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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (8.9%)
8/4 - 16 (12.9%)
8/11 - 8 (6.5%)
8/18 - 6 (4.8%)
8/25 - 8 (6.5%)
After August - 74 (59.7%)
Total Voters: 124

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26487981 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Hamza2424
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June 30, 2022, 08:18:08 AM

Global inflation rates:

🇺🇸 - 8.6%
🇪🇸 - 8.7%
🇳🇱 - 8.8%
🇬🇧 - 9.1%
🇧🇷 - 11.7%
🇵🇱 - 13.9%
🇷🇺 - 17.1%
🇵🇰 - 30%
🇦🇷 - 60.7%
🇹🇷 - 73.5%
🇻🇪 - 167%

This is absolute Distruction in our Region and I'm worried about aseets Devaluation because with Inflation the assets real time value also got effected still assets are better to hold then Currency.

#Bitcoin is the escape hatch.


death_wish
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June 30, 2022, 08:22:44 AM

I am waiting for the BTC price to go below $1,000..

Proof:  “JayJuanGee” is proudhon’s alt.

=

Quote ridiculously cherry-picked, for comedic effect.  For the record, my sarcasm meter pegged here.
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June 30, 2022, 09:03:32 AM


Explanation
death_wish
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June 30, 2022, 09:04:16 AM


Re funding for Core development:

The major substance of your post proposes what, in substance, would be an endowment.  It is a good idea.  However, it would require much more sophistication (and accordingly, higher administrative overhead).  I had been thinking more simply:  Raise money, spend it.  I will think about this further.  I do not foresee immediate action on it, anyway.  Besides any other questions, jumping into such a project in a bear market with no advance planning is not a very good approach; I’m not the one saying so.

Yeah, we might have been talking past each other a wee bit, and I have spent some time grappling with some of my own considerations about how to set up such a fund, and I was thinking about starting a thread on the topic - or alternatively to post in my already existing thread.. but it might well be a topic that would be better suited for its own thread.

I was initially considering setting up the thread with a hypothesis of having a fund that would be initially seeded with 100 BTC, so the ideas would relate to my ideas about how much can be used from the funds on a regular basis to support the administration of the funds and also the sending out of funds to target projects.  Of course there might be some flexibility in the amount of funds that would be in the seed round and if the fund might be able to able to receive additional funds from private sources or .. but the original assumption is that the fund is established by a private donor or a closed group that already grants full plenary authority to the fund administrator whether hypothetically that administrator would be me or whether it could (or should) be contracted out.  

My initial thoughts about any extra funds that would be accepted would involve NDAs and even legal disclaimers and granting full discretion to the fund administrator regarding the distribution of donations, so of course, when we get into those kinds of possible receipt of outside funds, it is probably better to establish a track record and a set of clear distribution standards, criteria (and practices) first, as we already referred to some of these ideas.  I have been thinking about variations of this for more than 2 years, so it is not like I have really gotten into the nitty gritty details of working towards carrying it out.

You have some interesting ideas, here and subsequently.

As you understand, if I merely wanted to talk hypothetically, I could chit-chat as much as I wanted in public; but then, there would be no point.  I am taking this idea seriously—perhaps not for immediate implementation, but maybe to consider for a mid- to long-term goal.  I appreciate this discussion.  I read this post carefully.

[...]  Satoshi himself would be unable to obtain the position that Wladimir has with MIT-DCI.  [...]  This is not merely a theoretical concern—not cypherpunk “paranoia”!

[...] I thought that square had one developer who was ONLY a pseudonym..

I don’t know.  Maybe, but it sounds doubtful to me.  I have had some negative experience attempting to apply for grants anonymously from legally constituted corporate entities (whether for- or nonprofit)—not in Core, not even in Bitcoinland, but I would anticipate similar issues.  I would be pleased to be wrong about that.  Nowadays, it’s gotten so bad that with some exceptions, it seems that even most whitehat security bug bounties cannot be claimed without a full KYC doxing (LOL!).

