Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Jay, try the de-caf? just a suggestion.

ok - smartie panties

Anyone going to give option to buy sub 10K  

cant fucking wait. 

If you are expecting sub $10k, you might be waiting for a while, and you might not even achieve such a thing in your lifetime.

If you feel that you don't have enough cornz in order to be sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP, then you may well want to consider sub $19,800 (as I type) as a bargain?

There might be something wrong with you since you seem to want more of a bargain, even though you already have a bargain staring you in the face.

I still think that when the market reaches around $17k and people open long positions, So this time we will see one last unexpected dump which will cause BTC to reach $15k or $12k. During the journey of bitcoin from $18k to $25k, everyone thought that the market would go comfortably to $30k but during that time the rising wedge broke and according to this pattern it is not possible to return before $17k when BTC reaches $17k or $18k, it will be a better idea what is the mood of the market.

Your posts are starting to turn into dweeb posts, including strawman ascribing moon-boy status to members here who have been talking about upward BTC price movements that have likely similar odds of happening as your wishful-thinking DOWNity scenario that cannot even stop in terms of wishing for $17k and cannot resist including $12k to $15k in your propositions of inevitability.

It's not my wish, after looking at the chart, drawing a few lines, and looking at some news, I'm just stating things my little brain perceives. All of us say things by looking at the possibilities and if I have to say something now, I see bitcoin going to $22k because it has successfully retested the trendline by breaking it. The 200-4H moving average is currently at $22400. If BTC successfully breaks this, we could see Bitcoin at $25k and then even $30k.

You are pretty sporadic, no?

Maybe yes

One minute you see that $17k is inevitable - and even high chances of $12k or $15k, and then a day or two later, you are all of a sudden talking about UPpity?  

The reduction in prices from $25K to $17K that I talked about was due to rising wedge and that happened quite a bit. The trend line that we have been seeing small dumps continuously was broken by Bitcoin after reaching $19500 and retested it twice and moved upwards. Yesterday when I replied to you saying that we could see Bitcoin at $22K, $25K, and maybe $30K after that, the 4H-50 MA which was at $20400 which couldn't be crossed, a small dump was seen but still, Bitcoin is above the trend line so it means there are still chances this is short term while in long term it still looks like more dump is possible.

Do you consider it helpful to be flip flopping so easily?

Price action works like this

Are you a betting man?

No, I don't like it.

Yeah, maybe I am just policing your language, but if you really do not mean that it is going down to $17k or to $15k or to $12k, then why are you saying it in this thread?

As DXY's monthly candle closes near 109, strong resistance at 107 has been broken and the weekly candle is also seen closing above 109. If this continues for the next couple of weeks and the Fed also announces an interest rate hike, the pump we'll see in the DXY after that I think Bitcoin will fall further, at least in September, nothing good is expected.

Just to let you know (or would that be Protip? there is no inevitable in bitcoin especially related to 15% more down merely because you and a bunch of reddit dweeb-twats are wishing for such down.

Likely one of the ONLY things inevitable in bitcoin is its volatility, and the inevitable aspect of bitcoin's volatility does not have a directional component - even if you are asserting such doom and gloom DOWNity BTC price matters as if they were certain when they might not even have odds that are much higher than 50%, especially since we have already been bouncing largely below the 200-Week moving average for more than 2.5 months..

The price has been above the 200-weekly moving average for almost two weeks but we saw a small dump when the daily candle broke below the 20 and 50 moving averages. Due to this, The BTC price could not maintain the support of the 200-weekly moving average so by the end of this week, it would be clearer what we should think about going forward as the support at $19K looks quite strong.

I really have doubts whether getting caught up with short-term BTC price moves is really going to be very helpful regarding figuring out if we are going to stay in our consolidation range for a while or if we are going to break in one direction or another..and you also seem to recognize that the BTC price had gotten up into the $25ks and then crashed back down to the $19ks, and sure that's about a 25% change in price, but given the whole context of where we are at, it seems that we are still just largely staying sufficiently close to our $17,593 local bottom in order that we are not yet ready to generate confidence about how likely it is that the bottom is in.. and o course, we remain still close to the bottom.. whether we are in the $19ks or even if we had gotten up to the $25ks, especially given the overall context of having such a severe correction below the 200-week moving average, and it still remains relevant that we are spending quite a bit of time below the 200-week moving average, even if you want to carve out some time in which we were not below the 200-week moving average, it comes off as a BIG SO WHAT? to me.

