Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[death_wish]

2. You don't understand the difference between crypto and Bitcoin.

Why don't you explain it to me genius.

Bitcoin is Crypto but crypto isn't Bitcoin.
Crypto is an asset class for a whole variety of assets from NFTs to DAOs...

Hope this clears things up for you...

Bitcoin is crypto, but not all crypto is Bitcoin.  (A dog is an animal; not all animals are dogs.)

Crypto is cryptography.

Crypto is an asset class for a whole variety of assets from primitives such as SHA256 and secp256k1, to protocols such as PGP, Bitcoin, and the TLS symbolized by the lock icon in your web browser.

Wilhelm, I am glad you mentioned that NFTs are crypto.  For example, Bitcoin is an NFT; some altcoins such as Zcash and Monero are not NFTs, although they are technically also called “crypto”.  Those who care about Bitcoin should understand that @Snowden and I each respectively preach something that would deprive Bitcoin of its current status as an NFT.  Don’t worry:  A fungible Bitcoin would retain its status as “crypto”.

This is not so much our moral position, but the forced adherence to generally accepted norms. Regardless of our or anyone else's opinion, AML purity for cryptocurrency transactions has become as important a property as it is for fiat currencies. Most crypto transactions end up in centralized custodial services that adhere to standard rules for the entire global market, in particular, the fifth AML directive of the European Union (5AMLD). Therefore, in a sense, the widespread introduction of AML made BTC an analogue of NFT of the ERC-1155 standard

Witty.  The “NF” in “NFT” stands for Non-Fungible, so you clearly are not so thoughtless about this as some people.

Regardless, everyone needs to be informed that the absurd notion of so-called “taint” is an existential threat to Bitcoin.

It literally means that 1 BTC ≠ 1 BTC.

• Bitcoin’s fungibility is always more or less under threat—in the large, systemically, and in the small, for each user.  Governments and spy-companies draw up blacklists of coins.  Bitcoiners fret over avoiding “tainted” coins—a ridiculous concept which should not exist.  Even if you are irresponsibly apathetic about privacy, you need to pay attention to what this does to Bitcoin economically.

Stop using centralized exchanges.  Use defi.

Hope this clears things up for you...

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[empowering]

[cAPSLOCK]

SEC won't approve a Bitcoin Spot ETF (yet) but they have approved TODAY an ETF to short Bitcoin which is launching tomorrow.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220620005101/en/ProShares-to-Launch-the-First-U.S.-Short-Bitcoin-Linked-ETF-on-June-21

Well you know the old saying...

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

Congrats boys...  we have definitely made it to the FIGHT part.

HOLD.  TAKE YOUR KEYS.

[empowering]

Issa gunna be an interesting week.... when the week actually starts ....... ie tomorrow (yes the whole world revolves around murica)

[empowering]

(In  ditch, in the bushes, in the rain, on recon, shitting in a bag) 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

(In  ditch, in the bushes, in the rain, on recon, shitting in a bag) 

...... yes this is how bad things have gotten since Powell transferred me onto the WEF standard

[JayJuanGee]

so the teens are left behind do we leave the twenties by monday and enter the thirties
or do we visit st the teens again by next weekend?

it depends on what stonks would do.
I expect (at some point) a 20-25% rally in SP500.
20% rally in Sp500 is 40-50% rally minimally in bitcoin, so 17.5X(1.4 or 1.5)=24.5-26K (at least)
A bear rally, though.

You are not completely on the wrong track, even though some of these inferences about correlation are bullshit.

In other words, surely we may well have some short-term correlation between bitcoin and various  mature asset classes.. and why did you not include the NASDAQ in there .. mainstream pundits love to talk about bitcoin's supposed correlation with the NASDAQ.. but sometimes the magnitude is just way different in one direction or another .. even though they are moving in the same direction at the same time... and such magnitude differences should provide some hints and a decent amount of consideration that some care has to be taken in terms of expecting that bitcoin respond in the same way as various mainstream mature assets or even to consider some temporary divergences that end up making BIG ASS differences in terms of "you should have been HODLing bitcoin you dumb fuck" kinds of happenings (not talking about you specifically, Biodom - even though sometimes you deserve to be included in such.. you fuck... (said with a large amount of affection).. hahahaha)




On a slightly different topic.  I was going to edit my earlier post in which I was talking about my own considerations of the 200-week moving average as BTC's historical price bottom in light of some of Saylor's latest comments, too.. but since postenings are continue to happen so rapidly in this here thread, I decided to add this content to this current post instead.. I id not want my edit to get lost in the flood of ongoing postenings.. NO one can keep up anymore, not even bots (not going to name any names, here)... .. fuck you guys posting soo much.. kettle black, again..

