Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[JayJuanGee]

I am available for parties and weddings

I gotta admit.  I like this part.

 

Tempting me to break Opsec, for sure.

This is the weirdest bear market so far...

I am having fun!  I really am.

same here. the thrill is back for me. not since i started and went through my 1st crash (~90% drop) have i felt like this.

are we toast? have we made a huge mistake? if we crash way hard and crater it big time will it survive?

and just like my 1st "panic" in the 2011 crash one thing stays the same for me: HODL this pig. cuz moon or hole in the ground im in 100%

You guys are sick.

That's why empowering is getting invited to the party, and you two are NOT.

Fun.. .

yeah right..

Got another piece at 18.8 this time.

Hoping for lower and ready to do multiple buys.

"WE"  do not hope for lower.






Don't you know nuttin?













Yet?

I rather prefer losing +80% of my networth holding btc than losing 10% in fiat due to inflation.

Either I'm genius or I got severely dropped on my head as a baby.

Now this guy Wexlike...

He's a great example of what is "fun."**


**not the dropping babies part.

[death_wish]

If someone were to offer me a billion dollars right now to give up some of those positive life experiences, I would tell him to take his money straight to hell.  That is not hyperbole.  Some things are priceless.

I know, also, that sometimes people do things differently from what they say that they would do when there is actual concrete offer on the table rather than exploring a hypothetical that may well never be presented..

There is an old saying:  “May I not be put to the test.”

I despise the stereotype of thoughtless people who declare, “I would rather X than Y,” without any deep, experiential, introspective knowledge of how they react in various situations.  Those whose shallow lives have had comforts that they inevitably take for granted.  It is commonplace.

If you better knew me...  Sigh.  I am usually in the position of correcting people when they make such declarations, and it is clear to me that they would most likely betray all they ever loved to claim a bribe of a million dollars, or even much less—never mind a billion!

I choose my words carefully, and I do not speak lightly.

On the flipside, I have faced the moment of truth.  I have had the real-life experience of defiantly declaring, “I would rather die in the gutter than do X,” and soon thereafter struggling to survive, very nearly dying in the gutter, and incurring irreparable permanent damage to my health, instead of surrendering and succumbing to X.  I know whereof I speak.  I will never do X.

But it is not the way of the modern world.  I am an atavism.

Both you and I likely realize that none of these relationship matters are completely absolute - because it is the case that the longer that we are around can contribute towards us being more or less comfortable with other members - maybe certain members more than others.

True.

My own perceptions are much affected by some seemingly impossible extremes.  I have had the experience of reposing absolute, unreserved, unconditional trust in a faceless, voiceless, totally anonymous party whom I could never meet.  A disembodied soul, insofar as I was concerned.  Whoever it was, I trusted that person far more than I trusted the woman whom I once almost married IRL.  The experience left an indelible mark on me.  I wouldn’t trade it for any amount of money—not $billions, not $trillions, not 21m BTC, not a trainload of gold.

Throughout my life, I have always aspired to the impossible.  Rarely have I ever even come close to my goals.

It was not my only rare experience in cypherspace, although it was by far the most unusual.  How can such experiences not affect my general outlook and expectations?

No offense, Jay, but if anyone were hypothetically to offer me $100k or even $10k to cease all discussion with you, I would probably take the money.  Why should I not?  I know that you don’t really care about anyone on the Internet.  We are just chit-chatting and passing by—right?


Good discussion.  Too bad this is not much a philosophical venue.

[Hamza2424]

https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-outlook-technicals-key-support-2019-high-katie-stockton-2022-6

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

~snip

Food for thought.

I don’t do “batslaps”.

~snip

 I disagree.

 

Cool.  Thanks.  Any chance I could get an SVG of that, to tweak and remix for future use as avatars, corporate logos, billboards, national flags, etc.?

[OutOfMemory]

https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-outlook-technicals-key-support-2019-high-katie-stockton-2022-6

What did me quite good lately was to quit reading articles (and "articles") mentioning crypto with Bitcoin in titles.
#justsayin  

[death_wish]

There is no excuse for spreading wrong information and urban legends.

