Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I have a hard time believing that anyone who holds/controls large sums of bitcoin are going to keep it in places that can be identified as being owned by one person or entity (unless they are a public company or a government that has to make those kinds of disclosures).  

If I were to hold any appreciable amount of Bitcoin (I do not, of course) I would set it up so that it was stored in a multisig cold storage setup (optionally with hardware wallets separately geo-located).  But I would also backup the private keys for each address with <1BTC.  No addresses would have more than, I dunno, 0.7BTC and all slightly different.  But there would be a spreadsheet, created on an airgapped laptop, that was GPG encrypted that held those individual keys... You know... In case.  I would have created detailed instructions on how to access all these Bitcoin (1. With hardware wallets, 2. With Seed Phrases and passwords 3. With individual private keys in the worst case scenario), and trained my wife, and eldest child on the procedure.

But I do not have that sort of Bitcoin stash, so I just hold what I have on Coinbase.

Plus if i DID have that sort of stash?? All those details up there?  Different than what I (would) have really done.

Or not?

Nevermind...

Let's just say that I did not get reckt too badly in this latest leveraging liquidation of the past several weeks, and I was still able to hold onto my greater than 0.63BTC, then how much greater than 0.63BTC would I need to get before it triggered a "separation" threshold concern? 

Within your guidelines, if I were to get up to 0.7 BTC, then that would cause me to end up with wallets around 0.35BTC each.. of course, not the same exact amounts in each wallet, necessarily..

I am pretty sure that if I play my cards right, I should be able to get over 0.7BTC.. but these are scary times.

By the way... fuck off in regards to your name-dropping "Coinbase".. not that you intended to do it (so don't be taking my colorful language too personally like some peeps seem to do, not going to mention the name of bloody mary, because who wants bloody mary showing up merely because it was mentioned three times in a row while looking in a mirror with three screaming school girls)..   I know Jbreher used to name drop Coinbase a lot, and probably just to get little digs in here and there.. not that jbreher is particularly mean.. but he was kind of against going along with certain things, including our use of Stamp as our thread price reference.

In recent times, I have been telling newbies to start out with https://www.swanbitcoin.com/  and they allow you to buy through their cite and also to transfer your coins off of their cite, but they do not have any way to sell BTC through their cite, so a bit of a quandary in terms of one-stop shopping for beginners.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Wow, I didn’t notice something.  cAPSLOCK, WTF?

Coinbase is one of the worst of evil exchanges.  I consider them active enemies of Bitcoin.  They are VC shitcoin pumping central—the worst of the worst for fleecing the newbies by diverting them to buy utterly worthless VC-backed P&D trash instead of Bitcoin!  They are an ultra anti-privacy surveillance company with a side gig of blockchain spying.  Ever since they stopped fighting the IRS, they will basically dump your dox to the IRS.  Insofar as I have seen, they seem to have more horror stories than any other major exchange about freezing user funds for no reason.  And they were even S2Xers.  (I still try to boycott every company on that list!)

When newbies ask me which exchange to use, my #1 advice is “absolutely avoid Coinbase”.

But you use Coinbase.  —But you hate Gemini, which is run by real Bitcoiners?

But I do not have that sort of Bitcoin stash, so I just hold what I have on Coinbase.

But I would be willing to bet QUITE A BIT that the Winklevoss assholes are financially incentivized to support the ZCASH garbage THANKS TO THE dev tax. This is why I will avoid an account at Gemini until there is no other option.

Just out of curiosity, how much would you be willing to bet?

(I don’t know how such a bet could be properly settled; but I am curious, indeed.)

(Edited to add, just to mention this somewhere:  I don’t know why people are so strongly against the Zcash Founder’s Fee.  Setting aside the obvious fact that cAPSLOCK obviously doesn’t know jack about what it is, or what it is used for—just about the principle of the matter:  There are two basic ways to fund such a project:  A premine like ETH, which has a whole bunch of obvious and non-obvious problems, or some type of seigniorage that goes with issuance of the currency.  Or you want people to develop things for you for free?  Gimme freebies.  Work for me.)