[...] and surely some of the discussions of the details of how to set them up might be less valuable to carryout in a public thread or even through private messages but  instead through more secure communication channels that hopefully are sufficiently comfortable (and secure) for everyone including funding sources and funded persons/pseudonyms...

True.

I will keep thinking about this.



On another note:

I know that there are some members who really have personal issues with me, and sometimes they will harbor those resentments for a long time, even for years, and then come out with a bunch of anger posts... hahahaha it is kind of funny how some folks can hate certain peeps on the interwebs so much.

With your way of seeing things, on the flipside, you can never have some of the positive life experiences that I have (very rarely) had in cypherspace.  If you are too detached, you don’t much care either way—you can never make much of a deep connection with anyone.  I am not only saying this now:  I have had that thought about you before, years ago.  It hit me when you declared somewhere, with a distinctly absolutist attitude, that “nobody gives a shit about you on the Internet” (here paraphrasing from recollection).  Well, it is true in the overwhelming majority of cases.  But with your outlook, you will miss the one-in-a-million outliers.

If someone were to offer me a billion dollars right now to give up some of those positive life experiences, I would tell him to take his money straight to hell.  That is not hyperbole.  Some things are priceless.

On the negative side, I dislike permitting those who are beneath me drain my time and energy on nonsense.  Whether IRL or online, I oughtn’t trouble myself too much to swat a troublesome fly, if it is inconvenient.  Most of all, I must mind the proverb about wrestling with a pig.  It is best to take the high road, to focus on important things, to comport oneself with poise and professionalism.  But I never forgive, if someone seriously crosses me—never forgive, never forget.  Despicable characters tend eventually to lay out enough proverbial rope to hang themselves, anyway.
BitcoinBunny
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June 30, 2022, 09:17:18 AM
Last edit: June 30, 2022, 09:34:51 AM by BitcoinBunny
Merited by Torque (2), empowering (2), cAPSLOCK (1), DdmrDdmr (1), UnDerDoG81 (1), somac. (1), modrobert (1)

Upside down world:

  • BTC keeps going lower even in the face of ridiculous fiat inflation
  • Fiat inflation is supposedly Putin's fault even though the west printed ridiculous sums of fiat out of thin air for years.
  • The G7 / NATO and its silent allies actively want to have a cold war
  • Ursula von der Lies joins the G7 even though she doesn't represent a country and no citizen was able to vote for her and they continue to talk about how we must
    impose democracy on Russia
  • You vote conservative in your country and you keep getting bashed with ridiculous green policies and increased taxes
  • Clowns and demented imbeciles are our leaders
  • Propaganda media outlets keep bashing Russia whose leader talks far more sense than any of our pathetic clowns
  • The Russian ruble keeps strengthening despite suicide sanctions and restrictions. All other currencies against the dollar are deflating even faster than the dollar itself.
  • Western leaders promote economic migrants even though there is supposedly no space for us already (see increased taxes) and fuels illegal people trafficking. immigration has been sold as a virtue signalling option to supposedly help the poor in other countries. The reality is the real poor in those countries can never escape. Only the strongest and usually they are young men.
  • Upside down policy example Netherlands #1: Farmers need to close their business as they are too polluting. The entire country was founded on farming!
  • Upside down policy example Netherlands #2: You will soon have to pay for driving each kilometre, even if you drive abroad. Who in their right mind thinks that's fair AND you will still need to get an EV no doubt.
  • Upside down policy example Netherlands #3: You will need to install a heat pump because gas is simply too polluting even though much of the Dutch economy was built on using and exporting gas.
  • Upside down policy example Netherlands #4: The leader literally said "Ukraine's war is our war." even though citizens firmly rejected closer association with Ukraine in a referendum years ago.
  • Upside down policy example Netherlands #5: Gas and everything is too polluting and citizens will have to pay but in a general sense because of the sanctions on importing Russian gas and the evil Adolf Putin burning coal will be fine if required.
  • The general consensus appears to be carry on and just do more of the same of the failed policies.
  • The CIA appears to be in control of the USA and in fact much of the western world. Puppets in the form of diaper Biden and Kameltoe Harris appear to be so incredibly stupid, pathetic with race baiting and ultimately hypocritical, this bad leader joke thing is just sad to watch for me. Boris Johnson is no better.