No, I am not trying to be persnickety.  The Bitcoinland urban legend of “blocks take about 10 minutes” is Gambler’s Fallacy:  A practical expectation that you are “due” for a win based on a statistical average.

[...]

Technically.....   D_W says


Fuck technically!!!

You got it backwards.  You are hypertechnically (and incorrectly) seizing onto a number that has theoretical significance, but no practical significance to the ordinary user.  The 10-minute average is a practically useless number to most people.  It does not matter to everyday usage of Bitcoin.

Yeah.. maybe it matters for a miner.. or for someone in a hurry transacting a $1 million transaction.. but most people only need to know that bitcoin workie workie works.. and it continues to work... and workie workie, too

Bitcoin works.  People are confused by the misinformation of “about 10 minutes”.  It makes them upset.  It makes them wonder if Bitcoin is broken, when they get hit with occasional hour-long confirmation times.  Then, they go to faux-decentralized, lower-security shitcoins that promise “instant finality blah blah blah”.

Moreover, you are wrong about the $1 million transaction.  Anyone transacting for $1 million in value probably wants more than one confirmation.  The more confirmations you wait, the more relevant the 10-minute average becomes.  If you wait six confirmations, it will more likely take closer to 60 minutes than a single confirmation is to take “about 10 minutes”.  That is how averages work!  It is why Bitcoin’s targeting algorithm works:  It targets an average over many blocks.

Please open up your desktop calculator, play around with the CDF and PDF of the exponential distribution with λ = 0.1 (or λ = 1/600 if you are measuring in seconds), and get a feel for the extraordinary shape of a curve that defies human intuition.  You will soon be appalled at just how useless the 10-minute average is for ordinary, everyday usage.


Technical misinformation should always be corrected.  The notion that “a block takes about 10 minutes” is an urban legend.  It is counterproductive.  It is confusing to users in everyday real-life practical scenarios.  Please stop spreading it.

[xhomerx10]

In other news...

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220630-climate-activists-glue-hands-to-van-gogh-frame-in-london-gallery

[JayJuanGee]

Not trolling in the slightest

Riiiiggghhht


yeah... rrriiigggghhhtt

I rather prefer losing +80% of my networth holding btc than losing 10% in fiat due to inflation.

Either I'm genius or I got severely dropped on my head as a baby.

Try telling that to Saylor. He bought more at just over $20,800 per coin.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5404510.0

Yet today I see it drive below $18,900 when I got up to check the price.
Some of those youtube bitcoin price shows (think it was crypto banter) said he lost $1.5 billion on the buy from the previous buy.

It is not a general rule in bitcoin buying is to not trying to grab a falling knife?

DCA in downtrend on steroids

More or less that is how buying on the dip and/or DCA is supposed to be done. 

About a day and a half ago, I wrote out a pretty detailed responsive post on the topic of Saylor's most recent buy that was a bit critical of Saylor in regards to his having had not really been buying on the dips (lack of price sensitivity), but largely agreeing with his ability to exercise discretion and work out these matters for himself (and his company), if anyone is interested to read what I wrote. 

I am not even trying to imply that Saylor is not smart.. but sometimes BTC price movements can end up putting some of us in very similar/comparable situations and it is a matter of quantity of money even though we might end up in similar places in terms of percentages.  Interesting for sure, and so difficult to know while we are going through these matters regarding how long the negative parts will last or how far DOWNity it will go.

Can humble the best and the BIGGEST of players, and surely we are also finding out how some pretty damned BIG ASS players (not referring to Saylor) have been really humbled when they were being sneaky about NOT having the BTC that they claimed that they had.. Playing with customer funds and also misleading customers in  terms of the strength of how their BTC was "earning yield" through implicitly could business practices (for sure there is no evidence to even implicate Saylor in playing those kinds of extreme (and likely illegal/fraud) games).

