In the end, I am not even sure about a fair poll question, except maybe something like:
Has your BTC stash increased, decreased or stayed the same from our drop from $35k (around May 6th / May 7th) to present? That would be ONLY 3 possible answers, no?
AlcoHoDL beat me to this, as I was beginning to write something (with overly long analysis) about how the same poll should then be held again, whenever we get back to $35k. At that point, the “decreased” option will logically mean only two things: Either you were crazy to leverage your BTC, or you were stupid to mindrust it. “Sell the dip!” seems to be a popular approach to retail investing, the flipside of FOMO.
I think that some of my various overall attempts at making points was to indicate that very BIG BTC price moves can provide opportunities to assess how well your own actions are reflecting your goals in terms of where you are at, and for sure, there can be more opportunities for luck and also mistakes to show themselves during such BIG BTC price move periods.
Sometimes it is very clear which stage we are in accumulation, maintenance, liquidation, yet if our BTC holdings have increased - and of course some other aspects of our individual circumstances may well have substantially and materially changed, then the overlap regarding where we consider ourselves to be - may well create some ambiguities regarding how to match what we are doing to our finances and psychology.
I am thinking about another example too, and that is if we establish a somewhat strict practice regarding what we do and to follow some guidelines, principles and hunches regarding when we might be able to deviate from such preferred practices, then there might be some times in which our deviation puts us into different circumstances - which will thereafter motivate us in some ways that might cause us to consider whether or how much we might deviate from our ideas of best practices.... so for example, the decision to cash out a bunch of BTC (let's say $500k - just for some concreteness.. which is going to be 50% of the target amount to have by July/August to close the deal) at $40k-ish in order to put down a deposit and to prepare for having cash for the whole purchase. When the BTC price shoots down by 50%, there's a bit of a dilemma about whether to continue to cash out and continue with the deal.
If we decide to cancel the deal because we do not want to have to sell another $500k in BTC at a 50% discount (which both below the 200-week moving average but surely is not even clear about where is the BTC bottom exactly), there is also another dilemma about whether to use the amount that we already cashed out in order to buy more BTC or to just sit on the cash in order to really feel comfortable with what to do with that cash - and part of my point is that quite a bit of the dilemma came from the mere fact of having had cashed out a bunch of BTC at $40k.. but the circumstances changed in such a way that our options have changed.. and put us in a position that was different from our usual practices, but we can still use our logic, risk management and just probability calculations to figure out how to proceed forward - in spite of the changed circumstances.
Needless to say, few if any people in that category will give an honest answer.
There could be some value in terms of any poll that is created to inspire participation, provoke thought and to attempt to motivate accurate answers.. Sure, there are always going to be liars, but why is it going to matter? Because I would postulate that the most important consideration is attempting to use such poll exercise to think about our own situations and whether we might need to tweak anything in our own practices in terms of whether we are matching our behaviors with what we believe that we are trying to achieve.
We can take a snapshot and already know right now, whether we have more BTC at this time as compared to what we had on May 6/7.. so that should be a relatively easy answer. Surely, there might be some guys who still have not closed any position that that they might have taken, so they might be holding onto cash (let's say $68k - that was based on 2 BTC that they cashed out at $34k) and considering that cash could have a BTC value of 3.3 BTC at current prices ($20.6k-ish), but they have not executed the buy because they are also considering that the $68k could represent 4 BTC if they wait for the BTC price to drop to $17k, which may or may not end up happening, but still causing them some dilemma in terms of calculating whether they currently have more BTC than they had on May 6/7 or not.
As you already, acknowledged, no matter how we end up formulating our calculation of present BTC quantity and compare that to May 6/7, there is a certain amount of locking in that we can do, even if there might also be various ways to calculate - even if we might be holding some dollars in a kind of "waiting to deploy" status.
And yeah, you have also identified way more concreteness that is going to exist to compare how many BTC that we had on May 6/7 when BTC crossed below $35k as compared with how much BTC we will have at the snapshot time in which BTC prices cross back above $35k (presuming that they do at some point,
a little reference to proudhon's lil stick). No one should be wedded to any presumption that there still might be some unresolved orders in existence at $35k.