Regarding my own personal leverage:  I have posted quite a few times in this thread and in other places on the forum about the value of leveraging in order to frontload your BTC investment when you are not sure about whether the BTC price is going to go up, and you believe that your cashflow is not coming in fast enough for you to be able to sufficiently advantage from such potential UPpity BTC price moves that might happen but are not guaranteed, and also I have never shied away from assertions that anyone employing these kinds of leveraging tactics are responsible to make sure that they are able to service their loans (leverage) under negative BTC price scenarios (or other unexpected negative events that might happen) and even possible extreme negative scenarios.. .. which surely these events can be considered as leveraging of future incoming cashflows and those future incoming cashflows could dry up or shrink, so in that sense, there should be back up cashflow or sources of funds, too in order to service such loans in even worse case scenarios..

Just like I am not going to apologize for my assertion of the historical strength of the 200-week moving average as the BTC  price bottom, I am also not going to apologize for my maintaining a position that the use of leverage can be a very valuable practice if used with a decent amount  of prudence and weighing of the various expected values and balancing those scenarios  in order to prepare for lower probability scenarios coming true in contrast to the higher probability scenarios contained in your various calculations that happen at the time of contemplating whether or not to use leverage.. and if so, how much.

From my own personal perspective, I have used leverage a lot of times in life, and may well have not gotten into decently high levels of positive networth without the employment of various kinds of financial leverage that I had at my disposal over the years... and even in recent times, I have used leverage also.. yet even with my most recent leveraging of bitcoin/cash and various values related to cashflow and other assets that I have in order to attempt to front load more extensively on the potentiality of Bitcoin UPpity.. my total leverage amounts were likely less than 0.25% of my total BTC value.. and even after BTC prices dropped 50% or even our current max bottom of 75%, I am still under 1% leverage in those various standing and ongoing debts that I had decided to employ and I am still servicing and the employment of those debts surely did not end up paying off as of to date because the bitcoin price failed to go up, did not even go sideways as a second best scenario.. did not do a mediocre or reasonably aggressive correction but instead went balls to the wall into extreme beyond even more extreme expectations of a correction..

So yeah, it sucks that it would have been better to have had not employed such leverage, and a main solice may well be that the amount of the leverage in terms of the portfolio value is not really very high.. .. and some might proclaim, why even employ such low level of leverage in the first place.. that would have been less than 0.5%.. how the fuck you going to profit when you are employing such low leverage, and I do believe that there is still potential to profit from those kinds of plays.. especially since I have profited a lot in the past from doing it.. and surely sometimes it would have payed off way better to employ higher percentages of leverage, so to some extent there is some luck involved in terms of ONOY having had employed less than 0.5% leverage, because I would not have been opposed to something like 5%-ish leverage if some decently correct circumstances might have presented themselves to me.. I would have had some difficulties going very much higher than those amounts.. but again, for me it depends on the deal.. and surely some products that are merely earning high interest without much if any logical or convincing explanation of whey would not be the kinds of opportunities that I would have considered as good leveraging opportunities.... so in that regard, there may well be some luck since entering those kinds of deals partially depend upon when, too.. and maybe the amount that ends up getting deployed for such will also be affected by details of the deal.

[eXPHorizon]

The deadliest virus on the Planet is called Profit , the Disease it Causes is called Greed.

[Gachapin]

SEC won't approve a Bitcoin Spot ETF (yet) but they have approved TODAY an ETF to short Bitcoin which is launching tomorrow.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220620005101/en/ProShares-to-Launch-the-First-U.S.-Short-Bitcoin-Linked-ETF-on-June-21

yeah sure... more tools to manipulate the price of the underlying asset downwards... while they avoid any spot ETF like hell.... wonder why  

if a spot ETF gets approved , maybe GBTC would drive the price down short term ...but longterm a spot ETF would take coins off the market and drive the price up, me thinks

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Not sure if true or not, but interesting.

https://nitter.net/otteroooo/status/1538561922282336257

LEAKED DOCUMENT SHOWS #BlockFi LOST MORE THAN US$285,000,000 IN PAST TWO YEARS OF BULL MARKET

Read the second thread on BlockFi, where otter throws a challenge to BlockFi's CEO below

🦦 👇🏼 🧵

Jun 19, 2022 · 4:38 PM UTC · Typefully

[empowering]

Not sure if true or not, but interesting.

https://nitter.net/otteroooo/status/1538561922282336257

LEAKED DOCUMENT SHOWS #BlockFi LOST MORE THAN US$285,000,000 IN PAST TWO YEARS OF BULL MARKET

Read the second thread on BlockFi, where otter throws a challenge to BlockFi's CEO below

🦦 👇🏼 🧵

Jun 19, 2022 · 4:38 PM UTC · Typefully

Otters are cool.