One might be able to buy under 10K once more, who knows.

I am suffering a lot of doubts about this possibility.

.... we will go up properly beyond 50K and beyond 100K, but it will probably be 1 or 2 years from now I think.

I have a lot of doubts about this timeline too...

but the more I think about it is truly we have to see the bottom first.. and then we have to recover.. so yeah.. part 1 and part 2... Hardly could presume less than 6 months.. even a April 2019 scenario took 5 months to reverse and then 3 months to raise.. and we ONLY got about a 3.5x raise from the jump off (I mean up) base.. .. so 8 months minimum to reach $50k seems reasonable... at the same time, I get the sense (from the last time that I checked with him) that King Daddy does not like limits and does not like being reasonable, either.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Just because I'm not stroking your ego by reading your every word and engaging with every discussion,

Why would I need my ego stroked by such riff-raff as you?

it doesn't mean I dislike you,

I dislike you.

You profited from shilling for the DeepOnion scam, a massively premined P&D fake-privacy coin with a transparent blockchain (!).  You defended it with the same arrogance and audacity as you hereby show.  You attacked and insulted people who called it what it was:  A scam.

You now profit from shilling for Wasabi Wallet, a “privacy” wallet in bed with blockchain analysis.

You have made a forum career of pushing projects that give a false sense of privacy and security.  As a privacy activist with a high degree of technical expertise in the subject, I am likely to dislike that!

Hereby, your transparent prevarication about your intentions in “genuinely wanting some feedback as to... how effective is the ignore button” would not fool even a dull child.

Upon all of that, you claim the improbable as noted below.  Your credibility does not support the making of improbable claims.

If you were making references to Gold's bear market, as I said, good for you. I did so purely in the context of Yearly MAs, so unless this is what you did, I clearly didn't rip you off what-so-ever, even if i did read what you had to say (which I didn't).

Yearly MAs are a red herring.  That is your angle on a subject that I have been discussing.

Right, so I'm not ripping off your argument then, I'm arguing against it? Great, glad to hear it, wouldn't have it any other way.
Unless your opinion on the matter is the only one that's relevant? In such a case, I deeply apologise your excellence.

I think the preponderance of probabilities is that you picked up the theme from the copious recent discussion of gold here, but wished to avoid acknowledging me.  I do not give a hoot if you read my posts; but if you do, and if you cadge ideas from me, I always demand acknowledgment.  It is the only form of payment I have ever sought here, other than occasionally putting out a tip address.  (Sigspamming for fake privacy projects would surely be more profitable; but then, I would need to live up to my name by committing honour-suicide.)

It is unsurprising that you would take a position contrary to my arguments, given that you are usually wrong.

I do evaluate my lack of competence here regularly in fact, enough users know this from me. I acknowledge my mistakes and inaccuracies,

Have you ever repudiated DeepOnion, and made some sort of material restitution for profiting off a scam?  Have you ever even apologized to the people whom you attacked for calling a scam a scam?

Have you re-evaluated your current sigspamming for Wasabi, Spying and Censorship Edition?

Let’s start with that.  It could be a long list, and I know that you don’t like to read too much.

[JayJuanGee]

LISSENUP BUDDY you have no idea of the ancient, evil, cursed hardware we might stick you in.

these kinds of posts do not reflect well upon you.

The mining bear for a 7 cent paid off farm with all s17's is at wait for it:

15k


math as follows

2kwatts x 24 = 48 kwatts a day round to 50

50 x 0.07 = $3.50 power cost


50 x 0.083 = $4.15 gross profit  at 19k

net of 4.15-3.50= 65 cents a day profit.

but at 15k

15/19= .7895 x 4.15= 3.27631 that is a 22 cents lost for a 7 cent miner with all s17's paid off.

7 cent is based on 6 cent power and building labor dead gear = 1 penny more.

this means we did not go bear for a miner. with 6+1 = 7 cent cost.

I am at lower power than that.