I know Jbreher used to name drop Coinbase a lot, and probably just to get little digs in here and there.. not that jbreher is particularly mean.. but he was kind of against going along with certain things, including our use of Stamp as our thread price reference.

jbreher is a bigblocker.  No wonder he loves Coinbase!  Zing!

(Sort of joking.  I know he had a sick fetish for Bcash; remind me, what did he think of NYA?  He irrationally hated Segwit, so I guess that doesn’t really make sense.)

[modrobert]

What's it mean?

hahahaha

CCMF (Chu Chu Mother Fucker) on hold/maintenance.

[JayJuanGee]

If/when Bitcoin gets real privacy, I expect that it will also embrace “selective disclosure”.  That would preserve irrevocable, undeniable, irrefutable blockchain information for legitimate use cases—while locking out the prying eyes of hackers, cyberstalkers, armed robbers, kidnappers seeking ransom, and commercial espionage that seeks to infer competitive business plans from financial transaction data.

Isn't the blockchain information irrevocable, undeniable and irrefutable because, from the way I know it, these attributes and the confirmation that follows broadcasted transactions are the ways in which the chains are ensured of security.

Speaking of selective disclosure, is that really going to be a plus to the blockchain technology?
You know, the only way for transactions not getting counterfeiters is the verifiable nature of the blocks. I'm not very deep into this stuff so, if am getting it wrong at some point, am happy to be corrected.
With these kidnappers, rubbers and others not knowing who is behind an address what matters to a selective disclosure?

We don't want or need undetectable btc in this world.

We need btc that can be hidden until you need to cash it.

 

Without agreeing or disagreeing, what is the difference between these two apparantly contradictory statements...aka "hidden" and "undetectable".
To me, "hidden" is being temporarily undetectable. Isn't it?

no it is fully detectable ie here is an address


https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/1BmZSqwX7GivA88FdqupyVRedzRRPE3chr


it moved coins and very likely the gov knows the actual owner.

and here is another address.

3MR9bkqFVX1f1QxutMu55J3VcvAESEw1Yd

no coin in it and the owner of it is hidden


but its existence is not undetectable.


hiding a virgin address is no big deal.

hiding an address owner and mining on an anyonomus pool will create a detectable amount of coin.

but no issue until you cash it out. if we make cash out impossible to detect the world governments will go after btc like mad.

the idea I can mine 100 usd worth of btc to an address no one knows the owner  is fine the governments clock these addresses and can go after you when you cash it.

but if I mine 100 a day on nicehash to a safe address and move out of my country .

(USA) it is likely I will beat the Gov.the money.

In my case my pension and my wife pension is all fed usa paid. so If I run from USA with "hidden BTC" then show it in a tax free country the USA will assess me a tax and confiscate our fed pensions.

I would need 200-300 btc to consider burning my USA citizenship. They don't worry about escape accounts for most of their citizens . As the escape account needs to be huge to be worth it.

Not many people have 200-300 btc in ownership hidden wallets.

I am having some difficulties with your presumption that 200-300 BTC are needed when entry-level fuck you status is at about 89 BTC currently, and likely to continue to go down.. even though right now does not seem to be the greatest time to be shaving off BTC profits..

By the way, entry-level fuck you status is considered equivalent of $2 million and does presume an ability to passively withdraw at least 4% per year, which would be $6,666 per month - which would not be a bad income in a lot of places in the world.. even for two peeps.

I do understand and appreciate that giving up pensions of two people is a pretty BIG thing to be giving up.. but your number 200 to 300 BTC still seems a bit large - and don't get me wrong, I think that it is a pretty BIG ass deal to go down the road of giving up that kind of income (even though you did not state the amount(s) - and don't really want that information either). 

