Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

OT...relevant mostly for those from 51 yo and older.

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2022/06/22/bjsports-2021-105360

interesting study and a simple test.
basically, if an individual aged 51 and older can stand more than 10s on one leg, the probability of that person dying within 10 years is 5%, but if he/she can't, then the probability rises to about 30% (highly statistically significant, apparently).

easy enough to check

not sure what would happen if upon a bad test someone would start exercising and/or lose weight, etc.
basically, it is not clear if it is a fixable situation or not.

65 years old

60 second left leg
25 seconds right leg

I will practice and see if I can do 2 minutes on each

excellent prognosis (based on the article data), Phil..knock on wood!

[1715104747]

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[1715104747]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

I propose a new WO poll:

What should be done with the peculiarly vicious breed of nocoiners who get their jollies off seeing Bitcoin low—not from any wish to buy low, but from Schadenfreude and a happy confirmation bias towards evidence that Bitcoin is a scam?

What of the ones who take the opportunity to ooze faux concern, while merrily mixing up BTC with garbage?  “I told you that BTC and Yield Farming and Bored Ape NFTs and all that stuff was a scam.  Wise men saw this coming.  It was predicted.  It was known that this would all go away.  Please take this as an opportunity to turn your life around.  Forget all those scams.  Do something productive.”

I don’t see anything wrong with happiness at the price being low—if you want to buy, because you expect for Bitcoin to flourish in the long term.  (I admit such a thing myself right now.  Not for the first time—by far not; my approach, previously with better planning to have purchase funds, was always “buy when there is blood in the streets”.)

I don’t condemn people who simply admit that they don’t understand the thing, and back off.

I don’t have adequate words to describe the wrongness of someone who is just desperate to see Bitcoin fail, to say “I told you so”—to see BTC finally go to zero as it somehow mysteriously failed to do in 2018, in 2015, in 2013...

Polls are never binding on me.  I don’t believe in polls.  I say “poll” for the lulz.

Worst:  Someone happy that you lost your BTC in liquidation, because that means an opportunity to help you escape from the Bitcoin scam on which you’ve been wasting your life.  A message for your own good, delivered as to a cult member—or to a drug addict who needs to quit self-destructive behaviour:  You don’t see it now; but later, you will realize how lucky this is!  Now, you will be able to see some sense.  The rat-poison-squared is purged from your mind and soul.  Now that you are not invested, you can now stop believing in that nonsense, stop being brainwashed, stop fooling yourself.  Give up on it.  This is the first day of the rest of your life not being tied down to the Bitcoin scam. 🌷

This post involves some rhetorical hyperbole.  But not much.  In substance, not much.

[Richy_T]

My searching/browsing just now turned up some other interesting stuff, about using Bitcoin totally off-grid:  Blockstream Satellite for receiving the blockchain as bulk data—mesh networks for anything that needs two-way communication.  Will not link, because I am getting way out of my depth.  I know some people who do mesh networks; perhaps I should take this as an opportunity to learn.

Now, mesh networks are definitely worthwhile. I was kinda hoping that Bitcoin would drive their development. The internet is far too vulnerable if the feds should decide to get nasty. There are some improvements that could be made to the networking layer (and, indeed, I believe that the networking, along with the wallet, should not be part of "core" Bitcoin) that could get around some of the basic blocking actions but it really needs its own physical layer option too.

[death_wish]

Now, mesh networks are definitely worthwhile. I was kinda hoping that Bitcoin would drive their development. The internet is far too vulnerable if the feds should decide to get nasty.

I have no illusions about Bitcoin’s ability to resist a full-scale, no-compromise absolute ban.  (Those few of us who would successfully evade the ban would be economically marginal, and therefore unimportant.)  I do think that popularizing ways to increase robustness against censorship deters such scenarios from ever happening, by raising the cost of enforcement.  It is, in effect, a perfectly legal way to load in advance a “poison pill” for potential adverse legislation.

By a very rough analogy, compare how American 2A activists buy more guns and ammo every time restrictions on guns are increased.  By another analogy, compare also how PGP was created deliberately to monkey-wrench then-Senator Joe Biden’s proposed ban of unrestricted strong cryptography.  Accomplished facts and high costs of enforcement are some of the most powerful arguments in the world!