13k would be 13/19= .6842 x 4.15 = 2.839 in earnings my power cost is 4 cents + 1 = 5 cents so 5 x 50 = 2.50

2.839- 2.50 = 33 or 34 cent profit on my s17's

So for well setup miners we are not fully bear.

I could see 15-17 easy peasy in the next month and if we get there we need to stay there 2 diff jumps to fully shake most miners

I would be okay as low as 13k after that I would be mining at a loss.

For now I am ready to buy if we go to:

17
16
15
14
13
12?

You don't have any loans or leverage in your calculations?  

Some of the miners who got fucked or are about to get fucked are the ones who played their finances really BIG in terms of the amount of leverage that they were using to buy new equipment, hold rather than sell bitcoin and maybe expanding their operations faster than they should have reasonably expected to have been able to do.. which in some sense relied upon BTC prices either staying flat (no loer than $30ks) or going up.. and surely were not sufficiently prepared for BTC price to go down.. maybe even some of them starting to suffer pretty severely once BT prices got below $25k or so.

How we all doing?

ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzz

you?

Good, and you?

Hey fellas. Not too bad, all things considered. Was away for awhile. Had a few drinks, saw a few things...

I believe what the current situation boils down to is:

There's a lot of uncertainty right now but the one thing I'm sure of is the fundamentals of what we believe in haven't changed.

The only thing that has changed is macroeconomic conditions. Bitcoin has only ever lived in a bull stonk market until now. So is this a broader correction or something deeper? Let's hope its the former.

Well we have macroeconomic conditions, true.. but we also have a lot of risky and highly leveraged players contributing to some of the cascading downity pressures in recent times (even more so as of May-ish), no?  

In other words, it is not just macroeconomic conditions that put us in our current place of ongoing downity pressures.  Some other folk believe that we are just in a normal cycle.. I have my doubts, but the normal cycle theory is not without some possible validity.. including that the trend is your friend, and once momentum is going down, the bearwhales are going to push it down as far as they can and for as long as they can including but not limited to playing whatever dirty tricks that they are able to pull out of their hats (if they wear hats like "we" do?).

 Oh my gawd, JayJuanGee is expecting sub-$1k prices!  Panic!  SELL!  mindrust!)

Not expecting.

Waiting for.

 

The whole world is in "oh, s-t" state.

How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.

The best plan is to NOT have a plan.

Is that the Biodom way?

or did you steal that plan from someone else?

#justasking.

It's laughable, but sometimes I have a thought that this bitcoin price decrease is to prevent people from "escaping" either fiat OR even physically.

I don't disagree with you, but I doubt it was preordained or anythng like that.  You must have been reading Torque's playbook to come up with that idea.    

Stop reading the playbooks of other members.  !!!!

 

It's OT, but I sold some assets (not bitcoin) a couple of days ago to at least finish the major renovation project (just an old habit of finishing things that you set up to do) without a need to sell at the bottom.

I cannot disagree with you about that.  I am considering some additional changes to my own asset/cash reorganizing efforts.. that includes (or will be mostly focused on) non-bitcoin assets, too.  It may take me a couple of weeks for me to work it out, and I might disclose some aspects of it later, because even though it does not immediately involve bitcoin, it is likely to have some down the road effects on bitcoin due to changes in some of my cashflow thjat would run into the future and then have a kind of cumulative effect.

I looked at various second passports and/or residencies and there is NOTHING that represents a true escape. Some Caribbean entities look cheap, but they are just placeholders. Europe is very expensive and/or defeats the purpose of "escaping".

Oh, well, here goes nothing.

Gosh.. you (Biodom) have pretty narrow preference areas in the world.. or at least you are arguably selective.. so ultimately nothing wrong with that, even though I thought that the world was a wee bit moar bigger than the "possible" second passport areas that you are suggesting to be  potentially suitable for you.. but for sure each of us has our preferences and inclinations too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Not trolling in the slightest

Riiiiggghhht


yeah... rrriiigggghhhtt

Jay, I am in the mood to troll you.  What the hey.  I will prove to you that Bitcoin sucks.