I don't think BTC is in some kind of consolidation movement but with each passing day we are getting closer to $17K and if it continues like this So we can see a nice move to either side as the 20 and 50 moving averages get closer to the daily candle.

Have you heard about bitcoin-related factors, or do you believe bitcoin merely jumps whenever macro-factors bark such orders at it?  

Are you completely out of bitcoin at this time, Morningstarr?  Have you retained any cornz in case the price does not go in the direction nor to the degree that you expect it to go?

Hopefully the BTC portion of your portfolio is NOT reflective of the nonsense that you are spewing... Hey.. you might being correct in your prediction, but your confidence comes off as a wee bit out of touch with reality.

Supply and demand; yes I think that things like these affects prices for either short or long term. If it doesn't, I will have to change my mind, but it doesn't matter if I am proven right or wrong, either way, I will be satisfied that more dump is not possible from here and the good days of market have come.

It seems to me that one of the most inevitable matters in regards to bitcoin's short to medium-term price performance is that it is going to continue to be volatile, so yeah for sure, it is going to feel good when we can get out of these bottom areas, and then the question still will remain about how much distance from the bottom is enough in order to start to feel confident that the bottom is in and that we are likely to be moving up from here on out..

This will only be assessed when we have missed the bottom and Bitcoin has broken at least one major resistance. For example, if $17K is the bottom, then Bitcoin needs to cross at least $26K to regain confidence of people and new money comes into the market, otherwise, if good news about the global economy starts coming, then Bitcoin is the bottom wherever it is.

Surely, I don't claim to know how to know exactly when the bottom is in, but it would seem that getting above $30k and maybe even above $35k (or wherever the 100-week moving average will be at that time), would be helpful to buil confidence, but we even know that BTC price movements are a product of both quantity of movement but also we have to account for how much time it took to get there which also likely will reflect in how much volume was traded to get the price there, too.  I guess I am thinking that we do not really have much of a proper framework to be considering how much UPPity BTC price movement we are going to need before we have confidence that the bottom is in, since we are largely still floating in BTC price territories that are close to our current bottom so the bottom still seems to be the more relevant and immediate question rather than when we might be out of it.

True, crossing the 100-week moving average would be good news and a confidence booster for everyone. However, the important point is that we do not have enough information on it.

Maybe one of the differences between the way that you seem to be attempting to assess the BTC price and the way that I try to do it is that I am not getting very caught up on trying to figure out shorter-term moves, and like I already said, it seems to me that you are all over the place and I question whether you are trying to trade your seemingly flip flopping ideas? or are you just dabbling for the mere sake of sharing information?

#LNMETA

During all the mempool nonsense just recently, I just watched a node manually drain out all my liquidity through their side, paid some handsome fees, and closed the channel on me.

Curious watching the overall game theory play out.

Is the person on the other side of the channel trying to cheat you?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

<snip>

#LNMETA

During all the mempool nonsense just recently, I just watched a node manually drain out all my liquidity through their side, paid some handsome fees, and closed the channel on me.

Curious watching the overall game theory play out.

Is the person on the other side of the channel trying to cheat you?

I have a lot of interest in how LN pool is working as a second/third layer for BTC


Bob what are your thoughts on this?

any idea on your BTC outlays vs your BTC intakes. You have been running one a while.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

#LNMETA

During all the mempool nonsense just recently, I just watched a node manually drain out all my liquidity through their side, paid some handsome fees, and closed the channel on me.

Curious watching the overall game theory play out.

There is an idea I have entertained, but have been too busy to try much of it.  Certain nodes will chew through liquidity like water... WOS for example.  So I can open a king sized channel... set fees to whatever will more than cover the two tx fees.  And then close with a profit, rinse lather, repeat.

But that feels dirty.  Not because of fees, but because of settling on the main chain over and over.  Defeats the purpose somewhat.  I think the protpcpl is where the channel balancing problems may be best addressed...  but I am not sure exactly how.  There is no reason though that we should not be able to see channels be drained and filled over and over.  Still thinking about it.

