wins the bet by default.

The bet shall be settled upon judgment of escrow, precisely according to the terms of the contract, in a public thread where everyone can see that it is fairly judged.  I absolutely require escrow for this.  All funds from both sides must be paid upfront into escrow.

I offer to bet 0.1 BTC against goldkingcoiner’s 1.0 BTC (10x odds).  I would wager more, but I will need to take upfront extreme losses and risks just to scratch together 0.1 BTC.  That’s a worthwhile cost, to win 1.0 BTC.  Sacrificing and risking to gather 0.1 BTC and then losing it would destroy what little is left of me; it would largely demolish my emergency reserves, to the degree of “I wish I could continue eating”.  I am obviously quite confident that I will win the bet.

Moreover, I think that the contract should also stipulate that the deep-green DT escrow shall give negative trust feedback to the loser of the bet:  To me for defaming Dabs, or to goldkingcoiner for defaming me and smearing me as a liar.  Both sides agree in advance to accept this permanently, without protest.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

This place sure gets weird when Bitcoin is going down.   And since most of the people here have been through a bear or 2 it's even weirder than weird.

[OROBTC]

This place sure gets weird when Bitcoin is going down.   And since most of the people here have been through a bear or 2 it's even weirder than weird.

The whole world is getting weirder, quickly, and in a very bad way.  Weirder than during the last bear market for sure.

My uninformed guess, of little value, is that it's all some kind a cultural thing(s).  The USA and Europe have slid into a kind of cultural degeneracy that is absolutely inexplicable to me (Drag Queens teaching First Graders in the NYC public schools how to apply DQ makeup?  Spend more .gov money to slow inflation?  "Green Energy"?  Corruption at all levels?  Loss of fundamental liberties practically every day?  Begging for increased foreign oil production when we have so much oil (and natural gas) here?  Etc.)

I struggle to decide how best to provide what I can for my grandchildren in such an uncertain and toxic environment.  But, no one can do much to help far into the future, especially with the instability we face.

I think I'll start fitting myself for a Tinfoil Hat.  I have crossed over to the other side.  Looks like some of the conspiracy theorists are right.  "It's not incompetence, it's deliberate"