I believe that in the abstract, it is the same reason why decentralized Bitcoin survived its infancy, even though USG, et al. shut down previous centralized attempts at independent monetary systems.  If the cost of a ban is too high, then they attempt subterfuge to corrupt it (why did CIA Gavin endorse Faketoshi!? let’s not mention Mike Hearn), and/or try to figure out a way to co-opt it for Wall Street financiers.

There are some improvements that could be made to the networking layer (and, indeed, I believe that the networking, along with the wallet, should not be part of "core" Bitcoin) that could get around some of the basic blocking actions but it really needs its own physical layer option too.

See below link for happiness.  (Why do I respect Core?  They do good work.  Not only on one ticket...  This reminds me, apropos how this discussion began:  Generally, since Bitcoin has no “dev tax” or other self-funding mechanism, I suggest that all who read this should feel free to find ways to help support Core development.)

...although the worst problems were fixed by Segwit and some other softfork cleanups, it is still ongoing to some degree.  IMO, one of Satoshi’s worst decisions was to write the wallet and P2P network node as one monolithic unit, with no security separation.  That’s a design flaw in the reference implementation.  Core has been trying for years to separate these functions...

The libbitcoinkernel Project (bitcoin/bitcoin#24303) is at the top of my own wishlist.  I salute Carl Dong for his elegant, practical, safe and clean approach.  It is progressing beautifully; it will probably take a long time to ship.  When it’s done, it will open a whole new world of Bitcoin possibilities—this is a Core cleanup, but it is useful far beyond Core; as a developer, I am eager to use this for other projects.  It is one of those things that mere speculators neither know, nor understand, nor care about—no really, this is the kind of effort and talent that makes your Bitcoin valuable!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I propose a new WO poll:

What should be done with the peculiarly vicious breed of nocoiners who get their jollies off seeing Bitcoin low—not from any wish to buy low, but from Schadenfreude and a happy confirmation bias towards evidence that Bitcoin is a scam?

What of the ones who take the opportunity to ooze faux concern, while merrily mixing up BTC with garbage?  “I told you that BTC and Yield Farming and Bored Ape NFTs and all that stuff was a scam.  Wise men saw this coming.  It was predicted.  It was known that this would all go away.  Please take this as an opportunity to turn your life around.  Forget all those scams.  Do something productive.”

I don’t see anything wrong with happiness at the price being low—if you want to buy, because you expect for Bitcoin to flourish in the long term.  (I admit such a thing myself right now.  Not for the first time—by far not; my approach, previously with better planning to have purchase funds, was always “buy when there is blood in the streets”.)

I don’t condemn people who simply admit that they don’t understand the thing, and back off.

I don’t have adequate words to describe the wrongness of someone who is just desperate to see Bitcoin fail, to say “I told you so”—to see BTC finally go to zero as it somehow mysteriously failed to do in 2018, in 2015, in 2013...

Polls are never binding on me.  I don’t believe in polls.  I say “poll” for the lulz.

Worst:  Someone happy that you lost your BTC in liquidation, because that means an opportunity to help you escape from the Bitcoin scam on which you’ve been wasting your life.  A message for your own good, delivered as to a cult member—or to a drug addict who needs to quit self-destructive behaviour:  You don’t see it now; but later, you will realize how lucky this is!  Now, you will be able to see some sense.  The rat-poison-squared is purged from your mind and soul.  Now that you are not invested, you can now stop believing in that nonsense, stop being brainwashed, stop fooling yourself.  Give up on it.  This is the first day of the rest of your life not being tied down to the Bitcoin scam. 🌷

This post involves some rhetorical hyperbole.  But not much.  In substance, not much.

Usually guys with any kind of serious poll proposal will tend to be a wee bit more concrete in the formulation of the poll, and surely some poll questions are better than others.

I already mentioned that I doubt that guys (and gal) in this thread have a whole hell of a lot of sympathy for no coiners and/or low coiners, but confirming the answer to that question does not even seem that important.