I suppose one of my concerns is that you framing the escape from USA situation (not that I am advising it) as a kind of unthinkable absent having some ungodly amount of BTC when 89BTC and maybe even quite lower quantities of BTC will be more than reasonable to have entry-level or even higher than entry-level fuck you status and beyond.

[ivomm]

Everyone seems to expect things going 'as before', but they don't....planB fell hard for it.

I think that IF we are starting a new cycle, it could be quite different from the prior cycles.
The amount of front-running could be significant (even more than in 2019) to the point that cycles themselves might come into question.
We have to remember that it is not a true cycle, like rotation of Earth around the Sun with spin axis tilted vs the orbital plane, causing seasons.
The change in the number of coins issued after halving vs ALL coins that were mined before keeps decreasing.
The numerator in (new coins)/(already issued coins in the circulation) is smaller, hence the effect of the new halvings might be less.
At least this is what i think.

It fits the data too: 72X from the first halving to ATH in 2013, 33X from the second halving to ATH in 2017, 7.5X from the third halving to ATH in 2021.
I don't know why the last one was SO timid..the proper number (in case of linear decline) should have been 15X (for about $130K).
Either we would "compensate" for the prior timid cycle and go bananas OR we go for 2-4X from the halving price this time (as per continuing decrease in halving influence).
2X would suggest that the cycles are effectively OVER.

If we analyze the previous two cycles, we will see something that is omitted as insignificant, but important in my opinion. In the bear market 2014-2016, although the price often returned to 200-ish, it is noticeable that the average price rose on an annual basis: 200-400-600. Price 600-750 at the beginning of the bull market is over 3x compared to the bottom 200.

Something similar happened in 2018-2020. The average price rose from 3,100 to 10K along the halving. This is again 3x +. All this is a reflection of the increase in demand, which is shown by the statistics for the new addresses. What was different this time, was that we had a flat peak for months, which was repeated at even higher levels. This is a strong sign that this price will be reached again in the near future. I say this because before there were voices that 20K is an unattainable price, the fruit of some FOMO, which will not happen again. Now things are even safer than before in this regard.

My explanation for the flat peak and the big dips is the following. In the years before 2021, there was only talk of institutions entering the spot market, not just derivatives. It turned out that they were imperceptibly preparing and all at once entered the market. Only the hedge funds that have bought bitcoins are over 1300 as I read somewhere! Many of these companies have bought over 10K bitcoins. And this is too fast depletion of liquidity in the market. Paradoxically, this did not lead to the expected sharp top above 100K.

There were many reasons for this: the elon musk tweets, the panic in Asian markets over the Chinese ban, but mostly the collapse of some projects that were de facto ponzis or had improper collateral and coudln't support the yield. It turned out that these institutions are investors who view bitcoin as the stocks. They do not expect more than 20% profit or loss. That's why they sell, mostly at a loss. Only the Canadian Purpose ETF, for example, bought over 50K bitcoins at a price above 55K and sold half of them at a price of 17.5K-20K.

In this sense, it turned out that the retail investors behind the institutions are the weakest possible hands. This is logical since if someone can't buy and hodl bitcoins in cold storage then he is not educated enough and hence doesn't have the needed will power. This leads to bankruptcies and sell-offs, which unfortunately have not yet ended. This whole fiasco changed the normal course of the cycles, but not completely. I expect more educated investors to gradually enter through the institutions that will follow the example of Michael Sailor, looking at least 4-5 years ahead.

No matter what the price will be before the next halving, investors who will show character and will not sell anything below 100K will prevail. On the other hand, no one will have any illusions anymore and will most likely sell some quantity between 100K and 200K in anticipation of a 50% + drop. So the most likely top will be in my opinion in this range. But there is a theoretical possibility that there will be no new ATH, if things with the institutions turn out to be much worse than we think (like Greyscale going bankrupt), or the other extreme - to go way over 200K and compensate for the lack of a sharp top in the previous cycle. In my opinion, this can only happen with the appearance of significant news around the normal peak, as happened in 2017.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hamza2424]

Zoom Out Think Bigger

BTC All time Graph is here Just look at this, Just 10 years and BTC Made its Hype all arround the world 10 years more then what you can say about it 100k 200k Do you really think that the Heavy Investors Like Saylor are hoing for the 100k not at all they saving the future for their new generation.