Unbelievable.

 Roll Eyes

cygan
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June 30, 2022, 09:35:20 AM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 04:33:43 PM by cygan
Merited by El duderino_ (15), Torque (1), empowering (1)


death_wish
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June 30, 2022, 09:55:05 AM

Gambler’s Fallacy

Most blocks take nowhere near 10 minutes to arrive; the average of the exponential distribution is almost meaningless to everyday-life usage questions of “how long will this take?”, and the exponential distribution generally defies human intuition.
I still like my rendition, even though D_W established that "technically" my framing is not accurate.  I still like it.. because it is fun.. tick tock next block.

It is classic Gambler’s Fallacy.

No, I am not trying to be persnickety.  The Bitcoinland urban legend of “blocks take about 10 minutes” is Gambler’s Fallacy:  A practical expectation that you are “due” for a win based on a statistical average.

Don’t forget that Bitcoin’s mining algorithm is a giant lottery—and that on the flipside, many Provably Fair crypto-casinos use SHA2 to roll virtual dice.  Waving hands over some important technical differences, it is useful to keep that in mind.

In practice, although they are discrete and not continuous processes, games of chance that pick winners based on a uniform distribution can be usefully modelled as Poisson processes.  Wins accordingly have a statistically “expected” arrival time based on the average of an exponential distribution—just like Bitcoin’s 10-minute target for blocktimes, a targeted average calculated over numerous blocks.

By this model, the “fastest” quartile of wins feels so lucky that it gets gamblers excited—just like how 25% of Bitcoin blocks arrive within 173 seconds.  The median is much faster than the average, which means that fully half of all games feel luckier than they really are.  Tell me, how many times have you exclaimed, “Wow, I am so lucky—the confirmation of my tx was much faster than I expected!”?

The “slowest” quartile of wins then drains the gamblers’ funds as they keep playing, believing themselves “due” for a win.  Those are the blocks that seem to take forever, as you are awaiting confirmation.  That long tail is long, indeed!

The exponential distribution plays games with your head.  It defies and exploits human intuitions in almost every possible way.  It is a dice site’s best friend.

Maybe some stats textbooks say the same thing.  Maybe not.  I figured this out myself, many moons ago.

* death_wish loves the exponential distribution.
Hamza2424
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June 30, 2022, 09:58:53 AM



I think there is some problem

With the Internet.
It Happens to me as well sometimes

On this post i will preffer this one

eXPHorizon
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June 30, 2022, 09:59:56 AM



Ill tell you what they doin with it...


Buffing up..

ChartBuddy
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June 30, 2022, 10:03:28 AM


Explanation
OutOfMemory
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June 30, 2022, 10:07:04 AM
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I am waiting for the BTC price to go below $1,000..

Proof:  “JayJuanGee” is proudhon’s alt.

=

Quote ridiculously cherry-picked, for comedic effect.  For the record, my sarcasm meter pegged here.

FTFY
somac.
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June 30, 2022, 10:13:22 AM
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Upside down world:

