Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wexlike]

I rather prefer losing +80% of my networth holding btc than losing 10% in fiat due to inflation.

Either I'm genius or I got severely dropped on my head as a baby.

[1714471255]

1714471255

[empowering]

I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.

...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course.  

if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels.

But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?)

Hypothetical....


So 1K BTC = BTC ded.... how about 3k? a la Covaids black swan retest?

Hypothetical.... Russia depletes their cruise missiles, and escalates to tactical nukes... sending Europe and NATO n US into a frenzy, markets react, based on speculation of what could come next..... or merely on the "normalisation" of the use of tactical nukes (they are the lower yield nukes, as opposed to strategic)

Markets react..... where does that black swan take BTC price?

orrrrrrrr even worse... tactical nukes deployed by Russia, and met in kind by "entity x" where does that black swan lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr , no, I wont even speculate or ask about strategic nukes, or atomic ....does not bare thinking about...


How about Gina make a yuge move on Taiwan , where does that lead BTC?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about we finally break the "omicron variant" and there is a new variant "Pi"?
and this one is vaccine resistant and does something else new, say, it effects children (remember these are hypotheticals) ..... lockdowns come back with a vengeance,  the worst yet, supply chains totally shit the bed, new "super" vaccine mandates passed in most nations (and do not work) etc.... where does that lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr come October, its a cold winter in Europe, the recession has kicked up several notches, energy prices triple, inflation soars, interest rates increased by several 1% jumps,  and it
still has not dampened inflation....  fuel has tripled, food inflation has gone another 20-30%, economy retracts hard, like never seen before... this whole thing makes earlier lockdowns, and related issues pale in comparison ...   Klaus is right and global anger reaches peak levels, and there is mass civil unrest, martial law in western nations ...

Where does that leave BTC ?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about a combination of ALL OF THE ABOVE  ? the whole shebang, Ukraine, Russia, tactical nukes fly, food, fuel, gas shortages, new variant, deaths, lockdown supermax, supply chain grinds to halt, civil unrest, China makes its move.....

Where does that leave BTC price?


Hypotheticals of course  ......


Whaddya think ?


(I am available for parties and weddings)  

#STOPTROLLING.

covid crash = approximately a double bottom of the previous bear market cycle, so what's the link?

If combinaison of everything, BTC will probably be the least of our worries.

Maybe you are not agree with me, you see probably the bottom in already ? But doesn't smell this according to all the points i mentioned above.

WUT? I AM NOT TROLLING? you have misread my intent entirely

Now back to the discussion.


"covid crash = approximately a double bottom of the previous bear market cycle, so what's the link?"

It is a potential realistic outcome, thats the link.

"If combinaison of everything, BTC will probably be the least of our worries."  ....

Yeah, ermm that is kinda the point I am making!!  and again, it is not like any of that stuff is currently "wildly outrageous to suggest" - just the opposite in fact, it is looking like they are extremely likely POTENTIAL scenarios !!


"Maybe you are not agree with me, you see probably the bottom in already ? But doesn't smell this according to all the points i mentioned above."

Negative, and negative, I am extremely unsure the bottom is 100% in YET. And a lot depends on what happens next over the next 6 months in meat life.

.....


Actually, I was asking you, and others, a genuine question! about these pretty realistic scenarios and where you see the price going!

The basic premise being, what if the situation gets worse, than it was 2020? (3.x bottom) I mean it could go many ways... maybe there is a double bottom, maybe there is a higher low... (due to the fact we have come down from much higher and the floor is raised) OR maybe as the scenario where the situation is even worse plays out, that 3.xK does NOT HOLD.


REMEMBER , these are just hypotheticals.

Also, perhaps, one of these scenarios plays out, or a combination of, or a full house of them plays out (not that outlandish unfortunately) and actually , some of you may be of the view that at some point, that actually, honey badger kicks in and we start to go higher.


The thrust of my post is

1) things could be about to get fugly (and thats the scenarios I am having a thought experiment about) I mean, to what extent is any of these , increasingly likely scenarios "priced in"

2) I wonder how prepared people are, for a deterioration of the situations I pose

3)  Where do people think price would go in one or multiple or all of these scenarios

4) I am curious as to peoples thoughts.


I am not saying all these things will happen! but, then, I am not saying they will not either.. I can easily imagine it, the lot of it.


I can also imagine, a situation where, one by one these issues are all resolved somewhat (well Ukraine/Russia calms down, China does nothing (yet) /new Covid variant does not happen, no new lockdown, inflation steadies, food and fuel prices stabilise, markets like what they see, and between now and October ish, we really are bottomed.... and then off to the races......at least for a while.

Not trolling in the slightest

[ivomm]

... I expect more tears and pain for the weak hands to come...

Weak handers who sold are feeling relief now, with all this bearish debacle.

The tears and pain are for us who didnt sell a sat..