I rather prefer losing +80% of my networth holding btc than losing 10% in fiat due to inflation.

Either I'm genius or I got severely dropped on my head as a baby.

Try telling that to Saylor. He bought more at just over $20,800 per coin.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5404510.0

Yet today I see it drive below $18,900 when I got up to check the price.
Some of those youtube bitcoin price shows (think it was crypto banter) said he lost $1.5 billion on the buy from the previous buy.

It is not a general rule in bitcoin buying is to not trying to grab a falling knife?

DCA in downtrend on steroids

More or less that is how buying on the dip and/or DCA is supposed to be done.

Dinosaur Bitcoinland:  Buy the dip!

Next-generation futuristic coins:  When a certain altcoin recently crashed, I bought a few around $8.  Only a token amount (so to speak), as a political act in defiance of Janet Yellen.  I was pretty much out of money, anyway.

When the knife suddenly fell to $0.000003, I DCAed down.  How’s that for “DCA in downtrend on steroids”?

I was then shocked that the people who bought at >$100 called the most talented knife-catchers “mercenary opportunists”, and even “psychopaths” (!), for our honest fair-market purchases.  More shocked when a small group of big DPOS companies peremptorily hardforked the allegedly decentralized blockchain, with a shitcoin shellgame to snatch back value from all of the psychopathic mercenary opportunists who collectively bought trillions of coins in the microdollar price range.

Hello?  Isn’t buying the dip to DCA down supposed to be savvy investing?

I showed them some links about Bitcoin and pizzas.  Quotes from Laszlo.  It didn’t help.

Anyway...  You toxic maxis don’t know what a “downtrend” is.  Bitcoin is boring.  Its dips are for ants.  Your “falling knives” just aren’t.  And Bitcoin’s blockchain is too predictable!  You lack the benefits of modern blockchain governance:  You never get nice surprises like the consensus rules suddenly being changed to devalue your money.  How can you live without the excitement?

Bitcoin sucks.

 Oh my gawd, JayJuanGee is expecting sub-$1k prices!  Panic!  SELL!  mindrust!)

Not expecting.

Waiting for.

 

IMO, die-hard nocoiners are the most patient investors in the world:  They are waiting for $0.  Waiting, waiting...  It takes an awful lot of patience.

If you are only waiting for sub-$1k prices, it sounds like you are impatient to buy the dip!

[JayJuanGee]

...and I am so “foolish”, I lack faith that the previous cycle top can never, ever be revisited—let alone broken. <jay></jay>

Yes.. I agree.

You are foolish and/or you have foolish tendencies.

 So, let’s see how much Jay appreciates my allegorical gold-market theory that Bitcoin is fine.  Good as gold.

Not appreciated.  Been there; done that.

[edited out]

... I will pretty much just point out that you are deeply ensconced in a Reality Distortion Field.  New ideas are needed. 

Have I ever proclaimed to be a bastion of the flow of new and effervescent ideas?

I have them.  Thank me for being bullish while others are discussing a death spiral, instead of flipping off at me over nonsense.

That's strange.  Why would I want to discourage ideas - unless they happen to be detached from reality in the sense of lacking in logic and/or facts to reach bad conclusions?

I am sure your theories are fine in that regard though, right?  Why wouldn't they be?  They are coming from uie-pooie, who surely would theoretically be amongst the top 100 smartest people in the room (and if top 100 fails, then surely top 200, no?), no matter which room we were to choose (or happen to be in), no?

By comparison, looking at the Gold chart using Monthly MA Ribbon (SMA) with intervals of 12 (1 Year) starting with 12 (after it's decade long bull market and 25x increase):

In summary, I think the worst (or arguably best) case scenario is a bear market based on an extended amount of time, not an extended correction of price.

Seems to me that there is something fundamentally wrong (or off) with using gold as a comparison when we are talking about an emergent asset class versus a 2,000 year old asset class..