I think that we have seen quite a few sad cases come through this thread over the years, but overall bitcoin has been a bullish asset and seems to continue to be a bullish asset, so surely guys might judge anyone who manages to lose money on an overall bullish asset - even though we know that some of the corrections and bearish trends can be quite brutal - and really set some guys (and gal) into depression - and perhaps for reasons in which they are trying to become rich (or prevent their lil selfies from becoming poor) at a faster pace than king daddy seems willing to facilitate.

Several of us had been recommending that the entry-level goals for BTC accumulation could have been reasonably set at something like 0.21BTC, and with these low low prices (aka bargain prices) we might be able to temporarily ramp up that entry-level BTC accumulation back up to 1 BTC.. at least for a wee bit of time- unless Torque's theory of the going to $30k and subsequent UPPity from there ends up playing out - which might thereafter again cause entry-levels of 1 BTC to be less achievable.

Sometimes I consider my own approach to be fairly constant with only a few small tweaks here and there along the way, but even in the past 24 hours I made some further tweaks - which probably puts me at about 7 somewhat beyond expectations tweaks since about mid-May.. Sometimes I am not even more than 50% comfortable to share very many specifics in regards to how to characterize the tweaks while in the midst of them (except maybe a wee bit of directionality - that I had done regarding the prior 6 tweaks) - yet sometimes I will also wait to make certain disclosures until maybe several months afterwards to state the extent to which some tweaks were a good idea or not.. or how much I ended up benefiting from that (as a trade off to the costs, if any)...

I do also know a stubborn fuck in real life who has been negatively affected by using a leverage product.. and I have made several interactions, and likely more BTC ends up getting lost (by that person) than we are really able to discuss because people want to be private about those kinds of things, and I am not even trying to emphasize too much of the "I told you so" angle.. even though there is some unstated judgement can be read in regards to our interactions...

In the end, I am not even sure about a fair poll question, except maybe something like:

Has your BTC stash increased, decreased or stayed the same from our drop from $35k (around May 6th / May 7th) to present?  That would be ONLY 3 possible answers, no? 

Do we get anywhere with a poll like that?  I do believe it is better than asking whether we like low coiners/no coiners.

Another possible good question would be by the time we get back to $35k (whenever that is) do you expect to have more BTC, less BTC or the same amount of BTC that you had at about the time of our May 6th/May 7th price drop below $35k?

A problem with this second question is that it involves the potential for a distance between what ends up happening and what the member believes is going to happen.

There might not even be any particular correct answer for either of the questions, except that if someone is in accumulation stage, maintenance stage or liquidation stage then the answer should be somewhat reflective of what stage s/he is in.. .. I mean that whether increase, the same or decrease has happened should be close to matching whether the member is in accumulation, maintenance or liquidation status.   Otherwise something may well have gone wrong, no? Am I not correct?

[savetherainforest]

Spectators be like: Yo fools, is the price going to go down, up, sideways, f^ckways, rightwasy, wrongways??    
But.. some expecting pump, some dump, some capitalization on the second dip at 14K.            


No one knows sh!t. Actually.. Not rly, because Banks are on 'suicide watch' right now, so we will see if they shoot themselves in the foot and try to dump.    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Spectators be like: Yo fools, is the price going to go down, up, sideways, f^ckways, rightwasy, wrongways??    
But.. some expecting pump, some dump, some capitalization on the second dip at 14K.            


No one knows sh!t. Actually.. Not rly, because Banks are on 'suicide watch' right now, so we will see if they shoot themselves in the foot and try to dump.    

Odds are 50/50 then?

[savetherainforest]

Spectators be like: Yo fools, is the price going to go down, up, sideways, f^ckways, rightwasy, wrongways??    
But.. some expecting pump, some dump, some capitalization on the second dip at 14K.            


No one knows sh!t. Actually.. Not rly, because Banks are on 'suicide watch' right now, so we will see if they shoot themselves in the foot and try to dump.    

Odds are 50/50 then?

Nope.. it is 100% certain going for another dip. Then we get to receive capitalization.      





Here...      ..listen to a swang till zen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMuKc-7fvoQ

(because you are probably low in Cow Hoof 9 Vitamin!)