Otter like things that smell fishy.

Otters are cool.

[empowering]

https://youtu.be/5cwyCfdTf6A


FOR YOUR INTEREST ONLY

[empowering]

RECCOMMENDED THOUGH ^^

[empowering]

I agree with much of what he says here.......



Some wisdoms, repeated in this video, which are lore here.


 

[empowering]

...ok ok, lil bit of a circle shill here

[empowering]

He makes a good few points here

https://youtu.be/_QRaO52Jvcg

[savetherainforest]

Issa gunna be an interesting week.... when the week actually starts ....... ie tomorrow (yes the whole world revolves around murica)

How much is that ?? .. 16 hours?      

[death_wish]

SEC won't approve a Bitcoin Spot ETF (yet) but they have approved TODAY an ETF to short Bitcoin which is launching tomorrow.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220620005101/en/ProShares-to-Launch-the-First-U.S.-Short-Bitcoin-Linked-ETF-on-June-21

The ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSE Ticker: BITI) provides a way for investors to potentially profit from a decline in the price of bitcoin or hedge their cryptocurrency exposure with the convenience of an ETF. BITI is designed to address the challenge of acquiring short exposure to bitcoin, which can be onerous and expensive for many investors.

“As recent times have shown, bitcoin can drop in value,” said ProShares CEO Michael L. Sapir [who was recently caught gleefully masturbating with a red dildo. —D.W.]. “BITI affords investors who believe that the price of bitcoin will drop with an opportunity to potentially profit or to hedge their cryptocurrency holdings. BITI enables investors to conveniently obtain short exposure to bitcoin through buying an ETF in a traditional brokerage account.”

BITI is designed to deliver the inverse (opposite) of the performance of the S&P CME Bitcoin Futures Index. It seeks to achieve its objective on each investment day and for no other period. BITI seeks to obtain exposure through bitcoin futures contracts.

Does anyone still doubt that Bitcoin is under economic attack?  They are not even trying to hide it.

After years worth of SEC denials of applications for a spot ETF long on Bitcoin...

Amidst what is, objectively, Bitcoin’s worst bear market since its drastically unstable earliest years...

...we suddenly get an ETF to short Bitcoin.

Lovely.


Love the symbolism:  “BITI”.  It reminds me of the itty-bitty bitcoins I HODL and cherish in my financial dollhouse.


I am against all ETFs.  I recognize that, with permissionless money, I cannot stop people from trading it through the vehicle of an ETF.  Nonetheless, I despise the concept of a Bitcoin ETF.^*  Don’t get greedy and smoke Hopium for the mirage of an ETF pumping oh-so-great institutional money into our market.

Yes, this is me talking.  The one who likes the idea of BTC-PERP, options, and some other derivatives.  I don’t want any ETF.

People who want to invest in Bitcoin should buy spot BTC directly.  I am very well aware that an ETF is a vehicle for regulated investors to gain BTC exposure, when they are prohibited from buying BTC.  The solution is not an ETF:  It is to change the regulations that forbid various types of funds from buying BTC.

But fair is fair!  To approve a short ETF when there is no long ETF is pretty much just the SEC’s way of saying, “We hate Bitcoin!”


To hell with all shorters.

I have a perpetual ire for anyone who shorts Bitcoin.  If you want to short or hedge, short the perp.  That’s what it’s there for.  No actual bitcoins are harmed when you short the perp, because you are not actually trading BTC.  When I say that I see Bitcoin almost as if it were a living creature, I mean it.  Thou shalt not short Bitcoin.

Yes, it is complicated by funding fees; but, well, TANSTAAFL—and if you time it perfectly, then you will be on the side receiving the funding fees as the market catches up to you.  That won’t help much with a long-term hedge, but—well, why do you need a long-term hedge against Bitcoin?

And to hell with anyone who invests in the short ETF.


To be continued.  That is some bearish news—more, more bearish news.  What is the proper reaction to it?

^* So stated with apologies to ETFBitcoin, who is awesome.