  • BTC keeps going lower even in the face of ridiculous fiat inflation
  • Fiat inflation is supposedly Putin's fault even though the west printed ridiculous sums of fiat out of thin air for years.
  • The G7 / NATO and its silent allies actively want to have a cold war
  • Ursula von der Lies joins the G7 even though she doesn't represent a country and no citizen was able to vote for her and they continue to talk about how we must
    impose democracy on Russia
  • You vote conservative in your country and you keep getting bashed with ridiculous green policies and increased taxes
  • Clowns and demented imbeciles are our leaders
  • Propaganda media outlets keep bashing Russia whose leader talks far more sense than any of our pathetic clowns
  • The Russian ruble keeps strengthening despite suicide sanctions and restrictions. All other currencies against the dollar are deflating even faster than the dollar itself.
  • Western leaders promote economic migrants even though there is supposedly no space for us already (see increased taxes) and fuels illegal people trafficking. immigration has been sold as a virtue signalling option to supposedly help the poor in other countries. The reality is the real poor in those countries can never escape. Only the strongest and usually they are young men.
  • Upside down policy example Netherlands #1: Farmers need to close their business as they are too polluting. The entire country was founded on farming!
  • Upside down policy example Netherlands #2: You will soon have to pay for driving each kilometre, even if you drive abroad. Who in their right mind thinks that's fair AND you will still need to get an EV no doubt.
  • Upside down policy example Netherlands #3: You will need to install a heat pump because gas is simply too polluting even though much of the Dutch economy was built on using and exporting gas.
  • Upside down policy example Netherlands #4: The leader literally said "Ukraine's war is our war." even though citizens firmly rejected closer association with Ukraine in a referendum years ago.
  • Upside down policy example Netherlands #5: Gas and everything is too polluting and citizens will have to pay but in a general sense because of the sanctions on importing Russian gas and the evil Adolf Putin burning coal will be fine if required.
  • The general consensus appears to be carry on and just do more of the same of the failed policies.
  • The CIA appears to be in control of the USA and in fact much of the western world. Puppets in the form of diaper Biden and Kameltoe Harris appear to be so incredibly stupid, pathetic with race baiting and ultimately hypocritical, this bad leader joke thing is just sad to watch for me. Boris Johnson is no better.

Unbelievable.

 Roll Eyes



I think the western world is collapsing quicker then we think. Our political institutions and even non political have been taken over by cultists and they are distributing the cool aid as we speak. If things don't change course soon, drawingup a personal escape plan within the nnext year might be a very prudent thing to do.
ImThour
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June 30, 2022, 10:17:17 AM
Merited by bitmover (3), cygan (1), DdmrDdmr (1), joker_josue (1), empowering (1), Basti773 (1)

Bitcoin has dropped the highest % in June since 2013. 🩸
Just realized, it's the highest % of drop in a single month since 2013.
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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June 30, 2022, 10:27:48 AM

* death_wish prepares to beat Buddy with a horsewhip.

never work.  hes an ai; his electrons will just laugh at you. an electric cattle prod other the other hand..


buddy we dont want to see you hurt. stop resisting. go UP
a1 Hashrate LLC2022
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June 30, 2022, 10:33:43 AM

I did a small buy this morning.

May get some more by monday.

69 to 19 is a good sale.
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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June 30, 2022, 10:40:28 AM

How we all doing?

ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzz

you?
ChartBuddy
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June 30, 2022, 11:01:21 AM


Explanation
BitcoinBunny
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June 30, 2022, 11:13:41 AM

Don't worry folks about BTC going down. I just received this in my in box.

Quote
Dear Binancian,
 
Binance has partnered with Khaby Lame, the Italian Senegalese creator who grew to fame through his viral TikTok videos, to join as a global brand ambassador. As the blockchain ecosystem behind the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance will partner with Khaby to increase Web3 awareness and adoption.  

Just look at the photo. This man clearly triggers confidence in all financial matters. Just the professional look on his face for me instantly lowers my current anxiety and I have to conclude: "Yep we are all going to be alright, absolutely!".



We are all rescued!

THIS is EXACTLY what I was waiting on.


 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
Richy_T
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June 30, 2022, 11:40:39 AM

How did Craig frame the matter?

I forget the details but Peter Rizun asked how long (on average) the next block would be if the last one was n minutes ago and he answered with the 10-n option. That had a lot of CSW supporters illustrate the mental gymnastics they were willing to go through.
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June 30, 2022, 11:44:03 AM

If Buddy makes you sad, look on the bright side:  Perhaps in the long run, a really awful-more-awfuller crash right now could be good for Bitcoin.  Perhaps, perhaps...  #justsaying

Nah, that's "Why inflation is good for us" levels of cope. These crashes may be necessary but they don't really help much.
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