[eXPHorizon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FmRt57tpmo



This i will never understand... WHY OH WHY USA EVER BANNED AND DESTROYED THESE CARS !?!
imo this is one of the greatest atrocities commited by usa lol

p.s this is one of the greatest anti inflation currency out there a R34 GTR

[death_wish]

...and I am so “foolish”, I lack faith that the previous cycle top can never, ever be revisited—let alone broken. <jay></jay>

Yes.. I agree.

You are foolish and/or you have foolish tendencies.

Even in non-inflation-adjusted nominal dollar terms, we are sitting on the previous cycle top right now after having broken several times below it.  That has never happened before—not even close!—not since Bitcoin became old-enough to have any previous “four-year cycle top” for comparison.

So stated to inform future readers of the context.

In that context, I will let the above unedited quotation speak for itself.

I have them [new ideas].  Thank me for being bullish while others are discussing a death spiral, instead of flipping off at me over nonsense.

That's strange.  Why would I want to discourage ideas - unless they happen to be detached from reality in the sense of lacking in logic and/or facts to reach bad conclusions?

You have not addressed the substance of my ideas here.  You have only taken irrelevant snipes at cherry-picked quotes.

My basic thesis is an answer to all of the people who are worried that Bitcoin, allegedly a sound hard-money store of value, is performing very poorly right now.  I believe you noticed that some are even claiming that Bitcoin has somehow failed as a “store of value”.

Even gold can have a bad bear market.  When there are many complicated global economic and political factors impacting its market, even gold can have poor economic performance for awhile.  No reasonable (or even sane) person would claim that gold doesn’t work as a store of value.  Even when it crashed, gold was fine.  When it crashed, smart holders held, and smart buyers bought.

Mutatis mutandis, apply the same principles to Bitcoin.  If you feel an itch to overextend the analogy, to toss in red herrings, or to cherry-pick pieces out of context, then you may want to look up what “mutatis mutandis” means.


I am NOT predicting a two-decade bear market for Bitcoin.  Only an illiterate simpleton would read that into anything that I have said.

I am NOT performing TA to read tea leaves about Bitcoin from historical gold prices (!), like that idiot dragonvslinux.

I was NOT using the analogy to make price predictions about Bitcoin.

I am proclaiming that a hard-money store-of-value asset can temporarily suffer poor performance in extraordinary conditions, and that the asset will recover.

I am saying that even if the bottom is not yet in, even if the bear market gets worse for awhile, I will not panic about Bitcoin’s long-term future as a store of value.  I am not positively predicting worse incoming crashes—but just in case, I am psychologically prepared for the not-insignificant probability of such events.

By comparison, looking at the Gold chart using Monthly MA Ribbon (SMA) with intervals of 12 (1 Year) starting with 12 (after it's decade long bull market and 25x increase):

In summary, I think the worst (or arguably best) case scenario is a bear market based on an extended amount of time, not an extended correction of price.

Seems to me that there is something fundamentally wrong (or off) with using gold as a comparison when we are talking about an emergent asset class versus a 2,000 year old asset class..

Seems to me like there is something fundamentally wrong with using charts from a different asset in different historical circumstances to make any kind of price forecasts about Bitcoin.  It is the distilled essence of the worst TA-addict mindset.

Edit, P.S. (and inb4 anyone else):  What do you mean, Jay, by a “2,000 year old” asset?  That is a drastic error in describing how long gold and other PMs have been used as money.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Agbe]

How we all doing?

Welcome back to the Forum, it's been a while. Though when I came to the Forum I didn't notice you untill a thread was created by lovesmayfamilis https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5394051.msg59826107#msg59826107 then I noticed you from that thread and also made effort to know more about you and I discovered that you were a greet author and hard-working man that always want the forum to be cleaned. Your name was on my mind and praying God to return you because I like people that are always hate plagiarism and scam. Therefore, I wished you can do the good work again to make the forum clean. I missed you. You are welcome once again. Please coach me something I need to know in the forum.