So to be serious 13-14 k is far more likely to happen than putin dying and russia and ukraine ending the conflict from now till mid December.
So I am betting that we drop lower than we are now.
The more you explain, the worse it gets.
j
nope you are choking as this is a very short post from you
Ok.. you got me cornered.
I must admit it.
my analysis is the fed is not fighting inflation by raising rates
they are not fighting inflation for the reasons i gave above.
they are printing more than 1 trillion dollars extra with the raises that are due.
Yes.. they are speaking out of both sides of their mouths..... and there is a bit of a battle to actually give benefits locally, and then punishing the rest of the world because 1) the rest of the world is already used to the dollar as the reserve currency and 2) the dollar milk-shake theory is well into play, and other currencies are going to be continuing to invest into the dollar more, relatively speaking, than they are into various foreign currencies, because the dollar is the least weak of the shitty currencies.
Even though all of these factors are at play, it is not obious that bitcoin is goin gto play along in an exact correlated way..
So even if bitcoin is correlated in the short term, there are likely going to continue to be periods in which bitcoin continues to break apart from various other asset classes by either NOT going down as much as the other asset classes or by having short periods of over performance.
And surely , bitcoin has one of the advantages of being a new and emergent asset class in its earliest of adoption phases, but it also has advantages in terms of being a superior asset class as compared with any other asset class currently in existence.
I am not denying the power of owning actual property, so long as your property rights are appreciated, but property has some disadvantages in terms of both not being very liquid and also having had been pumped for so many years by the dollar pumping... so in that sense various property assets have been way more effected by the ongoing existence of free debt than bitcoin, including that bitcoin has an advantage of being personally possessed and even obscured in regards to its location or even knowing the amount that any of us might own.
You and I are not working with different facts, Philip, but it continues to appear to me that you are overly willing to accept that the dollar is goingt to be able to suistain itself relative to bitcoin, and I continue to have a decent amount of skepticism regarding what appears to be your ongoing underinvestment in bitcoin, even though you seem to continue to make the same mistake of believing the fact that you mine bitcoin is an adequate amount of exposure that justifies you holding less bitcoin than what I believe that you should be holding.. even though your holding level continues to be in your complete discretion and you have admitted to having had underinvested into bitcoin in the past, but you are still defaulting to the same behaviors(mistakes) of your earlier years, and you are likely going to continue to get bitten in the ass by your ongoing tendencies to be scared of bitcoin when the price is down...and your ongoing tendencies to get caught up with the trend and then employing tactics that cause you to do the opposite of what you should be doing... so when the BTC price goes down you should be buying and holding.. but instead you are buying too little and even engaging in some selling.. .. so sucks to be you.. and I don't want to even get into analyzing all of the ways that you are doing the opposite of what you should be doing.. because I do not know too many details beyond some of the general pieces of information that you have provided.
and.. sure of course in the end it is up to you.. even when you have a tendency to overly present your likely wrong thesis (and wrong risk mitigation) in these here parts.
that bull has an inflationary ring on its nose so no run at all.
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Proudhon would probably post this one here.
Channeling of proudhon is not a good sign.
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