Let's say that
a hypothetical someone (let's refer to him as MLPS - My Lil Precious Seeker) feels an overwhelming compulsion to attain 1 BTC and to be able to HODL onto that BTC forever and ever in a kind of cold storage of my lil precious, yet at the same time MLPS has a lot of fucked-upped-ness in his financial circumstances - for reasons. I am not encouraging gambling, but just attempting to suggest that sometimes there could be rational circumstances that also involve luck, and MLPS ends up running into some luck based on some of his past work/interactions with peeps in which he had not burnt all his bridges, so accordingly, he receives a solid contractual offer to perform x, y and z work over the next year and he will receive $64k to carry out such work but payments are mostly going to come at the back end... .but in any event, MLPS is able to get a loan to front load his investment in BTC that results in $32k that he can used to buy BTC, and so therefore, he concludes that he is going to buy 1.5 BTC at $21k, and that he is going to reach his goal to always have 1 BTC no matter what, and at the same time, he knows his own situation, that he is going to have to shave off that additional 0.5 BTC at various points in time in order to just to manage his finances, so when the BTC price ends up going up to $35k (whenever that is), MLPS knows for sure that he has 1 BTC no matter what, but he also has to sell some parts of the 0.5 BTC that was a kind of "over investment", and perhaps by the time BTC prices get to $35k, he had already shaved off 0.1 or 0.2 of that overinvested BTC.
The above examples/descriptions are intended to outline some of the dilemmas that some of us (including but not limited to yours truly) can experience when we are attempting to figure out our BTC valuations, so I can look at my BTC valuations and that is relatively easy, and I can also look at my projection of what my BTC valuations will be at $35k and even give you a number right now regarding what they are projected to be, if the BTC price goes straight up and I do not get any opportunities to change my sell orders on the way up. At the same time, we can appreciate that it is NOT too often that the BTC price goes straight up, so when I project how many BTC I anticipate having at $35k, I can proclaim with pretty decently strong conviction that my estimate for $35k is a wee bit less than what I expect it to actually be because the downs and ups along the way is going to cause me to sell and buy back along the way, and by the time we get to $35k BTC I have more than my original projection but surely less than the amount that I had at $21k (it's built in)
I will answer the various polls early for my lil selfie.. which is that even though right now I have more BTC than I had at $35k (by about something like 1.5%), my current projections show that I am likely to have about 0.5% less BTC at $35k as compared to when we were last there on May 6/May 7th-ish.
If I were clearly in a pure BTC accumulation mode (like I was in almost all of 2014), then for sure I would have quite a bit more BTC on the second time around to $35k. In 2015, 2016 and even early 2017, I was in a hybrid BTC accumulation/maintenance mode that leaned towards BTC accumulation.. which likely would have ended up contributing to similar results as the accumulation mode, but just not as strong as a pure accumulation mode stage.
Probably since about early 2019 - on a personal level, I have been having more leanings towards being in some kind of a BTC liquidation mode.. and I had even considered that so long as BTC prices were above $5k, I am not going to be so concerned about if I am not accumulating BTC.. and just let the chips fall where there will in terms of my BTC being able to fund itself for ever.. using withdrawal limits of 1% per quarter...
Anyhow, I talk about BTC accumulation as a kind of target place that people need to attempt to achieve, because it is very difficult to get to maintenance and/or liquidation stages of an investor's/HODLer's BTC journey without going though a decent period of BTC accumulation first. And, don't get me wrong.. I still do accumulate from time to time.. beyond just using money already in the system.. and I have revealed some of my instances of getting into that kind of mode for anyone who might have noticed how I framed some of my strategies and/or changes in strategies (called tweaks, no?)
I suppose also a part of my point is that there can be quite a bit of curiosity in regards to how the various projections might end up differing from the snapshots, and even I can go back and look at my old snapshots that contained projections, even using $20k as a reference point. Where was my BTC/investment portfolio at the various times that BTC touched upon $20k (starting in late 2017 of course).. how has my place changed? how have my projections changed? Have I put more value in versus taking it out?