Note: Image Source is Telegram Channel

[cygan]

gm folks!
the breakfast of a Bitcoin pleb 🍉🥗
stay healthy and hodl

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

What a great store of value gold is.... not.

Ukraine war: UK joins ban on imports of Russian gold
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61941589


What makes "Russian gold" Russian anyway? When you get it out of a safe do you hear the Sugarplum fairy music or something..?  

I have my Putin vs the west score card ready btw.
An X will mark executed from power. The last one standing without an X wins and gets the chocolate factory.

[ ] Boris Johnson
[ ] Grandpa Joe Biden
[ ] Emmanuel Macron                 v.                   [ ] Vladimir Putin
[ ] Olaf Scholz
[ ] Mark Rutte
[ ] Volodymyr Zelenskyy

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

Coinbase is one of the worst of evil exchanges. 

edit: TRIGGER WARNING

yup i hate coinbase because of their history and actions.

but guess which exchange i tell starting btc noobs who arent very computer literate and even less cyber security conscious? yup. coinbase. for the simple reason that they are legit from a usa law point of view.  it offers yubikey security.
accounts can be transferred to surviving spouse or executor if the account holder dies.
 

ok thats it, haters may now proceed to list the myriad ways They Suck. fine by me as i might be some that im not aware of yet and ive been with them since 2013.

now if a btc noob is slightly better informed i tell them gemnini.

please dont forget here in the usa (land of the free) we have limited choice in a lot of things.

full disclosure: coinbase is a backup exchange for me.

[Hamza2424]

The bitter Reality of this whole world is just this.

[savetherainforest]

Explanation

I haven't looked at the charts for like 3 days now. But good for you keeping me up-to-date Buddy.      


Soo.... I have looked at the mighty charts. And everything might go to sh!t in a day or two.      

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DVlog]

Coinbase is one of the worst of evil exchanges. 

edit: TRIGGER WARNING

yup i hate coinbase because of their history and actions.

but guess which exchange i tell starting btc noobs who arent very computer literate and even less cyber security conscious? yup. coinbase. for the simple reason that they are legit from a usa law point of view.  it offers yubikey security.
accounts can be transferred to surviving spouse or executor if the account holder dies.
 

Not only coinbase most of the centralized exchange is evil. Another top-tier exchange binance is being accused of money laundering through hacking and exploits. I can see why binance has become a hub for hackers and scammers. I know centralized exchange offers many services which make our life easy when using crypto but it gives them more chances to do illegal activities.

There are rumors that Formar Binance's CEO will be imprisoned for money laundering charges.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

For me the most secure exchange is kraken. The best in terms of fees is Coinbase - for withdrawal it is almost 0 fee. The worst exchange without any doubt is Bitstamp. The fee is enourmous 0.005BTC. And each week they send me new emails asking insane things, to prove the origin of my bitcoins and fiat, by sending bank and credit card statements, pool statistics, and many other things. I stopped using this hilarious exchange several months ago.

[Hhampuz]

For me the most secure exchange is kraken. The best in terms of fees is Coinbase - for withdrawal it is almost 0 fee. The worst exchange without any doubt is Bitstamp. The fee is enourmous 0.005BTC. And each week they send me new emails asking insane things, to prove the origin of my bitcoins, fiat, by sending bank and credit card statements, pool statistics, and many other things. I stopped using this hilarious exchange several months ago.

I used bitstamp 1-2 times in 2016 and I STILL get emails from them asking to finish setting up my profile and send them additional info like what you describe.. Hilarious, indeed!