[cAPSLOCK]

Since you had been talking out of both sides of your mouth in regards to whether models are good are bad, I doubt that I am saying much of anything different from you except maybe some of my matters end up getting framed differently from you in terms of my desire to assert that the models are still quite useful, even if they end up playing out wrongedly.

I am a man of the grey, of nuance, of complexity.  I think the models are interesting, and useful.  And all of them end up wrong because you cannot simplify the chaotic nature of this market into a terse formula.

I STILL do not think S2F is necessarily completely busted yet.  PROBABLY at this point... but. And I would love to see it come roaring back particularly with the overshoot needed to balance this deviation.

But I am not betting on that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hamza2424]

There are more and more indicators that Bitcoin is bottoming for this cycle. I’m starting to think the market might be on its way back up before the mtgox coins are distributed. I think it would be wise to be buying the dips here and hanging onto the coins you have.

Mtgox i'm hearing this news from the July still there is no any announced date yet but as you said indicators are bottoming so here i would like to say i'm standing with you after the month of September. for now September seems and opportunity to grab up some of decent amount. Point is How it comes out with October as a quite Bullish month in history and i can at least expect the come back to 30k

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

The classic Dyson sphere with 100% efficiency would only be detectable by observing objects orbiting the star. Basically like a black hole. Inefficient sphere would radiate heat (infrared) and be detectable by JWST.

My thoughts too. Though there would surely be diminishing returns and you'd have some emissions at a very low frequency.

But a Dyson sphere can also be built as a ring or rings around a star. Let's say a strip with solar panels going around the star. This could be detectable because the ring could cause fluctuations in the light emitted by the star.

No one mentioning Larry Niven's Ringworld?

Only those with 100% efficiency would be undetectable in infrared, but 95% efficient would still be visible, apparently.
Dyson himself thought that it would radiate, but there is a lot of discussion back and forth.
See discussion of params here:
https://canmom.art/physics/dyson-spheres
and/or
https://www.tillett.info/2016/08/03/carnot-efficient-dyson-spheres-are-undetectable-by-infrared-surveys/
and
https://www.quora.com/If-a-star-were-fully-enclosed-in-a-Dyson-sphere-would-the-ambient-temperature-inside-increase-significantly-over-time
https://www.quora.com/Why-wouldnt-a-Dyson-sphere-eventually-just-melt-from-the-trapped-heat-of-the-star

Re ringworld-awesome sci-fi, not sure it could be detected with JWST, though...if it exists.
Generally, no systems are 100% efficient and heat radiation occurs.

It detected these concentric rings around a distant star, whatever they are.

https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-odd-ripples-image

The James Webb Space Telescope captured mysterious concentric rings around a distant star that astronomers are still working to explain.

The image, taken in July, was released on Twitter by citizen scientist Judy Schmidt, prompting a torrent of comments and head-scratching. It shows a star known as WR140 surrounded by regular ripple-like circles that gradually fade away. The circles, however, are not perfectly round, but have a somewhat square-like feel to them, prompting speculations about possible alien origins.

"I think it's just nature doing something that is simple, but when we look at it from only one viewpoint it seems impossible, at first, to understand that it is a natural phenomenon," Schmidt told Space.com in an email. "Why is it shaped the way it is? Why is it so regular?"

Mark McCaughrean, an interdisciplinary scientist in the James Webb Space Telescope Science Working Group and a science advisor to the European Space Agency, called the feature "bonkers" in a Twitter thread.

"The six-pointed blue structure is an artifact due to optical diffraction from the bright star WR140 in this #JWST MIRI image," he wrote. "But red curvy-yet-boxy stuff is real, a series of shells around WR140. Actually in space. Around a star."

He noted that WR140 is what astronomers call a Wolf-Rayet star, which have spat much of their hydrogen into space. These objects are also surrounded by dust, he added, which a companion star is sculpting into the strange shells.

Astronomers will know more soon thanks to a scientific paper currently under review about this mysterious phenomenon.

"Yes, those nested 'squircular' rings are real," Ryan Lau, an astronomer at NOIRLab and principal investigator of the project that acquired the observations, replied to the Twitter thread. "Our paper on this has been submitted so please stay tuned for the full story."

[Hueristic]

Obvious ring world, ring world is obvious.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

Obvious ring world, ring world is obvious.

Probably swamp gas.

[BobLawblaw]

Bob what are your thoughts on this?

#LNMETA

Didn't see the JJG question because fuck him, that's why.