[JayJuanGee]

Spectators be like: Yo fools, is the price going to go down, up, sideways, f^ckways, rightwasy, wrongways??    
But.. some expecting pump, some dump, some capitalization on the second dip at 14K.            


No one knows sh!t. Actually.. Not rly, because Banks are on 'suicide watch' right now, so we will see if they shoot themselves in the foot and try to dump.    

Odds are 50/50 then?

Nope.. it is 100% certain going for another dip. Then we get to receive capitalization.      





Here...      ..listen to a swang till zen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMuKc-7fvoQ

(because you are probably low in Cow Hoof 9 Vitamin!)

How much dee dippening going to be smartie panties?

Is it going below $17,593?

When it going to be happening?  

We get up first before dee dippening come or we go straight to dippening?

Once we get dee dippening, we going to get stuck there or we going to spring back?    If we spring back will the spring back be to these here price levels or some other price levels?


What does grandma think about how smartie you have gotten in recent times?





Inquiring minds wanna know.

[goldkingcoiner]

Spectators be like: Yo fools, is the price going to go down, up, sideways, f^ckways, rightwasy, wrongways??    
But.. some expecting pump, some dump, some capitalization on the second dip at 14K.            


No one knows sh!t. Actually.. Not rly, because Banks are on 'suicide watch' right now, so we will see if they shoot themselves in the foot and try to dump.    

Odds are 50/50 then?

Nope.. it is 100% certain going for another dip. Then we get to receive capitalization.      

[savetherainforest]

Spectators be like: Yo fools, is the price going to go down, up, sideways, f^ckways, rightwasy, wrongways??    
But.. some expecting pump, some dump, some capitalization on the second dip at 14K.            


No one knows sh!t. Actually.. Not rly, because Banks are on 'suicide watch' right now, so we will see if they shoot themselves in the foot and try to dump.    

Odds are 50/50 then?

Nope.. it is 100% certain going for another dip. Then we get to receive capitalization.      

^
Just put a sharp dip like a nail in that chart.                         

[shahzadafzal]

Dear bitcoin please stay in 20s for 4-5 days more. I want to top-up on my next salary.

[ImThour]

Mfer calls himself inventor of Bitcoin and says all the Bitcoin are already issued in 2009 itself. 


https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6946865732672495616/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Has your BTC stash increased, decreased or stayed the same from our drop from $35k (around May 6th / May 7th) to present?  That would be ONLY 3 possible answers, no?

[...]

This is a nice poll suggestion.

[death_wish]

In the end, I am not even sure about a fair poll question, except maybe something like:

Has your BTC stash increased, decreased or stayed the same from our drop from $35k (around May 6th / May 7th) to present?  That would be ONLY 3 possible answers, no? 

AlcoHoDL beat me to this, as I was beginning to write something (with overly long analysis) about how the same poll should then be held again, whenever we get back to $35k.  At that point, the “decreased” option will logically mean only two things:  Either you were crazy to leverage your BTC, or you were stupid to mindrust it.  “Sell the dip!” seems to be a popular approach to retail investing, the flipside of FOMO.

Needless to say, few if any people in that category will give an honest answer.

(You had a good point yourself, but I think you missed my point.  I wasn’t talking about people who lost their coins.  I was talking about die-hard nocoiners—nevercoiners.)

Mfer calls himself inventor of Bitcoin and says all the Bitcoin are already issued in 2009 itself. 


https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6946865732672495616/

I was about to say something snide about how nobody gives a hoot or wants to see what he says, but then I realized it is always good to raise awareness of this issue.

Relevant:  So, you want to get sued by a scammer? (earlier thread).

I don't see how we little people can oppose what Faketoshi does - and we all know that he can't possibly be Satoshi even in some parallel universe

The best tool we have is mockery.

Among well informed people they look at Wright and see an obvious fraud-- so they turn away: nothing to see here.  But people who don't know better are fooled. Reliably.  They might believe a "lite" version of his scam-- like that he was involved and was exaggerating his involvement, or that he wasn't satoshi but really had 111k BTC that was stolen from him---- and a big part of that is because Wright's paid press activities are substantial, while the opposition is mostly silent and uncoordinated.

We need to all go out and make sure that the whole world knows that wright and his congames are jokes.