I beg to differ. The definition of a weak hand is someone who bought higher and sold lower.  Look at all those liquidations and institutions selling to get back 20-30% of their investment. They are crying, not us! The strong hands never do that. Why should we complain? We always sell on a 10x+ profit and in case we don't need some fiat, we reinvest buying lower. And those who don't sell anything are the toughest and their reward will be the greatest!

[empowering]

ps.... another scenario of course, given the history of BTC, that, BTC would have done what it is doing right now, even if everything in the world was as it was pre 2019/20 covid... I mean, BTC could have simply been doing what it does, pump, and then retrace 70-85%ish and literally none of this shit happening has made the slightest difference, and technically BTC is just doing what it has always done... and will continue to do so... and we find bottom, and potentially grind it out, up and down, until approach to havening and then, well, we all know what usually happens next......

[rdbase]

I rather prefer losing +80% of my networth holding btc than losing 10% in fiat due to inflation.

Either I'm genius or I got severely dropped on my head as a baby.

Try telling that to Saylor. He bought more at just over $20,800 per coin.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5404510.0

Yet today I see it drive below $18,900 when I got up to check the price.
Some of those youtube bitcoin price shows (think it was crypto banter) said he lost $1.5 billion on the buy from the previous buy.

It is not a general rule in bitcoin buying is to not trying to grab a falling knife?

[empowering]

I rather prefer losing +80% of my networth holding btc than losing 10% in fiat due to inflation.

Either I'm genius or I got severely dropped on my head as a baby.

Try telling that to Saylor. He bought more at just over $20,800 per coin.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5404510.0

Yet today I see it drive below $18,900 when I got up to check the price.
Some of those youtube bitcoin price shows (think it was crypto banter) said he lost $1.5 billion on the buy from the previous buy.

It is not a general rule in bitcoin buying is to not trying to grab a falling knife?

DCA in downtrend on steroids

[BitcoinBunny]

I rather prefer losing +80% of my networth holding btc than losing 10% in fiat due to inflation.

Either I'm genius or I got severely dropped on my head as a baby.

Try telling that to Saylor. He bought more at just over $20,180 per coin.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5404510.0

Yet today I see it drive below $18,900 when I got up to check the price.
Some of those youtube bitcoin price shows (think it was crypto banter) said he lost $1.5 billion on the buy from the previous buy.

It is not a general rule in bitcoin buying is to not trying to grab a falling knife?

No one could have predicted how closely linked BTC still was to the Wall Street bollocks.

Since we have complete and utter imbeciles in charge who are quite happy to lead us all off the cliff in the short term, I'm fully expecting more pain.

One might be able to buy under 10K once more, who knows.

EVENTUALLY oil prices will collapse due to economic downturn and the sun will come out, and we will go up properly beyond 50K and beyond 100K, but it will probably be 1 or 2 years from now I think.

[348Judah]

Brian Shroder is the Binance US CEO, he gave an information on the current state of crypto market and how many had overestimated their winning potentials on investments as well as many exchanges to faces more challenging times ahead because of the situation at hand, he noted the recent event of altcoin Luna and the need to stay aware of investment outside bitcoin, such could happen again over other shitcoins, more regulations are set to be put in place over many of these altcoins, other cryptocurrencies are suffering hard times now while bitcoin remains ever significant despite the dip but more caution on altsoins.

There are hiccups constantly because adoption curves function just like that. When a new technology is developed, and money starts to pour in, several bets are being placed, and not everyone can or will win.
https://coinpedia.org/opinion/binance-us-ceo-predicts-more-cryptocurrency-companies-will-liquidate-in-coming-months/?utm_source=thecryptoapp

[vapourminer]

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step

...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  
  

well it depends on whos kidney you sell.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Bitcoin is not like stonks where they can just low key issue (*print*) moar shares.

The only way for the establishment to get more btc short term, is to shake the tree. Otherwise they have to wait a long time for miners to mine more.

Running up a bitcoin bubble and then crashing it is a very good way (so they think) to shake the tree.

It also serves to change sentiment, i.e. they will be buying the bottom like crazy while fear keeps Joe public out of the market.

Who does the public think was selling bitcoin to them for between $30k-60k all last year? The same whales that were buying the bottom in 2018-2020 between $3k-$10k, that's who.

[vapourminer]

Orrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about a combination of ALL OF THE ABOVE  ? the whole shebang, Ukraine, Russia, tactical nukes fly, food, fuel, gas shortages, new variant, deaths, lockdown supermax, supply chain grinds to halt, civil unrest, China makes its move.....

Where does that leave BTC price?

you forgot alien invasion.

dunno what would be worse if that happens: they liquefy our brains for a gourmet dessert dish  that become famous all through the galaxy. or they instantly mine all the rest of the bitcoins.

when $0 party?

[Gachapin]

Sure... sentiment gets worse and worse.  But when BTC is dead for 95% of the market participants, we can rise again.