My thoughts on this are "meh. I'll deal with it when I close the node eventually."

This goes back to my issue with the seeming "quantum state" of multisig stuff relating to Lightning that I am not clear on how it unwinds...

IOW, AFAIK, when I close everything down, I should get back all my liquidity, minus on-chain costs.

In theory.

I'm not going to be able to test that theory for a while as I'm committing to keeping this node up for as long as I have available liquidity on the node, without needing to add more.

Here's a current snapshot of my P&L display going back from when I started the node. It's only very recently that I became aggressive with fees.

[Morningstarr]

=178336.msg60873480#msg60873480 date=1662165194]
like I already said, it seems to me that you are all over the place and I question whether you are trying to trade your seemingly flip flopping ideas? or are you just dabbling for the mere sake of sharing information?

Right Because I don't have any specific information so I am straying from the point and mixing up things.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

The classic Dyson sphere with 100% efficiency would only be detectable by observing objects orbiting the star. Basically like a black hole. Inefficient sphere would radiate heat (infrared) and be detectable by JWST.

My thoughts too. Though there would surely be diminishing returns and you'd have some emissions at a very low frequency.

But a Dyson sphere can also be built as a ring or rings around a star. Let's say a strip with solar panels going around the star. This could be detectable because the ring could cause fluctuations in the light emitted by the star.

No one mentioning Larry Niven's Ringworld?

Only those with 100% efficiency would be undetectable in infrared, but 95% efficient would still be visible, apparently.
Dyson himself thought that it would radiate, but there is a lot of discussion back and forth.
See discussion of params here:
https://canmom.art/physics/dyson-spheres
and/or
https://www.tillett.info/2016/08/03/carnot-efficient-dyson-spheres-are-undetectable-by-infrared-surveys/
and
https://www.quora.com/If-a-star-were-fully-enclosed-in-a-Dyson-sphere-would-the-ambient-temperature-inside-increase-significantly-over-time
https://www.quora.com/Why-wouldnt-a-Dyson-sphere-eventually-just-melt-from-the-trapped-heat-of-the-star

Re ringworld-awesome sci-fi, not sure it could be detected with JWST, though...if it exists.
Generally, no systems are 100% efficient and heat radiation occurs.

It detected these concentric rings around a distant star, whatever they are.

https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-odd-ripples-image

The James Webb Space Telescope captured mysterious concentric rings around a distant star that astronomers are still working to explain.

The image, taken in July, was released on Twitter by citizen scientist Judy Schmidt, prompting a torrent of comments and head-scratching. It shows a star known as WR140 surrounded by regular ripple-like circles that gradually fade away. The circles, however, are not perfectly round, but have a somewhat square-like feel to them, prompting speculations about possible alien origins.

"I think it's just nature doing something that is simple, but when we look at it from only one viewpoint it seems impossible, at first, to understand that it is a natural phenomenon," Schmidt told Space.com in an email. "Why is it shaped the way it is? Why is it so regular?"

Mark McCaughrean, an interdisciplinary scientist in the James Webb Space Telescope Science Working Group and a science advisor to the European Space Agency, called the feature "bonkers" in a Twitter thread.

"The six-pointed blue structure is an artifact due to optical diffraction from the bright star WR140 in this #JWST MIRI image," he wrote. "But red curvy-yet-boxy stuff is real, a series of shells around WR140. Actually in space. Around a star."

He noted that WR140 is what astronomers call a Wolf-Rayet star, which have spat much of their hydrogen into space. These objects are also surrounded by dust, he added, which a companion star is sculpting into the strange shells.

Astronomers will know more soon thanks to a scientific paper currently under review about this mysterious phenomenon.

"Yes, those nested 'squircular' rings are real," Ryan Lau, an astronomer at NOIRLab and principal investigator of the project that acquired the observations, replied to the Twitter thread. "Our paper on this has been submitted so please stay tuned for the full story."

To me, the 'squircular' form of these rings (and they are probably rings, not half-rings due to simply less bright second half (of the ring)) is the most puzzling part.
Looking forward to the explanation of a strange form.

[sirazimuth]

Obvious ring world, ring world is obvious.

Probably swamp gas.

No and no... obviously it was the extraterrestrial alien Charlotte the Spider, making herself a nice outer space (James) web home on the lens rim....