I have heard some seemingly sophisticated BTC investing folks saying that
no matter what they believe that their BTC holdings should be going up during time, and personally, I doubt that as being a kind of realistic goal that I want to achieve, but surely I see how it may well be a prudent/practical goal for some other folks. For example, I can project what if BTC prices go out to $1 million, $5 million or $10 million, and why the fuck would I need more BTC in those circumstances? I am just not at that stage in my life or even wanting to have aspirations that go in that direction If you consider the matter..
Let's create
another hypothetical person.. Maybe we can call him
AE (Already established) AE already reached way more than double entry-level fuck you status, and currently AE has 200 BTC
(I am not proclaiming to have that amount nor am I proclaiming to have anything more than 0.63 BTC).. but anyhow.. let's go with the example a wee bit... If AE already reached double fuck you status, and the BTC price is currently $21k, then why the fuck does AE need to have more BTC (and to continue build his quantity of BTC)? Let's describe an extreme in order that the directionality of the point might be better understood, and let's say that the BTC price were to go to $10 million? If AE merely maintains his same quantity of BTC at 200, then AE is going to have $2 billion in BTC, so why the fuck does he need more BTC in those circumstances- especially when AE had already established $2million to have had been his entry level fuck you status. Sure AE is free to increase his standard of living and change some of his goals, but is there any need, practicality or prudence that AE has to up his monetary aspirations by 1,000x when he already established his fuck you status as being $2 million.. fuck that nonsense.. maybe he can update to 10x.. such as $20 million, but why does he feel that he needs to be greedy and never get enough? why 1,000x? In some cases, more is not always more.. and it may not even be reasonable, prudent or practical from a personal aspirational level, and in the end makes little to no sense to me that a realistic, prudent and/or practical goal would be to continue to increase BTC no matter what, especially since we already know and appreciate BTC as a very asymmetric bet to the upside. and very volatile as well...
yeah some people want to aspire to be the richest person in the world or other obsessions of power.. and sure, they can do that if they wish, even though I doubt that it is even close or necessary for the vast majority of peeps to get into that kind of "dominate the world" childish ego-driven mentality
If the BTC price goes to $10 million, then AE could have 1/200th the amount that he has currently (presuming holding 200 BTC, which would be 1 BTC), and AE would still end up having 5x entry-level fuck you status. So even if AE retains, 1/20th the amount of his current 200 BTC (which would be 10 BTC) at $10 million, then that is still $100 million and 50x his entry-level fuck you status.
Accordingly, even though AE shaves BTC off of his holdings all the way from now up to $10 million, he ends up having way fewer BTC than his current 200 BTC stash, but if he still has 10 BTC by the time BTC reaches $10 million, he still has 50x his entry-level fuck you status, so I suppose part of my point is that I have difficulties understanding why on a personal level AE should feel any kind of compelling need to continue to increase his BTC stash while BTC prices are likely to continue to go up exponentially into the future.. when his needs continue to get met and exceeded with a much more modest, prudent and practical approach to his BTC wealth management, even if he continues to shave off decent amounts of BTC all the way up the price growth projections into the future.... and even accounting for nothing being guaranteed, either.
(You had a good point yourself, but I think you missed my point. I wasn’t talking about people who lost their coins. I was talking about die-hard nocoiners—nevercoiners.)
Well maybe they exist, but why do we need to have very many concerns about them? Sure there are a lot of folks who will die without ever getting any BTC.. and sucks to be them.. and surely any of us who know about BTC are better off than those folks, even if we fuck up a whole hell of a lot, so in several regards, even if some BTC HODLers/Accumulators fuck up a lot, they are still going to do much better than the no coiners, at least in terms of improving their own conditions..
So the no coiner/never coiner guy with $10million and who earns around $400k per year on his passive income from his $10 million believes that he is not really going to care that much of his $400k per year is worth only $100k per year in real terms after 10 years, but at some point, such no coiner may well start to notice that the BTC HODLer is catching up, even if the BTC HODLer might never catch up to the no coiner.
Nonetheless, the BTC HODLer/accumulator is likely better off on his own terms, even if he never catches up to the nocoiner, and the impoverished BTC HODLer who buys BTC at $10 per week or $5,200 per year might be able to reach a pretty decently high income level in 10 to 20 years, and one of the advantages that the BTC HODLer/Accumulator has is that his passive income is growing from his placement of the value into BTC...
Poll