I think this mental process of giving up is needed. It has been the same in every bear...

[Hamza2424]

I think now this Pattern means nothing now.
According to this October is still a chance may be or may not be I'm not sure now


So what should we consider now

I'm Thor, and Torque probably if i am not wrong made decent posts regarding Graph's Analysis.

[vapourminer]

* death_wish prepares to beat Buddy with a horsewhip.

never work.  hes an ai; his electrons will just laugh at you. an electric cattle prod other the other hand..

buddy we dont want to see you hurt. stop resisting. go UP

* psycodad waves 3 MS-DOS 6.1 and 7 Windows 3.1 3.5" disks in front of CB, telling him:

Do your job now, or you'll get this "upgrade".

Though it probably wouldn't hurt in the short term as I suspect we don't need him to work with numbers >65536 for quite some time 

worse yet. a cassette tape with GWBASIC. or maybe hit him with a punch card machine.

LISSENUP BUDDY you have no idea of the ancient, evil, cursed hardware we might stick you in.

ps and i have lots of vacuum tubes ready.

[empowering]

Orrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about a combination of ALL OF THE ABOVE  ? the whole shebang, Ukraine, Russia, tactical nukes fly, food, fuel, gas shortages, new variant, deaths, lockdown supermax, supply chain grinds to halt, civil unrest, China makes its move.....

Where does that leave BTC price?

you forgot alien invasion.

dunno what would be worse if that happens: they liquefy our brains for a gourmet dessert dish  that become famous all through the galaxy. or they instantly mine all the rest of the bitcoins.

when $0 party?

heh heh.... you know, I actually fully expect "alien invasion" larp at some point in the future, maybe not in our lifetimes though.


Buuuuuuutttt unfortunately, out of all of the scenarios I laid out, or a combination, or a full house.... I just do not see them as being that outrageous, we seem to be on track for mutiple of them, if not the full house actually playing out in reality.


Russia/Ukraine - seems very plausible tactical nukes get deployed, not 100%, but not 0%, and probably higher than 50% imo  - and , markets I do not think have priced this in

Covid- well , according to the MSM, we now have higher covid cases in the UK than at any time apart from three weeks of the pandemic and, I am hearing chatter about "variant concerns" and , IF , and it is a big IF, there is anything worse about the variant... I am hearing chatter about lockdowns in winter again , ALREADY.


Inflation continuing to rise, and interest rates, and inflation not dampening .... looks like its a decent possibility


Food , fuel, energy prices hike like a MOFO come end of year... looks like that is happening (markets possibly pricing that in already?)


Supply chains grind to halt because of all of the above, is a given, if these scenarios play out.


Civil unrest? depends on if ^^ comes to fruition, if so, I can very much imagine it!  ie Energy, Fuel, food shortages and price hikes, employee lay offs from companies, credit crunch/rates rise,  people get priced out of their mortgages and start losing their homes? lockdowns again compounding it all ...people are going to snap (imo)


China is the wildest card amongst the lot... and personally I am not sure that China is ready to make a move yet .....


As for the rest of it.... I can so imagine it.


Again, I can imagine it not playing out that way also.

[Hamza2424]

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step

...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  
  

well it depends on whos kidney you sell.

Like ?..

Do you think that Saylor Kidney is good enough or need somebody else

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

The mining bear for a 7 cent paid off farm with all s17's is at wait for it:

15k


math as follows

2kwatts x 24 = 48 kwatts a day round to 50

50 x 0.07 = $3.50 power cost


50 x 0.083 = $4.15 gross profit  at 19k

net of 4.15-3.50= 65 cents a day profit.

but at 15k

15/19= .7895 x 4.15= 3.27631 that is a 22 cents lost for a 7 cent miner with all s17's paid off.

7 cent is based on 6 cent power and building labor dead gear = 1 penny more.

this means we did not go bear for a miner. with 6+1 = 7 cent cost.

I am at lower power than that.

13k would be 13/19= .6842 x 4.15 = 2.839 in earnings my power cost is 4 cents + 1 = 5 cents so 5 x 50 = 2.50

2.839- 2.50 = 33 or 34 cent profit on my s17's

So for well setup miners we are not fully bear.

I could see 15-17 easy peasy in the next month and if we get there we need to stay there 2 diff jumps to fully shake most miners

I would be okay as low as 13k after that I would be mining at a loss.

For now I am ready to buy if we go to:

17
16
15
14
13
12?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nutildah]

How we all doing?

ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzz

you?

Good, and you?

Hey fellas. Not too bad, all things considered. Was away for awhile. Had a few drinks, saw a few things...

I believe what the current situation boils down to is:

There's a lot of uncertainty right now but the one thing I'm sure of is the fundamentals of what we believe in haven't changed.

The only thing that has changed is macroeconomic conditions. Bitcoin has only ever lived in a bull stonk market until now. So is this a broader correction or something deeper? Let's hope its the former.